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PA-Sen: Sestak Takes the Lead

by: James L.

Fri May 28, 2010 at 2:27 PM EDT


Research 2000 for Daily Kos (5/24-26, likely voters, 5/10-12 in parens):

Joe Sestak (D): 43 (40)
Pat Toomey (R): 40 (45)
Undecided: 17 (15)
(MoE: ±4%)

A nice post-primary bounce for Sestak here, whose favorables have risen to 48-30 (up from 39-26), compared to Toomey's 47-42. A key finding here is that Sestak draws Toomey to a 35-35 tie among independents, whose votes will be the key battleground in the fall. Fueling Sestak's rise is an uptick in support in Philly and its suburbs, and in Pittsburgh, where he now has a four-point lead (up from a six-point deficit a few weeks ago).

And, just because I'm curious to hear what you think, does anyone else agree with me that the breathless media hype surrounding the "Sestak job offer!!" is one of the most overblown stories in recent memory from a horserace perspective?

James L. :: PA-Sen: Sestak Takes the Lead
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Yeah, it's a huge waste of time.
And the White House's handling of it has been terrible; it'd have been a one-day story if they had just been upfront.  Everybody does it, everybody knows it, there's a zillion past examples of it.

I agree the WH should've been out in front of this earlier
I understand why this wouldn't have been right at the top of their list though since it's about the biggest nonscandal in recent memory.

[ Parent ]
I can't believe the coverage the job offer "scandal" is getting
It's really ridiculous. Even if the administration had flat out offered Sestak an administration position to drop out of the Senate race, it would not be illegal. I'm not surprised that the "offer" (if you can even call it that) consisted of President Clinton having a warm talk with Sestak about serving on an executive board while continuing to be a congressman.

The idea that they would want to kick out Ray Mabus after a few weeks of being Navy secretary and risk a House seat in a swing district is just ludicrous.

These wild-eyed conspiracy theorists (I'm casting a side eye in your direction, Darrel Issa) don't understand this and are just looking for a reason to demand special prosecutors and talk about Watergate.

Where were these people when Bush/Cheney were committing crimes that actually qualified as impeachable offenses?


Anyone
know if Issa and Toomey were best friends when Toomey was in the house? Because he's taken an very unusual interest to this race.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Issa is a hatchet man
He's been after the President since day one. This is just another one of his would-be scandals.

[ Parent ]
Issa
Which is really weird considering his faux moderate image.

29/D/Male/NY-01

[ Parent ]
Agree with the crowd, it's a non-issue to voters, only Beltway pundits care. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I bet most voters would say
"Isnt that what they all do?"  Yup, only pundits care.

[ Parent ]
Sestak issue is self-inflicted...
If both sides had came out sooner, this would not be a big deal.  The fact is that the administration should have said we offered him an unpaid position months ago.  Now everyone is skeptical and it will continue to be talked about as this story seems awful simple that it should have been answered before.  The Obama administration is slowly turning into Bush II when it comes to public relations it appears.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

Deeds, Pt. 2?
Not that I think Sestak will be as inept as Deeds was, mind you, but I remember Deeds got a bounce in the polls from a somewhat unexpected win in the VA-Gov primary that turned out to be illusory.

The election made him better known than McDonnell in many circles, in the same way Sestak might now have higher name rec than Toomey does.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03


Toomey is no Bob McDonnell
And Pennsylvania is no Virginia. Hell, Sestak is no Creigh Deeds. But, yeah, it could be a bounce that fades. Still very confident of a hold here once eveything shakes out.

[ Parent ]
And in this poll
Sestak has double the number of "no opinion" responders 22-11 percent.

[ Parent ]
Agree on the first two
But you wouldn't know Sestak was no Creigh Deeds from the way he's handled this job offer thing (although I agree this "scandal" is a whole lot of nothing).  

[ Parent ]
Deeds was NOT better known than McDonnell in ANY circles......
The primary didn't help Deeds vis-a-vis McDonnell on name rec.

McDonnell was the sitting Attorney General in a state with only 3 elected at-large state government offices (not counting U.S. Senate).  He'd beaten Deeds in 2005 for that job.  And McDonnell, like Deeds, was in the state legislature before that.

McDonnell was better known than Deeds even AFTER the primary.

It's been a long time since last November's election, and I still don't think many people know who Creigh Deeds is!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Really?
"The primary didn't help Deeds vis-a-vis McDonnell on name rec."

It didn't? I bet the name rec gap, even if McDonnell was better known (which isn't as obvious as you might think; he was scarcely talked about for months there where the competing Dem contenders monopolized the spotlight)  was a lot smaller between the two men after the primaries, or even during the runup to the primary, than it was before.  

It's not like the AG is normally that high profile an office in many states. If McDonnell had more of a record of sticking his nose everywhere he could, Dems might have been more able to use that against him.  

I guess my general point is that Sestak's in the news and Toomey largely hasn't been, and this might be exerting a pull on the polls that will disappear.  


36, M, Democrat, MD-03


[ Parent ]
Obama also got a bounce from beating Hillary Clinton
...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
To extend my previous comment
in the other thread

I'm skeptical of the party breakdown for this 2010 election

      R2K poll   CNN '08 exit   CNN '06 exit   CNN '04 exit

D       47%           44            43             41
R       39%           37            38             39
I       14%           18            19             20

I'm having trouble believing that the D portion of the vote will increase over '08 (at th expense of Is)- though am also surprised that the proportion of R voters has been so stable.

Nevertheless the trend is good, and I don't see the silly unpaid job flap posing a roadblock. The unknown is whether Sestak's surge is temporary, based on publicity from the primary.


Very skeptical...
That sample is very optimistic to say the least.  The Philadelphia machine does not have a dog in this race.  Anyone who expects 2008 Philadelphia turnout or even 2008 suburban Democratic turnout in places like Chester is full of it.  In two of the counties, Bucks and Delaware, the Republicans have actually regained ground in registration since last year.

Another thing is that Obama's approval rating has not been in positive territory in any non-R2000 poll in Pennsylvania in a long time.  While I doubt it is at 42 percent where Rasmussen had it, I also doubt it is at 48 percent.  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


[ Parent ]
Also
That would mean his approval in PA is at or lower than his national average.

[ Parent ]
The other reason that I can't see
the job flap hurting Sestak is that he turned it down; fundamentally, if you want to frame it as a bribe, he showed he couldn't be bribed.  It might make the White House look bad, but not him.

I agree with this
As for whether this is a scandal or not:

Every administration does this, but there's been some talk on DailyKos that a "plain reading" of the statute could be a legal problem for the Obama Administration - depending on the facts, of course. But I sure can't get worked up over it.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
He coulda done better with it
The fact that he opened his mouth about it once- and now him and the White House has been refusing to answer questions- makes it look like something did happen, whether it did or not.  

[ Parent ]

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