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SSP Daily Digest: 5/27 (Morning Edition)

by: James L.

Thu May 27, 2010 at 8:09 AM EDT


  • NV-Sen: Chicken Lady, meet Couch Lady? Does Tea Party fave Sharron Angle have a Scientology problem? It looks like Angle scrubbed a passage from her campaign website about how she, along with actresses Kelly Preston and Jenna Elfman, lobbied John Ensign to sponsor legislation prohibiting school employees from requiring students to take psychotropic drugs. Preston and Elfman are noted Scientologists, and psychotropic drugs are considered to be anathema to that, uh, belief system. Another curious nugget is Sue Lowden's attacks on Angle for "her support in 2003 of a drug-treatment program for inmates that included saunas and massages as treatment". It's amazing how this race has transformed itself from one of the most depressing to one of the most amusing.
  • MI-Gov: Hotline OnCall sits down for an entertaining interview with Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero, the populist progressive choice in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. Calling himself a "FDR-Kennedy-Truman-Obama Democrat" and the candidate most in-touch with average angry voter, Bernero is blasting his opponent, House Speaker Andy Dillon, as the "Speaker of the Mess".
  • SC-Gov: Dick Cheney is showing his lovable mug in South Carolina, issuing an endorsement for Rep. Gresham Barrett, who was the House equivalent of Some Dude for most of us before he announced his gubernatorial campaign. One of Barrett's opponents, state AG Henry McMaster, used the news as an opportunity to remind voters of Barrett's vote for the Cheney-backed TARP legislation.
  • AL-05: If you want the endorsement of the freakshow Minuteman Project and its founder, Jim Gilchrist, be prepared to cut a fat check to the Election Impact Group, a political firm run by a close associate of Gilchrist. Ben Smith takes a thorough look at the financial strings attached to a Gilchrist endorsement, specifically honing in Republican Mo Brooks, who lobbied for a Gilchrist endorsement but was rebuffed after he refused to hire the Impact Group. Five months later, Gilchrist endorsed turncoat Rep. Parker Griffith instead... just two weeks after Griffith paid $6500 to the Gilchrist-connected firm. Sleazy stuff, all around.
  • CA-11: David Harmer, a demi-hero among Republicans for his decent performance against John Garamendi in the CA-10 special election last year, says that he is "disgusted" by healthcare reform, stimulus packages, and bailouts. The only problem? Harmer previously worked for Washington Mutual, which was acquired by JPMorgan Chase, who in turn received $25 billion in TARP funds. JPMorgan Chase then sent Harmer out the door with a $160,000 bonus and severance package.
  • ID-01: Raul Labrador proudly boasts that he's been called one of the "most extreme conservatives in the legislature". I love this guy.
  • KS-03: The Kansas City Star hears word that physician and teabagger Milton Wolfe -- a cousin of Barack Obama -- may run in the Republican primary for the seat of retiring Dem Rep. Dennis Moore. If he does, he'll certainly turn the heads of a few national media types.
  • SC-01: National Research Inc for the Club for Growth (5/23-24, likely voters):

    Tim Scott (R): 30
    Carroll "Tumpy" Campbell III (R): 10
    Paul Thurmond (R): 9
    Clark Parker (R): 9
    Larry Kobrovsky (R): 8
    W. Stovall White (R): 6
    Mark Lutz (R): 4
    Others: 4
    (MoE: ±5.7%)

    For the sake of completeness (this is Swing State Project, after all), a poll from early April that we missed showed Tumpy in the lead. The poll, commissioned by ex-Charleston County School Board member Larry Kobrovsky and taken by Victory Communications, had Tumpy with 18%, the Club for Growth-backed Scott at 16%, and Kobrovsky at 10%.

  • SC-05: Public Opinion Strategies for Mick Mulvaney (5/17-18, likely voters, October in parens):

    John Spratt (D-inc): 43 (48)
    Mick Mulvaney (R): 41 (35)
    (MoE: ±5.3%)
  • Twitter: As of this writing, SSP is only ten followers shy of a cool 2000 on Twitter. Who will step up to push us over the top? Begging is my business.
  • James L. :: SSP Daily Digest: 5/27 (Morning Edition)
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    Oh noes!!!!!
    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    This is vewy vewy sewious.  Russ Feingold is in big big twubble against former Miami Vice star Ron Johnson - oh wait that was Don Johnson!!!  Anyway, Scotty Wasmussen told me so, so it must be twue!!!

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    Good ole Rasmussen
    I'm not too concerned about this poll.  While I don't believe Feingold will be heavily reelected, he will most likely get reelected with a modest margin of around 8-10%.


    40, male, Democrat, NC-04

    [ Parent ]
    Another joke poll
    I guess Scott has decided to go all the way in for his party this time around.

    What kind of GOP turnout is he projecting?
    "Voters not affiliated with either party give the edge to the Democrat."  

    [ Parent ]
    Maybe andyroo can tell us what kind of turnout to expect


    [ Parent ]
    NV-Sen
    Lets look at the candidates...

    Teabagger Party - Potential Felon
    Republican Party - Chicken Lady or Couch Lady
    Democratic Party - Incompetent Senate Leader

    You cannot make this stuff up.


    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


    Pick your poison
    as they say. God I wish Schumer was majority leader...

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    Following November
    You might just get your wish granted.  You know what they say though...be careful what you wish for.  For all we know, Schumer might only have 51 or 52 seats with which to get things done.  

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    [ Parent ]
    Schumer v. Reid
    Schumer might be more competent with 51 or 52 seats.  It really depends on whose elected.  

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    My worry is the Dems wont be able to do shit until they get to 60 again
    or lose the majority.  The GOP Senate clearly has zero interest in ever working with us unless they completely gut every piece of legislation and essentially make it their own.  They'll filibuster everything and I doubt even Schumer is going to be able to get much done with 52 or 51.  Not unless he wants to completely piss off the base, which just puts in the same predicament that the GOP is currently in.  (Ive decided not to blame McConnel so much as the tea-bagger base for filibustering.)

    [ Parent ]
    Unless they vote to eliminate the filibuster
    I doubt that'll happen, but it is at least a possibility.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    amazing race in NV
    I never would have thought Reid had a chance to be re-elected, but he is definitely in the game against this crowd.

    a growther leads in the polls for SC-01
    The Dems better put forward a top-tier candidate. I don't care if it's supposed to be a Republican year, the Dems have no excuse not to try. Lots of people who usually vote Republican will be turned off by a growther.

    26, male, Dem, NJ-12

    The filing deadline in South Carolina was March 30th...))


    [ Parent ]
    in that case
    how good are the Dem candidates?

    26, male, Dem, NJ-12

    [ Parent ]
    Not especially
    The strongest is, probably, Robert Burton, but if i would handicap this race i wouldn't give him more then 5% chances of victory..

    [ Parent ]
    Yep, unless he slept with Will Folks...
    Tim Scott will be the new congressman from the 1st District. As an African-American, he will be the 'cover boy' for the GOP the Wednesday after the election.

     


    [ Parent ]
    If he wins, Allen West will join him
    n/t

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Thurmond at 9%?
    I wonder how much credibility this poll has.  It was commisioned by The Club for Growth and they have backed Tim Scott.  It shows Paul Thurmond at 9%, 21% behind Scott.  Thurmond is the son of Strom Thurmond who was a governor of South Carolina and represented it in the United States Senate.  He also is a current Charleston County Councilman serving as Vice Chairman of the Council (like current State Rep. Scott was and Scott was Chairman of the body)and has picked up an impressive array of endorsements across the district.  Carroll "Tumpy" Campbell is also running for the seat and his father was governor of South Carolina but Campbell seems to be lacking in terms of endorsements and general buzz.  Why do you think Thurmond is polling poorly?

    [ Parent ]
    Things are going perfectly
    Duffman,

    I can't wait for June 22nd to so I know who I'll be running against.

    Are you a South Carolinian and do you know the geography of the district?

    There are lots of things happening down here that you just can't see unless you are living it.

    Respectfully,

    Colonel Robert D. Burton



    [ Parent ]
    Great article on Sharron Angle on National Review Online
    Of all places. Jim Geraghty details more crazy stuff. The scientology stuff is the tip of the iceberg. Let's put it this way: the title of the article is "The Anti-Beer Libertarian"

    http://article.nationalreview....

    If she wins the nomination, Reid will wipe the floor with her.

    (btw: in his regular Campaign Spot, Geraghty gives a shout out to two SSP commentators from the Simmons thread).  


    Link to Geraghty's quote of SSP on Simmons
    [ Parent ]
    I should say "SSP commenters on Simmons"
    To Geraghty's credit, he correctly states "SSP commenters", implicitly making the distinction with the management of this site.  

    [ Parent ]
    I secretly think Geraghty is gopvoter
    I got no proof and am just kidding around. So dont get mad. gopvoter should take it as a compliment.

    But for election analysis from the right Geraghty is a good source to read.  

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    Nope.
    That many people would never read me!

    [ Parent ]
    SC-5 numbers are very disturbing...
    ... Mulvaney isn't even a decent candidate.  With the health issues Spratt is facing, I am getting worried about his one.  

    Well, there's a bunch of factors running against us
    in districts like SC-5.  Here's what I see.

    1.South - The south is the one region of the country that really, REALLY doesn't like Barack Obama or the congressional democratic leadership.  As such, I think most house seats in the South are in inherently more danger than those in the northeast/midwest/west.

    2.Rural - Despite some early evidence that the suburban seats are in just as much if not more trouble, I still think that due to factors such as education level and overall liberal-ness (aka PVI and self-identified liberal/moderate/conservative %) that the rural areas are going to be ground zero for the republican wave in November.  SC-5 is a mostly rural district.  So that's strike two.  Again, you might disagree with this going by special election/local election results over the past 18 months, but in a truly national election like 2010, where you have federal races on the ballot as well as state and district ones, I'm sticking to the rule of rural = bad for dems.

    3.long running incumbent - This is usually an advantage, but we're already seeing that incumbents of all stripes are struggling both in primaries and in polling so far.  Spratt's been in there a long time, which makes him an easy target for tying him to Washington/big bad government rah-rah-rah, etc.

    4.top of the ticket - I'm a bit uncertain about this since some polls are showing the governor's and senate races in SC to be closer than anticipated, but my hunch is that (barring scandals or other surprises) that republicans Jim Demint and, most likely Nikki Haley, will roll to strong wins in the federal races, meaning that they will certainly carry SC-5 by somewhere between 10-20 points.  Spratt is going to have a tougher time than normal convincing these Demint/Haley republicans to cross over and vote for him in this environment.

    Other seats that are looking bleak due to these factors are TX-17, MS-1, AL-2 (though Bright is arguably a VERY strong candidate), FL-2, and VA-5.  There are many others too, like TN-8, AR-1, and LA-3, but those seats are different because those are open seat races, which by nature will usually be tough, hard fought contests.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


    [ Parent ]
    In which he still leads
    For an R+7 seat in the south I'll take it.

    [ Parent ]
    If you were a Republican
    You'd be pretty happy with a poll like that. And so would I!

    [ Parent ]
    I'd be even happier
    With their other polls showing the likes of Boccieri, Driehaus and others being blown away in what should be more friendly territory. As I said, on balance I'll take it.

    [ Parent ]
    We don't know yet
    This may be a simple case of the people going "We don't like long term incumbents." I think he's going to win in the end.  

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

    [ Parent ]
    In a year like this? I dont think so
    Look at the Democrats who are trailing in much more Democratic districts.  If Spratt was going to lose, he would be trailing in GOP polls.  

    [ Parent ]
    The seat is gone
    if it doesn't happen this year, it will happen in 2012, when Spratt retires. No sense worrying about it.

    [ Parent ]
    Not so fast my friend.
    Not that I know much about the district, but I count six Dem state senators in the district to four Republicans.  That includes 2010 gubernatorial candidate Vince Sheheen, who according to one poll is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination and may thereby gain significant name recognition.  2012 may be a very different year, and Obama took 46% here in 2008.  We've got a shot.

    Gene Taylor's seat - gone when he retires.  This one, I wouldn't be so quick to say that.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    [ Parent ]
    Could he lose this year?
    His opponent out raised him in the 1st quarter, but in the last reporting period, Taylor seems to have stepped it up. If he makes it this year, he is probably the DEm frontrunner for gov in 2011.

    [ Parent ]
    I think Taylor will win and will probably
    top 60%.  Interesting thought about Governor.  If he wanted that, though, I would've thought he'd have already gone for it given his long career.  If he ran, I think he would win the general.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    Not that good
    He has a credible opponent this time around. I think it will be close. I think it would be a close race between him and Bryant.  

    [ Parent ]
    I figured the Democrats' best choice for Governor
    would be AG Jim Hood, the sole remaining statewide elected official. There's a big difference between winning one heavily-Republican district that you've built up decades of goodwill in and winning statewide.

    [ Parent ]
    But with only 4 districts in MS
    winning that district becomes huge.  He runs up big numbers there and in the VRA Delta district, and it's lights out for the Republican.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    GA-Gov: Barnes dominating Dem Primary
    http://www.wsbtv.com/news/2368...

    Like the article says, it may be/is inflated by Barnes' TV presence, but it would be nice to avoid a runoff and let Barnes run positive ads while the Republicans destroy each other in their own runoff.

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


    Not Really
    I believe Barnes has lead every Primary poll since he announced, though certainly not with Baker in single digits. Still, he's lead by a large amount.

    Also, Poythress has been on the air all over the state as well, and he's only at 1%.

    I mean, yeah that's a large margin, but it's really nothing new. No one I know has expected a run-off. I guess maybe when Barnes and Baker first announced, but in the past 8 months or so it's become clear that Barnes is the top choice.

    We're fortunate to have a strong group of mainstream Conservative Democrats running for Governor. I really believe any of the four could win the General. It's rare to have that many candidates of such great quality in one race. It's just unfortunate that we could not have convinced three of them to switch races.

    It's tough to make a decision, and I know I've switched candidates a few times already, but I think it's time we rally behind Barnes. Having met him in person twice, and having spoken with many of his team, he's got everything in place for the General.

    I hope Baker, Porter, and Poythress all decide to stay active in the party and run for office again later. Any of them would make a great candidate against Saxby.


    [ Parent ]
    I meant that's the largest margin he's had.
    And I think it's been awhile (if ever) since Barnes has been outside of the runoff zone.

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    [ Parent ]
    GA-12
    Clyburn knows better than this from a political standpoint.

    http://www.politico.com/news/s...

    I understand the part about him wanting to talk up HCR, but if his intention is not to hurt Barrow, why not wait until after the Primary?

    He can say he's endorsing Barrow all he wants, but it seems like the opposite.

    Georgia's not as easy to peg as it seems. Just because Bishop and Barrow's seat went for Obama does not mean they're liberal districts.

    Ah well, I guess the pro-Thomas crowd can get excited now, maybe she'll hit 15%.


    I'm with you on this...
    ... I was very puzzled by it.  

    [ Parent ]
    Puzzling...
    Why in the world is he doing this except to help Barrow's primary challenger?

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]

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