Last January, I asserted that, despite President Obama’s floundering approval rating and even stronger discontent with Congressional Democrats, political analysts were overestimating the Republican Party’s hand in re-taking control of the U.S. Senate. I projected Democrats would lose only two seats, bringing them to 58-42 control over the body. This, of course, was prior to Sen. Scott Brown’s stunning upset over Attorney General Martha Coakley in the Massachusetts special election; a win which robbed Democrats of their Senate super majority. My suspicion was, while Democrats were hardly in the best of shape, the GOP just wasn’t fielding strong-enough candidates to actually defeat some of these fading Dem incumbents.
That is no longer the case.
While I continue to believe Republicans don’t have the candidates to re-take the Senate, I do suspect they have the strength to knock off more than just one or two incumbents. President Obama’s approval is below 50% and Harry Reid’s health care reform bill is still unpopular, months after its passage. Though I don’t believe November will be a catastrophic month for Democrats, I do think they’re in for a modest thumping, and thus, I am now projecting a Democratic hold of the Senate by a margin of only 53-47.
To explain my thinking in a more detailed fashion, it’s necessary to delve into a few specific races which have evolved in the past months. After all, what is causing much of the general ineptness among Democrats is not necessarily Obama-related, but rather stemmed from local problems regarding the candidates themselves.
Here are the five races which have most changed in ranking since my projections back in January:
California – Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) vs. fmr. Rep. Tom Campbell fmr. Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R)
January projection: Likely Dem
Current projection: Toss-up
First off, with all due respect to my Tea Party readers, Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, who typically polls double-digits behind his better-known GOP challengers, doesn’t have the slightest chance at winning the Republican nomination; hence, I’ve left him from the match-up. Even in January, Boxer looked a bit vulnerable, but nearly all polling ever since has shown a strikingly-competitive race, whether it’s against the centrist Campbell or outsider Fiorina. Boxer gets the leg-up, if solely on the basis of the state’s overwhelming Dem registration, but if Boxer starts bleeding moderate Independents and conservative Democrats, she’s in a whole heap of trouble. Plus, should the GOP nominate Fiorina, they’ve got a candidate with the ability to self-fund, hence relieving national Republicans of pumping funds into a state as expansive and expensive as California.
Delaware – Rep. Mike Castle (R) vs. New Castle County Executive Chris Coons (D)
January projection: Toss-up
Current projection: Likely GOP
Just a few months back, political analysts were salivating over what looked to be one of the hottest midterm races of 2010: the popular GOP Congressman Mike Castle vs. the equally-popular Democratic Attorney General Beau Biden. Alas, Biden stunned political junkies and Delaware Democrats alike when he opted to pass on the race, all but assuring Castle a huge pick-up in a hugely-Democratic state. State Dems settled on the lesser-known Chris Coons for the nomination. On paper, Coons may seem to have an advantage with the state’s massive Democratic registration, but Castle is no ordinary GOP-er; he’s a moderate figure, beloved statewide by figures on both the left and right. Castle could surely run up a 30-35% score among members of Coons’ party, especially since the lack of a substantive primary challenge has allowed the Republican to remain in his centrist position.
Indiana – Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) vs. fmr. Sen. Dan Coats (R)
January projection: Likely Dem
Current projection: Toss-up
After Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh dropped the mother of all bombshells with his decision not to run for re-election, Republicans quickly began to celebrate over the likelihood of picking up this conservative-leaning state. For my money, however, such a party was premature. Democrats are fielding a strong, moderate candidate here in Ellsworth, while Republicans have a less exciting recruit in fmr. Sen. Coats, who barely squeaked by in the state’s recent GOP primary. The Tea Party crowd isn’t especially keen on the uber-establishment Coats, and if they stay home, Ellsworth squeaks out a victory.
Kentucky – Attorney General Jack Conway (D) vs. eye surgeon Rand Paul (R)
January projection: Likely GOP
Current projection: Toss-up
Here’s one of the very few, if perhaps only, cases where a Democrat could pick up a GOP-held Senate seat. Though Paul practically destroyed his better-known, establishment-supported opponent in the recent Kentucky GOP primary, he’s since made a number of controversial statements, among them ones regarding the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and President Obama’s handling of the BP crisis, which all but assure Paul won’t be walking away handily in this overwhelming-conservative state. Conway is a very strong recruit for the Dems – stronger than his primary opponent, ’04 nominee Dan Mongiardo – and should perform well among Independents who don’t aspire to the Tea Party movement. For now, edge to Conway.
Louisiana – Sen. David Vitter (R) vs. Rep. Charlie Melancon (D)
January projection: Lean GOP
Current projection: Safe GOP
For about fifteen minutes, national Dems thought they’d scored a major recruit in Melancon, a relatively-popular and well-known Democratic Congressman, to compete against the seemingly-vulnerable Sen. Vitter, once embroiled in a hot infidelity scandal. Alas, recent polling has shown Vitter all but trouncing Melancon, safely removing this seat from potential Dem pick-up territory. Melancon can run as centrist and appealing a campaign as he wants, but it looks like Louisiana folks have forgiven their incumbent Senator.
Here is my complete run-down of each upcoming Senate race. In most of the “Safe Dem” and “Safe GOP” races, there are no candidates listed for the losing party. In some cases, this is because no candidates have been fielded for the nomination, and in others, there are several contenders who have about as much name recognition as me.
Safe Dem (>20% victory) :
Hawaii – Sen. Daniel Inouye > GOP nominee (?)
Maryland – Sen. Barbara Mikulski > GOP nominee (?)
New York – Sen. Charles Schumer > GOP nominee (?)
Oregon – Sen. Ron Wyden > GOP nominee (?)
Vermont – Sen. Patrick Leahy > GOP nominee (?)
Likely Dem (10-20% victory):
New York – Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand > GOP nominee (?)
Wisconsin – Sen. Russ Feingold > GOP nominee (?)
Lean Dem (5-10% victory):
Connecticut – Attorney General Richard Blumenthal > WWE CEO Linda McMahon
Washington – Sen. Patty Murray > fmr. State Sen. Dino Rossi
Toss-up:
California – Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) > fmr. Rep. Tom Campbell or fmr. Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R)
Colorado – fmr. Lt. Gov. Jane Norton or District Attorney Ken Weld (R) > Sen. Michael Bennett or fmr. House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D)
Florida – fmr. House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) > Gov. Charlie Crist (I) or Rep. Kendrick Meek (D)
Indiana – Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) > fmr. Sen. Dan Coats (R)
Kentucky – Attorney General Jack Conway (D) > eye surgeon Rand Paul (R)
Missouri – Rep. Roy Blunt (R) > Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D)
Nevada – Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, State GOP Chairwoman Sue Lowden, or Attorney Danny Tarkanian (R) > Sen. Harry Reid (D)
Ohio – fmr. Rep. Rob Portman (R) > Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D)
Pennsylvania – fmr. Rep. Pat Toomey (R) > Rep. Joe Sestak (D)
Lean GOP (5-10% victory):
Illinois – Rep. Mark Kirk > State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias
New Hampshire – Attorney General Kelly Ayotte > Rep. Paul Hodes
North Carolina – Sen. Richard Burr > fmr. State Sen. Cal Cunningham or Secretary of State Elaine Marshall
Likely GOP (10-20% victory):
Arkansas – fmr. Rep. John Boozman > Sen. Blanche Lincoln or Lt. Gov. Bill Halter
Arizona – radio host JD Hayworth or Sen. John McCain > businessman Rodney Glassman
Delaware – Rep. Mike Castle > New Haven County Executive Chris Coons
Iowa – Sen. Chuck Grassley > Attorney Roxanne Conlin
Safe GOP (>20% victory):
Alabama – Sen. Richard Shelby > Dem nominee (?)
Alaska – Sen. Lisa Murkowski > Dem nominee (?)
Georgia – Sen. Johnny Isakson > Dem nominee (?)
Idaho – Sen. Mike Crapo > Dem nominee (?)
Louisiana – Sen. David Vitter > Rep. Charlie Melancon
Kansas – Rep. Jerry Moran or Rep. Todd Tihart > Dem nominee (?)
North Dakota – Gov. John Hoeven > Dem nominee (?)
Oklahoma – Sen. Tom Coburn > Dem nominee (?)
South Carolina – Sen. Jim DeMint > Dem nominee (?)
South Dakota – Sen. John Thune > Dem nominee (?)
Utah – businessman Tim Bridgewater or Attorney Mike Lee > Dem nominee (?)
When I reviewed your list, it looks like you final result would be 53-47.
Right now, the Dems have a 59-41 advantage.
Dem pickup 1 seat: Kentucky.
Rep pickup 7 seats: Colorado, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Arkansas, Nevada, Delaware and North Dakota.
This would be a net 6 seats that would bring the number to 53-47.
I think they win ND, AK and DE. Though Coons could make it close and Boozman may yet flatter to deceive.
They have a small edge in NC, KY, IN, NH, MO and NV. Any of these could still move into the light.
OH, IL and PA are total tossups. I’d take a guess they win one of them.
I think Hispanic turnout will save Bennet. Boxer will be fine for similar reasons. Cannot see CT or WA being a problem despite recent developments. I think that is 53-47, correct? That majority more likely to get bigger than smaller IMO.
I’d move CA from tossup to lean Dem. Boxer is actually pulling away in the last few polls.
I’d move IL to tossup……I think it’s been a tossup all along, and I don’t think Broadway Bank has changed that yet. Polling has been very consistent to establish that Illinois voters really don’t want to vote for Kirk, they want to vote Democrat, but they have some doubts about Alexi. Indeed, Broadway hasn’t hurt him as much as I feared it would (or hoped it would in case we HAVE to be able to convince him to drop out), people are still wait-and-see.
And I’d move Gillibrand to SAFE. With Giuliani and Pataki out, no one else has ANY chance to beat her.
at the top by calling CA as a toss up. I won’t say that Boxer is completely safe (unless DeVore somehow gets the GOP nomination, which is highly unlikely). You must not live in or anywhere CA. First off, the state has a general Democratic lean nowadays. For a Repub to win there has to be a weak Democratic candidate or a very strong GOP candidate. Barbara Boxer is no Martha Coakley; she campaigns hard and always wins somehow, usually by larger than expected margins. Both GOP candidates are flawed; Tom Campbell seems to be the stronger general election candidate but is less likely to win the nomination because he is running out of money and is not sufficiently hard-line on social issues (teh gayz, guns, and fetal supremacy). Carly Failorina is running to his right but hopes to pick up some independents because she is a woman and an “outsider”. She is so outside that she only votes about half the time and has a suspiciously moderate past. Her great claim to fame is her success as a businesswoman, but she was fired from her company and is hated or distrusted by the Silicon Valley types who shoule be her base.
I would rate CA Sen as Leans Dem vs Campbell, Likely Dem against Carly and Safe Dem against DeVo. I think Carly will win the primary so Likely Dem Hold.
It’s pretty likely that North Dakota, Delaware, and probably Arkansas are gone, and I also am somewhat dismayed by Dem prospects in Illinois. But we are very solid and could likely flip Kentucky, Ohio, Missouri, and (as Kelly Ayotte gets better known) New Hampshire simply because the Repubs are hitching their wagon to candidates that are way out on the fringe or are carrying piles of Bush baggage. And we will hold Nevada and Pennsylvania for the same reasons. Also, I really don’t understand your pessimism with regard to Barbara Boxer, Patty Murray, or Blumenthal–do you really think any of these will be that close? You are reading too many Rasmussen polls. If Charlie Crist wins and caucuses with the Dems, I think that 57-43 will be much nearer the mark.
CA-Sen: I could surely see myself moving this to Lean Dem (perhaps even Likely Dem, if Fiorina is a gaffe-machine on the campaign trail), but I wanna see the Field Poll before doing so. It looks like Boxer’s up high single-digits right now, which probably means she’s really up by like 10%. Still…I think she’s very vulnerable, and there’s no better illustration of that than President Obama needing to (twice) stump for her. Also, I’m in the minority who believes Fiorina’s the stronger nominee than Campbell.
CT-Sen: I don’t think Blumenthal’s internals, nor the Ras numbers, are necessarily on-the-money. My suspicion is he’s up by about 10%, and she’s leading with Independents. It’s all about whether a) he’s still apologizing about Vietnam come the fall and b) McMahon can quell any and all WWE controversies early enough. They’re both loaded with baggage. Oh, and I’m about 99.9% certain Lieberman will back McMahon, which might help with the 30% of Dems who still like the guy.
IL-Sen: Definitely could move back into Dems’ favor, but with the Giannoulias internals even showing this a dead heat, I suspect we might have Alexander/Moseley-Braun all over again. If Jesse Jackson Jr. were to actually endorse Kirk, I think that’d be a monstrous blow to the Dems here. Plus, Pat Quinn’s hardly a spectacular Gubernatorial nominee.
NY-Sen: I’m thisclose to moving Gillibrand into Safe Dem, especially in the wake of Andrew Cuomo’s official entry, but I think a lot of it also depends on the GOP nominee. She’d obliterate the pathetic Joe DioGuardi, but Bruce Blakeman and David Malpass might be moderate enough for conservaDems and Indies to have second thoughts about her. Right now, I think she wins by about 15-18%.
WA-Sen: We’ll have to see how Dino Rossi’s roll-out is. I could see him getting a modest bump after tomorrow’s announcement, it’s just a matter of whether he can maintain that. I imagine Murray squeaks it out by 5% or so, but here’s a guy who’s come close statewide twice before.
Even in the rural areas, where I live and work, people are starting to warm up to Sestak as they begin to to know him. Toomey isn’t seen in the best of lights, especially among conservative Democrats who have been leaning Republican last couple of election cycles. Sestak will start pulling away in the next couple of months.
That you have Kentucky as our only pickup. I cannot fathom a situation in which Kentucky goes our way but Ohio, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, and New Hampshire all end up in the red column. You have to figure that Ohio and Missouri at the very least would go blue before Kentucky, unless you are operating under the assumption that Rand Paul will totally self-destruct before election day (which I’m not even sure is possible in a solidly red state like KY)
I have the Republicans picking up a net of 4.5 seats, 7 total pickups, negated somewhat by 2 democratic pickups and 1 independent pickup.
In CO, there is no candidate named Ken Weld, it’s Ken Buck of Weld County.
In OR, the Republican nominee is not a question mark, it’s a law professor named Jim Huffman.
In DE, Chris Coons is the executive of New Castle County (not New Haven County in Connecticut).
As for Jesse Jackson, I have trouble believing he won’t wake up and smell the coffee in the end, even if he wants to run for Senate in 2016. Any moron with half a brain could tell that endorsing the Republican doesn’t make it easier to win the Democratic nomination the next time, and if Kirk runs for re-election in 2016, Jackson will have to run against someone he endorsed.
I think Democrats have a stronger advantage than the Republicans due to one big factor that has not shown itself quite yet: organization.
I read this article discussing how Republicans are not as organized as the Democrats. You guys should see Obama’s website. They were discussing campaign strategies there and they even have phonebanking up (which is too early in my opinion but at least it shows they’re working hard.) We also have those updated voter lists from all the campaign work Obama did with contacting and registering new voters.
The organization has not started for the special elections but it definitely will be ready for the general. I think the Democrats’ organization has been pretty quiet now but it will become big soon. Already, there are registering voter events not too far from me. Republicans have been pretty quiet.
The Democrats seem to have the advantage, if recent opinion polls are to be believed. And it looks more likely than not that Bennet will be defending his seat in the general election.
which I hadn’t even considered for a while. It would go:
R’s pick up AR, DE, and ND
D’s pick up KY, MO, and OH
I no longer think it’s crazy optimistic thanks to Rand Paul and, well, the entire Nevada Republican field. Not that I think this is likely, but if there is a strong economic rebound it is one realistic scenario.
Murray 48
Rossi 47
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
Rothenberg moves it to Narrow Advantage Incumbent Party.
http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo…