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As promised, I would make maps of primary election results. I started with the three big contests on May 4th - the Democratic Senate contests in North Carolina and Ohio, and the GOP Senate contest in Indiana.
This diary is a bit lengthy with all the images, so most of them will go over the flip!
But a taste first (Green is Marshall, Orange is Cunningham, and Purple is Lewis):
As you can see, Marshall did well in most parts of the state, with the notable exceptions being the Piedmont Triad, which went strongly for Cunningham. Lewis won four counties, Durham and three others located in GK Butterfield's majority-black district.
More over the flip... |
| More North Carolina:
Marshall, Cunningham, and Lewis' performances statewide:
Of course, as we all know, Marshall only got 36%, less than the 40% needed and the race is going to a runoff. Here is Marshall's performance against the 40% threshold. A red circle indicates a loss of votes against the threshold for Marshall, a green circle indicates a gain. As you can see, those are some mighty big red circles in Forsyth and Guilford Counties of the Triad, accompanied by sizable circles in Durham and Charlotte.
However, I'd still call Marshall the favorite heading into the runoff: Looking at her performance directly against Cunningham, we get the following. Cal ran up the margins in a few counties, but a large part of Marshall falling short of 40% is Lewis' strong draw on the African American vote.
O-H. I-O..(Hey, I can spell Ohio by myself! No love for the Buckeyes here...)
Ohio is a story of regions: Brunner did exceptionally well in the far Northwest, Metro Cincinnati, and the Ohio River counties. Fisher did admirably almost everywhere else, even taking Brunner's home county of Franklin. (Brunner in green, Fisher in orange.)
While you might be tempted to think this looks relatively evenly matched, Fisher cleaned up in his base area in the Northeast. There are two ways to visualize this:
Brunner did very well in the counties she won, but the juggernaut of votes that is Cuyahoga County can't be underestimated in a Democratic contest:
Finally, Ohio's next door neighbor: Indiana.
Dan Coats hobbled to a 40% victory over two people who split the anti-establishment, and it shows. (Coats in orange, Hostettler in green, Stutzman in purple). IN-03 (Souder's open district where Stutzman might run) and IN-08 (Hostettler's former district) are highlighted.
John Hostettler might have been bounced from the Bloody Eighth by a margin of 61-39 in 2006, but GOP primary voters in the district still seem to like him: Hoss' support is VERY regionalized, doing the best in the southwestern corner and dropping off as you progress northeast. Stutzman seemed to have two stronger areas: a stronghold in the 3rd CD, and a belt across the center of the state including Marion County and Columbus.
Coats, again, I think got the benefit of a divided field, something you can easily tell when you compare Coats v. Hoss+Stutz (Green being Coats, Red being the aggregate of Hostettler and Stutzman), as well as the customary pie chart map:
Next edition of the SSP atlas: May 18th. |
