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HI-01 Results Thread

by: James L.

Sat May 22, 2010 at 11:03 PM EDT


1:35am: Populista makes a very good point about this whole "Hawaii loves its incumbents" meme: Hawaii's only ever had 11 federal officeholders total before tonight - and virtually none ever faced a competitive general election.
12:39am: Here's another observation, for what it's worth. George W. Bush's percentage in this district in 2004: 47%. Charles Djou's percentage tonight: 40%.
12:32am: Good as they were in PA-12, Hanabusa's 2nd place tonight shows that the DCCC needs to be careful about treating its own polling as the word of god.
12:29am: Just an observation: Djou's winning percentage (40%) is the lowest of any sitting House member. The next-lowest: Jean Schmidt (45%) and Michele Bachmann (46%). Good company!
12:19am: So, in terms of the raw vote, Djou has 67,274 to Hanabusa's 52,445. Ed Case, the candidate the DCCC thought was the more electable choice, is lagging in third with 47,012 votes.
12:17am: The Associated Press calls it for Charles Djou!
12:12am: Uh, okay, that was fast. 96% of the vote is in, and Republican Charles Djou has won 40% of the vote. Hanabusa has 31%, and Ed Case has 28%.


Voting will officially end in an hour for Hawaii's special election to replace Neil Abercrombie in the House. We'll be using this thread to follow the results as they come in.

RESULTS: Associated Press | Office of Elections | Honolulu Advertiser

James L. :: HI-01 Results Thread
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HI-01 Results Thread | 232 comments
Already tired!
When will we start getting results and when will we be able to call it? Thanks in advance.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

They stop taking ballots in 15 minutes
this is sad since I have a paper to write and the anticipation alone is making it hard for me to concentrate. I don't want to think about how bad it will be when the results actually start coming in!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
I'm
debating on whether or not to stay up. I have breakfast thing I should go to and I need my 8 hours. I think I'll try to tough it though.  Got the starbucks instant blend ready!  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I'm watching the program
of which we are not allowed to speak of on this site....

[ Parent ]
Umm
I'm telling. I'm actually catching up on my SNL I haven't watched it in forever. That Tina Fay cracks me up.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
on the bright side
in November I will be in Japan, and the first polls close at 7:00 AM Japan time, meaning I'll be stuck in class while everyone else catches election fever...but while everyone will be yawning and drinking coffee while they wait for the Hawaii results, it'll only be 1 PM for me :D

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
So tired
Why must Hawaii be so far behind. I got up at 4:30 this morning and had 4.5 hours of sleep last night! I fell asleep Tuesday night before results were finished, NOT doing same tonight! Damn, and I thought California elections were annoyingly late.  

Polls are closed!
I hope this is worth our staying up for--we've had a little run of misfortune with special elections the past decade.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
It's times like this I love living in Albuquerque
It's only 10 here :D

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
I wish I was in California!
Or Arizona!

Though it's not bad here in Dallas, only 11.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Yes but
Bugs Bunny always gets lost while traveling through Albuquerque...

[ Parent ]
We pride ourselves in our confusing roads :D


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24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
LOL
The state motto "I knew I should have taken that left turn...here".

[ Parent ]
Djou wins
With 39.5% it looks like. It says 98 of 98 on the Office of Elections site, so I'm assuming that's it?  

Well, you didn't fall asleep this time!
n/t

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Results
Djou: 39.5%
Hanabusa: 30.8%
Case: 27.6%

100% reporting. That's a wrap folks.


So is it over
I went to this site and saw a list of results with Djou winning.  Is this form accurate or am I mis-reading?  I must be mis-reading it because it cant be over already can it?  This race has me so confused.

http://hawaii.gov/elections/re...


Never mind, I guess tis over
So all of the naysayers can now relax, the 40% threshold wasn;t achieved, so I really don't think we have to worry about working too hard to take this back in November.

[ Parent ]
According to the Honolulu Advertiser
All ballots turned in before today were pre-counted. So they just waited until 6 to release the numbers.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Hawaii wins...
for fast counting!!

So Hanabusa outperformed Case
by over three percentage points.

Imagine what would have happened had the DCCC tried to force CASE out instead of Hanabusa.


This is some good egg in the DCCC's face


[ Parent ]
I'm stunned, all the polling was wrong on that one. But I'll defend the DCCC here...
...in that this is the first mistake they've made in years, and ultimately it didn't make a difference in the outcome.  Djou was going to win a 3-way anyway.

Since Hanabusa now has conclusively proven she is not any weaker than Case, I'll be rooting for her in the primary.  This 3rd-place finish could really hurt Case in the primary, I think.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
First mistake?
Check out Mike Montagano in IN-03 last cycle.

[ Parent ]
Oh, they've made mistakes
Their expenditures in KY-02 last cycle seemed to cause more headaches than actually help Dave Boswell.

[ Parent ]
But this all goes to show you
That mistakes are easier to cover up when you have a favorable wind at your back.

[ Parent ]
And before anyone tries to limit this
Just to special elections, the D-Trip spent a quarter of a million on Robin Weirauch in 2007, who lost 57-43.

[ Parent ]
Pobody's nerfect
Tonight just doesn't bother me.  Its temporary, minor and not really foretelling of anything that bad.  

Everyone can hate Abercrombie, Case, Hanabusa, DCCC, etc, but let's not get pessimistic.  

For a progressive blog, you'd think the Repubs over-turned HCR tonight.  The month of May has been VERY good to progressive Dems if you ask me.


[ Parent ]
And how much
did the NRCC spend on Latta? I think this was more like a game of chicken to lure the cash-strapped NRCC into spending on a safe bet...

33, living in Germany  

[ Parent ]
I stand corrected, but I'd say these examples still prove my point that...
...the DCCC's mistakes haven't affected any outcomes.  I know David Boswell's race was touted for a time, but it was a tough district, very conservative.  I can't think of an example where the DCCC can be argued to have possibly cost us a seat.  In contrast, the NRCC has screwed up repeatedly in race after race after race, where better strategy and tactics could have won the race.

And this time, I don't see an argument that the DCCC drove voting behavior at all, which means that the outcome would have been the same had they stayed out.  Who knows, maybe the attacks on Djou actually had some small effect and helped keep him under 40%?  Maybe that's psychologically significant only to obsessive campaign junkies like us, and not to the party committees, but it's something!  And in all fairness, the DCCC did ultimately stay out, for all the noise.  The DCCC/Hawaii party tension isn't the sort of thing that penetrates ordinary voters.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Difference between "mistakes" and "losses"

I'm largely with you on this one - it is all too easy to criticize the DCCC for dropping money on a race where it didn't pan out -- but that isn't the same as a "mistake". I want the DCCC to make risky expenditures, so put money into races and candidates who are longshots, not just invest in sure-thing incumbents and very favourable districts.

I can't think of a single district where the DCCC intervened in the past few cycles in a way that back-fired to such an extent that it caused a candidate to lose when they might otherwise have won - even in some of their controversial primary election choices under Rahm.

That said, I think they made a number of errors in this Hawaii special election.

First, they shouldn't have stopped their anti-Djou advertizing in the final two weeks. Who knows, perhaps it would have narrowed the margin even more, perhaps even enough for a Democrat to win. If nothing else, raising Djou's baseline negatives for November would have been a good use of money.

Secondly, they unnecessarily did things in a way that was noticed in Hawaii. By publicly releasing their polls, publicly floating rumours that they were preparing to back Case, and by calling it a lost cause when they pulled out, they generated a fair amount of press coverage in Hawaii, coverage that was doubtless heard/read by many of the more committed Democratic voters.

We'll never know if/how much of an impact this had -- did some Hanabusa supporters decide strategically to switch to Case because of the DCCC polls? Did some Democratic voters decide they couldn't be bothered to vote because their party campaign committee was giving up on the race? Did some Democratic volunteers become demoralized and stop working to turnout votes for their chosen candidate?

Finally, the DCCC was sloppy in their relationships with the Hawaii Democrats - angering Inouye/ Akaka & Hirano, clashing with the unions, and even being tone-deaf to the realities of ethnic politics in the state by tilting to a white candidate against two Asians. Perhaps this doesn't sink in with the average voter, but it speaks poorly of the way the DCCC attempts to understand a local race - seemingly ignoring the most in touch party leaders and activists when deciding how to approach a race. It is too easy to see how they were comfortable with a former colleague like Case - who had already spent time in DC and served in the House - instead of understanding what was happening on the ground 5,000 miles away.

All that said, while I'm disappointed with the approach the DCCC took in this case, the real blame here doesn't fall with the DCCC, Case, Hanabusa, Abercrombie, Inoyue, Akaka or anyone else -- it is the ridiculous Hawaii election law that creates this situation. Hopefully the next (Democratic) Governor and legislature will make it a priority to fix this situation in the near future.  


[ Parent ]
That was fast.
I guess that's what happens in an all vote-by-mail election in a small state.

Vote-by-mail in California, uggghhh...what a disaster waiting to happen.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


Wow that was quick...
I thought this might be an all night affair like the British election.  I am still recovering from that all night into the morning affair.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

Colleen Hanabusa in 2nd place!
Go away Case!

anti-establishment
This further proves the anti-establishment, anti-incumbent (as a former Rep, he was like an incumbent) mood.  

[ Parent ]
LOL
this race so does NOT prove an anti-establishment, anti-incumbent mood.  Good grief.

[ Parent ]
what are you talking about?
there's no better way to assess how voters feel about incumbents than by looking at the results of an open-seat election

[ Parent ]
Case was supported by the establishment
Depending on who you ask (K, I may have been at Red State too long) establishment is essentially incumbent, especially when the establishment candidate is a former US Rep. They tried muscle Hannabussa out of the race and she did stronger than anyone thought. Is there a relation? Maybe. Maybe not.  

[ Parent ]
Or it could be polling undersampled Japanese women
Which I understand is quite a problem when polling areas with large Japanese populations.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
I was just about to bring that up. Thank you.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Do you believe had Hanabusa dropped out
That Djou would have beaten Case.  I mean really, you don't think even half of Hanabusa's supporters would have voted for case.  Becuase Case + half Hanabusa's votes beats Djou.

All this really displays is that in a jungle primary without thresholds for runoffs, anything can happen.


[ Parent ]
Is that sarcasm? <nt>


[ Parent ]
is snark allowed around here? n/t


[ Parent ]
Um, I think you can assume so, it couldn't be more obvious! (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I hoped so
But c'mon, you're reading the same posts as me.  Some people on here are really seriously believing this proves anti-incumbent mood and/or the strength of Djou as a candidate.

I had to ask to make sure someone was poking fun at the situation besides me.


[ Parent ]
So
how horribly wrong do you think the "we'll just win in November" predictions are?

1) Hawaiians are very pro-incumbent
2) unless one of the two Dems who caused this back down from a primary, then they'll have this happen again in September, and the supporters of the loser will bolt
3) no incumbent has ever lost a federal election in Hawaii

Djou just got handed a seat until he's dumb enough to lose a Senate race. Good work Hawaii.

Try passing IRV, or some form of a runoff so that under 40% for Reps doesn't beat 60% for Democrats because of a split.


Seriously...
Every incumbent in both House seats (with only one exception) has been a Democrat (and even then there have only been 4 incumbents in each seat).

Saying that Hawaii is "very pro-incumbent" is based on very little data, and nearly all of it from Democratic incumbents.

Djou is more likely than not to lose in November simply because he's not going to be able to compile the type of moderate voting record he'll need to keep this seat.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Settle down
This isn't that bad.  Also, I'm pretty sure all of those incumbents in federal elections were Dems.  When was the last time Hawaii voted for Repubs in a November election?  I thought so.

[ Parent ]
2006?
When was the last time Hawaii voted for Repubs in a November election?

Linda Lingle was re-elected.


[ Parent ]
Federal elections he said <nt>


[ Parent ]
It's also a Gubernatorial race
Which has very different dynamics than a federal race (how do you think Freudenthal got elected Governor of Wyoming of all places?

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
The short career of Pat Saiki
Lost narrowly to Abercrombie in the special in 1986 as Abercrombie was losing the primary to Hanneman.

Defeated Hannemann by almost 22 points

Defeated Patricia Bitterman by 11 points (presumably while Dukakis was winning that district)

Lost by 9 to Akaka for the Senate.

Only one incumbent Governor has lost, in 1962.

Every incumbent President other than Carter had a noticeable swing in their re-election bid. Carter went from winning by 2.53 to 1.9.

The shorter reality:

Djou wins unless the two sides that caused this cluster-eff find someone who they both can support.


[ Parent ]
So here we go
About 90% of the time incumbents win in HI, and about 90% of the time Dems win in Hawaii (over your time period).

So we really have 0 data to test Republican incumbents in Federal races to back up any of your claims, just unhappiness with the result.  

Have we annointed Scott Brown the next President yet?  

Sheesh


[ Parent ]
multiple choice time
1) Having an intraparty dispute makes it (more/less) likely that we will win in November?

2) Trying to coast and assume that we will win in November will make it (more/less) likely that we will win in November?

Ideally both losing candidates could step aside and someone else can step up.

But there's under 2 months between the contested primary and the election, with Djou having all the time in the world to stock up for November.

And if November was an election where people were turning out to vote for President or some compelling election, then Djou would be truely doomed.

But say that the Gubernatorial nominee is cruising, then in a weird way, that could hurt the Congressional nominee due to the whole turnout dilemma.


[ Parent ]
Jeez louise.
Fine the sky is falling.  There's no hope for the Dems in HI.  Let's let them become an independent country again and make Puerto Rico the new 50th state.

Do you not think that only having 1 Dem candidate on the ballot in November, the candidate who wins the primary, won't resolve item 1 in your list.

Who has said anything about coasting also?  The idea of a late primary ensures the Dem nominee is running from now until electiuon day, non-stop.

What exactly will Djou be stocking up on between now and November.  There won't be a whole lot of votes.  I'm not sure voting NO on Kagan will help him win, nor will a YES vote for that matter.  

There won't be a turnout dilemma either.  I don't know why that would be an issue.  In a high profile race, turnout spikes.


[ Parent ]
uh
should I really keep a thread about elections going with a guy who thinks house members vote on the confirmation of Supreme Court nominees?

[ Parent ]
He doesnt vote
But he'll have to come out for or against it if he's going to be this high profile congressman that you seem to think he'll become...sometime tomorrow.


[ Parent ]
um
most voters would be lucky to name 1 Supreme Court justice, and not too many would base their vote on how a House member feels about a nominee that he will not vote on.

But Djou has a good 3 months to just raise money unbothered, and if he has the money edge around mid-September, he could swamp the winner of the primary who just had to spend the bucks to win a primary.

That's what he's gonna stock up on. Money. And unless the Dems find someone who can unify the 60%, life is gonna be tougher for them.


[ Parent ]
Money spent in the primary is as good as the general
In this situation, keeping their names in the news ahead of Djou is actually a positive.  Djou can't do anything but fundraise.  He'll have no record to run on.  

And I'd expect that the Dem nominee will not be swamped by Djou.  Who is going to donate a lot of mopney to an underdog for 5.5 months of votes on the lower priority items coming forth.  Has Cao been a surprisingly huge fundraiser in his underdog seat?


[ Parent ]
Yes, but
he's spent most of it. Direct mail FTL.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Oh and thanks for avoiding addressing my rebuttal points
Just confirmed that I was proving my points beyodn a doubt, but certainly I think a Djou-Scott Brown ticket will be elected to elad the nation in 2012 LOL.

[ Parent ]
Um, your analysis couldn't be more wrong. Point by point......
An intraparty dispute can affect a party either way in the general election, but most of the time it doesn't hurt at all, even if the primary is an angry one.  Just ask President McCain how much our "bitter" primary hurt Obama in November.  Even having some vocal people in the Hillary camp disputing the legitimacy of Obama's nomination didn't prevent Democrats from uniting.  The instances of a bitter primary hurting the party in November are rare.  And the Case-Hanabusa rivalry is nothing unusual in intensity.

On your 2nd point, it doesn't matter if we in the netroots assume we can coast to a win in November.  All that matters is what the campaigns and party committees do.  And they're not going to assume anything, they're going to work for it, especially since Djou now is an incumbent who must be unseated.

I don't know why in the world you're arguing for Case and Hanabusa both stepping aside for some new candidate.  There's nothing fundamentally wrong with either of our two major choices, they're both very electable in November.  Either one would have won a 2-way last night.  This "both step aside" notion is the most bizarre thing I've read from anyone.

On November turnout, the fact is there is a base Democratic vote that approaches 50% right from the start.
Governor Lingle won in 2002 by 51-47, and that Democratic vote in the high 40s is probably the floor (as in realistic worst-case) for HI-01 this November.  Lingle won 62-35 in 2006, but that was after 4 years of governing without pissing off voters or drawing a sufficiently strong challenger, and Djou isn't going to get the same love after 6 months as a Congressman in a hotly contested race.

And the open-seat Governor's race is going to drive up turnout, period.  The Democrat is not going to win 70%, and the turnout machine will be in full gear.  This is the thing that just might hurt Djou the most, that Democrats in the state are going to be hungry to win back the Governorship and the House seat, and work extra-hard to get the base to show up.  Lingle's job approval rating is way under water now, at 40% approve and 53% disapprove, so voters aren't at risk of passivity from contentment with the status quo.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
This sounds familiar pre-2008
1) Hawaiians are very pro-incumbent
. . .
3) no incumbent has ever lost a federal election in Hawaii

Replace "Hawaii" with "Louisiana."

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
I tdon't think Djou has Bill Jefferson's ethical problems
I don't think Djou needs a freezer in Hawaii.

[ Parent ]
But that assumes
that this is one of the most Republican districts in America while it's a strongly Democratic one. Jefferson's loss needed a freezer because it was such a blue district. It's the Democratic candidate who needs a freezer for us to lose this seat in November.  

[ Parent ]
Not even just a freezer
but also a weather storm that post-poned voting and the GE until December when many black voters chose to stay home.  That storm cost us 2 freaking seats!

[ Parent ]
But maybe he'll have Don Cazayoux's ethical problems.
(Which did not exist.)

[ Parent ]
Which is exactly what I was referring too
I was more focused on referring to LA-6 and Cazayoux than LA-2 and Jefferson.

Thanks, James!

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
I think Djou has a solid chance
Especially if he chooses to be Scott Brown rather than Joe Cao.

[ Parent ]
I suspect that Boehner won't give him the chance
After all, that's the big reason why Cao has been all over the place with his voting record.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
I'm
John Boehner I just relized that I spent a shitload of money getting Djou elected. Why would I want to blow all of that money for a six month vote? He will want Djou to succeed this November and mark me down as being in the minority of people who think Djou can win in November. Any talk of comparing Djou to Cao is nonsense unless Djou turns out to be a real moron.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Boehner would probably also want Cao to succeed too
Why should I believe that Boehner is going to give any more leeway to Djou than he gave to Cao (who is in a much more Democratic district).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Boehner is pretty powerless for both
What can he really offer to keep them in line.  I'd love to hear Boehner's strategies for winning either seat in a head-to-head election against a non-criminal.

He may hold money, but that money won't be as available in November when there are 200 Republicans running for re-lection plus about 50 more trying to win takeouvers.


[ Parent ]
Cao was considered DOA
Cao never had a chance.  Djon has a chance of winning.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
A small one
I think the easiest way for both is a 3rd party candidate.  Case could run 3rd party in HI, and that kennedy prick in LA hates the Dems, he could try and run as 3rd party in LA to help Cao.

[ Parent ]
Im surprised the GOP hasnt thought of doing that
and getting a black Indy candidate.  It'd be ruthless, but that's one of the few ways to play politics.  Not having that solid liberal vote only means some other member in a tough swing/GOP lean district of ours has to vote for something their district probably wouldnt support as much.

[ Parent ]
A black indy can help the GOP only if the Dem is white......
If New Orleans Democrats nominate a black candidate to challenge Cao, then game over, no one will vote for a black indy.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Kennedy in LA
He could be the white Indy to a Dem black candidate in that district.  I think the Dem candidate still wins, but Kennedy seems to be our perennial thorn in the side so who knows how it would go.  

[ Parent ]
I suspect that would hurt Cao more than a black Dem
LA-02 is majority black, and assuming the voting % is something like this:

53% Black
42% White
5% Other

If the random black Dem would normally get 85-90% of the vote, the percentage starts off as being between 45-47% right off the bat. A white Indy candidate might take 5% of the black vote, but that's not necessarily at the expense of the Democrat (for example, it's entirely possible that 4% of that comes from Cao's vote, especially if the Independent is Kennedy, who ran as a Republican recently). Any path to victory for someone like Cao would probably require getting at least 30% of the black vote and getting around 85% of the white vote in a two-way race. A white Independent candidate would split the white vote with Cao, while still allowing the black vote to be united behind the black Dem.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
I really doubt Kennedy would give up a promising career for a suicide mission
Despite his loss to Landrieu he's still young enough to recover and still fairly popular.  If he runs for anything this year it'll be Lt. Gov, where he'll probably be the favorite.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
He's better off waiting
Roger Villere, Jay Dardenne, and Sammy Kershaw have sucked up all the oxygen in the race. I don't see him being able to gain traction in this field. I think his best choice is waiting until 2014 or gov in 2015.  

[ Parent ]
I
think that no matter how liberal Cao would vote he would have NO chance of winning. Well some what of a chance but not much. However Djou has a very realistic shot at winning than Cao. Cao's district is D+25 while Djou's is D+ 11 minus the Obama effect that's a D+7.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Actually
As I noted not long ago, the scary thing is that the NRCC didn't spend a dime here. The RNC flipped some money (under $100K) to the HI state GOP, but that's it.

[ Parent ]
And they didn't even reach 40% of the vote for all Republicans combined......
The "Democrats" as a party won, but our vote was split.  It's as simple as that.

There's nothing "scary" about Djou winning with minimal NRCC help.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
sucks they got a freebie :(


[ Parent ]
It's not for a 6-month vote
It was to build a narrative of Dem failure, between this and PA-12.  It didn't happen.  They don't care about keeping this seat more than others.

[ Parent ]
I expect Abercrombie to hold hands with Hanabusa
And for Hanabusa to win by about 20 points.  I just don't understand the pessimism in this one.  Djou would have lost to Hanabusa or Case head-to-head.  Why would we expect that to be different in November, which is 5.5 months away.

[ Parent ]
Din't we already establish that this is an anti-incumbent year
well Djou will be an incumbent with no record in a D+11 district  

[ Parent ]
It's sky-is-falling Democratic mentality, which says...
...every rule of voting behavior must be interpreted to hurt Democrats.

We're still too often stuck in a 2000-2004 emotional state.  It's like being a Boston Red Sox fan pre-2004, or a Chicago Cubs fan now.  Or, in my case, being an Iowa State Cyclones fan, which in both football and basketball means having Lucy yank the football away so many times just like with the Cubs and, before 2004, the Red Sox.

So it's an "anti-incumbent year" unless the incumbent is a short-term Republican Congressman in a strongly Democratic state reeling from an unpopular Republican Governor...because "incumbents never lose in Hawaii!"

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I don't think Scott Brown is good enough, he has to go further left than that......
Djou has his back to the wall far worse than Brown.  Brown isn't up again until 2012, he'd be much more under the gun right now if he were up this November.

And Democrats are stronger in Hawaii right now than in Massachusetts.  Obama is far more strongly popular in Hawaii than anywhere else including Massachusetts, and Hawaii has soured on a sitting Republican Governor, a big distinction from Massachusetts.

As I posted elsewhere, Djou is lucky he's missed what probably will be the toughest House votes in this Congress, but there still will be enough tough ones to put him in a tight spot.  Boehner and Cantor have put a tighter squeeze on their caucus than any party leaders in my lifetime, and Djou is going to be between a rock and a hard place.  I don't think House Republicans are smart enough to let their members defect on some votes.  I agree that regarding Cao they probably calculated he loses no matter what so getting him to vote with them while they have him is the smarter move there, and they're probably right on that one.  But I don't think they've shown any more smarts than that in more marginal cases.  Financial reform, the budget, and appropriation bills are still on tap, so we'll see what Djou does.

But really, the electoral reality is that all Republicans combined failed to crack 40% last night, and that leaves Djou with a tall hill to climb in a 2-way.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
We'll see.
I just don't think that Djou should be written off as automatically doomed as a few (but certainly not all) people here are suggesting.

[ Parent ]
I think the extra 10% Djou needs in November is a taller hill to climb than some think......
We don't know the makeup of Case's or Hanabusa's voters, but it's a real head-scratcher how Djou can win over 35% of Case voters if Hanabusa is the nominee, or 30% of Hanabusa voters if Case is the nominee.  Everyone assumes Case is more to the ideological middle than Hanabusa and won over more independents and moderates than she did, but given he badly underperformed pre-election polling, and she overperformed, it's not clear those assumptions were right.

Either way, it's very, very hard to get a large number of opposite party voters to cross lines and vote for you when they already passed on you as a choice just a very short time earlier.  And that's the task Djou must accomplish.  I think it's a very, very hard thing to do, and frankly it requires getting a lot of Case or Hanabusa voters to change their minds about Djou.

That's the thing I think has to happen that some people don't realize, that more than 30% of Case or Hanabusa voters have to view Djou more favorably than they do now.  That wouldn't be true if, say, these weren't both Democrats, but they are, and voters chose them as Democrats over Djou already.  So they're not truly up for grabs.

I put the odds of Djou winning in November at no better than 25%, maybe less.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
No secret
The Hawaii newspapers said Hanabusa would do better than the polls because she had union support and they were right.  The unions did a better job at turning out voters than "the average."

 


[ Parent ]
Fair enough, but how much of the vote does that truly explain?......
What share of Hawaii's registered voters are unionized workers?  What's their D-R split in voting?...it's normal across the country for one-third of union workers to vote Republican, and up to 40% of them voted for Reagan!  And in this special, there were surely some voting for Djou and Case, not all for Hanabusa.

So how much did union turnout really drive the topline result?

I imagine union turnout was one factor in the polling beign off, and the difficulty of polling nonwhite Hawaii voters was another.  But do those 2 things combined explain it all?

I realize these are ultimately unanswerable questions.  But I'm wondering what people think anyway.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
This "Hawaii is pro-incumbent" meme is some stunning nonsense......
It doesn't mean anything that incumbents win in Hawaii.  They've got just 2 House seats and have been a state for only a half-century, and they've had only a handful of federal elected officals in all their years.  And it's a strongly Democratic state where all but 2 or 3 of those "incumbents" have been Democrats.

Incumbents always win everywhere.  Even when we lost the House in 1994, 90% of incumbents won!

And when you get down to such a small sample size as Hawaii has, where the "incumbents" are from the state's favored party, a statistic like "incumbents always win" becomes meaningless.

Djou is in a Democratic district that has their favorite son President's back, and Djou is an underdog in November if he doesn't defect from his party on a bunch of votes.  And he's going to be under enormous pressure not to defect.  He's only lucky that he's already missed most of the toughest House votes the 111th Congress will have taken.  But there will be financial industry reform, appropriations, and others still to come before November.

I'm very much counting on this seat flipping back to us in November.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Thank you
It's getting really frustrating hearing everyone say how "pro-incumbent" Hawaii is based on so little data.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
You know its funny
When you look at the changes in congress and the senate each election, pretty much all areas of the country prefer to re-elect incumbents.  I mean the only seat that routinely flips is Burr's Senate seat in NC.

Seriously, what is the re-election rates of members of congress who actually run on average.  it must be in the 80% level in Congress and probably about the same for the Senate.


[ Parent ]
More like 95% reelection of House incumbents
  in normal years. Even in wave years more of the party changes are in open seats. That doesn't mean incumbents never lose but it is uncommon.

  This is an uncommon situation, though. It looks like the GOP Asian-American caucus is likely to lose both of its members in November; Cao sure isn't coming back and Zhou is an underdog as well (can't even spell his own damn name right...)

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28


[ Parent ]
I havent' checked on the Senate
But in 2006, 94% of all incumbents who ran for re-election won.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Uh.
One of the Democrats (Hanabusa) will win the primary and will beat Djou in November. Count on it.

And the incumbent thing is BS.

When Hawaii became a state it got two at large representatives.

In the first seat Inouye started, then ran for Senate in 62 and has been the Senator since.

The next incumbent, Thomas Gill, didn't run for re-election.

The next incumbent, Patsy Mink, never had a real race before the district was eliminated. Spark Matsunaga served in the other at large seat for the whole term of its existence.

After the 1970 restricting Mink is put into the second district where she serves until she runs for Senate at which point Daniel Akaka wins the seat until he's appointed to the Senate. At this point Mink takes over the seat again until she dies in 2002. Case wins the election to replace her until he primaries Akaka and Mazie Hirono wins the seat.

Spark Matsunaga kept the other seat (first district) until he runs against Mink for Senate in 76 to replace Hiram Fong (who had been Senator since statehood). Matsunaga won and served until he died at which point Akaka takes over the seat. Cecil Heftel replaces Matsunaga until he resigns to run for governor. In a September special election Neil Abercrombie wins the seat but loses the Democratic primary (on the same day) to his current rival for the gubernatorial nomination, Mufi Hannemann. Pat Saiki wins this seat in November, wins re-election once then runs for Senate vs Akaka. Abercrombie easily wins to replace her and has served until he resigned, forcing this election.

Hawaii politics on the federal level only includes 11 people, now 12. There have not been any real competitive elections in which an incumbent was involved. It's not that Hawaii just loves incumbents, it's that we are working with a pretty damn small sample size.

Djou is toast in November with a semi-competent campaign.


[ Parent ]
Hawaii also came very close to ousting a Governor
In 1998 incumbent Benjamin Cayetano barely beat off a challenge from then Maui Mayor Linda Lingle.  Cayetano won only 50.11% to 48.82%.  I doubt a state that absolutely loved its incumbents would let one almost lose.  Glancing over Wikipedia this seems to be the most competitive election for governor the state had had, though I hope someone with more knowledge can confirm or deny this.


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Hawaii has had even fewer Republican officeholders
...and one of them, Sen. Hiram Fong, nearly lost his seat in a Republican-leaning year for Senators, 1970. So Dijou is in no way safe for life.  

[ Parent ]
wow
That was like a world record.  If they pre-count the ballots, it is hard for me to believe the campaigns don't already know.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

If it's like Oregon
There will still be at least a few more ballots to go. At least ballots that are dropped off have to be opened -- two envelopes per ballot -- before they can be counted.

For some reason, the OR state sites report 100% of 100% early on in the evening as well.  


Hopefully Hanabusa wins the primary
and we get the seat back in November.  

Eat it Sunderland South!
Hawaii-1 just showed you!!

(UK reference)


Vote by Party
Dem 59.4%
Rep 40.1%
NP 0.6%

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

Yes, so we CAN win this in November.
Besides, Djou didn't reach 40% (he sits at 39.5% right now), so he is beatable, especially if he joins the congressional Republican borg collective.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
There shouldn't be any Star Trek references here
He's joining the Hive Cluster of the Republican Overmind, John Boehner.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Djou's only path in November
Is if Dems pick Hanabusa to run via the primary and Ed Case extracts revenge by trying to run as a 3rd party.  Seriously, why did everyone get so gloomy over this 1 seat that we are hugely favored to take back in November

[ Parent ]
Almost exactly the presidential result
In the district in 2000 which I've been saying. Obviously I also said Case would come second. On this evidence Hanabusa will win the primary and I'd say she probably beats Djou by about the Kerry-Bush margin from 2004.

[ Parent ]
I somehow feel cheated
of the suspense of election night.  How will we do back of the envelope projections?

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

Thanks DCCC
For siding with the 3rd place loser. I wonder how many people switched their votes thinking Hanabusa had no chance, as well.

Seriously, shame on the DCCC for supporting Case
Case is not a progressive while Hanabusa was the best candidate for Democrats.

[ Parent ]
Actually, Case is more progessive in one area.
He supports marriage equality while Hanabusa supports nothing beyond civil unions.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


[ Parent ]
Not sure how Hanabusa is on environmental issues
Case opposes ANWR drilling.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
ANWR
That's one more reason why Inouye was pissed at Case. Since statehood in 1959, there has been an agreement between the Alaska and Hawaii delegations that, on local issues, if Alaska wanted something Hawaii would support it and vice versa. By his opposition to ANWR drilling Case, in the eyes of Inouye, broke the agreement.

[ Parent ]
Theoretically...
With his Liebermanesque profile and his knowledge that he probably had to undercut Hanabusa among a fairly progressive electorate, how do we know he'd support marriage equality when the rubber hits the road.  I could be ENTIRELY wrong, but I think he saw an opportunity to outflank Hanabusa and took it.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
Be fair, please
Case supported marriage equality starting in 1997, when he opposed a ban gay marriage referendum (it passed with about 70%). He didn't start running for congress until 5 years later.

[ Parent ]
I claim ignorance
I just didn't know.  If that's so, then I wholeheartedly retract my statement. I had very little knowledge of the fellow until he hit Congress.  I am sorry.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
I'm not too familiar with Case either
I looked it up on Wikipedia, and that's what it said.

[ Parent ]
Yeah
As a gay guy, that's the one thing that gives me pause about Hanabusa.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
That's the only thing I give Case credit about
but marriage equality isn't enough to make me want to support a candidate who otherwise acts like an overambitious triangulating douchebag.

[ Parent ]
I really doubt many did
Anit would have made no difference anyway. The vote was split unless somebody dropped out. The DCCC has to base their decisons on a range of criteria. Polling has always suggested support fo Case was stronger. Obviously that was wrong. Besides, they never actually endorsed him anyway.

[ Parent ]
Interesting how everyone else total
got only 1%.  

Case in 3rd
HAHAHAHAHA

On the bright side
This was so late at night that we don't have to watch MSM fatmouths talk about how anti-Obama Hawaii has become.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

Need Obama to go to Hawaii
If Obama or perhaps Biden campaign for the Democratic candidate in November, I think they can overcome any incumbency factor in Hawaii. And this is an exceptional circumstance anyway, it's not clear if Hawaiians will view Djou as an incumbent quite yet.

Well, so much for watching the returns come in
Guess we'll just have to begin the countdown to the finale of a certain TV series that may not be mentioned here! Less than 20 hours to go!

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

Frustrating
A republican congresman was not the will of the voters. What are the institutional obstacles to IRV?

The end of Ed Case?
We can only hope. And Djou has just five months to try and build up his incumbency. I don't see him hanging on despite Hawaii's pro-incumbent history.  

If Case wanted to do what's best for the party
He would not run in the primary this year. He's had chance after chance and finished in 3rd place this time. There does not appear to be much that would change this in a primary.

[ Parent ]
Very good comment. I agree.

Is not time of continue the fight between democrats in this district. After see the results I think Case would not continue in the primary for November elections.

Is sad for me but the fight makes win Djou, and the next time will not run as city councilman. The next time Djou will run as incumbent.

All the help for the first democrat in the district against Djou.


[ Parent ]
Please, Look here
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

I am more or less sure that all three will campaign until September at least...


[ Parent ]
Bad news again

The fight between democrats goes too much far.

Some weeks before this election I call for Hanabusa left the race as the second democrat in the polls, but she continues fighting Case, and now Case is very damaged.

Now after the elections I call for Case left the race as the second democrat in the elections, but surely Case will continue fighting Hanabusa. Is not right but I can understand this because Hanabusa failed before, and surely Case will wish Hanabusa lose. Today many Case supporters can feel this is a painful defeat and that help not to Hanabusa. I think Case will lose the primary but I think he can end endorsing officially Djou.

Cause of that I continue pesimistic about this district. Democrats only lose districts like this by own mistakes, like LA-02 in 2008.


[ Parent ]
Has Case endorsed Hawaii Republicans before?
My take is that the 2nd-place finish puts Hanabusa in a strong position to win the Democratic nomination for the November election, and if she runs a decent campaign, the seat. Case is in a very weak position.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Excellent question
Wish I knew the answer. But he has run against the dean of Hawaii's Dems, so I'm sure he's not exactly enamored of them.

The only way I could see that making sense for Case to endorse Djou was if he was eventually going to switch sides completely and become a Republican. With his positions on ANWR & GLBT rights, he's not exactly in a great position to win a Republican primary, either.

But I agree both that Case is in a weak position and that he probably could seriously hurt Hanabusa's chances with a Djou endorsement if he really wanted.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
Case would be an idiot to switch parties
The Republican Party in Hawaii is virtually nonexistent. Lingle did well in 2006, but she's failed to build the party at all, since the number of Republicans in the legislature has atrophied to insignificance. And her personal popularity has pretty much dissipated; her approval ratings are at record lows now. And Hawaii isn't like West Virginia where the state is conservative enough to sustain a Republican like Shelley Capito (or Oliverio, if/when he decides to defect).

Endorsing Djou would pretty much blow any chance of Case getting a chance at one of the Daniels' Senate seats when they retire/die. The Democratic Party in Hawaii is still very much an old-style machine, with Daniel Inouye at the controls, and if Case were to piss him off again, I would expect the machine to go nuclear on Case.


[ Parent ]
I think Case has nothing for lose endorsing Djou
His political career as electable person is virtually ended. Losing against Hanabusa he can not run with options for decent level office. So, why will continue fighting E Case? I think the alone explanation is for damage Hanabusa, and maybe Case stop not until November.

He can be dangerous in this front. He lose now but a 28% of the people vote for him, near a half of democrats. In a context of fight between democrats with high level of hate between Hanabusa and Case an endorsement of Case to Djou win sense. The fight here goes too much far.

And I think the revenge of Case can not stop hurting Hanabusa. When Akaka run in 2012 Case can endorse Lingle. I think the democrats from Hawaii have a serious danger here.


[ Parent ]
So the guy...
Getting 30% as a conserva-dem will endorse the republican who was on the same ballot and his voters will follow him the voting R?  Kind of a leap there, don't you think.  

Guy clearly wants to keep a job in plitics.  If he endores a republican in HI, isn't his career then over?


[ Parent ]
I think
After lose like he loses, I think Case is not electable in Hawaii now. Because many democrats hate him. The alone political job what Case can make would come from Washington government.

But we know not if Hanabusa can be not electable too.

If the hate toward Hanabusa in the Case supporters is enough strong she will be not electable.

And if the hate toward Hanabusa is enough strong, I think he can try to bash Hanabusa for November eletions.


[ Parent ]
Is there any evidence
that people who voted for Case don't merely prefer him but hate Hanabusa?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
5 months is nothing
Look at Richard Burr!  Dude has had 6 years and people still dont know who he is.

[ Parent ]
Maybe the Democrats can nominate a candidate who actually lives in the district
I'm sure there are plenty of folks on the bench.

There's that state senator
That considered a bid right after Abercrombie announced his resignation.  

[ Parent ]
Doesn't really seem to matter in Hawaii
Patsy Mink served in both districts at different times.

[ Parent ]
Mazie Hirono
Rep. Mazie Hirono (D, HI-02), actually lives in HI-01. It hasn't affected her.

[ Parent ]
Good examples, and remember Hawaii is a bunch of islands......
I doubt the boundaries between districts penetrate voter psychology at all in Hawaii.  HI-01 is Honolulu-based in Oahu, but Oahu is split between the 2 districts, and a majority of the square mileage of the island is HI-02.  To the extent there are any geographic divisions that penetrate voter psychology (and I don't know Hawaii well enough to know if there are any), they're almost certainly island-based, I doubt anyone in Oahu cares from what part of the island you come from.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Democrats will have chance in November,
but:

1. They will have a very late primary (1,5 month before General) and Case will run - he is a political animal and percentage difference with Hanabusa is small enough

2. A lot will depend on Djou record in House - if he will compile a very moderate (Linda Lingle-style) record - he may survive. Otherwise - no chance.


Even then
I doubt he could pull it off.  Lingle has never won on ideology, except for some folks in the wealthiest corners of Oahu (yes, I know, the district has these).  She's won because people wanted some sort of check on a meteorically Democratic legislature (why I do not know) and because her predecessors, especially Ben Cayetano, acted like entitled fat cats who alienated labor and other progressive constituencies.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
I agree
I'm even giving second thought to my prior comment about Case being able to screw it up as a 3rd party.  I doubt he would carry near as much support after losing a primary and with the endorsements Hanabusa would get as primary winner.

Sucks that it didn't happen tonight, but Hanabusa is our next congresswoman from HI...coming Nov 2010.


[ Parent ]
Still Djou showed
that he can count on about 40% of voters. If he compiles the above mentioned "very moderate" record, he may get the required 10% from Indies and "Independent-minded" "Case Democrats", especially if Case loses the primary (or runs as Independent - in that case Djou will need even less). Very liberal Hanabusa may have it's own share of problems with "center"....

[ Parent ]
I won't claim to know Hawaii
But is this districts "center" more or less liberal than Case's old district?

If Case runs as a 3rd party Djou will win again, but I'd think it would be closer.

As for a moderate voting record, I just don't know what votes he could cast that would make him moderate.  What important votes are forthcoming?  I'm already in summer in my brain and have no idea what politics holds this summer.


[ Parent ]
I don't
think Case is that much of a sore loser that he would run third party!

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
If Hanabusa is smart (or strategic)
She'll get back to work in the HI Senate and work to pass a "sore loser" law ASAP.

[ Parent ]
Financial Reform
I wrote this below but I think that will be a big test after the bill comes out of committee. If he votes against it I bet he stands little chance in the Fall. Both of the following are speculative but he could sign onto a Democratic attempt at Immigration Reform and anything that tries to do something about the gulf oil spill.  

[ Parent ]
You think these will help?
To me they're just not that meaningful enough and unlikely to change people's votes.

I guess I'm always looking for people to differentiate themselves.  I mean, if at the end of the day he's going to vote with D's on issues, I don't care if a D or R is next to his name.


[ Parent ]
You asked
"As for a moderate voting record, I just don't know what votes he could cast that would make him moderate.  What important votes are forthcoming?" Those are the important votes. How many Republicans are going to cast those votes or co-sponsor those bills? I would add the DISCLOSE Act as well.  

[ Parent ]
Ugh. AP already with pro-GOP bias - "GOP wins House seat in Obama's home district"
Yeah
Somehow they report this as a "blow to Obama," even though the result was expected for weeks, and I do not imagine it will keep the President up at night. Furthermore, how is this the "latest triumph?" Are they considering Virginia and New Jersey as "triumphs"? And of course they ignore Democratic congressional victories in New York and Pennsylvania. That's how it seems to be with the media; highlight Republican victories and ignore Democratic ones.

[ Parent ]
And one of those in New York
was a seat that we actually picked up.

[ Parent ]
I think they all got fair coverage
I mean I think NJ and VA got more coverage because they were higher profile.  But seriously there has not been nearly any special election race in recent years that got more coverage than NY-23.  To say that was under-covered is crazy.

Its not like anyone really listens to MSM, so don't worry about it.  Election results have been pretty predictable in the last few months, dontcha think?  The sky isn't falling for Dems and as angry as it seems Sarah Palin and her gaggle is on the news every night, lets remember its a small gaggle relatively speaking.


[ Parent ]
The final results were extremely under-covered
The lead-up, sure, it was interesting and a shit show.  But then we won and oh, what, nobody cares?  The entire story was tea-baggers find strength and they never followed up with, and lost!

[ Parent ]
Oh AP
I'd lay down 5-1 odds that Ron Fournier has had that story's title and general direction waiting for weeks in a special file called "Masturbation Material."

And if you didn't get the joke (and sorry if you were offended by it!...kinda), the ole Wikipedia has a fairly straight-to-the-point bio of Ron Fournier: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R...

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
What was the reasoning behind the DCCC backing Case?
Hanabusa had most of the infrastructure, the money, and the backing of Dan Inouye and Dan Akaka. Inouye continued to support her after the DCCC intervened and he was right. The DCCC blew this one.

They expected her support to completely collapse
for exaggerating her salary cost-savings for Hawaii. Well that seemed to be the official reason. More likely, Emanuel and DCCC insiders had a predisposition to favoring the "moderate" Case, and any negative news with Hanabusa was going to be the spark for them to support him.

[ Parent ]
No, sapelcovits is right below, it was polling......
The last thing Rahm or anyone else wants in the national party is a "moderate" who will defect from time to time and needs extra persuasion to stay with the party.

A liberal is a more reliable vote.

Ultimately all the DCCC and Rahm and others care about is beating Republicans.  And they sincerely thought Case had a better chance of that than Hanabusa, that it wasn't a close call.

Obviously last night's results proved them wrong.  And I'm sure they'll revisit their assumptions, although ultimately they now have the luxury of not having to think about it because the primary will not only decide the nominee, but shed light on who is a better candidate with a better campaign.  Case obviously was lacking much more than national Democrats realized.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Supposedly
their polls showed Case beating her.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
they claimed
polls showed Hannabusa couldn't win, could only be spoiler.

[ Parent ]
Called it
I had Hanabusa scoring over 30% of the vote and Case in the 20s.  Actually, I had Hanabusa netting 2 or 3 more % than she got.  The pollsters always underrate the non-white voters in Hawaii, which clearly broke hugely for Hanabusa in this election.  

The DCCC should be collectively hung for their humongous failure here.  They should've gone all out to push Case out.  It's Case's selfishness and Abercrombie's bad planning that cost us this seat.  If Case hadn't gotten his nose where it didn't belong, Hanabusa would be taking her rightful place in the House right now.  Oh well, I guess it'll just have to take 6 more months, because there's no chance in hell Case beats Hanabusa in the democratic primary.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


aren't Hawaii primaries incredibly open?
so if there's absolutely nothing going on for the Republican primary, Case would look more viable. Or viable enough to lose, yet suck money out of the winner's campaign.

Here's an interesting idea worth trying for November. A candidate who lives in that district. Both Case and Hanabusa live in the 2nd district.

Although Hirono lives in the 1st, if you're looking for an out of the box candidate.


[ Parent ]
The Democrats need someone else
It is time to look for another candidate.  These two have proven themselves to be stooges that will not be able to unify each other's supporters behind them.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
I'm someone else
I think that was Homer's response when they were setting up the mob to catch the cat burglar when Flanders was waffling on it lol.

[ Parent ]
That's just silly, Ryan. I suppose we should've nominated Dodd in 2008 because...
...obviously Obama's and Hillary's supporters would never unite behind the rival candidate.

Come on, there's nothing uniquely divisive about Case and Hanabusa.  There's no reason to think Democrats won't unite after the primary.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
I had 38/31/26 D/H/C
Overestimated the minor candidate vote, but otherwise I'm happy...(although there was nothing too radical in my prediction aside from the 2nd place Hanabusa finish)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
I am very confident about November
With Democrats getting close to 60% of the vote tonight, a very popular Democratic senator running for re-election and a popular Democrat running for Governor in think the Dems are at least 2-1 favorites to take this seat back in November. It ranks only behind LA-02 and DE-AL as far as pickup targets go.


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

WOW!
That was fast! I left for a little bit and all of this happened. No suspense at least. I'm glad to see Case in third. Ughh the MSM is going to have a heyday.      

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

The "pro-incumbent" Hawaii thing
is based on an above average HI vote for Presidential incumbents relative to the rest of the country. That's all.

i demand an interesting election!
slower (but not too slow) next time.  on another note, do you remember that episode of lost, where snape killed aslan to prevent darth vader from finding obama's birth certificate in the dark tower?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

In light of PA-12, it is a blow to progressives...
Sadly this hurts the progressives in the House as a more progressive seat elects a Republican while a conservaDem seat stays with the Democrats.  Now the caucus is slightly more reactionary (my term for people like Critz) and the Republican caucus has another moderate.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

For 5.5 months
And the most pressing progrssive issues have been hit hard in the first 18 months of this Congress.  Not too terribly worrisome.

[ Parent ]
Djou is not a moderate
He campaigned as a Tea Party candidate, appearing on Hannity's show, while campaigning against health care reform and government spending.

[ Parent ]
He
just did it to get money. That is it.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Yes
I am soooo upset. The Democrats get 60% of the vote and the Republican wins because a dumb system. Yeah  this must be the end to liberalism in all forms. I think we all moved further to the right tonight.  YAH conservatism! I know a win is a win but this really shouldn't count for much. Djou didn't even do better than Bush did in 04.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Finally a sarcasm friend.
Wow, a result we all expected certainly got everyone crazy riled up and pessimistic tonight.  

Its only a matter of time before people start using local muicipal agriculture commissioner special election races to determine the mood of the nation LOL.


[ Parent ]
Ridiculous
Had Case won we would have been stuck with a Lieberdem (annoying term, but fits here) until he decided to go on another crazy run for higher office. In the mean time he could have done real damage to our issues.

This way he will lose the primary and the general and we will end up with a progressive congressperson who can hold the seat for decades.

This idea that somehow it was a crushing defeat for progressives is just silly. Hanabusa winning outright would have been the best thing that could have happened, obviously. But barring that this result and a primary and general win for her is the best thing that could happen for progressives long-term.  


[ Parent ]
It's a tough one
If Hanabusa can pull out the primary win and then the general election victory in November, then the ultimate outcome is absolutely better than Case winning now. I certainly would not count Djou out though, although I do believe if Obama produces television ads for the Democratic candidate and either himself or someone important in the administration makes a trip out to Hawaii with personal appeals, it would help the Democratic candidate win the general.

In the end, I feel that we should win in November, but the result will really depend on whether Case voters return to Hanabusa or vice versa. And of course whether Djou decides to be a moderate in the form of Brown could help him, although there probably will not be many more significant votes. We'll see how he votes on financial reform. If he chooses to side with Democrats on some of these issues, he's going to inevitably receive some possible media coverage in Hawaii.


[ Parent ]
positive* media coverage n/t


[ Parent ]
I remember something a guy on uselectionatlas posted right before the election
He said:
For what it's worth, if anyone underpolls like that, it'll be Hanabusa. Japanese voters are notorious for refusing to answer polling (even to tell a pollster their demographic information, let alone voting preferences), but of course they will be the core of her vote.

Turns out it was spot on.

http://mypolitikal.com/


The user right below him, rbt48, predicted the election results.
That's incredible.

[ Parent ]
Interesting.
And yet another reason why the DCCC royally screwed up by backing Case. You can't expect a state that's so culturally different from the rest of the US that it may as well be its own country to poll according to the same rules as Pennsylvania.

This is where all of the mainland committees and pollsters on both sides of the aisle screw up every time.  


[ Parent ]
After Hanabusa's "I'm not withdrawing" press conference
a couple of weeks ago, I thought her support would drop through the floor. Clearly, I was mistaken.

Either she was right or she got lucky somehow
But she was right that the polling was wrong.  Considering many of the polls were taken as the mail-in ballots were already ebign sent in, for her to beat Case at least proved her point that she would not lose to him.

[ Parent ]
I don't know how it's really pronounced but...
THE FUTURE IS DJOU!

I hope he enjoys leaving Hawaii in the middle of summer to travel thousands of miles to muggy Washington to be the junior member of the minority party!

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)


Well
it's a French transliteration of the Chinese last name "Zhou" which is pronounced kinda like "Joe" (not really, but for the sake of making it simpler for American tongues). But I think the American twist on "Djou" is like "D'joo" or something.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Jew
I assumed this is the same name I've usually seen Romanized as "Jew." Is Jew Cantonese for Zhou?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Wow
I had actually never seen this last name before. I just looked in the dictionary and it appears Zhou is Jau in Cantonese. I think Jew might be the Cantonese version of Ju, but it's a bit unclear. I also don't get why Djou even changed the spelling in the first place, since the vast majority of Chinese people either use Pinyin (mainlanders) or Wade-Giles (Singaporeans, Taiwanese).

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Americans misspell their names
a lot, regardless of where the names are from. I know my family misspells its name.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
True
My last name (Jewish) is "misspelled," as is the case with many Jews I know, but for Chinese people I think it's fairly rare (and definitely for Japanese people, perhaps Inouye should be Inoue but other than that they're all spelled correctly). I just found it a bit curious, but I certainly don't mean to imply it's on the same level as "Bobby" Jindal, and of course being Asian is much less of an electoral challenge in Hawaii than in Louisiana.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Inouye is running for re-election this year.
And Abercrombie is running for Governor.  I think they will help carry Hanabusa to victory on their coattails.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!


Snore
Just about the least interesting and most unimportant special ever.

I find it moderately amusing
that the Republican nominee in 2008 (running without party affiliation this time) only got 125 votes, for 0.1% (compared to over 38,000 in 2008). A true Some Dude.  

I said Hanabusa would finish ahead of Case
And that the DCCC poll was a set up.  Now, it's on to the primary where Hanabusa can polish off DINO Case.  And then to November when she'll capture the seat.

Too Optimistic?
12:39am: Here's another observation, for what it's worth. George W. Bush's percentage in this district in 2004: 47%. Charles Djou's percentage tonight: 40%.

First of all, that was 6 years ago, and George Bush last night was nowhere to be found. Second, Djou's margin doesn't justify in the Democratic Party's incompetence in the inability to settle the dispute between their TWO candidates. If they only had one, they might have won last night.  


The party's fault only to a limited extent
Had the DCCC come all out for Hanabusa, rather than tacitly supporting the DINO carpetbagger, she might have won.  It's Case's fault when all is said and done.  He doesn't give a damn about the party.

[ Parent ]
I don't think it would've mattered
And to say that it's all Case's fault assumes that Case was running for pure ambition and spite for the party and liberals while Hanabusa was running for the good of progressives and Democrats and puppies; not to mention it presumes that Case was only running as a spoiler and could never have beaten Djou himself (both things are ridiculous on the face of it).

I don't like Case, and I'd much rather see Hanabusa win the primary (and be a member of congress right now) but to blame either candidate right now instead of the stupid system which allowed it to happen isn't being reasonable or realistic.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Agree
Hanabusa has to be heavily favored now in the primary. She can run against the Washington Dem establishment.

[ Parent ]
If one of Case or Hanabusa hadn't run
do you think there wouldn't have been another Democrat that would've stepped in? We're talking about a state where 90% of the legislature and presumably the majority of the Honolulu city council are Democrats, and an open House seat is a fucking golden opportunity.

[ Parent ]
I don't know...
Djou just got elected, and he'll be running again in November. Are people just going to toss out a newly elected Congressman just because he's a Democrat? I can understand how that may work in LA-02, where after two years having a Republican member working against them on health care reform and the economy, that people are ready to throw that guy out and change back to Democrat.  

[ Parent ]
Cazayoux was thrown out
Split vote yes but the vote was split here too. Just in this case in the primary instead of the general. He isn't automatically gone but he will find it very tough against a united opposition regardless of incumbency.

[ Parent ]
The dispute was that both wanted to be a member of congress
And both candidates were of roughly equal stature, which means that there was no obvious person to force out of the race (and neither candidate had much incentive to drop out if both wanted to be a member of congress). The problem here was the inherent situation, not what the Democrats did or did not do.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Well, it gives us a third seat we'll likely flip
in November, if Case is not the candidate.  Along with DE and LA-2.

Fourth.
You forgot IL-10.

And I'm not counting out PA-06 and/or PA-15, either.  


[ Parent ]
IL-10 and HA-01
These are certainly not guaranteed seats, although they are at least toss ups. The Republicans will likely fight tough campaigns for these seats.  

[ Parent ]
Sure,
but they're upper middle class seats in solidly blue states (HI was #1/50 in Obama vote percentage, while IL was #3). IL-10 only didn't flip sooner because of Kirk, and HI-01 is a fluke. It'll probably be close, but I think we have the advantage in both of these races in the fall. Which is good, if the GOP wastes lots of its money trying to hold a handful of blue seats with a D PVI, esp. in Chicago metro.  

[ Parent ]
I said "likely"
IL-10 is probably a tossup, with a slight lean to Seals.

[ Parent ]
What the hell's with Obama's influence on candidates?
Deeds, Corzine, Coakley, Specter, and now Ed Case, finishing an anemic third here. It's as though keeping Kirsten Gillibrand safe has been his only victory.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Deeds was DoA and ran away from Obama
Obama's influence on the Corzine race actually made it close.
Obama's help for Coakley was in response to SOS signals.
Obama didn't even campaign for Specter.
Obama didn't specifically support Case, the DCCC did and they pulled out.  

[ Parent ]
Well, the first three were bad candidates
The ineptitude of Deeds and Coakley are well-documented, and Corzine was way too damaged to ever win.

As for Specter, he had only been a Democrat for about a year, and most of the Pennsylvania Democratic rank-and-file were wary of him.

I think what Obama needs to do is figure out whether he really wants to campaign for Democratic candidates or not. He seems to want to have it both ways: do some fundraising and maybe make one half-hearted rally appearance, while at the same time keeping the candidates at arms' length, in case they fail. George W. Bush was a lot of things, but he wasn't shy about campaigning for Republicans up and down the ballot.


[ Parent ]
Well
Deeds ran away from Obama it was only when it was clear when he needed his base that he called him in. Honestly I don't think anyone would have beat McDonnell. Obama helped Corzine. The fact that the race was so close showed that. Corzine should have been crushed. Coakley did not lose because of Obama. She lost because she ran the worst political campaign in years. As for Specter, Obama was just doing his job. He has to keep Senators happy and he needed Specter to be happy so he could get his legislative victories. He kept a promise plain and simply. The DCC backed Case not Obama.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I am just getting up and about
Wow, those results came quickly. I think people that are saying Hawaii always reelects incumbents and the other side who is saying Djou is doomed to lose in November are both off. It will be hard for Djou to win, but if 2 things happen I think it will be a very close race.

1.) Djou has to build some moderate credentials. I know he will only be in the House for 4 months, but there are votes he can take and bills he can co-sponsor to help burgeon his middle of the road image. If he votes for the financial regulatory bill, I think it is a sign he will be heading for a competitive November. Not to make one vote so important, but I think voting against that bill is the path to being the answer to a political trivia question instead of a full term congressman.

2.) The Democrats need to have an ugly primary fight. If Case drops out and Hanabusa had the primary battle to herself, I think it will be very hard for Djou to be victorious in the general election. The Democratic Party is so large in this district that if they are united, there should be no way a Republican wins in the Fall.

If both of the above happen, I think it will be a very competitive race in November. Otherwise, I think the Democratic candidate will likely win by a 5%+ margin.


Anybody else feel strangely
Ambivalent about this today? Though I'm sure it wouldn't be the case if Critz hadn't won Tuesday night!

Yeah, I am too
I mean, I wish we would've won the race, but the mitigating factor involved and the fact that I'm confident we'll win the race in November leaves me rather calm (well, as close to calm as I can get ;))

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
I would be so panicked if Critz had also lost
But Critz won, and he won fairly big. So I don't even see HI-01 on the WaPo Website front page. It's news that will blow over by the end of the day, water pressure will go down during commercial breaks on ABC this evening,

and by tomorrow morning, the focus will be back on the oil spill, and (hopefully) how Republicans will shoot themselves in both feet by coming out for more offshore oil drilling.

And the headline isn't even so bad, "GOP wins seat in Obama's home district".

I read it -- and there's an implicit "a seat" in the headline. Aka, if I didn't know better, I'd think it must be one of four seats in that district or something.  


[ Parent ]
Politico doesn't even have it prominently on their page
This one seem to be mostly under the radar so far.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
A Saturday night election in Hawaii
tends to fall in a media black hole.

[ Parent ]
Unknown for November - regular voting
I assume it's regular voting (not mail-in) in HI-01 in November. What does that mean for the makeup of the electorate? Does that help or hurt Djou / Ds?

(I haven't found any exit polls for the election, which might have helped answer the question)


and the date of the primary is...?
sept 18th - the latest of the year - am i right?

which sucks as it may mean 3.5 more months of this crap between hanabusa and case.  nonetheless, i expect either will have a significant advantage over djou in nov and i can't imagine case endorsing djou (case may be a more moderate dem but that doesn't make him a republican).

just because hanabusa won by a handful more votes doesn't prove that she was a better candidate in a two-way. It was the DCCC's calculation that Case, as a moderate who had locked horns with dems in the past, was in a better position to win head-to-head with an angry GOPer and a disproportionately angry electorate (as Critz did so well in PA).  


HI-01 Results Thread | 232 comments

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