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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

by: James L.

Fri May 21, 2010 at 7:47 PM EDT


UPDATE (David):

James L. :: Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 144 comments
The hard cuts in that video are used badly
and make it look like a YouTube Poop.

Also, apparently, the horse supports it.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

I love this guy
He looks like it's a commercial for a high fiber diet.
Wild west in Alabama?
What does the Alabama Agriculture Commissioner even do?  Maybe its me, but I really do not understand the rationale behind electing all these commissioners in some states.  I know it has its roots in the Progressive Era and it was suppose to make these agencies independent, but why do we still have them?  


23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
Plenty of reasons, I would guess
but most likely they're still around because they're stepping stones for ambitious politicians. Attorneys General can preen in the spotlight of prosecuting criminals, while other state-level officials can sit back and collect a fat paycheck while getting their name out in the state as much as possible. (Similar question: what exactly does a state Treasurer do? I doubt they're sitting behind a desk writing out checks.)
[ Parent ]
No, that's the Controller who is sitting behind that desk
   The Treasurer figures out where to invest the state's money while it is the Controller who pays the bills.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
Glorious
This is the greatest ad i've seen all week.  Equally hilarious in comparison to the ad mocking evolution from the Alabama governor's race that was out i think last week.

One major factual inaccuracy though... about the thousands of illegals flooding into Alabama.

to be clear.. NO ONE tries to break into Alabama.  They all try to get out of Alabama.

LOL
I can imagine the rednecks now. "I love that there commercial and how he speaks American and what not, and he got a gun and looks like he just bout ta be goin huntin so he must be just like me, hell I best be gettin out ta vote for this there guy".    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Seriously
To top this, a candidate would literally have to shoot a small animal with an oversized shotgun while riding a tractor (John Deere, obvs), then break a wild mustang and deliver its newborn foal, then spit some chaw into an empty Budweiser can, hoist up his camouflage britches and save a small blond child from some sort of wild boar stampede. But even then....

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
Paging Rick Perry


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
LOL
Good call. He has been awfully quiet lately.

A Rick Perry ad would probably involve Chuck Norris, somehow, which might truly be the only way to top Dale Peterson.

Speaking of, anyone know how Bill White is doing? I'm hoping he's just quietly raising megatons of money and wooing moderates. I think he might just surprise everybody. Even Texas has a limit to how much crazy is acceptable. It's just unfortunate that, like a lot of things in Texas, the crazy limit is a whole lot bigger than elsewhere.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Have we...
crossed the Rachel Maddow Threshold, per Robert Stacy McCain?

Ever since the  MSNBC host's denunciation of a Tim James TV ad  catapulted James to superstar status in the Alabama GOP gubernatorial primary, the Rachel Maddow Threshold (RMT) has become the new gold standard in conservative campaign advertising.

In one of the delicious ironies of the Obama Age, Republican consultants are conspiring feverishly to produce TV commercials that exceed the RMT and get their candidates condemned on the Liberal Network No One Ever Watches.


[ Parent ]
Cao
I was thinking of what Joseph Cao should have done instead of sticking to his weary re-election bid. I know he wants another term in the House but I don't think it's going to happen. What he should have done is get a conservative as hell voting record, go farther to the right that DeMint, and attend as many Tea Parties as humanly possible. Of course he would not stand a chance in his district but he could have primaried Vitter if he did all of that. I remember polls showing Dardene competitive and if Cao would not have started off moderate he would have been a formidable candidate in the primary. He is likely to lose his seat over his HCR flip-flop and I wonder if he regrets not taking on Vitter.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Other options
Mayor of New Orleans (w/ moderate record). With the large Dem field, he could have snuck in.
Lt. Gov- he could run for lt gov special election
AG- would be a strong AG candidate in 2011
or he could do what you said and run in 2014. Maybe run for vice-chair of the state party or city council in meantime to stay relevant.
[ Parent ]
Isn't
Buddy Caldwell like uber popular? I guess he could have gotten Mayor but it would be tough with Mitch on the ballot. I could possibly see him as lite governor but their are already a lot of people in that race and he would have to work hard for that one. As for 2014 don't you think he has already established himself as too moderate for statewide. Their is a good list of potential candidates already and I believe you said Landrieu will likely retire so it seems that you guys would pick someone more conservative. Just my view though. To be honest do you think he can survive this year in his House seat?  I don't think it's impossible just unlikely.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Yes
He is very popular, especially after HCR. Landrieu is likely to retire, but there is a chance that she could be pressured her to stay if they don't have an obvious replacement (Mitch would seem strong, but not sure if he wants to go to DC). Yeah, in LA, we have a deep bench of candidates for Senate. We have 6 House members (will probably still be 6 by then, swapping La-02 for 3). I could see Cao winning. Very unlikely but possible. He's not hated there. One thing helping him will be the Jefferson appeal trial right around the time of the election. He is still somewhat liked for ridding the city of Bill Jefferson. He will also have support from the large Catholic and Vietnamese communities. I could see him making it especially if Juan LaFonta is the nominee. There was a rumor a few months ago that State Sen. Ed Murray, a former candidate for mayor and a popular figure among Republicans and Democrats could run as an indy. If he did, Cao has a good chance.  
[ Parent ]
Why
is Landrieu likely to retire? She won't even be 60 in 2014.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Maybe
she might be tired of having to face tough reelections.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
That was my thought.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
That
and she has reportedly told her family she doesn't think she can win again in LA. The Bayou Buzz reported this awhile back, they aren't always the most reliable though.  
[ Parent ]
Haha, the Bayou Buzz
Didn't they report some strange stuff involving either Vitter or Jindal retiring once?  I'm not going to trust them.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Blanco
They said she wanted to run again for gov in 2011. No one believed them. They are wrong sometimes, but they also broke news about Juan LaFonta's LA-02 run about 6 months before he announced.  
[ Parent ]
where is the wave?
My favorite comment, from a fantastic week full of great stuff:
"If you can't win a seat that is trending Republican in a year like this, then where is the wave?"
-- Former Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA), quoted by the New York Times, on Democrats winning the PA-12 special election last night.
http://politicalwire.com/archi...
Davis was NRCC chairman for 2 cycles, so he knows a thing or two about elections.
IIRC, he bailed from running in 2008 because he thought he'd be bounced at the VA GOP nominating convention by the extremely conservative activist GOP delegates. Sort of early teabaggers?
Agree
The whole Tea Party affecting GE's is just a bunch of hype in my view. I doubt tea partiers make up a significant portion of voters in 2010 and to those it does affect would probably vote Republican 9 times out of 10 anyway. I think it does have some affect in terms of primaries but overall if the Republicans do well in 2010 I don't think it will be because of the Tea Party.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
To quote Rendell...
"The tea party does not matter."  Whomever wins in November will do it by winning the majority of the 60 to 80 suburban and exurban seats that are actually at play.  These areas are traditionally Republican, but voted Democratic for the last few elections because either they were fed up with the southern control of the party or upset over spending.  Republicans have done well suburban areas since Obama was elected like northern Virginia, southeastern Pennsylvania, suburban Boston, metro New York and New Jersey.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
To be honest
I don't know that any of the few minor elcetions that have happened since Obama was elected paint a picture of any kind, neither for Dems nor Repubs.  
[ Parent ]
Sestak
said on American Morning that his district is 53% Republican, 35% Democrat...so basically Brian Lentz has to run the table with independents and get quite a few Republicans to crossover. That's a Goliath task even in the best of circumstances.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
There are a lot of registered Republicans in the Philly suburbs who now vote Democratic
Besides, Gore, Kerry, and Obama all won here: by no means is this still a GOP stronghold.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Exactly
I think Sestak is trying to drum up business (donations) for Lentz since Sestak is suddenly popular.  The statistics he used are kind of silly to bring up, since Sestak himself won this district twice and didn't necessarily have to run a perfect campaign either time to win.

As you said, the Philly burbs voting doesn't match their party registration, not just Sestak's district either I don't think.  its been a while but I think even Gerlach's district doesn't follow the patter either, as it has always seemed more Repub registration but Dem voting, just not enough to get Lois Murphy over the hump.

[ Parent ]
The PVI of PA-7 is D+3
That says a lot more about the current voting habits of the district than does party ID.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
[ Parent ]
Voting habits across the ballot
Sure these districts look Democratic when you look at the presidential races, but the registration really matches what the local and state government representation in these areas.  The Democrats do very poorly in the state legislative and judicial and local races for some reason.

Everyone looks at PVI but ignores what actually happens at the polls in every other race.  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

[ Parent ]
turnout
I think a lot of that has to do with turnout.  Local races tend to have low turnout and see mostly older voters and people with established ties to the area.  In the Philly suburbs, that group trends Republican.  The younger voters and people who've moved to the area within the last 15-20 years are the ones who tend to be more Democratic, and fewer of them vote in odd-numbered years.  I've seen some low turnout in those local elections, except for when people are really, really pissed about something.

As far as state legislature, it's gotten a bit better for us in the last 6 years or so, but there are still established Republican incumbents holding onto some of those seats.  Of course, I really only know Montco with regards to the state legislature.  Have many new Republicans been elected in Delco recently?

[ Parent ]
You are so right about PVI
And people using percentages all the time is another annoying trend.

One trend that isn't annoying but that probably needs to be re-buffed in PA is the value of judicial races.  Repubs have dominated judicial races in PA forever it seems and yet so much of the tilt of local, state and federal voting patterns have trended at least a little democratci and maybe very democratic depending on which areas you look at.  It just seems the judicial races have no impact/correclation with the other races.

Maybe, as Sideshow Bob said on the Simpsons, we "deep down want someone cut taxes, brutalize criminals and rule us like a king"  The legislative wins could at least take care of the last 2 LOL.  

[ Parent ]
If anything,
teabaggers are as good for us this cycle as the CFG was in the last two cycles, at least if Rand Paul's free-market Libertarian Tourette's is any indication.  
[ Parent ]
Teabaggers are not new
The teabaggers are not a new creation.  They are just the joining of the Ron Paul Good Standard lovers and a few other nutcase groups.  Part of me likes the teabaggers because they counter the fundies.  

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
The Virginia GOP screwed Davis but good
It's funny because Davis could have made it a race against Mark Warner.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Really?
He may have done better but I still think Warner would have crushed him. A very popular former Governor in a very good year. I doubt Davis would have broke the 40% mark. Still, like I said earlier, he would have been much better than Gilmore. I suppose a 2008 run could have helped him get more exposure for a possible 2012 run against Webb.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I think he would have broken 40
Davis is pretty moderate, politically savvy, and very well connected. I don't think he could have beat Warner in the 2008 environment, but doing better than 60-40 would have been well within his reach. Rumor had it that he was actually looking at bailing from the race once Warner announced and the convention was just a convenient excuse to exit the race.  
[ Parent ]
I think he might have broken 40%
Probably not much better than that, but even with the Presidential election, I wonder if the Republicans would've lost VA-02 and VA-05 had the Senate race been less lop-sided.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Davis has always been a pretty canny politician
I think he saw which way the wind was blowing and knew he didn't have a shot. The convention hurdle is part of it, but it's also kind of an excuse.
[ Parent ]
Warner has 200 Million Reasons
why he would have beaten Davis.
[ Parent ]
Don't get me wrong, Davis would've lost to Warner
I have no doubts about that, but there's a big difference between losing by 30 points and losing by 15 points (and that could have been enough to keep Perriello and Nye from winning)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
The irony is
Jim Gilmore only narrowly won the nomination over far-right nutbag State Del. Bob Marshall. Whenever the Republican party nominates someone in Virginia by convention, it's usually an embarrassment.
[ Parent ]
Ah yes
AG Ken "The Kookie" Cucinelli comes to mind. I cannot believe that Virginia elected a nut like him.


19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
shit happens

[ Parent ]
I think I can sum up my reaction to that ad very succinctly:
.....

O_o

Sigh.

....that is all.  

PA-SEN
Ras' poll suggests that Sestak is starting the contest in a very good place.

If Sestak can pull this off, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him in the VP slot on the 2016 ticket (in terms of his political profile, he reminds of a more military Joe Biden).

Absolutely
I can honestly envision myself casting a ballot for that man for President someday. I could see him running in 2016. Although that means he would have to lose his Senate seat. However he did talk about a lot about giving up his House seat in Congress for the benefit of the people or something like that.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Sestak is aiming higher than VP.
He wants to be President, not Vice President.
[ Parent ]
I still can't believe he pulled it out.
He was behind by double digits for the longest time and suddenly surged with that ad campaign.  It was a genuine political blitzkrieg.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Wow
We're jumping the gun a bit aren't we?  From Senate nominee to Presidential candidate in the span of a week?  We dont know yet what will happen tomorrow, we might want to help him win his Senate seat first....
[ Parent ]
True,
but given the amount of media circle-jerking that's surrounded the never-gonna-happen presidential candidacy of Rick Perry and/or the also-never-gonna-happen vice presidential candidacy of Marco Rubio both in 2012, Sestak somewhere on the ticket in 2016 at least seems plausible considering he has a much higher chance of actually winning his race.

Still, I agree it's premature, but wouldn't it be awesome if it were true?

(I still think a Schweitzer-Sestak ticket would be awesome.)  

[ Parent ]
Meh, the Rubio talk started...
Before he even won the primary. For that matter, this IS about the time the Obama talk started. ;)

That being said, the stories of his staff management would be a bigger factor in a campaign for the WH, at least to me. Even if you think he wouldn't try to push around the Cabinet like that, even WH CoS and Press Secretary are important offices for the country and the party.

[ Parent ]
CT-Sen: Blumenthal or bust
Dick Blumenthal nominated by acclamation:

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

will be interesting to see
the next round of polling. It's good that this came out in May rather than September/October.
[ Parent ]
I hope it's not bust
Blumenthal's fudging on Vietnam is going to be an ongoing problem in the campaign.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Good new

Lose Blumenthal now would be a problem.
[ Parent ]
now mean before the elections

of course. I hope he can survive. I think his defense is so strong and the NYT is in troubles now.

[ Parent ]
CT GOP Convention
McMahon led after first ballot. Calling for switches now. Most Schiff delegates switching to her, some Simmons delegates. She could win it after the switches. Simmons would probably drop out, Schiff is gathering sigs.  
Great we snatch a laugher of race from
being competitive. Congrats to future senator Blumenthal.  
[ Parent ]
McMahon has tons of baggage.
They should have gone with Simmons, he's the more pragmatic choice.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Apparently the GOP is interested in making
statements, and by statements I mean, "Hey we are unreformed and still bat shit crazy!" I'm really disgusted by this and the Kentucky race, it is like we don't want the majority.  
[ Parent ]
If I were a Republican, I'd back Simmons.
Sure her tons of campaign cash would be tempting, but she doesn't have the political pedigree and relatively clean history of Simmons.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
There is also the flip side of that
She's an outsider in an outsider's year. Also it seems like she might have a lot of good material on him from her oppo research team. I had been somewhat supporting her until yesterday, when I decided Simmons would be better. Now I support her since she won the endorsement and hope Simmons will run for his old house seat, even though someone has already been endorsed there.  
[ Parent ]
Though
WWE (crude violence, nudity, steroids, etc) has more negatives attached to it than let's say eBay or HP. (Carly Fiorina is only sinking because she screwed up HP bad.)

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Agreed, she shouldn't be underestimated
This is at least a Lean Dem race, but she's got the resources and political notive status to keep things somewhat competitive. If you believe the Ras polls, she's actually ahead by a modest margin among Indies.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
you know, there is such a thing as too outsider-y
Rand paul probably fits that description. Possibly also Fiorina though I don't know much about her political skills  
[ Parent ]
Agreed on both points
Whenever people would talk about polls showing voters would rather have a beer with Bush than Kerry, I would think: "Do you really want your drinking buddies to have access to the nuclear launch codes?"

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
She won endorsement
http://www.nhregister.com/arti...
Simmons, Schiff plan to petition on the ballot.  
[ Parent ]
Huh. URL changed.
It's now here.

Simmons said afterward he plans to run in a primary, although in the past he has said he would honor the convention's decision.

"I believe there's a lot of time left in this campaign and I have sufficient funds to make a compelling case to voters before the primary" Aug. 10, Simmons said.

"I believe the best thing I can do to help the Republican Party to victory in November is to give them another choice and that's why I intend to stay in this race."

With only 3 percent of the tally, Schiff must gather enough petition signatures to make his way onto the ballot.

Earlier, the candidates sounded hopeful. "I think she's solid, where she should be," said delegate Brian Ladouceur Jr. of Avon. "I think the Schiff people will shift to her side. They're independent people."

Schiff, however, was counting on a second ballot to have more delegates switch to him. "I know I've got a lot of people who've told me they were going to vote for me on the second ballot," Schiff said. That turned out not to be true as many of his delegates switched to McMahon or Simmons.

Schiff also said he thought he'd have a better chance than Simmons against McMahon in the Aug. 10 primary.

This is interesting.  What's going to happen now?  Do you think Simmons and Schiff will really go ahead with their plans to still challenge McMahon in the Aug. 10 primary?

[ Parent ]
IA-03
NRCC favorite Jim Gibbons released a new tv ad today. I don't see anything compelling about his message, and I continue to believe State Senator Brad Zaun will win the primary.

Bottom line: I doubt any of these clowns poses a real threat to Leonard Boswell. We are fortunate that the GOP ran its strongest candidates against him (Jeff Lamberti) in 2006, a great year for Iowa Democrats.

I know you are confident about Boswell winning
but what about coattail effects from the governor's race? Could a large Branstad victory hurt him? I have no idea, I'm out of state and would like to know your thoughts.  
[ Parent ]
I think the bigger worry
is poor base turnout because Democrats are uninspired, as opposed to Branstad prompting lots of people to vote a straight Republican ticket. Most of the Democrats I talk to are not worried about Culver dragging down the whole ticket. Iowans have split tickets many times before.

The Iowa Democratic Party's turnout machine is pretty strong, and in an off-year election they tend to focus on unreliable voters. There's a very large pool of unreliable voters in IA-03, because Democratic voter registration gains in Polk County (Des Moines area) were strong around the time of the Iowa caucuses.

I wouldn't write off Culver yet, by the way. Right now Branstad is favored, but he has some potential vulnerabilities as a candidate.

[ Parent ]
Rand Paul
I live in the Louisville media market and I am loving all of the very negative coverage Paul has been receiving. It's been in all of the news promos and everything.  To the uneducated voter Paul plain and simply sounds like a racist weirdo. I don't think he's a racist, just a weirdo. It is amazing how he is imploding. He sounds like a whiney pampered baby wondering why people aren't just talking about his victory. Why would he wonder why the honeymoon is over? This is a freaking campaign for US Senate. It ain't meant to be a honeymoon in any way Rand! Canceling Meet The Press over "exhaustion" now that just has Martha Coakley written all over it. Get some sleeping pills or something, how do expect to do those 16+ hour days on Capitol Hill?  Meet The Press is a good opportunity to try and back track some more and do damage control. But no he keeps on blabbing with the whole BP thing. Not even DeMint will stick up for him. Wow I sincerely hope I'm not offending any Republican users but Paul is plain and simply an idiot. Congrats Senator Conway!  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Ughh.....
Replace sleeping pills with a redbull or something of that nature.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Nope he is a bad candidate, and that is being
overly polite IMO, I just hope it serves a lesson to that grassroots that sometimes the establishment knows what it is talking about, especially when it comes to situations where the politician is related to Ron Paul.  
[ Parent ]
True.
Trey Grayson would likely win this election had he won the primary since he keeps his wits about him.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
The only...
saving grace for Paul is that all this is coming out now in May, rather than at a more damaging time like in October.

Although, given just how damaging this information is, I don't know if he can recover from that.  But we'll see.  Kentucky's disappointed me quite a few times before.

[ Parent ]
Rand Paul
He's the kind of guy who, instead of apologizing for something and everyone moving on, he would stand by his comments and call you un-American for doubting him. He's going to be a good time for the next couple of months.

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)
[ Parent ]
Sue Lowden all over again
At least we get Rand Paul to laugh about for sure.
[ Parent ]
The FlipSide of that saving grace is...
That this is coming out RIGHT at the BEGINNING of the GE campaign- i.e., this is the first thing people are going to learn about him.

That being said, I'll be surprised if the specific things he SAID are all that damaging- what's really damaging is he's clearly not suited for this. I'd expect a(nother?) meltdown before the campaign is over, especially if Conway can find a way to get under his skin.

[ Parent ]
"Senator Conway" might be a little premature...
but still, I didn't think I'd be rating this race "Likely D" at all, much less 72 hours after the primary.

Also, it just occurred to me that Rand Paul's prima donna behavior reminds me a lot of Snelly Gibbr showing up for her 2 months as a lame-duck Congresswoman and throwing a fit that she didn't get personally welcomed to Washington by President Bush. Maybe it's just that most Republican doctors who get lucky in politics turn out to be total a-holes.  

[ Parent ]
True
"Senator Conway" was just for dramatic effect. Although I think it's safe to move this race from between lean and likely R to a tossup.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I wish forget not WI-Gov and NH-Sen this weekend
I think democratic prospects in WI-Gov and NH-Sen are better than last (pro-republican) polls for these races show.

And I hope Djou loses tomorrow for HI-01.

I think Ed Case needs to hang it up
He lost his seat trying to primary a popular incumbent Senator, he doesn't deserve going back to Washington with such a self centered move.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
Good thing people in Pennsylvania didn't think that way
I'm no fan of Case, but running against an 82 year old incumbent is no sin.

If anyone thinks they can do a good job for this country, they should run for office based on their own merits, not on whether some old dude has died or not.

[ Parent ]
Sure,
and you can make an argument that Akaka hasn't been a terribly effective Senator that could justify a primary. Still, I don't think Case's motivations were particularly noble then, just as his stinking up the special election now is clearly due to his pathological narcissism. (Otherwise he'd have stepped back for the good of the party and let Hanabusa win.) The guy really is Joe Lieberman in a grass skirt.

The especially stupid thing is that he's going to come in third in the special, and every time he does these things he just alienates Hawaiians more....and there's a good chance Akaka will retire in 2012. He could've positioned himself as the guy Hawaiians wanted to elect next time there was a Senate vacancy (Inouye isn't going to last forever either), but instead he's blown his political capital on vanity runs for offices he has no hope in hell of getting, DC backing or no.  

[ Parent ]
Akaka
You're wrong. Akaka is planning to run for reelection again in 2012, when he'll be 88. Regardless of what happens in HI-01 this year, Case will run for Senate in '12.
[ Parent ]
Polling suggests Case will be second
But I guess in the strange circumstances anything could happen.
[ Parent ]
C'mon, he came with 10 points of Akaka
That was no vanity run.  He'll probably win this seat in November.

I don't care for his not-progressive-enough politics in such a liberal state, but narcissism and Lieberman talk is silly.  He has run as a Democrat, and not sabotaged anyone or anything.

And where does this third thing come from?  he has been first or second in basically every poll.

[ Parent ]
He
does have a lot of connection to Lieberman. They had similar issues when it came to foreign policy and they are close. Case did endorse Lieberman even after he went indy. I'm glad Case lost but I would agree that he did have a lot of establishment support in his 2006 run.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I can guarantee you
that win or lose, Case will be running for office again in the future. It seems like he needs to be in politics.
[ Parent ]
Really?
So you think Ayotte is down or at least Hodes is closer? Hodes has been high single digits back the whole race.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
[ Parent ]
Yes

I think Ayotte is not stronger than Burr (NC) or Toomey (PA).

The last no-Rasmussen poll gives to Ayotte double digits, I think this is not real.

[ Parent ]
Haley surges in SC
I know it's rasmussen so all the caveats included but they show a massive surge for Nikki Haley in the South Carolina GOP Governor primary:
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

This could well be the Tea Party's third big victory of this election cycle so far.


At least until Jim Rex nails her to the wall.
The teabaggers only actually "win" if she wins a general election. Everything else is bloviating. Though I do think she has better chances against Rex than a complete douchebag idiot (not a contradiction in this case) like Andre Bauer. Still, Jim DeMint and his buddies aren't as popular as they think they are, even in S. Carolina, and Haley's connections to Sanford are going to hurt in the fall.  
[ Parent ]
Finally he announces
 It took him about a year to finally say it but we know what job he wants.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/201...

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

Obviously the major race of the weekend is the HI-01 special
I hope SSP has a separate thread on it. Djou has really benefited from a split Democratic vote and I'd say there is a 70% chance he wins the seat. Don't think the narrative will as strong as with PA-12 because of the split Dem vote and the fact that it will be much harder for the GOP to defend this seat in November than if they had picked up John Murtha's seat.
I'd go higher than 70%
the DCCC would have stayed in if thought it had a 1 in 3 chance of winning.  
[ Parent ]
I think they've been counting votes already
mail-in votes as of a couple of days ago. So I'm thinking they'll have some results online soon after the deadline, 6 pm Hawaii time (9pm pacific daylight time).

So it would be a late night thread, especially for SSP users on the east coast.  

[ Parent ]
What happens if a candidate in Kentucky drops out after the primary?
I'm kinda worried this will happen with Paul.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Looks like the state party can choose a replacement
http://www.lrc.state.ky.us/KRS...

Presumably they'd put Grayson in the driver's seat. He's an uninspiring candidate, but as a non-crazy, would probably eke out a win.

[ Parent ]
That's what I was afraid of


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Rand seems far to stubborn to drop out


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Yeah
no way Rand Paul drops out. He would not leave without a fight.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
The good news is that there's no way to un-nominate Rand without his consent
The Kentucky GOP can scream, cry, threaten, beg, bribe, or move to Tennessee: if Rand won't leave then he's their nominee.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Maybe Not
If Grayson were substituted for Paul, some Paul supporters might stay home. I'd be pretty P/Oed if the candidate I voted for and won in the primary got pressured out for the loser.

So Republicans might do better with Grayson, but he might reduce the so-called enthusiasm gap, and the outcome might still be in doubt. I think a lot would depend on how the Paul followers react: how many of them are strategic, and how many are uncompromising true believers?

[ Parent ]
Absolutely no chance
It would have reverberations across the country for the entire GOP.
[ Parent ]
what makes you think that any of this will even hurt
Paul in the polls?  We don't have any evidence (yet) that Kentucky voters give a shit that Paul holds these views (if anything, people might think that he's being picked on by the librul media, and support him more).  This is Kentucky we're talking about here.
[ Parent ]
Because I still somehow have some shreds of believe in humanity.
And hope that most people there are appalled at the thought of saying businesses should be free to discriminate based on race.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
DailyKos Poll
Taken immediately before the primary showed that Conway was only 3 points back of Paul. Now, it IS DailyKos, which is a liberal poll, but I would think that all the bad press, couples with Grayson supporters saying that they won't go near Paul, have given Conway a boost.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyo...

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

[ Parent ]
A bit incorrect
A liberal source paid for the poll, not conducted it.
[ Parent ]
BS
Most Kentuckians are not ignorant racists hicks and the ones who are probably don't vote  or vote Republican anyway. This will hurt and hurt bad. I can't wait to see a new non Rassy poll. I can tell you that Paul has been receiving HORRIBLE press and just to say all Kentuckians are racist and will drift towards Paul because of his comments is highly inaccurate.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
GA-Gov: Barnes (D) new ad

I like the message.  First, make sure people remember that things were better when Barnes was governor.  Second, heal the rift with teachers and remind them that Perdue has been disasterous for them.  Three, possibly reach out to suburbanites who may not typically vote Democratic by dealing with foreclosures.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Sounds a lot like Branstad
This is striking me as a year where being an insider or retread will be a hindrance in federal elections but beneficial in governor's races, particularly if you left the state in good fiscal shape.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
That's why I feel good about Jerry Brown's chances also.


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
WA-Sen: Rossi expected to announce within a week that he's running
http://senatus.wordpress.com/2...

I have to admit the last few months of his non-candidacy (capping with him giving a speech about taking advantage of foreclosures) has me a lot less worried about him.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


Agreed
It seems that I have heard these "announcements" of an eminent Rossi run that never pan out. If he does run he will not win. If he would have gotten in earlier then I think he would stand a good chance but at this point I don't think he can make up the time. I can't wait for him to finally run or decline to enter so we don't have to hear how is just about to make an announcement all of the time. Seriously if I was Michael Steele I would have pressured him to either get in or let someone who doesn't have to spend months of contemplating take his place.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Bring it on
The GOP are obsessed with Scott Brown. They have taken completely the wrong message from his win.
[ Parent ]
Will he or won't he?
To run or not to run?  That is the question.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
irrelevant
Go and Catch A Falling Star

Go and catch a falling star,
Get with child a mandrake root,
Tell me where all past years are,
Or who cleft the devil's foot,
Teach me to hear mermaids singing,
Or to keep off envy's stinging,
And find
What wind
Serves to advance an honest mind.

If thou be'st born to strange sights,
Things invisible to see,
Ride ten thousand days and nights,
Till age snow white hairs on thee,
Thou, when thou return'st, wilt tell me,
All strange wonders that befell thee,
And swear,
No where
Lives a woman true, and fair.

If thou find'st one, let me know,
Such a pilgrimage were sweet;
Yet do not, I would not go,
Though at next door we might meet;
Though she were true, when you met her,
And last, till you write your letter,
Yet she
Will be
False, ere I come, to two, or three.


La-Sen- Cain not running
I can't find a link- its just stated on the front page of www.lapolitics.com
Who's Cain?
We're not talking about the guy with a late brother named Abel, are we?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
former state sen
He ran a close race for Insurance Comm. in 2006. He has close ties to evangelical leaders in the state and flirted with a primary of indy challenge.  
[ Parent ]
Rasmussen jumps its biggest shark yet!......
We all laughed hard at Rasmussen's KY-Sen post-primary poll that had Rand Paul up 59-34.

But now Rasmussen has topped that with AR-Sen:  Boozman 66, Lincoln 28.  No, not a typo.  They have it 66-28.  As in, the kind of numbers Andrew Cuomo gets against all comers in NY-Gov.

And they have Boozman up 60-33 on Halter, which would be laughable by itself if not for the Lincoln match-up.

I've lost all remaining respect for Rasmussen, not that I had much left for them anyway.  But these numbers are beyond what make sense to anyone at all.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

Those
numbers don't seem like they were even from "polls"

Boozman in the 50s? Maybe. 60s? No.

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
Exactly
66% would require something 95% of Republicans, 80% of Indes, and 30% of Democrats.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
*something like


Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
I subscribe and can see crosstabs, and you're scary close.....
They've got Boozman getting 93R, 79I, and 28D, almost exactly what you guessed.

They've got Boozman pulling in 42% of black voters and 97%(!) of other racial minorities.

They've got Boozman winning 33% of liberals.

Oh, and in other scientifically relevant questions in this poll, Rasmussen has 58% of Arkansas "likely voters" saying yes, America is the "last, best hope of mankind," and also 48% saying that a "group of people randomly selected from the phone book" would "do a better job addressing the nation's problems than Congress."

Ya think Scotty Rasmussen has an agenda?  Ya think?

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
You know
It would be nice if you could or if you want to post the crosstabs for the KY-SEN race. Then we can see what kind of things they made up in that race (and others).

There's no way any of that is true ... especially the minorities and liberals. There is no way that is a poll of Arkansas as a whole.  

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

[ Parent ]
It's a poll of Raskansas
Speaking of KY-Sen, my new theory for that poll is that Scotty polled Republican primary voters, and just changed Grayson to Conway because he figured that all Grayson voters would cast a protest vote for Conway and no Dems would vote because of the LOLENTHUSIASMGAP.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
No way
John Boozman pulls in 42% of black voters and 97% of other racial minorities. And winning 33% of liberals? They treat him like he's the John Hoeven/Mark Warner of Arkansas.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
A suspect a Boozman/Lincoln race would look like...
Dem - 42%
GOP - 40%
Indie - 18%

Boozman - 17/95/62 = 56%
Lincoln - 83/5/38 = 44%

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
RI-01: David Segal (D) raises "almost" $50k in 9 days
http://www.rifuture.org/david-...

Not sure whether almost means 49k or 35k. Either way, I'm still undecided about who I'm voting for.

On a slightly unrelated topic, I'd appreciate it if someone could help because the RI BoE site is a bit unclear. Do absentee ballots have to be received or postmarked by the date of an election? The primary is September 14, and I'm going to leave the country at the end of August, so I'll leave too early to vote in person but too late to be sure my ballot would arrive by the primary date.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

Colorado state convention results
via the Denver Post...

Senate (D)

Romanoff - 60.4%
Bennet - 39.6%

Senate (R)

Ken Buck - 77%
Cleve Tidwell - 15%
Others - 3%

Norton and Wiens didn't participate.

Governor (R)

Dan Maes - 49.35%
Scott McInnis - 48.89%
some other guy - 1%

I guess all that really matters is that Bennet's
going to be on the ballot. I know Ken Salazar lost in 2004, but what % did he get?

The governor thing is interesting too. Did McInnis just get teabagged?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
AZ-Sen: former State Rep. Cathy Eden running for Dem nod
http://azstarnet.com/news/loca...

She ran the state Department of Health Services under Govs Hull and Napolitano, so she may have some connections beyond her time in the legislature.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


Can
she self finance like Glassman is what I would like to know.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Is this for real????
Rasmussen's outdone themselves this time!!

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

It's not Real, it's Rassmussen
(tm)
[ Parent ]
WI-Sen
Leinenkugel has dropped out and endorsed Ron Johnson. Ron Johnson is starting his speech to convention delegates. He is the last to speak. Voting will take place after he is done. He may be able to win the nomination today
Goodbye
to the man without whose sex scandal there would be no John Boehner: Buz Lukens.
The guy didn't resign his seat despite
being indicted, tried and convicted of "contributing to the delinquency of a minor".  
Man, that what a different era back in 1989. Boehner beat him in the 1990 primary.
[ Parent ]
IN-03: Special election in question

Gov. Mitch Daniels seems less than convinced that holding a special election is worth the considerable expense when, at least according to his numbers, the winner would only serve "20 days", according to "somebody".

 FWIW, Dan Parker, the state Dem chairman, seems to be with Daniels on this. 



Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
So if no IN-03 special election is held
then that IN-03 open seat kind of offsets the HI-01 seat that just went from open to Repub yesterday.  Leaving the House balance unchanged from the week before. Sounds good.

Just thinking: Hawaii went vote-by-mail to save considerable money holding yesterday's special election. Maybe other states need to start looking at that possibility, too.

[ Parent ]
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 144 comments

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