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MN-Gov: Dayton Leads Primary, General

by: James L.

Thu May 20, 2010 at 8:00 PM EDT


Minnesota Public Radio/Humphrey Institute (5/13-16, adults):

Mark Dayton (DFL): 35
Tom Emmer (R): 31
Tom Horner (IP): 8
Undecided/Other: 25

Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL): 29
Tom Emmer (R): 31
Tom Horner (IP): 10
Undecided/Other: 30

Matt Entenza (DFL): 28
Tom Emmer (R): 32
Tom Horner (IP): 11
Undecided/Other: 29
(MoE: ±5.8%)

DFL primary:

Mark Dayton (DFL): 38
Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL): 28
Matt Entenza (DFL): 6
Undecided/Other: 28
(MoE: "higher than" ±5.8%)

MPR and the wonks at the University of Minnesota's Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs have teamed up for the first public poll of the Democratic gubernatorial primary since state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher won the DFL endorsement in late April. Their results give ex-Sen. Mark Dayton a reason to smile, as he's coming out on top in the DFL primary, and is the only Democrat to lead Tom Emmer in the general election. Bear in mind, though, that MPR didn't screen for likely voters, and their less than forthcoming attitude towards the primary sample's margin of error suggests that the DFL-only sample size may be smaller than we'd see from other pollsters.

James L. :: MN-Gov: Dayton Leads Primary, General
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Dayton may be a marshmellow
But I'd gladly take him if only to drive nail in that goofus DFL process.

I
think Dayton is much better than Kelliher. I just can't believe we passed on Ryback.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I
agreed....Rybak was by far and away our best bet...we blew it here.  Thankfully, it seems Dayton can actually save us.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

[ Parent ]
Write-in!
Write Rybak in. It's a short name. RT Rybak. 7 letters is not hard to remember. Better him than the Lizard People. I just don't trust those reptilians.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Dayton's kind of interesting as far as politicians go.
He's been in and out of different offices a few times, takes a few years off, then runs for something else.

Funny that an embarssement like Dayton is doing so good?
I shouldn't he be like Norm Coleman in terms of popularity? Although to be fair I live far away from Minnesota so I have no idea of the political situation there, except that the Governor's race seems to be as tight as it ever was. I suspect the Republicans would be doing much better under a Likely voter screen however.

I'm surprised
I thought he left the Senate in 2006 not only because he hated Washington, but also so the DFL could get a stronger candidate on the ballot.  

[ Parent ]
People dont seem to hold it against him
He's kind of like what people probably thought when they got the choice to vote for Mondale again in 2002; a bit of a geriatric but from the good ole DFL guard with a last name we can all think of fondly.

Mondale and Humphrey have the legacy of being a Senator and VP.  Dayton, however, has the legacy of having the Dayton name, a name with a very nostalgic feeling much like "Mondale" or "Humphrey" but for different reasons.  My aunt still calls Macy's in downtown going to Dayton's, as do my grandparents and several other family numbers.

He's a nice guy, his heart is in the right place, we can trust him to not be shady, he has the last name. And that's why when he fucks up and gets on Time's list of the 5 worst Senators in 05 or 06, we can all just go, well, he's a nice guy, he tries his best and we can trust him.

That's the sense I get anyway.  People hear dumb stuff all the time about what their politicians are doing, at least his whole closing his DC office because of a terrorism scare, which nobody else did and was cited in Time's article as being silly, was still done for the right reasons.  We know we wont get shenanigans like affairs and money laundering from Dayton.  Or that we dont get stuck with some asshole running for Vice President and President his entire 4-year term!


[ Parent ]
But Mondale lost that election to Coleman
And Hubert Humphrey III (wasn't it?) lost to Ventura, right?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
Humphrey, legit point, but losing to Ventura
certainly has to involve something fucked up.  Mondale had 2 weeks to campaign and I have no idea where to find the exit polls but I read on the MN blogs that Coleman did much better with younger voters (and in a 3-point race, that could be the win) because they had no idea who Mondale was.

Hell, maybe even bringing Humphrey and Mondale was wrong; people still dont think poorly because of Dayton and his last name represents an era of MN that's now been taken over by Target, Best Buy and biotech companies.


[ Parent ]
I think Mondale lost
Purely and simply because of the faux outrage over the memorial service. That was the thing that prompted me to start posting on blogs it made me so angry.

[ Parent ]
He's got the name rec
so not at all shocking at this point. But MAK is doing surprisingly well, if Dayton only has a 10 point lead now he's screwed.  

I was kind of thinking the same thing
MAK is not well-known amongst the DFL voting base (yeah, i fucking know!) so she has lots of ground to make up and the ability to do so pretty easily.

She is going to kill it with women, and I read somewhere that women make-up 60% of the DFL primary voters.  If it's just a Dayton/MAK race and if she get in the upper 50th-percentile with women voters, it's probably over.


[ Parent ]
No candidate endorsed by the party polling only 28%
has any real chance.

As long as Dayton doesn't do anything stupid, he has already won.


[ Parent ]
this poll is good news for MAK
dayton is one of the best known politicians in MN in the last 20 years.  He has run statewide in primaries 4 times and as a nominee 3 times...and she only trails him by 10 points before she has even started campaigning to the likely primary voters.

it will be a low-voter turnout primary determined by good direct-mail and strategic tv and radio.  while i was a strong Rybak supporter before, I was very impressed by the MAK campaign's command of data and information and sense of who they needed to talk to, when.

as the PA and KY primaries reminded us once again, what happens in the last two weeks in a primary can decide the whole thing so i don't think there's much to be learned from this poll other than most people don't know who these candidates are or, in dayton's case, have their doubts.



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