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PA-St. House: Primary results improve Democratic chances

by: The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee

Thu May 20, 2010 at 4:19 PM EDT


With everything else on the ballot this past Tuesday (several high-profile congressional and gubernatorial primaries, as well as the PA-12 special election), the Pennsylvania State House primaries went somewhat under the radar.  But as the Pottstown Mercury explains, the results in some key races have put Democrats in a significantly better position to hold the chamber this November:  
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee :: PA-St. House: Primary results improve Democratic chances
Lehigh County Republican Rep. Karen Beyer lost to a 23-year-old upstart who attacked her for supporting budget deals negotiated by Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell and for collecting taxpayer-funded perks.

Rep. Mike Gerber, D-Montgomery, his caucus' leading campaign strategist, said he was encouraged by the results in Beyer's race, as well as the Republican primary for the Williamsport-area district currently held by freshman Rep. Rick Mirabito, D-Lycoming.

In the Williamsport race, the Republican who Mirabito beat two years ago defeated a more moderate candidate who last held the seat.

Gerber said he also was pleased with the quality of his party's winners in multi-candidate races to fill vacancies. Those races will largely determine which party claims the majority come January. Republicans are working to regain majority control of the House, currently held 104-to-99 by the Democrats (...)

As a rule, the DLCC generally does not get directly involved in primary elections.  However, we share Rep. Gerber's enthusiasm for the Democratic winners in open-seat contests (there are 19 open seats in the State House this year), and we agree that Democrats are more likely now to hold the House than we were two days ago.  

Rep. Gerber also serves as the Treasurer of the DLCC's Board of Directors.

Holding the Pennsylvania House is one of the top Democratic priorities this year because of Redistricting.  Republicans dominated the state's redistricting process in 2000 and drew one of the ugliest Republican gerrymanders in the country.  The Republican-drawn congressional maps forced six incumbent Democrats to run against each other and turned a one-seat Republican advantage in Pennsylvania's congressional delegation into a five-seat advantage.    

Democrats fought back in 2006 and 2008, helped by demographic changes and a poisonous national climate for Republicans, but right now the Democratic State House is the key to preventing Republicans from wiping out those gains all over again.  

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Great information and great news!
Thanks for reaching out to us armchair election geeks...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

This is going to be a tough one
Bill DeWeese also won his primary. And I'm not thinking that's such good news.

The 8-year winds are against us in PA. . .


It won't be easy
But nothing worth doing ever is.  I still believe the governor's race is a toss-up, and I think the governor is involved in congrssional re-districting (correct me if I'm wrong).  I tend to think the Dems could hold the house and governor's race and have a big say in re-districting.

Though given the importantce of PA re-districting, I'd be shocked no matter who controls what (as long as its split control) that this ends up in the courts somehow.

If Dems can beat Gerlach and hold Kanjo and Dahlkemper's seats then re-districting would be a lot better for Dem's as we would have more long-term incumbents running regardless of the gerrymander.


I really don't think Dahlkemper
Has much to worry about.  Her opposition is very weaksauce, and if I remember correctly she's sitting on nearly a million in cash on hand.  Not a dominating total, but very good.  

I've been on record since the beginning that I thought Gerlach was going down, but that was with the assumption that Doug Pike was going to be the nominee.  But then he blew up and Minan Trevedi won the nomination.  I am really, really skittish about the potential for Eric Paulsen-Ashwin Madia redux, but for now I still think it's even money that we take out Gerlach.  

Kanjorski, I don't think is going to survive.  Barletta nearly got him last time, and would have had Obama not run so strongly in PA-11 thanks to Joe Biden being on the ticket.  The big question is whether or not Chris Carney will survive.  His district is very conservative, and although he didn't get a strong challenger, that could be a race to watch.  If Kanjorski loses and Carney wins, I don't know what they are going to do with the map, because Barletta will be in the D district and Carney the R one.  Do they draw both incumbents out of their seats, or keep things as is?  

Watch Charlie Dent too, John Callahan supposedly is only 10 points down according to fairly current polling, and he's leading Dent in cash on hand.  If his fundraising stays strong, he's got a great shot.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


[ Parent ]
Not seeing the Madia-Trivedi association
besides race and youth. Trivedi won fair and square, not through some asinine endorsing convention. And he's married, for whatever it's worth. IMO, Pike's only advantages were fundraising and being from the right part of the district to hold Gerlach's margins down.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
They Could Horse Trade
It wouldn't be too hard to combine the two districts in such a way to put Carney's Susquehanna County home and the Democratic core (Scranton/Wilkes-Barre) of PA-11 into PA-10, and to put the ultra-red counties of rural north-central PA into PA-11 in their place.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
Scranton has traditionally been in PA-10
Kanjo was saved by the Republican gerrymander last year.

[ Parent ]
I fixed it
by drawing Carney and Barletta into the same district, but making it a strongly Democratic district that would naturally appear to favor Carney heavily by including some of his stronger areas and not much of the current PA-11.

I also made a bet that Dent would lose and so I redrew Tim Holden's district and made it a Dauphin-Lehigh-Schuylkill based district that's mostly his old territory and which gave Obama 55% of the vote. Even if Dent doesn't lose I have a very hard time seeing him beating a campaigner like Holden, who is also a conservative dem, and especially considering that most of the district is new, and that Holden's base is in the swingier to conservative areas like Schuylkill and Dauphin.

I eliminated one district in the northeast, it made it easier to protect Carney and either gain a seat or set up a seat for John Callahan to hold/win if he loses this year.

I also managed to protect Dahlkemper though, making a, roughly to my estimates, New District: Obama: 53.8%, McCain: 46.2% Old District: McCain 49%, Obama: 49%, by having it tendril out from Erie into central PA, taking in Elkhart and Centre county.

Here's some other info:

PA-08: Paul Kanjorski/John Callahan

Barack Obama: 75,255 + 39,453 + 13,464 = 128,172
John McCain:   58,551 + 28,293 + 12,957 = 99,801
Total Votes Cast: 227,973
New District: Obama: 56%, McCain: 44% w/o Luzerne County. Estimate 55.5% Obama.
Old District: Obama: 57%, McCain: 42%

PA-09: Chris Carney/Lou Barletta

Barack Obama: 11,493 + 9,892 + 8,381 + 5,985 + 13,230 + 3,364 + 14,329 + 67,520 = 134,194
John McCain: 12,518 + 12,702 + 10,633 + 6,983 + 14,477 + 4,574 + 19,018 + 39,488 = 120,393
Total Votes Cast: 254,587
New District: Obama: 52.7%, McCain: 47.3% w/o Luzerne County, I estimate that it's 51-48 Obama.
Old District: 54% McCain, 45% Obama

Other notes: CD's 11, 15, and 16 all likely gave McCain more than 60% of the vote. These are all hardcore Conservative districts virtually impossible for a Democrat to win under any circumstances. Districts 18 and 17 both gave McCain double digit margins around 55% of the vote , at least, if not more.

So the new PA-09 is not so Democratic, problem for Barletta is that all the Republican areas, aside from his base of Hazeltown, are Carney's turf. Barletta would have to win over the new territory where Carney has mostly done quite well in the past two cycles and likely again this time around.  


[ Parent ]
There's nothing on state Senate seats

which probably means not a great deal of good news there.  That's the level on which Democrats are weakest in the state.

It does looks like as if there will be a slew of under-5% wins and losses in U.S. House races in PA this year.  The good news is that most of the Republican nominees don't look high quality and don't have anything terribly specific to run on.


[ Parent ]

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