Google Ads


Site Stats

Kentucky Primary Results Thread

by: James L.

Tue May 18, 2010 at 5:29 PM EDT


8:06pm: Now that polls have closed in Pennsylvania, let's move this block party to a new thread.
8:03pm: 1449 precincts now in, and Conway leads by 49-39. We still have 91 precincts outstanding in Fayette and 96 in Jeffco. After that, we're looking at a lot of itty bitty counties.
7:59pm: In KY-06, Andy Barr has won the GOP nod to face off against Dem Rep. Ben Chandler.
7:58pm: The AP has called KY-03 for Todd Lally, in a major voter backlash against Pizza Hut.
7:55pm: 1341 precincts are in, and Conway's lead has expanded to 50-38. Only 96 precincts in Jeffco remain.
7:52pm: Aaron hears that the Mongiardo camp is worried about low turnout in rural counties.
7:50pm: Ladies and gentleman... the Associated Press has now called your 2010 Kentucky Republican Senatorial nominee... Rand Paul!
7:48pm: 1160 precincts are in, and Conway is up by 49-39. 93 precincts in Fayette remain, and Jeffco remains untouched.
7:41pm: 1004 precincts are in, and Conway leads by 49-38. There are still 127 precincts outstanding in Fayette and 186 in Jeffco. Will that be enough to help Conway hold on? Our crude back of the envelope says maybe not, but I'm also hearing signs of optimism from a source close to the Conway campaign. We'll see!
7:36pm: 838 precincts are in statewide (out of 3575), and Conway leads 51-37. Keep in mind, though, that Jeffco is now well over half in (Conway is crushing by 60-27 there).
7:34pm: And over in KY-03, Air Force vet Todd Lally is beating the somewhat better-funded Pizza Hut franchise baron Jeff Reetz by 53-16. Someone I haven't heard of before today, Larry Hausman, is sitting in second with 25%. Go figure!
7:30pm: Fayette is now half in (giving Conway 52-38 there so far), keeping the score at 47-40 statewide with 572 precincts reporting.
7:23pm: Mongiardo has narrowed the gap in liberal Fayette County -- he's now only down by 51-38 there. Overall, with 509 precincts reporting statewide, it's still 47-40 Conway.
7:21pm: 465 precincts are now in, including an additional 142 from Jeffco, pushing Conway to a 47-40 lead.
7:14pm: 255 precincts in, and Mongiardo leads Grayson by 46-42. Still only 12 of 524 precincts in from Jeffco, though.
7:13pm: Ouch -- so far, Trey Grayson is losing his home county of Boone by 30 points to Rand Paul.
7:08pm: 192 precincts now in statewide (including a handful from Jefferson County, where Louisville is located), and Mongiardo has regained a 45-43 lead.
7:06pm: In KY-06, attorney Andy Barr is leading a very divided GOP field with 69% of the vote. Just under 10% of precincts are reporting there.
7:02pm: With 141 precincts in, Conway has now pulled ahead by 44-43. Note that no precincts in Conway's home base of Louisville have reported yet. Paul's leading Grayson by 55-39.
6:53pm: We're up to 44 of 3575 (still only around 1%). Mongiardo leads Conway 48-39 overall (with a surprising 7% for Deb Darlene Price); Conway is up 52-35 in Fayette County, where he'll need to do well if he's going to have a chance (it's the location of the college town of Lexington and the state's 2nd most populous county). Over in KY-06, Andy Barr seems to have the edge in the GOP primary, at 66% with 3% reporting. (C)
6:37pm: Alright, time seems to be progressing in the normal manner again. With 10 precincts apparently reporting, Mongiardo leads Conway 51-37. Paul leads Grayson 50-43.
6:31pm: I believe we can call this the Curious Election of Benjamin Button.
6:24pm: It looks like the AP (and, subsequently, the Politico) are having some early jitters -- for some reason, the number of precincts reported keeps going down on their pages, but the total number of votes is increasing. Whatever the case, Mongiardo now leads Conway 50-38, and Paul leads Grayson by 48-45. Keep in mind that these early counties are generally expected to be more favorable territory for Mongiardo.
6:16pm: With just over 1% of precincts reporting, Mongiardo leads Conway by 56-34. Paul leads Grayson by 49-43.

Polls will close in the Eastern time zone portions of Kentucky at 6pm, and in the CT areas an hour after that. We'll be using this thread to follow the returns in the KY-Sen, KY-03, and KY-06 primaries. We'll check in with Pennsylvania (8pm ET), Arkansas (8:30pm ET), and Oregon (10pm 11pm ET) later in the evening.

RESULTS: Associated Press | KY SoS | Politico

RESOURCES: SSP Election Preview | PA-12 maps
James L. :: Kentucky Primary Results Thread
Tags: , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

Kentucky Primary Results Thread | 158 comments
NPR says Oregon closes (or stops taking ballots) at 11:00 ET
http://www.npr.org/blogs/polit...


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


i predict CONWAY
will pull out the win tonight in the closest race of the evening
Very early
59-31 to the wrong guy.
then again
Grayson is leading on the R side so these are probably funky precincts. :)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
50-40 now
Paul up 49-43.
[ Parent ]
so far all from rural eastern KY
Mongiardo should be mopping the floor in that area (he represented much of it in the state Senate)

Look for Conway to do very well in Louisville and the surrounding areas, suburban Cincinnati,  Lexington, Frankfurt, Fayette County, and probably more than hold his own in Paducah, Bowling Green and other larger cities and towns. Mongiardo will overwhelm Conway in eastern Kentucky's rural coal counties (where there are a lot of Democratic primary votes), and probably do pretty well in much of the bluegrass area of central KY, and the rural parts of southern and southwestern KY.

Conway needs a big Democratic turnout in Louisville & the burbs-- if he has that, he should be able to pull it out (helped, to some extent, by a Mayoral race there)

[ Parent ]
Conway should do well in the Cincy burbs?
Mongiardo's lead in Kenton Co. bothers me, but that should turn around as more precincts come in, I hope.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Looks like those are absentees, though.
Considering the AP lists zero precincts in from that county.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Was Mongiardo
expected to dominate among absentees? and does KY need absentees to arrive by election day or just be postmarked?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I have no clue on either question.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Conway
gained late momentum, so I don't think it will be reflected as heavily in absentees.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan
[ Parent ]
Good point.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Conway
 Is leading in Lexington, Louisville and their suburbs but the margins from them are not as high as Mongirado's margins from the coal counties. It looks like results right now are coming in from more rural areas so it should tilt toward Conway. It is still too early to project anything though.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
I think there was something fishy going on
the AP had 52 precincts reported and then dialed it back to 53, and now Mongiardo's lead has narrowed, he leads 50-39.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
gah
I meant dialed it back to 36.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
May have just been a typo
The very earliest reporters are largely the rural eastern counties, Mongiardo's base.
[ Parent ]
hmm
now we are down to 19. wtf?
[ Parent ]
They also show votes in counties with zero precincts reporting
I doubt Kentucky does partial returns at the precinct level, so probably just an error or inconstancy on AP's part.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
Might indicate absentees


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Hopefully this will settle down soon.

[ Parent ]
I hope so too
just went down to 8 precincts reporting. Owen County near Louisville went from fully reporting to just one precinct reporting.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
The Curious Election of Benjamin Button

[ Parent ]
Time's relative
For Rand Paul's alien disciples moving away from the Earth at the speed of light, the election's progressing just as it should.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
Check McCreary County (southern KY) on politico's map
Price with 66%? WTF??

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Her home county


"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
oh I see.
makes a bit more sense now.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
That's where she lives
friends-and-neighbors effect.
[ Parent ]
for some reason I thought she was from Louisville
n/t

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Well
I don't believe we have seen any Jeff County numbers yet which is Conway's base. I think it will get closer.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
long way to go
these are very early returns
[ Parent ]
Early results are vaguely encouraging
I think Conway needs to be down by less than double digits before Louisville and the other cities start coming in to have a chance.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
i predicted conway
to win in possibly the closest of the 'BIG' races tonight
[ Parent ]
Down-ballot races for those who care
KY-06 (R): Barr with large lead, 61% to 9% over nearest challenger.

KY-05 (D): Holbert narrowly needs Steppe, 41-38.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

wow...I am the king of awkward typos
I meant Holbert leads Stepp.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Slight tightening
Mongiardo up 48-39. Paul leads 50-43.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Big Jump - Rand leads
59 to 36
[ Parent ]
Paul isn't winning as ovewhelmingly as I thought.
I know its early, but if Paul was really going to mop the floor with Grayson he would be posting a huge double digit margin now, comparable to how Mongiardo is beating Conway pretty badly right now in the Dem primary (yes it will likely narrow because early returns are from rural areas).

I would assume that Grayson going after some of Paul's stranger ideas have seriously eroded Paul's standing. Looks like Paul will still win but it will be much narrower than what we expected, which could be good news for whoever the Dems nominate tonight.

Conway's doing well in Fayette County (Lexington) so far


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


Barely leading in Franklin County
which I think is Frankfurt. Should he be winning there?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
That area (KY-6) is the swing region here from what I know


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Obama did badly in Franklin in the primary, so the city's probably more like the rest of central Kentucky then like Louisville or Lexington
Good sign for Conway then.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
6th Congressional District - Who is
Garland Andy Barr??  
Attorney with political connections
worked in the Fletcher administration, I think.
[ Parent ]
apparently sherriff's deputies had to be called
to various precincts because the tea-bagging crazies supporting rand paul were electioneering to close to the polls, in violation of state election laws
VERY low turnout in south and eastern Kentucky
From Pollster.com's live blog (worth reading) http://www.pollster.com/blogs/...

Bad news for Dr. Dan.  Hoping Louisville's mayor race brings some more folks out there.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


Bad news (I think) for Conway
the Cincy suburbs are starting to come in and Mongiardo is leading.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Two bits of good news
One, rural Robertson County in NE Kentucky appears to be fully in, and Conway won by double digits.

Two, powered by results coming in from Fayette County/Lexington, Conway has taken a narrow lead!

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

I heard somewhere
 There was a 30% turnout projection for Kentucky.

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

Apparently
there are voting problems in Louisville.

Via Pollster

28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26

Conway just took the lead by about 200 votes
hopefully he can maintain it.
Wow
Reading all of the comments, am I the only Democrat pulling for Mongiardo?
Yes
You can't tell me you are surprised at that.
[ Parent ]
Somewhat
I know months ago there was a thread and most of the comments were for Conway, but I thought there were a couple of other Mongiardo people around here :(

Ah well.

[ Parent ]
It doesn't make you a bad person!
:)
[ Parent ]
Wait
Why are you for Mongiardo? I'm really curious.....Dude's a jerk, imho (based on his comments bashing the Dem governor) AND polling behind Conway in GE matchups.

And Conway's only a bit more liberal than Mongiardo, but both would very much be considered moderates in the Senate.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Yeah
See, I think Conway's the jerk after his little rant at that festival awhile back.

Besides, like you said, Conway's the more liberal of the two. 9 times out of 10 I'll pick the more centrist candidate.

[ Parent ]
Hmmm...
That makes sense: if you like centrists, Mongiardo's your guy. He's like Ben Nelson on conservaDem steroids.

That said, their rants were hardly comparable. Conway called himself "one tough sonofabitch" at Fancy Farm, then apologized. Mongiardo said multiple horrible things about the sitting Democratic Governor who got him elected LG in the first place, while whining about his lack of support from a guy who'd endorsed him.

It's totally fine if you like Mongiardo better because he's more conservative, but to me, those occurrences were not at all equivalent.

Source: http://bluegrasspolitics.blogi...

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Nothing personal
Conway is the odd combination of "more progressive" and "more likely to win the general (based on polling)", so the only reason to root for Mongiardo is if you just really like the guy.

Are you from Kentucky, RuralDem?

27, Democratic, IL-01

[ Parent ]
Nope
Georgia.

And sure, the polling says that. I believe there was a poll awhile back also showing Conway pulling in more support from Conservative Democrats while Mongiardo had more support from the liberal wing (or am I confusing that with another race).

My point is that polling is not always accurate :)

[ Parent ]
I'm agnostic
Not sure who I like better, I just want team blue to win in November.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
With
do respect RuralDem I disagree with your decision very much. I AM NOT supporting Conway because he is more liberal. That is just a plus. Conway is by far the most electable candidate.  People HATE Dr. Dan and I can't blame them. Conway is seen as a tough law enforcing outsider. Don't worry he won't be too liberal he knows who he is representing. If Dr. Dan wins the primary I will support him 110% and I would know we still have a good chance of winning.  I respect your views and I have no problem supporting conservative Democrats but I also support the candidates that I think have the best shot of victory and that is Conway.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Louisville starts coming in
Conway extends lead slightly, 45-43.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Louisville
 Should come quickly. In the 2008 general election, half of Louisville's precincts reported in ten minutes and they reported at about now. So far, 2.3% of the vote in Jeffersoon County (Louisville is in, Conway is leading by 1,000 votes with 57%-26%.) Since Louisville has reported less than the rest of the state but Conway is still ahead, I am leaning towards a Conway win. Also, Conway has posted leads in a few central Kentucky rural counties, suggesting Conway is making inroads in Mongirado's base.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
I think Conway might need to do better than that though...
He is getting murdered in the SE KY counties that make up Mongiardo's base. He keeps slightly falling behind. Now Mongiardo is ahead 46-42.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
That's true
 But they have reported more than the statewide average of 7%. I think it does overall point towards a 1-2% Conway win but it is probably too early to project anything.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Maybe I'm a pessimist but
I think that Conway is going to need to expand his leads in Lexington and Louisville even further...which is not impossible.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Yeah
That's what I've been reading on Politico and other sites. They all said Louisville usually reports quick and should be one of the first ones.
[ Parent ]
Conway's taken the lead
with 141 precincts in.
Looks really good for Conway.
Anyone know what the Western extremes are expected to do?  Owensboro?  Paducah?

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
Should be strong for Mongiardo
Conway should run relatively okay (not far behind Mongiardo)  in some of the larger towns in the west, but Mongiardo will have big margins in the more rural counties.

Right now the good news for Conway is that he is running really well in a lot of the bluegrass rural counties, winning many of them. If he can hold up there, his margins in Louisville and Lexington should be enough to overcome Mongiardo's large margins in a lot of the eastern and western KY rural areas.

[ Parent ]
5% in... Conway leads!
Its at 45% to 43% for Conway...
I might be wrong...
I was thinking Dr. Dan was going to win, but I may be wrong.... we'll just gotta see.
[ Parent ]
Poocakes (pardon my French)
the lead switched, now it's Dr. Dan up 45-43.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Gonna be a long night
Rollercoaster.
[ Parent ]
It's only going to be a couple of points
either way, methinks, so they'll probably be waiting until every vote is counted here.
[ Parent ]
Wow
I did not realize just how badly Conway was getting slaughtered in SE KY. in Leslie County, Mongiardo leads 96-0!

(and just to be nitpicky, it's Darlene Price)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

FWIW
FWIW, its 6% of precincts and only 24 total votes on the dem side.

21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)
[ Parent ]
One thing to point out...
Turnout on the Dem side is much higher than on the GOP side! Very good!
True, but
Kentucky Dems outnumber Republicans by something like 2-to-1, let's not forget.
[ Parent ]
But...
All I have heard from the MSM is how enthusiasm on our side is lacking, compared to the GOP. I expect to see the same in PA and AR.
[ Parent ]
More Dem competitive races in..
... in PA and AR, If the Dems don't have a significant turnout advantage it would be a bad sign.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Very true
But I think we can say that was the same for NC. I mean In KY there's a competitive GOP race too. Anyway, I think that if the Dems come out more, people might re-evaluate the excitement that is growing on our side.
[ Parent ]
Eventually this point will start sinking in
The same with NC last week.

Currently Conway has about as many votes as Paul and Grayson put together.  Sure the sample at this minute is Louisville skewed, but take a look at this at the end of the day.

People do like to vote in the general for whoever they voted in the primary.  The "enthusiasm" of Paul voters doesn't translate into their votes counting more than votes for Conway or Dr Dan.

[ Parent ]
Western part of the state
posting big Mongiardo numbers.  Not good...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
Boom!
5k up!
uh, wow.
Fayette and Jefferson counties just rushed in with a crapload of precincts, now it's Conway 47-40.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Best thing is
Both are only about a third in!
[ Parent ]
Problem is
that's still more than the rest of the state.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
You mean less?
Mongiardo is winning huge where there are no people so far.
[ Parent ]
No, I meant
the state as a whole is 14% in, those two places have reported at about twice the rate of the state as a whole, meaning there are many Mongiardo strongholds outstanding.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
But they also make up a greater
Proportion of the vote.
[ Parent ]
than other individual counties, sure
but Jefferson Co. is 1/6 of the state and Fayette County's even less. The other counties of the state collectively outweigh them.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Sure
And Conway is winning other counties too.
[ Parent ]
True
but if Jefferson and Fayette finish and then Mongiardo starts closing the gap, I wouldn't count on the counties Conway is only winning by 10-15 points to save him.

but we'll see. maybe I am just a pessimist.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
Looks close to me

[ Parent ]
I can agree with that
no matter who wins, it won't be by a large margin.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
It comes down to
Turnout, turnout, turnout, turnout. The turnout from Louisville is pretty high and it looks like it should overall hit a bit more than 75,000. The turnout looks like it will be large in eastern Kentucky though so we should keep watching.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
RuralDem
Even though I deplore Mongiardo's stances on abortion and gay marriage, I support him because I think he holds the views of the majority of Kentuckians.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2

Lousville
For some reason isn't being reported on the AP site, but it's about 1/3rd counted, with Conway up 58-27:

http://results.enr.clarityelec...

Never mind, they finally got around to it.

[ Parent ]
And here comes Louisville
With 29.8% of the votes in, Conway leads in Kentucky with 13% in with 31,292 to Mongirado's 26,507. In Jefferson County, Conway leads 14,184 to Mongirado's 6,687.

Also, an interesting area to watch is the counties just south of Louisville and the counties not too far from Lexington. Conway is winning many of those counties, although by small margins.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

Taylor County
 A rural county almost directly south of Louisville is 100% in and Conway won 51%-35%. It is interesting to see how Conway is doing well in some rural areas.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
correct
that potico map goes straight to the county totals and it appears conway is holding his own in the small 'rurals' while absolutely crushing in the big 'urbans'
[ Parent ]
The Good news here
 Is that so far, there are more Democratic primary votes in Kentucky than Republican votes. It could change with more Republican areas reporting later though.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

It would be fire alarm bad
if those numbers are even close in the end.  Kentucky has a huge D registration advantage.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Cool Map
I'm not sure which results link y'all are looking at (I've got all three open), but if you start clicking around on the Politico map, it'll show you a county by county report, including partial, full, and yet to report counties.

http://www.politico.com/2010/m...

that map is AWESOME
.........
[ Parent ]
Conway's lead was shrinking a bit
but Fayette county is now half in and it's back to 47-40.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
It's going to be a long night
I'm almost sure my last Final, which happens to be Biology, will suffer from all this election fever.  But hey, it would be worth it.

If Conway looses, what do you guys think would be the cause?  I think he was generally well funded and ran a good campaign.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

Conservative electorate I guess

[ Parent ]
Mongiardo ran in 2004
and nearly defeated Bunning

As a result, he built up a lot of goodwill among KY Dems, and some feel that he deserves another shot at the seat (especially after the mud-slinging campaign that Bunning threw at him).

If he wins the primary, it is probably a combination of that early name ID and support coupled with his stronger appeal to socially conservative rural KY Dems that would put him over the top.

Fundamentally, this primary breaks down as a largely geographic split -- Mongiardo with a strong base in the rural east and west of the state, Conway strong in Louisville, Lexington and the more urbanized areas. The race will come down to turnout and to who is able to take the lead in the some of the central Kentucky bluegrass counties where both candidates have potential strength. Right now I think the numbers slightly favour Conway, but it will be close.  

[ Parent ]
You think that's bad
I have IB Economics HL test tomorrow and Thursday; two years of review to do.

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets
[ Parent ]
2nd county to finish reporting
is Taylor Co. in Central KY. It's Conway 51-36 and Paul 49-46.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
both Jefferson and Fayette Co. just dumped in results
Jefferson's about 2/3 reporting, Fayette is about 55%, Conway leads 51-37.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
over 50%
conway above 50
50.6-37%

21, Progressive Democrat, MN-08 (home), MN-05 (college)
and boom goes the dynamite


Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
KY-03: Pizza baron Jeff Reetz is an extra-large fail with anchovies
He's in third despite outspending the rest of the field.
third county in
Nicholas Co. in Eastern KY, Monigardo squeezes by an 8-vote margin (987 vs 979), but Paul wins there by a landslide.

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.
Louisville Goes KABOOM!!!!!!
With 64.5% of votes in, Conway leads in JeffCo 34 points, ahead of his earlier 30 point lead and he also has about a 17,000 vote lead out of JeffCo. It would be nice to expand the Fayette County lead. Currently, Conway is leading statewide by 15,000 votes.

Bad news for Conway fans: Boone County, a Cinncinati suburb is 100% in and Mongirado won by 3 points but turnout was low.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

Mongiardo starts crawling back up
trails 50-38.

Nicholas County in NE KY finishes reporting. Mongiardo wins, 43.9-43.5. Paul crumples up Grayson and tosses him into the trash, 70-24.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

Somewhat useless anecdote
Mongiardo won Jefferson by 60/40 over Bunning.

Conway is leading in Jefferson 60/27.

Jeff
is Conway's base. Everyone knows and likes him.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Franklin
88.6% in and Conway up 51-40.
despite all polls pointing to it
the magnitude of rand paul's victory over mitch mcconnell's 'boy' is still shocking in my view
Anyone in a betting mood?
I'll bet that Trey Grayson looses Grayson county.

Any takers?

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

i bet he loses
ALL counties.........or close to it.........
[ Parent ]
Bell County
Grayson already won Bell County, though not by an impressive margin .3%, or also known at 10 votes!

That'll show Paul a thing or two!

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Bellwethers
I totally don't know much about Kentucky, but are there any bellwether counties I should be looking closely at for the Dem primary?

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
I tried looking at McConnell/Lunsford
But outside of the cities there aren't any real patterns.
[ Parent ]
Here an interesting take
Out of the counties that have 100% reporting, Conway's wins are much larger margins. And the ones Dr. Dan are winning, are much tighter. If that is the case I can def see a Conway win!
Unfortunately the opposite is true
Bell is 72% for Dr Dan.  Lee and Morgan about 55%.

Conway is at his high watermark, it's all whitling it down now.

[ Parent ]
ap calls it for paul
game over
MSNBC
calls it for Paul.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Conway slowly falling back down to earth
He's leading 49-39. Now we play the waiting game to see if Mongiardo racks up enough rural votes to chip away at this big lead.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
The waiting game sucks.
I know, let's play Hungry Hungry Hippos!
[ Parent ]
We play jenga on our breaks.
conspiracy started that last week...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Not me
Can't take credit. I think it first cropped up during the NY-20 special.
[ Parent ]
GOP SEN Called
According to MSNBC, AP has called it for Paul.
AP, CNN both declare Paul in winner
no surprise there..
I
am surprised King is doing so bad. He has been money bombing all of the media markets. It's really pathetic really. Fischer winning and Souder resigning in one day. I got a great feeling!  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
As I was looking at the AP results
 Alot of rural counties have not reported yet. This is not the best news for Conway but Mongirado has not made much headway since Louisville first announced 64.5% of its precincts.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

Mongiardo n/t


"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Paul wins; one step closer to gold-standard utopia,
everybody!
GOLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan
[ Parent ]
JeffCo goes KABOOM again
With 82% in, Conway leads 25,000 votes. What is really interesting is that Conway's statewide lead is 25,000 votes, meaning he is tied in the part of the state outside of Louisville.

However, there are still some unreported rural counties that should look favorable for Mongirado. Also, a few of those rural counties where Conway posted small margins in Central Kentucky are all in.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

Ok, really?
Did anyone think that Rand Paul would even come close to winning this thing when he first declared? I know I didn't.

With Paul soo out of touch with the state on many issues, I think KY looks as good as it's going to get.

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

I certainly didn't.
I imagined he'd get some votes, but Paultards can only take a man so far (as Ron's career has shown).
[ Parent ]
I will say right here in Typeing in the cyber space
If Conway wins this thing, He will be the first senate candidate I will donate $25 to.

I've only given money to the congressional candidate who is running in my district, Bill Hendrick

|
|
|
|
|
V

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

Could Rand Paul be the next Tom Coburn?
It's crossed my mind a bit how in 2004 folks thought Brad Carson, a moderate Dem, could easily beat Coburn, a far out rightwinger and Coburn clobbered him in Nov, even though polls were close. Could it have been Bush coattails? Weren't there other races were the Dem won narrowly while Bush handily beat Kerry (not Colorado as it was a narrow for both Salazar and Bush)..

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  
Carson Self-Destructed
He ran an attack ad against Coburn accusing him of sterilizing a woman at his practice against her will. This was explosive, and did damage until it came out it was untrue.

Both the mother of the supposed victim, and the lawyer involved in the case then appeared in a Coburn response ad, with the lawyer explaining that he was a Democrat and Carson donor, but that what Carson said in the ad was a lie, and that he should be ashamed of himself. Probably one of the most devestating negative ads I have ever seen, not least because it was completely true.

Probably a reminder for the future. If you are going to make explosive accusations you damn well better be correct about the facts.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

[ Parent ]
Interesting.....
I did not know that and I was across the border in Texas during that campaign. Hopefully, Conway/Dr. Dan don't do somehting like that against Randy.

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  
[ Parent ]
It was ugly
Basically a woman who was mentally disabled was brought in by her mother who authorized Coburn to sterlize her. The woman later sued her mother, Coburn, and a few other parties. The case was dismissed, which made it look very bad when Carson ran an ad claiming that Coburn had "been accursed of sterlizing a young woman against her will" without mentioning he had been cleared.

I remember the last two weeks. Carson's negatives shot way up over 50% at the end of the campaign, which is why the alien abductee/green party candidate won 6%.

26 Right-leaning, Euro-Conservative, Anti-Tea Party Independent

[ Parent ]
I have a soft spot for Bullitt County
Car chases galore!
Softer spot than Harlan County, brrrr, tough movie
Muhlenberg County (Paradise, John Prine song) and Harlan County thus far have Dr Dan getting more votes than all the Dems and Reps put together.
[ Parent ]
Congrats hoosierdem
AP calls Louisville mayor for Fisher

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
Nobody
likes hard Tandy.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
Thanks!
This night seems to be going my way. Fischer, Souder and probably Conway. Now if I can just get Critz, Sestak and Lincoln with a runoff it will be the perfect night. Fired up and ready to go!!!!!!!!      

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Comparing turnout in Eastern Kentucky
 Rowan County had about 3,900 votes in the Democratic primary and 3,700 in the primary today. Rowan County is fully in. Morgan County in eastern Kentucky where Mongirado won by 23 points is all in with 3,500 voters. In 2008, there were 3,000. It looks like turnout in eastern Kentucky will be pretty high and Mongirado is topping 70% in a few counties there. The good news is that Mongirado has not done much to the 22,000 margin Conway has. It has stayed pretty stable since Louisville last reported. It looks like Mongirado can get alot closer looking at the results but he will need to win the remaining votes by 10 points and with only a bit of Louisville left, this is very possible.


for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

Kentucky Primary Results Thread | 158 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Senior Editor: Crisitunity

Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

Dave's Redistricting App

Blogroll

Daily Kos Elections
DemConWatch
Five Thirty Eight
Governing
Hotline On Call
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Prop*50
Public Policy Polling
The Thicket
Powered by: SoapBlox