the Sestak lead explains why Snarlin Arlen is running the

Sestak got an F from the NRA ad in Western Pennsylvania and Spector's vote against the assault weapons ban. I hope Joe Sestak once and for all retires Arlen Specter on Tuesday.  

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by: gomer @ Mon May 17, 2010 at 02:15:14 AM UTC

There are some suggestions from the internals

that W. PA voters think Sestak is more conservative than Specter. That's interesting--and good for Sestak.

I expect that votes in the Philly orbit have a different impression.

As for the special election--who knows. It's a swing district now.  

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by: andgarden @ Mon May 17, 2010 at 02:16:01 AM UTC

I wouldn't assume that at all......

You can't assume a vote for Sestak in PA-12 means voters think Sestak is more conservative.  Voters have a whole mishmash of reasons for voting for someone.

And crosstabs in most polls are notoriously unreliable, especially in a House race poll which can be tough to do accurately even in the topline.

I suspect the metastory is the better takeaway on Sestak in PA-12 as well as everywhere, that Specter is simply unpopular for being untrustworthy as a Democrat and being an incumbent when incumbents are unpopular.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Mon May 17, 2010 at 02:33:08 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

There's another dimension to this

which is that voters in W. PA have always, always, always been cool to Specter.

What I'd really like to see are detailed regional crosstabs of Specter/Sestak from across the state.

I'm with you on not reading too much into crosstabs though. I'm a longstanding proponent of that. It's why I just said "suggestions."  

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by: andgarden @ Mon May 17, 2010 at 02:36:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

the last F&M poll

Link:

Phila/SE: Specter 33-32
Allegheny/SW: Sestak 42-37
NE: Specter 53-39
Central: Specter 39-30
NW: Sestak 58-14

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by: Adam B. @ Mon May 17, 2010 at 13:31:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

tks

Looks like low turnout favors Sestak.  

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by: andgarden @ Mon May 17, 2010 at 15:06:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Explains why Bob Casey is campaigning for Specter . . .

in Western PA over the weekend.

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by: Kendall @ Mon May 17, 2010 at 02:41:24 AM UTC

A 9-point Sestak edge in this district is hardly overwhelming

Toomey beat Specter in this district by roughly 15% in the '04 primary. Though, to be fair, Specter did beat Hoffel in the high single-digits in the '04 general. It's hardly Specter Country, though.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

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by: andyroo312 @ Mon May 17, 2010 at 03:13:12 AM UTC

Low single-digits

	Hoeffel	Specter	Total	Hoeffel%	Specter%
Allegheny	1,137	970	2,257	50.38%	42.98%
Armstrong	5,876	9,176	16,730	35.12%	54.85%
Cambria	24,303	29,643	57,687	42.13%	51.39%
Fayette	19,851	16,311	38,914	51.01%	41.92%
Greene	6,799	7,795	15,703	43.30%	49.64%
Indiana	3,110	4,345	8,346	37.26%	52.06%
Somerset	5,434	8,296	14,897	36.48%	55.69%
Washington	21,579	18,789	43,570	49.53%	43.12%
Westmoreland	30,775	30,617	66,832	46.05%	45.81%
Total	118,864	125,942	264,936	44.87%	47.54%

You're right that this isn't Specter Country though - Clymer did pretty well out here. Casey did very well here, 62.85%.

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by: jeffmd @ Mon May 17, 2010 at 05:20:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

So that gives Hoeffel 3 CD in '04, right? (1, 2, 14)

It looks like he probably didn't even win his own (the 13th).

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by: andgarden @ Mon May 17, 2010 at 05:53:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That PA-12 is this close is pretty freakin encouraging

if it stays close in spite of the enthusiasm gap, we're cookin in the rust belt this year.  

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by: Jolpaj @ Mon May 17, 2010 at 03:50:59 AM UTC

Winning PA 12 would be big

I can hear the media playing this up as Democrats gaining ground if we are able to win an open McCain seat in 2010. I hope Democratic enthusiasm for the Senate primary is enough to bring up the interest gap that PPP projects.  

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by: fitchfan28 @ Mon May 17, 2010 at 04:29:55 AM UTC

Oh damn

That is very interesting, A highly competitive democratic senate primary, somewhat lopsided Democratic Gubernatorial primary, mega lopsided Republican Gubernatorial primary and a non existent republican senate primary, could lead to more dem turnout then republican turnout, which could really help Critz.

I would not be surprised at all if Critz wins this one.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

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by: daman09 @ Mon May 17, 2010 at 07:13:38 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Could argue

Late deciders are moving to Critz though the numbers are small. Then again it is a very tight race. Wouldn't be surprised to see it decided within the hundreds.

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by: conspiracy @ Mon May 17, 2010 at 15:07:41 PM UTC

Yeah, but you could also argue

That late late deciders (that is, the ones who have decided in the past week) might be moving toward Burns, hence why he's sports a one point lead (as opposed to Critz's lead on the polls from last week).

I think it might be a photo finish here.  

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by: markhanna @ Mon May 17, 2010 at 22:11:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not really

Can't mix and match different polls like that. The PPP trend is more to Critz than to Burns. 51-49 either way at most I think. But probably even closer.

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by: conspiracy @ Mon May 17, 2010 at 22:17:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Recount

I think there is a good shot we could see two PA races headed to recounts, PA-12 and the Dem Sen primary. If one doesn't, I'd be surprised.

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by: GOPVOTER @ Tue May 18, 2010 at 00:03:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

A recount in PA might be pretty tedious

Just for starters, it usually takes weeks for Philly to count its absentee ballots in the first place.  

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by: andgarden @ Tue May 18, 2010 at 00:47:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Colleges in the district?

Are there any colleges in the district?  I'm wondering if since most students would be home for the summer, if that could be negatively impacting Critz w/r/t more McCain voters showing up...maybe some Obama voters in the district are home for the summer and didnt care enough to do an absentee.

I know back in college, I would vote in PA instead of NY since PA was a swing state and NY was a given Dem state.  I wonder if that could be the case in this election too.

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by: rdw72777 @ Mon May 17, 2010 at 16:43:39 PM UTC

PA-12 isn't a district with a lot of college students

It's demographically old and poor.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Mon May 17, 2010 at 19:34:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Colleges in PA-12

Mount Aloysius College (where I graduated), St. Francis University, University of Pittsburgh at Johnstown, Pennsylvania Highlands Community College, Cambria-Rowe Business College and UTI.

And yes, most college students did go home over the summer, though a majority of those schools are commuter based schools. In the terms of schools like Penn Highlands or Cambria Rowe, however, there doesn't appear to be much enthusiasm in this race.  

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

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by: Anthony_Distler @ Mon May 17, 2010 at 20:49:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What about Indiana University of Pennsylvania and California University of Pennsylvania

Those would seem to be the big one...unless they're in a part of Indiana Co. and Washington Co. that's not in the 12th.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

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by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Tue May 18, 2010 at 01:04:28 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nope

They're both in Shuster's district. PA-9

23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

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by: Anthony_Distler @ Tue May 18, 2010 at 01:09:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]