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SSP Daily Digest: 5/17 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Mon May 17, 2010 at 8:00 AM EDT


  • AR-Sen: Blanche Lincoln refuses to say whether she'd want Barack Obama to campaign with her - and for once, I can't blame her for being wishy-washy. She still managed to get in a dig at "the far left" in an interview with The Hill, which should really help her consolidate the base if she wins the primary. And graciously, she said that she wouldn't run as an independent if she were to lose the primary - which is good to know, since she only filed as a Dem. Meanwhile, the SEIU just threw down another $330K on TV ads and phonebanking to support Bill Halter.
  • DE-Sen: A good get for the Democrat: The Delaware State Education Association, a big teacher's union, has switched their endorsement from GOPer Mike Castle to Chris Coons. Though the DSEA has supported Castle in the past, they cited unhappiness over his votes against the stimulus (which had a lot of education money) and healthcare reform. Meanwhile, Castle secured his party's nomination with 70% of the vote at the GOP convention, but teabagger Christine O'Donnell pledged to fight on through the primary.
  • IN-Sen: Not that anyone expected otherwise, but Dem Rep. Brad Ellsworth was officially nominated by the state party, over joke candidate Bob Kern.
  • KY-Sen: A shadowy 527 organized by Lexington, Ky. "media specialist" Tim Isaac is running ads linking Rand Paul to absolutely batshit fucking insane radio host Alex Jones. (Paul appeared on the show a few times and kissed Jones's ass.) Probably too little, too late - and in this case, Isaac's refusal to announce the size of the buy is pretty glaring, since it seems like a blatant attempt to play local media. On the flipside, Paul said on Friday that he's pulling his attack ads from the air - which, given how little time there is before election day, again seems like a way to gin up some press coverage. I guess that's politics.
  • PA-Sen: An ugly late hit from Arlen Specter, which he prays doesn't make it back east: He's running web ads attacking Joe Sestak for his "F" rating from the NRA. Sestak doesn't have much time to raise hell about this, but this is obviously not a winning issue for Specter in Philly. Anyhow, Tuesday should be a barn-burner, with Specter and Sestak now tied at 44 apiece (with 11% undecided) in Muhlenberg's final tracking poll. (Kudos to Muhlenberg, btw, for what turned out to be a genius marketing move in providing this tracker.)

  • UT-Sen: Game on? Orrin Hatch is vowing to run for re-election in 2012, when, as the world is engulfed in flames foretold by a Mayan end-times prophecy, he'll be a spry 78. Will Jason Chaffetz seize the day, or let opportunity pass him by a second time? I also have to wonder if nervous incumbents will try to change the law regarding convention nominations before the next cycle rolls around, lest they become Bob Bennett Vol. II.
  • AL-Gov: Ron Sparks, as expected, just scored the endorsement of the Alabama Democratic Conference, the state's old black political organization. This means that he, and not African American primary opponent Artur Davis, has secured the backing of all four of Alabama's major black political groups. Pushing back against this unusual narrative, Davis announced endorsements from two fellow members of Congress: Jesse Jackson, Jr. and John Lewis, neither of whom represent Alabama (though Lewis was born there). Not sure this really helps Davis's "D.C." image.
  • CA-Gov: Steve Poizner, who has been making late headway in the polls, is finally airing some broadcast TV ads in the Bay Area, painting Meg Whitman as an apostate to the conservative movement. If I were a mouth-breather, I'd vote for him. As ever, no word on the size of the buy, but given how rich Poizner is, I'd guess it's substantial.
  • FL-Gov: Lawton Chiles III, son of the late governor of the same name, apparently wants to challenge Alex Sink in the gubernatorial primary this year, according to people close to him. The filing deadline for state races is not until June 18th, though even if he gets in right now, Chiles would have a major financial gap to make up with Sink. Maybe the young he-coon thinks he got some walk in him?
  • NV-Gov: Man, this is just an absolutely brutal profile of GOP Gov. Jim Gibbons, who regularly disappeared Mark Sanford-like during the meltdown of 2008, when his state needed leadership most. Just read it.
  • AL-07: EMILY's List made a small independent expenditure (sub-$30K) for mailers and phonebanking on behalf of Terri Sewell. Someone from EMILY really needs to explain why they endorsed Wall Street attorney Sewell over the well-known progressive (and equally pro-choice) Shelia Smoot.
  • CA-19: God bless KFSN-TV! Without them, we wouldn't have yet another poll of the fascinating CA-19 primaries. Even the pollster notes: "Compared to identical SurveyUSA polls released one and two months ago, the contest is unchanged." I guess the good news is that Dick Pombo looks slated to lose.
  • DE-AL: As expected, wealthy heiress Michele Rollins won the GOP's nomination for Delaware's at-large House seat, though it took her two rounds of balloting at the state convention. However, opponent Glen Urquhart has pledged to stay in through the primary.

  • FL-22: Your liberal media: A local TV reporter, Angela Sachitano, has been covering the FL-22 race for WPTV... and has also been serving as an informal media advisor to whacked-out Republican Allen West. Her employer, of course, is saying there's no harm done, and that they've taken unspecified "appropriate action." Typical liberals!

  • HI-01: Sue Lowden would be proud: Charles Djou is busy spending time with his chickens, so he can count them before they hatch. Said Djou to Sean Miller of The Hill: "This election is pretty much over." Djou was later seen hanging out with a bunch of lazy grasshoppers who were scoffing at hard-working ants preparing for winter. You've also got to wonder why he's spending $88K on TV ads attacking (for the first time) Ed Case if this thing is "over."

  • ID-01: Hoo boy this is good! Republican Vaughn Ward, the supposed establishment favorite in the race, has fired his campaign manager just a week-and-a-half before the primary. (Though CQ's Greg Giroux tweets that Ward is now supposedly saying his CM quit.) Read the Politico's piece for a full account Ward's long string of failures - it's like he's been touched by the ghost of Bill Sali.
  • Still, Ward might yet win. An independent poll last week from Greg Smith & Associates showed Ward leading Raul Labrador in the primary, 34-16, but with 50% undecided. The general election numbers (PDF) are really weird, though - Smith tested Rep. Walt Minnick "jungle-style" against both Labrador and Ward together. Yeah, Idaho doesn't do their elections that way, so I don't get the choice, but in any event, Minnick was at 50% with both Republicans combining for 20%.

  • MA-05: Rep. Niki Tsongas, in a diary on Blue Mass Group, says that her quote in the NYT last week has been "misinterpreted" and that she "will always welcome President Obama to Massachusetts and the Fifth District." Good.
  • PA-06: Doug Pike sure must enjoy being in the apology business. For the zillionth time this campaign, he's had to walk something back. In this case, it's a misleading mailer he sent out claiming he'd been awarded a "100% pro-choice rating" by NARAL. Not so fast, says the group - we haven't endorsed anyone in this race. Egg, face, repeat.
  • PA-12: A Pittsburgh TV station yanked a Democratic ad attacking Tim Burns for supporting a national sales tax instead of income taxes. A conservative victory over rascally Dems? Not quite - the station, WPGH, is owned by Sinclair Broadcasting, who you might remember from 2004, when they forced their member stations to air a "documentary" swiftboating John Kerry just two weeks before election day.
  • Undeterred, the DCCC just chipped in another $40K for ads. Also, we mentioned the SEIU's big ad buy here last week - click this link if you want to see the ad itself.

  • SC-02: A sign of life from Dem Rob Miller's otherwise somnolent campaign? Miller has a poll out from Anzalone-Liszt showing Rep. Joe Wilson up 49-34. That might not seem like much to brag about, but Miller's making hay of the fact that he only has 34% name ID, and says that Wilson's incumbency is hurting him.
  • VT-AL: Retired 71-year-old businessman John Mitchell says he's joining the GOP field to take on Rep. Peter Welch. He joins conservative radio show host Paul Beaudry and businessman Keith Stern. It looks like none of these Republicans have yet raised a dime.
  • British Elections: I don't know about you, but the political spectrum across the pond always felt like Anarchy in the UK to me. Fortunately, SSP's EnglishLefty surfs to the rescue with a detailed explanation of the fault lines between the Labour Party (which just got turfed) and the Liberal Democrats (who've joined a coalition with the Tories). The ensuing comments are enlightening as well.
  • DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 5/17 (Morning Edition)
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    In defense of Charles Djou......
    Ugh, I hated typing that subject line.

    But seriously, it's a situation where at this point probably a LOT of ballots have been mailed back, and all sides probably have been tracking who they're coming from.  So it might very well NOT be THAT premature, even though he would've been smarter to zip his lips until next Saturday.

    And believing he's got the win isn't necessarily inconsistent with a new attack ad against Case.  Djou might be airing it for insurance, to avoid any late surprise in the late ballots.

    If Critz pulls it out on Tuesday, I'll breathe a huge sigh of relief and not worry too much about Saturday.  The Republicans know they're renting HI-01 for only a few months.

    Did Hanabusa ever explicitly attack Case for having primaried favored Democrats in the past?  If not, would that have helped her?  I can see it fitting a narrative of "Case is out for himself."  Too late now, but I haven't followed her line of attack on her intraparty rival.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    Generic Mail-in Ballot Return Rates
    Here's a PDF of a 2004 Reed College study on the subject http://people.reed.edu/~gronke... HI-01 seems to be using the Oregon model, as ballots must be received by some set time on election evening.

    The key graph is on p 18. The numbers are as of % of ballots cast.

    The first time there was "vote by mail," 50% of the ballots were returned by 8 days before election day.

    By '00, 50% of the ballots weren't returned until 2 days before election day.

    I don't have any more recent numbers, but I think it's reasonable to assume that people here still mostly wait until the last couple of days.

    Make your own conclusions on how that would extend to HI-01. Did they respond as quickly as Oregonians during their first mail-in election in '96?


    [ Parent ]
    Good info, thanks. I was wondering just that, but...
    ...I figured the campaigns are closely monitoring ballot return rates, and guessing--*only* guessing--that Djou's comments reflected a high early return rate.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    [ Parent ]
    One slight hope
    In 2000 WA-Sen, Maria Cantwell was some ways behind after the first absentee ballots were counted.

    Late absentee ballots, which were effectively like mail-in ballots, brought her back from that deficit.

    To me, that suggests that late mail-in voters are more D than average.

    As I understand it, late voters on election day in regular vote states are more D than average.

    When ballots are counted in OR, ballots that are returned early are collected and collated. They start counting those ballots first, as soon as the deadline is passed.

    In contrast, ballots that are returned on election day have to be opened first - they're returned in a privacy envelope inside a second envelope. I think HI-01 follows the same procedure.

    So in the returns from HI-01, I think Djou will take an early lead but the lead will narrow. I doubt that will be nearly enough, but you never know!


    [ Parent ]
    wouldn't count out Djou
    no incumbent has ever lost reelection in Hawaii for Senate, House or Governor. (I don't count the Abercrombie 1986 special election since he technically wasn't an incumbent when he lost the primary on the same day).  

    [ Parent ]
    File that one under "meaningless statistics"......
    Dig deeper and you'll find that almost all those "incumbents" were Democrats in a Democratic state.  Hawaii hasn't had a Republican elected to federal office since Pat Saiki almost 2 decades ago, and she served just a couple terms before losing the Governor's race.

    Streaks are made to be broken, and they always are.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


    [ Parent ]
    PA-Sen
    Final Q poll has Sestak up one point.

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x128...


    There is no way Specter can win.
    Tradition is that the undecideds break for the challenger (Sestak) than to the incumbant (Specter).

    [ Parent ]
    And "tradition" is often wrong
    Just ask President Kerry about that.

    28, Unenrolled, MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    There wasn't 15%-18% undecided in 2004
    Unlike in this contest.

    [ Parent ]
    Apparently the White House agrees with your analysis.
    http://politicalwire.com/archi...

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    I was just gonna post that
    But mixed messages. Could well be that the Rendell fix is in. It'll be close though.

    [ Parent ]
    Undecideds may break...
    ...but the Philly machine can offset if need be.  I think the race turns on whether the unions, many of whom have endorsed Specter, will be able to keep their voters in line.  

    Sestak has a pretty appealing profile for the blue collar union vote, so I think that vote will be interesting (not that we'll ever really know).


    [ Parent ]
    Two thoughts, on Delaware and Pennsylvania...
    1) Castle's biggest hurdle was trumping O'Donnell at the state GOP convention. With that out of the way, sailing should be smooth.

    2) Specter running an NRA ad tells me his camp believes they have Philly locked-down enough for them to begin targeting the Pittsburgh area. This is risky, esp. in the Philly suburbs, but it could surely hurt Sestak among SW conservaDems who aren't fond of Specter. On a related note, I've heard turnout is actually projected to be rather low on Tuesday here, and my suspicion is that helps Specter.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    PA is a big gun state
    Way back in 1968 or so, incumbent Democratic Senator Joe Clark was knocked out by the gun lobby.  Pass through PA during the fall and the roadsides are jam packed with the cars of hunters.  At one time, PA had the most hunters of any state in the union (I think Texas does now).

    An NRA ad might be a liability in many states but it could be a plus in PA (although more in a general election).


    [ Parent ]
    Dem Primary Predictions
    PA-SEN - Sestak 52, Specter 48 - Undecideds break 2-1 for Sestak.

    AR-SEN - Lincoln 50, Halter 46 - Undecideds break 2-1 for Halter, but Lincoln narrowly avoids runoff.

    KY-SEN - Conway 48, Mongiardo 46 - Undecideds break 60-40 for Conway, just enough to flip Mongiardo's narrow polling advantage.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    I think the special
    And those three will end up in 50-50 (AR in terms of the runoff) territory. A long night. Just how we like it here!

    [ Parent ]
    I'm with ya--expect for AR-SEN
    I'll trust Markos on this one!

    Lincoln will desperately try to capture enough of that undecided vote to get her above 50 percent and avoid the runoff. I'll call it right now -- she won't get to 50. I suspect she'll be around 44-45 percent.


    [ Parent ]
    That's really optimistic.
    This race is not closing nearly quickly enough to support that kind of confidence.  Over the course of 4 Daily Kos polls, the numbers have been:

    L44-H31
    L45-H33-M7
    L43-H35-M6
    L46-H37-M6

    Halter has gained 6, and Lincoln has gained 2.  That movement is well within the MOE.  Kos's characterization of the last poll as "Runoff Bound" was very optimistic and bordering on misleading.  Based on that poll, even assuming Morrison keeps all of his support and Halter wins 2/3rds of undecideds, Lincoln is right at 50%.  

    My guess is that Morrison will lose about half of his support, mostly to the more conservative Lincoln, and undecideds will break to Halter, but it won't be enough to force a runoff.  I'd have to see a new poll showing maybe 45-39-6 or better to convince me otherwise.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    [ Parent ]
    It looks like
    50-45-5 to me.

    [ Parent ]
    I'm thinking 50-42-8


    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    Apparently sensing a Democratic surge in real polling,
    Rasmussen cranks up the dial on the turnout model, showing huge swings towards Marco Rubio and Rick perry for ... no fucking logical reason whatsoever!

    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    I can buy Rubio
    Crist was all over the news and no isn't so much. But the Texas numbers are bizarre. Could well be one of his screwy samples. See Sununu taking the lead very late on in 2008 and plenty other examples earlier that cycle.

    [ Parent ]
    That is a 13 point swing for Rubio.
    I would buy 5.  I might buy 8, but probably wouldn't.  There has been no development in the race to justify 13.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    PA
    I think Sestak will pull out a narrow win here.More telling
    Is reports the white House Is prepared for a Spector loss.Both Obama and Biden are not doing any last minute campaigning for Spector.

    Take any RAS polls till the fall with a grain fo salt.Untill general election time(and even them RAS can be wrong rememebr In fall 2008 they had Mccain gaining on Obama In PA)

    Sestak can beat Toomey.Polls already are showing he Is stronger than Spector against Toomey.


    I was rooting
    for Specter, but I'm leaning towards Sestak now. Specter will be handicapped in the general election by the anti incumbent move and explaining why he switched parties. Sestak not so much, though I do expect Toomey to smear his military record like Specter did.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    Same
    I've evolved here. Firstly, I thought an ideological primary was unnecessary and it would only serve to weaken Specter who would win anyway. Indeed, this looked like being the case for a long time. And coupled with Sestak opening up PA-07 it wasn't a good deal for Democrats at all.

    But now I think it pretty clear that the worst possible outcome is Specter pulling out it out by a razor thin margin when he clearly polls the worst against Toomey. I'm now rooting for Sestak. Arlen is gonna become a pain in the ass I fear but we will cross that bridge when we come to it.


    [ Parent ]
    Sestak has Washington baggage too!
    Not so sure CONGRESSMAN Sestak can avoid being tagged a Washington insider by Toomey. After all Sestak has been in Washington for the last 4 years. He's voted for the stimulus, healthcare and a host of other issues that he can be attacked on in the general election. Hard to be an outsider when you are on the inside in Washington voting.

    Also I think if Sestak wins you will see Toomey and the NRA go all out against Sestak on guns in Western PA. That will be an issue that could really hurt Sestak in the general election.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    40 years versus 4
    Come on. The difference being time spent in the military. Sestak will be fine on guns with the people that matter.

    [ Parent ]
    Agreed.
    And Sestak is not the incumbent.  Whether that difference becomes substantial or semantic is a question worth looking into.

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    [ Parent ]
    I don't
    think Sestak should rely on Western PA for a victory. Toomey's already leading Sestak 45% to 35% in Murtha's old district. What Sestak should do is appeal to the moderate voters that populate the Philadelphia suburbs that would be turned off by Toomey's right wing positions.

    And by your logic, Bill Halter should be dead heat with John Boozman down in Arkansas because Boozman is a congressman and voted for the bailout, but he's leading Halter easily right now.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12


    [ Parent ]
    Yes
    Yes! If I was Halter and maded it to the general election that would be my line of attack. I would paint Boozman has a Washington insider who voted for the bailouts of Wall Street fat cats.

    As for a dead heat I dont't know. But I do think that would be the best campaign tact for Halter to take if he is the Dem nominee. If 2010 is going to be an anti-incumbent year the best strategy would be to try to paint your opponent as a Washington insider.

    As for Sestak, no way a Dem can win in PA if he gets wiped out in Western PA. Just not enough votes in Philly to carry them.

    Besides the anti tax thing could help Toomey run better in the Philly suburbs if he plays that angle.

    Since Toomey didnt have to tact right in a GOP primary he can down play the divisive social issues in the Philly subs and concentrate on the economic and tax issues there which are an easier sell for the GOP.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    PA election results
    Please refer back to Pennsylvania election results over the past decade or so.  PA is now a solidly D state.  Its why Specter switched parties in the first place.

    The anit-incumbent mood will hit PA more at state elections than Federal.  Most in PA actually like their Senators and congressmen/women.  However, I think it pretty obvious that Gov is probably going Republican, but I don't see Toomey winning.

    Also, once its down to a 2 man race, Obama will come in and campaign like heck.  Even if its Sestak, the Philly machine will kick in and carry him to victory even though everyone has endorsed Specter in the primary.

    The only way Toomey wins is if Specter is the nominee.  Then its 2 Republicans running against each other, one a opportunistic moderate and the other an anit-incumbent right winger with some moderate appeal.


    [ Parent ]
    PA is not solidly D
    By any means. It's about as democratic as Florida is republican. Of all the states in the union it is likely the one that will show the greatest swing to the GOP in terms of results in 2010. The Governorship, a senate seat and at least 6 house seats (3,7,8,10,11,12) are all in real danger of falling to the GOP. Obama's numbers have been underwater in virtually all polling I've seen.

    The surge in black voters in Philadelphia boosted Obama in 2012, that surge of voters will not for the most part, make up a big share of the elctorate in 2010. PA has a blue tint for sure, but the idea that everybody seems to have that it's solid blue is well off the mark.


    [ Parent ]
    Based on PVI,
    the Republican analogue for Pennsylvania (D+2) is actually Virginia (R+2).  Florida is R+0, so it's less Republican than Pennsylvania is Democratic.  Dem states comparable to Pennsylvania are New Mexico (D+2) and Nevada (D+2).

    Pennsylvania is a swing state with a Dem tilt.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    [ Parent ]
    More Dem than FL is Rep
    By about two points. But yeah solid is too generous.

    [ Parent ]
    Nope, its blue
    It hasn't voted for a Repub president since 1988.
    Its gone from 2 Repub Senators to 2 Dems since 2006.
    Its had a Dem governor for 8 consecutive years.
    Congressional delegation is currently 12-7.  Dems gained just 1 seat in the 2008 elections in, so the Obama surge is inaccurate.

    Dem vote totals in presidential races are as follow:
    2000: 2,485,967 (50.6%)
    2004: 2.938,095 (50.9%)
    2008: 3,276,363 (54.47%)

    PA has become blue for obvious reasons; the burbs are turning blue.  This election will not change that very much, as the teabaggers are NOT penetrating the philadelphia suburbs.

    The other thing to note.  Even as PA population ahs declined, vote totals have increased in many areas.  Turnout operations have really come to life in PA>  And now more than ever GOTV efforts heavily favor the Dems.

    And even if Dems lose a seat this cycle, the population decline is not really in Philly or the burbs.  The lost seat will be a rural seat in central or western PA for sure.


    [ Parent ]
    Arguing over semantics here
    The best way to look at it is the fact PA was about five points more Dem than the country as a whole in both 2000 and 2004. Much better to look at that than the lopsided 2008 result.

    [ Parent ]
    I just don't think people realize how Dem PA is
    PA Gov is going Republican because the Philly area really has no dog in the race.  Future races for Philly mayor will be pre-cursors to governor's races.

    I'm not saying PA is Massachusetts, but the numbers, voting patterns, demo trends, etc., dont lie.  And most importantly, the GOTV efforts can really sway things hugely and there isn't really an offsetting for for that.


    [ Parent ]
    If PA were really turning blue
    Rs wouldn't have a lead in a race where the candidates were from only one part of the state.

    In contrast, imagine the race in NY if both the D  and whomever is the R candidate came from the Buffalo area - no way the R would be leading that one, which is a sign of a blue state.


    [ Parent ]
    Disagree 100%
    A dem from Buffalo vs an R from Buffalo, the R would be favored.

    Its why Gillibrand was losing to Pataki and sometimes Giuliani in polls.  Pataki upstater, Giullibrand upstater, Pataki was ahead.

    This whole site has a mantra of candidates matter, we cant avoid that even when trying to discuss blue state shading.  

    The governor in most big states is powerless and a figurehead for overall mood.  Most big state governors accomplish next to nothing.  In PA its next to impossible to get anything done, so everyone realizes the governor doesn't matter.  The mood is looking for change in the governor, but not anything at the federal level.


    [ Parent ]
    Pataki is not from upstate
    he is from Westchester.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Mayor of Peekskill...
    to New Yorkers that is upstate.  I am from NY in a town that is an hour north of Albany.  When I went to school, most NYC people I told I was from upstate NY thought I was from WestChester or Rockland counties.  That's upstate to them.

    [ Parent ]
    from my experience, I don't think so
    my dad, a Long Islander, seems to think that upstate doesn't start any further south than the Catskills. And there's even an FB group about Westchester not being upstate.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    A lot of NYC folk are sheltered
    some people thoguht I was from canada lol.

    [ Parent ]
    Eh, Peekskill is SLIGHTLY upstate
    I guess, but it's well within the New York Metropolitan Area, though a fairly long commute. As a Manhattanite (though one who went to college at SUNY at Purchase in southern Westchester), I would not call Peekskill "upstate," but I would call Newburgh "upstate." I think "upstate" starts north or/and west of Westchester and Rockland, but I'll give you that it's an amorphous concept.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    Naah!
    "Upstate" is north of I-84.

    [ Parent ]
    I'm not a driver
    I'm a Manhattanite, remember? I don't think you'll find many Manhattanites who would define "Upstate" by the number of a highway most of us don't know. (I know where it is, but I went to college in Westchester.)

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    Yup.
    Using highways is better in discussion with a Californian, especially a So-Californian.

    My blog
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    28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


    [ Parent ]
    OK, then.
    Let's say north of the Dutchess-Putnam line east of the Hudson. West of the Hudson, Rockland definitely isn't upstate; it's borderline about where to put Orange.

    [ Parent ]
    Now that's a stretch
    What you're doing, IMO, is comparing apples to elephants.

    I'm guessing it's like saying Dick Thornburgh would have done better in '92 than the Mayor of Erie at the time.

    Pataki has name recognition and has served statewide. Gillibrand is just building that name recognition.


    [ Parent ]
    Fine then, what example would you use
    If there are no real examples, then its jsut conjecture to you that 2 buffalo area people would have the Dem be favored.  

    I'd take Tom Golisano over the current Mayor of Buffalo also.


    [ Parent ]
    Brian Higgins (NY-27) / Chris Lee (NY-26)
    Generic D v. Generic R as far as metro NYC is concerned.

    If you can prove otherwise, then NY perhaps is not so blue. Your own personal preferences are not relevant in that judgment.


    [ Parent ]
    I meant as a matchup, Golisano would beat the Mayor of Buffalo statewide
    The fact tyou listed 2 congressman means nothing.  What proof do you have the Dem would be favored over the Republican.

    [ Parent ]
    My proof: 2:1 registration advantage in NY
    http://polhudson.lohudblogs.co...

      Statewide, 2.7 million voters are registered as Republicans, down by about 90,000 in 2008. Democrats have gained about 1,500 voters over the same time period to bring their total to 5.2 million. The number of independent and third-party voters is down by 182,828 over the past 18 months.

    In PA, per http://www.portal.state.pa.us/...

    There's a downloadable Xls file that suggests:

    A 4:3 registration advantage in PA
    - which is much less conclusive.


    [ Parent ]
    4:3 is still like a million voters
    I'm sick of percentages.  it always seems like it would be easy to turn a 52-48 advantage, but when that advantage is huge raw numbers, its not the case.  That's what makes PA a solidly blue state.

    NY had that similar voter registration edge when pataki was governor and Al D'Amato was Senator.


    [ Parent ]
    4:3 = 57:43 with a lot of Alabama in the middle
    (Remember Carville's axiom)

    And Western PA is looking very socially conservative - a lot of Ds who like in the South are inclined to vote R in federal elections. If you believe that's solid blue, we'll, I guess I should not try to change your mind.

    As for NY, we're talking about today, not some time in the '90s.


    [ Parent ]
    Then you're avoiding the point
    NY was solid blue in the late 1990's.  Yet they had a Repub governor and repub senator.

    PA is solid blue now, with 0 Repub senators and a Dem governor.  All you are doing is using statistics to prove a point that can't over-ride the current makeup of PA and the obvious trends in voting, party registration, etc.

    PA votes blue for Fed elections...they just do.


    [ Parent ]
    Don't bother
    nothing will change his mind that PA is solid blue, despite, everyone who has commented, literally, disagreeing with the statement.  

    [ Parent ]
    I always look out for gold standard debating buddy
    ;) n/t

    [ Parent ]
    Please substantiate this
    A dem from Buffalo vs an R from Buffalo, the R would be favored.

    The political composition of the state militates against your supposition.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    Directly there isn;'t one I agree
    But if it came down to 2 people, both upstate, from the same region, I'd say there must be a BIG reason for that.  And I'd say the reason would be one that would favor the R.

    Two unknown player from the same region upstate but differing parties is a ridiculous proposition really, but if it came down to it, it would have to be due to Dem corruption and unelectability.


    [ Parent ]
    By PVI, PA ain't changing at all
    2000: D+1 (calculated, I can't find  a direct source)
    2004: D+2.5
    2008: D+1.5

    Unfortunately, I think trends in western PA are similar to trends in eastern KY / most of WV. That seems to be counterbalancing the trends in the Philly suburbs.

    And in polls so far, I've seen only one where the likely D candidate for Gov is within 10 points of the likely R.  


    [ Parent ]
    As I stated
    Philly has no one runnign for Governor, so it will probably siwtch to Republican.  I'd put money on Rendell to win a 3rd term otherwise.

    Western PA is turning redder because western PA is actually losing population.  I think the views are still the same, its just that shrinking populations cause voices to be heard louder and louder.

    PVI stuff is nice and all, but we've got 2 Dem senators, 12-7 congressional delegation, 5 straight Dem presidential wins.  I mena Pataki won 3 or 4 terms as governor of NY, but NY was still considered a solid blue state.

    It may still need to be contested, but its still solid bloue, just have to defend it a little each cycle.


    [ Parent ]
    You are looking at only the last 2 cycles
    Only after two horrible cycles for Republicans.  Remember this state had 2 Republican Senators, 12 Republican Congresscritters and control of both houses before 2006.  The Republicans still have a very strong hold on the State Senate (30-20), control the judiciary, are only a few seats behind in the State House, and dominate local government in the Philly suburbs.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    The fact
    No Republican nominee for the White House has carried the state in over twenty years is not to be sniffed at.

    [ Parent ]
    True, but
    It is not the only office on the ballot either.  Using the presidential race to outweigh everything else is foolish.  In fact, I would ignore 1992 and 1996 in any state's analysis since we had a strong third party candidate on the ballot.  

    I believe state legislative and congressional seat totals are a better measure seeing, especially in states without term limits like PA, seeing the races face similar characters and are more frequent.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


    [ Parent ]
    Oh I agree
    Just saying there is truth to both sides here as in everything.

    [ Parent ]
    And there are lots of states
    Where your standard doesn't fit at all. Particularly in the south. Just like polls we have to take everything into account - local, national, legislative and federal representation.

    [ Parent ]
    And after this election if you have
    A Republican legislature and governor, a new Republican senator, and 10-9 (R favored) House delegation would it still be "solid" blue? PVI isn't the be all, end all but saying,"We have made gain over the past few cycles, therefore this is solid blue state," doesn't hold water for me.
    I think it really is a battle over semantics, b/c for me, and most people I believe, solid blue means Cali, NY, and MA; states where Obama won with 60%+, not swing states where Republicans often win statewide.  

    [ Parent ]
    What then of Cali
    The have Schwarzenegger as a 2 term governor, Boxer in trouble.  is that trending red?  Cmon....

    [ Parent ]
    True
    But it says more to me that the state isn't trending at all. Not much evidence PA is either. Not since the early 1990s anyway. In a 50-50 nation it leans Democratic, nothing more.

    [ Parent ]
    Agree
    It is like it is stuck as the slight leaning Dem state and if it starts to deviate too far from that, in either direction, it seems to eventually self correct.  

    [ Parent ]
    No it isn't trending red, for the same reason
    PA isn't a "solid" blue state. My whole point was that two elections, in which Democrats were doing well everywhere, does not make a state "solid." California is solid Dem b/c the last 3 PVIs are, approximately, D+7, D+6, D+5.5 and it doesn't elect actual Republicans statewide, Cali voters only vote in socially moderate Republicans and only then it is under extreme circumstances recently. Cali is a real solid blue state, PA is a swing, leaning blue state. The vast majority of the comments seem to agree with this sentiment.    

    [ Parent ]
    Solid blue means it votes Dem in fed elections (to me)
    That, to me is the definition of the current Pennsylvania.  To me its pretty clear that's how PA will vote in 2010, 2012 and beyond.

    [ Parent ]
    so you are confident of PA going blue even if
    the nation as a whole votes 54%+ Republican? That scenario probably won't happen until at least 2016, but I seriously doubt there will be another 5 straight elections of PA going blue at the presidential level.  

    [ Parent ]
    I'd put money on 5 more Dem wins...
    certainly heavily favored compared to republicans even once.  I cant see Obama losing in 2012 so I guess we're only talking 4 more after that.

    Now a lot is going to change in the world but the way I see Republicans nominating candidates in the future with New Hamshire and South Carolina basically choosing the nominee tells me social conservatism will continue to rule their party.

    Dems on the other hand seem to be trying to balance it geographically and focusing on small and large population blocks.  Its still a mess but better than republicans.

    My biggest concern regarding PA voting Repub is actually that Corbett becomes a viable presidential or VP candidate.  Aside from that, I dont see it happeneing.


    [ Parent ]
    Philly has no candidate for governor?
    what about Hoeffel?

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Hoeffel, haha that's funny
    Not laughing at you, just you almost prove the point that Philly has no one in the gov's race.  

    You picked out Hoeffel, who is a former suburban congressman and i think Senate candidate.  The actual Philly guy in the race is the current District attorney, who is being endorsed by the mayor of Philly.

    Even though Philly technically has 2 dogs in the hunt, I stand by Philly having no one in the race.  It has to be the Mayor or maybe a long-term congressman (maybe Fattah), but a former suburb congressman and current DA aren't going to cut it.


    [ Parent ]
    Anthony Williams is the DA?
    thought he was an elected official? Wiki says state sen.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Really, maybe I got it wrong, I thought he was DA
    Regardless, I'm pretty sure he's the Philly guy.  Philly's Mayor Nutter is in all kinds of ads for him, and I get a robo-call from him every 2-3m days lol

    [ Parent ]
    To me, that suggests you believe
    that in PA, party matters less than geography.

    Sounds like the definition of a swing state to me.  


    [ Parent ]
    LOL so when the Dem Mayor of Nashvillebecomes Governor
    Tennessee becomes a swing state?

    [ Parent ]
    The subject state is PA
    AFAIK, there is no yardstick that supports the use of TN as an appropriate analogy.

    [ Parent ]
    Its an appropriate analogy
    If party matters less than geography, you said that makes it a swing state.  

    So a mayor of a large city in tennessee was able to become governor in a state that usually votes Republican in Fed elections.  Hence by your defintiion (geography amttered more thna party) it was a swing state.

    But that was your point of view, to me that's not the case at all.  Using state elections to disprove PA as a solid blue state in Fed elections isn't really resonable either.


    [ Parent ]
    If that's true
    the lack of candidates from the Philly area should not matter at all. But to you it does.

    [ Parent ]
    Not in fed elections
    Not that hard to follow.  Sestak is from the burbs and only 2 term congressman, he'll win over Toomey.

    [ Parent ]
    are people in Philadelphia really all that excited about Specter
    He lost Philadelphia county to Hoeffel in 2004 by 43 points and got about 50k more votes than Bush did.  

    [ Parent ]
    That's the question
    I'd say no, but the machine here might make it appear "yes" on election day.  He's usually the guy partisans vote against, but now he has a D next to his name and endorsements from all the major Philly pols.

    In a race where there weren't these endorsement et al going for Specter, he'd lost by 10-15 points easy.


    [ Parent ]
    Pennsylvania
    First of all, Pennsylvania always has a two term governor. Pennsylvania has never voted out their governor since the change in the constitution in 1968 that allowed governors to run for two terms. Pennsylvanians don't easily vote against their incumbent governors.

    On the flip side, in every open race for the governors race since 1968, the opposing party has won. Thornburg (R) took over for Shapp (D), Casey (D) took over for Thornburg, Ridge (R) took over for Casey, and Randell (D) took over for Ridge. By the way, to most circles in Pennsylvania, Tom Corbett is almost guaranteed to become the next governor of Pennsylvania.

    As far as the senate seat is concerned, it isn't a write off for either candidate. Sure, polls suggest that Sestak has an easier time against Toomey, but it's not guaranteed that Specter goes down against Toomey. I actually think Specter is more likely to turn his poll numbers around - remember in 2004, he looked dead against Joe Hoeffel, and ended up turning it around after a bitter primary.

    Toomey may be too conservative for Pennsylvania, but don't write off PA just because of Philly. Philly and Pittsburgh tend to have lower turn-outs in mid-term elections. Central and Western PA, your more rural areas, are more likely to actually get out there and vote (Especially those in Johnstown/Somerset, who have the big Critz-Burns race.) So, while neither Sestak or Specter are dead by any means, don't automatically assume them as winners just because they are more likely to carry Philly. Remember in the Dem Presidential Primary, Obama carried Philly. He was unable to win over voters in the rest of the state, and lost it to Hillary. You can't just win Philly - you need to win Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, Scranton, Johnstown and St. Marys, as well as either win or tie in Erie.

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)


    [ Parent ]
    In regards to Toomey
    Toomey is not Santorum.  Democrats seem to have some fascination with comparing him to Santorum when the comparison is weak at best.  Toomey on economic issues is to the right of Santorum, but when it comes to presentation and the social issues, Toomey is very much to the left of Santorum.  In fact, an argument can be made that Toomey is not a social conservative as he has literally been all over the place on the issues.  In addition, his style is far less bombastic when compared to Santorum.  Toomey did win a D+2 district three times with two of the times being double digit victories.  This means Toomey will be not be perceived as a rabid social conservative in the Philly suburbs like Santorum was after 2000.  Remember Santorum never really went off the deep end until after the 2000 election and he won all the Philly suburban counties before going off the deep end.  

    If Toomey can do the same thing, any Democrat is dead in the water.  Their path to victory might be to actually to attack Toomey on economic issues in western PA.  Remember the region is still highly Democratic on the local level.  Focus on Toomey being such a fiscal conservative out west and the Democratic candidate might be able to mitigate for any losses he suffers in the suburbs.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


    [ Parent ]
    Well...
    To say that Toomey is to the left of Santorum is saying that McCain is a liberal because he's to the left of George W. Bush. Toomey may not be using social issues as a campaign issue, but he is anti-abortion and anti-gay marriage (though he claims, and I do believe, that he will stay out of those issues and let the states decide for themselves). He's not a radical crazy conservative, but he still is pretty conservative. I think after tomorrow, we're going to have a boatload of undecideds up for grabs, something Specter has feasted on in the past.  

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

    [ Parent ]
    I love PA, but...
    Obama's abilities in  the rural areas will not be the same as an in-state person's.  And sorry, but race did play a part.

    I do think Toomey is stronger than most think, but I could see Specter beating him for sure.  I just don't see 2.5M people wanting him in the Senate.


    [ Parent ]
    PA
    I think Specter has the ability and the track record to beat him. I just wouldn't chalk it up to saying "Well, PA's blue, this is a no-brainer." PA is extremely unpredictable. We like being the center of attention during elections.

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

    [ Parent ]
    I dont...lol
    especially the years when DE and NJ have major electiosn too.  The ads become overwhelming on TV...

    [ Parent ]
    I'm not from Philly
    So I wouldn't know. I'm from the Northwestern part of the state - Elk County, to be exact. About an hour south of the New York. I also go to school in the Altoona/Johnstown region, so I'm getting a lot of Critz/Burns stuff. No Delaware stuff, though.

    Let me say this, though. You talk about having a "Philly guy" in the race. Randell's approval ratings are tanked so low in this part of the state that I would doubt another man from Philly could become governor in the next two cycles. Randell is only polling in the 20's in Pittsburgh, and in the teens in my area.

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)


    [ Parent ]
    The geographic thing plays statewide
    I lived in the 50th legislative district in the extreme southwest corner of the state for a number of years.  About 90 percent of the population has never been within 2 hours of metro Philadelphia and candidates bash the Philadelphia region all the time.  Being from Philadelphia is not a plus out west.  If you had two candidates with little name ID, the local candidate would win regardless especially among Democrats.  There is a strong factionalism in the Democratic ranks simply not found on the Republican side.  Now I think listing the county of the candidate matters less for Republicans.  I think it will help Cawley, the endorsed candidate, in the Lt. Governor's race as he is the only southeastern candidate in a field of 7 teabaggers.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    PA is a weird state
    Pennsylvania is not a solid Democratic state.  Remember it had 2 Republican Senators, 12 Republican Congressmen and controlled both houses of the legislature before the 2006 elections.  The Republicans still control the State Senate by a 30-20 margin and there appears to be little hope of that changing any time soon.  In addition, the Republicans boosted their control of the state judiciary last fall.  Saying Pennsylvania is a solid Democratic state really ignores the facts.

    The Democrats might be actually entering troubled waters when it comes to Pennsylvania for the next few cycles for a few reasons.  

    First, the Democratic gains in the Philly suburbs are hollow.  Taking a few congressional seats and winning a few statewide races does not erase the fact that the vast majority of state legislative, local and judicial offices are held by Republicans.  The Democratic gains were based on an adversion to the Deep South social conservatism of the Bush administration.  With the Bush administration gone and the focus now on economic issues, which has always been the strong suit of the Philly suburban Republicans.  If this race is not about values, the Democrats cannot count on Philly suburban votes.  Moderate Republicans like myself voted for some Democrats in the last few cycles to send a message about the values issues, but the Democrats have not got the message either that voters like me are sick of the deficits and handouts.

    Second, the influence of organized labor is waning in Pennsylvania.  Most residents of PA do not even have a relative that is in a union unless it is a government employees union.  Appealing to the unions might be a plus in some areas, but the great union base of support is not enough to get across the finish line any longer.

    Third, the Pennsylvania Republicans are pushing all the right buttons at the moment.  Corbett is not a rabid social conservative.  Toomey really does not know where he stands on the social issues or more likely does not care about them.  The congressional candidates in the Philly suburbs are not rabid social conservatives either.  None of them come off as Rick Santorum style nutcases.

    Fourth, the impending fiscal meltdown of the state pension system really plays into the hands of the Republicans.  They are doing a great job of making the local races about the fiscal timebomb especially in the few places where the Democrats did make inroads in the Philly suburbs.  There is a strong sense even among Philly suburban progressives that the region is overtaxed to help prop up the rest of the state (lets face it, outside the suburbs, the rest of the state regardless if its rural or urban is a fiscal basketcase).  

    At a certain point, this is going to break the Obama Democratic coalition nationally, but it might first break in places like the Philly suburbs.  Progressives often seem to think moderates like myself started voting for some Democrats because we agreed with the economic agenda, which is far from the truth.  In the end, I might disagree with the bible thumpers on the values, but what impacts my wallet ultimate matters.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


    [ Parent ]
    There will always be exceptions
    NY's state Senate has been republicna forever until 2008 or 2009, was NY not a solidly blue state prior to this?

    [ Parent ]
    From
    what I can tell. The two major battleground regions in Pennsylvania this cycle is Western PA and the Philadelphia suburbs. Democrats face a very uphill battle in both regions. I expect the Republicans to make major gains in Western PA this cycle. Corbett and Toomey will hammer Onorato, Specter or Sestak (whoever wins the primary) on HCR and Cap and Trade like no tomorrow. Corbett and Toomey sweeping the top of the ticket in that region might knock out vulnerable Democratic congressman/state representatives.

    Philadelphia suburbs are a toss up at the moment for reasons you listed. The moderate Republicans and independents are feeling burnt out by the economy. And the GOP aren't nominating rabid right wingers like they did in the 1990's. Their nominating moderates, or Bob McDonnell types who downplay the social issues and focus on the pocket book. Corbett would be wise to follow the Bob McDonnell play book, nationalize the race in Western PA, focus on the pocket book in SEPA.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12


    [ Parent ]
    I could
    back you up on the social issues thing. I'm sure you and other "Rendell Republicans" held your noses and reluctantly voted for Bob Casey Jr. in 2006 because he was the lesser of two evils.  

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    Rendell republicans, I like that. <nt>


    [ Parent ]
    I voted for Mickey Mouse
    There is no way any Casey would ever receive my vote.  If there is anything that could push me to vote for a bible thumper it is a fiscally liberal socially conservative Democrat.

    I grew up in PA-12 where most of the electorate and politicans are fiscally liberal and socially conservative Democrats.  Lets just say my ideological orientation is polar opposite to the orientation of the region.  

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


    [ Parent ]
    LOL why is it always Mickey Mouse
    I voted Libertarian for President last year.  Might as well give another party a chance to grow (hoepfully) and present a new ideology.

    I just have no idea where Mickey stands on HCR :-)


    [ Parent ]
    Ahhh, now we have the truth
    rdw72777 is a Libertarian.

    [ Parent ]
    Nope, registered Dem for life.
    Just didn't care for either candidate that election.  Libertarian wouldn't try to prove the state is solid blue i dont think :-)

    [ Parent ]
    The most effective troll
    would convince reality based Ds to ignore reality.

    [ Parent ]
    Troll?
    You might want to step back.  I'm not trying to convince you of anything.  You can validate recent Federal election results, voting trends, demographic changes and population movements to validate everything I have said.  They all paint the same picture...a state that has moved to solid blue at the Federal level.  So its not Cali or Massachusetts, what does it matter whether is 52% or 80% so long as its Democratic.


    [ Parent ]
    PA-12?
    More towards Johnstown or Ebensburg?

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

    [ Parent ]
    PA-12
    Try the other end of the monster called PA-12.  I live in Carmichaels, Greene County, for a number of years.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    Eesh
    Yeah, you're definitely in the safe haven of social conservatism out there.

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

    [ Parent ]
    The land of the bitter clingers
    They are definitely bitterly clinging to their guns and religion as Obama said.  The part Obama forgot to mention is how they bitterly cling to the old economy.  The economic plight of the region is largely the fault of local officials and the people.  It is a region where going to college is shunned, but people complain when their kids get out of high school and get dead end jobs paying $10 an hour.  

    People ask me frequently why I am turned off from social programs and I just think of the ineffectiveness of the programs I saw on a daily basis. The programs never lifted anyone out of povery and encouraged a total lack of responsiblity just furthering the poverty.  

    In addition, I saw the failure and hypocrisy of the social conservatism that is so cherished on a daily basis.  Every time I go back to visit my parents, I go to the grocery store just to see how many pregnant teenagers I can count or talk to a local law enforcement official describing how the heroin problem is getting worse or talk to locals who use racial slurs in every day language.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7


    [ Parent ]
    Agree with
    you there. On paper social programs should help. And they do. But for social programs to work, the people have to have the initiative to pull themselves up from poverty. I'm a liberal on most issues, but I have a very negative opinion on welfare. Especially since you often see in the projects rows upon rows of Satellite TV dishes. Seriously now?! I don't want my tax dollars used to pay for your Direct TV service.

    People in coal country rely on so called "generational jobs" which are quickly becoming obsolete or are being shipped overseas where you could pay someone pennies a day in China to mine coal or make steel where here you would have to pay workers a living wage. And for a long time its been fact that your grandfather, your father, and yourself would work in the same mine. But what happens when the mine closes down, or the steel mill closes down? Then your in deep trouble.

    Also places like these, where religion holds a lot of sway is why I will become an atheist. The church is focused on trying to ban abortion, while they are not lifting a finger to stop teenage pregnancies. And babies with teenage mothers are statistically more likely to wash out in life. I would of hated to live where you grew up. It seems like a very depressing place.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12


    [ Parent ]
    Giving views on issues is dangerous ground on this site
    I disagree with you, but I won't discuss details. Everyone should simply look at statistics showing how well (or poorly) the War on Poverty worked when it was fought hard, but shouldn't discuss it here.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    Not trying to start a debate...
    Just explaining why I am the electoral oddity that I am so people understand where my analysis is coming from.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    [ Parent ]
    I actually thought you were fine
    But there's a danger in getting into longer discussions about policy.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    I second your views on welfare.
    People definitely should have the initiative to pull themselves out of poverty. The kind of welfare reform I'd use would be to give a time limit of the welfare and encourage people to pull themselves up with the metaphorical bootstraps given to them. If they have shown legitimately that they can't yet pull themselves up, then give them an extension, but with a deadline.

    And that's all I'll say for now. Just wanted to throw in 2 cents from another socially liberal, fiscally pragmatic (which would be in the gray area between liberal and conservative) individual.

    My blog
    Twitter
    Scribd
    28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


    [ Parent ]
    I think you are overstating
    the Philly surge. Obama didn't overperform Kerry that much there percentagewise and in raw votes only milked an extra 70,000 or so. I think his big improvement was in the suburbs and NE.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Yeah, see here.
    http://uselectionatlas.org/RES...

    Not a big improvement for Obama in Philly.  Likely, it's close to ceiling there.  The caveat, however, is the possibility that there was still a surge in raw votes in Philly.


    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


    [ Parent ]
    Exactly
    Obama didn't actually change much in Philly % wise, but got new voters (like he did pretty much everywhere he won).  Hard to improve on 80 or 90% or whatever it is usually.

    But my point was countering an Obama surge helping our congressional candidates when we only gained 1 house seat.


    [ Parent ]
    In that case
    What about the fact that Toomey also served two terms in Congress? "Big Bad Washington Establishment Guy," right?

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    PA-Sen: Sestak would work to defeat Toomey if Specter wins
    Short of an endorsement, though.

    http://politicalticker.blogs.c...

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


    GA-School Superintendent
    Incumbent Republican Kathy Cox is calling it quits.

    Interestingly, this leaves only three statewide, partisan offices with incumbents running: U.S. Senator, Lieutenant Governor, and Secretary of State.  Compare that to the open seats for Governor, Attorney General, Insurance Commissioner, Labor Commissioner, Agriculture Commissioner, a seat on the Public Service Commission, and now School Superintendent.

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


    And what are the chances of party flips?
    Good and bad. I know Barnes has a good chance and Thurmond an outside one but what about the others?

    [ Parent ]
    Still researching that.
    I'm planning a series of diaries on the Georgia races (looking a three) but it'll have to wait until after I update the Georgia Race Tracker and research candidates, districts, etc.

    We control Attorney General, Labor Commissioner, Agriculture Commissioner.  All the rest are Republican-held.  With all of these open seats, we have a better than usual chance in taking them.  I think Republicans will have the edge in the four Commissioner races due to special interest money.  I'm least confident about Agriculture and PSC than I am about Labor and Insurance.  Attorney General is one area, however, where we have a monied special interest on our side: lawyers, so I think.  Ditto School Superintendent; the teachers' unions should be on our side and we have a HUGE opening due to education cuts.  

    My early projections are we take the Governor's race and the School Superintdent race, keep the Attorney General office, lose the Ag. Commissioner's office, and fail to win the Lt. Governorship, U.S. Senate, Insurance Commissioner, and Public Service Commissioner.  I have no clue about Labor Commissioner.

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


    [ Parent ]
    Again, though, I'm not sure about any of those.
    Besides Governor and U.S. Senate.

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    [ Parent ]
    Governor would be awesome
    I always though had Barnes not lost in 2002 he was probably leading choice for VP nom in 2004.  It would have failed miserably but after the wave in 2002 pushing out Barnes and Cleland, I'd like to extract some revenge.  

    Barnes may have lost due to the wave (and how dare he remove the confederate flag) but the way Cleland went down will bother me until I'm dead.


    [ Parent ]
    Knew I was forgetting one.
    I'll give the Republicans the edge in the Secretary of State's race, too.

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    [ Parent ]
    I look forward
    To you keeping us all up to date.

    [ Parent ]
    OR-Gov (R)
    Mail-in ballots have been at our house for a couple of weeks, and I'm about to go drop ours off for the primary tomorrow. But the ad volume suggests that most campaigns believe that there are a lot of votes still yet to be submitted.

    Just saw the first John Lim ad - coming out for the Arizona anti-Hispanic law. Odd to hear someone with a Korean accent talking like an Uncle Tom. ref http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

    But that will take votes away from Chirs Dudley. Since the most recent poll that I noted in the Weekend open thread makes sense to me, I could definitely see that race ending up 40/30/20/10 (Alley/Dudley/Lim/Others).


    Lim
    Ive seen one ad from him, and that was only a few days ago. I think if he breaks into double digits that will be amazing.  

    [ Parent ]
    PA-Gov
    Wasn't there a poll cited in a Digest yesterday that showed a much closer contest between the likely Democratic and presumed likely Republican candidates for Governor of Pennsylvania than any other poll, or is this a false memory?

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    No
    I remember the poll, and the race is going to be tight. I just take history and the common murmurs on the ground over pre-primary polls. And, even as a Democrat, I'm not sold on Onorato. I'm voting for Hoeffel tomorrow, and then, when he doesn't win, I may vote Independent in the general. But with the demographics of the state, Onorato will look good...until a month out, when Corbett starts to pull away.  

    23, Male, PA-05 (summer) PA-12 (winter)

    [ Parent ]
    Quinnipiac 43-37 Corbett
    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x128...

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    They've had some funky numbers
    This cycle in PA and Ohio. Still, I see people writing Onorato off already and I think it is premature to say the least. I get the history of party switching like clockwork but people know Corbett and yet he has never come close to getting over 50 percent in all these polls. Now, clearly he is the favorite but once people start to tune in to the Republican versus Democrat contrasts then I think this will be a real race.

    [ Parent ]
    CA-Gov: Poizner releases new ad, links eBay to pornography
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

    A pretty crummy ad for someone who's supposedly on the brink of taking the lead.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    Taegan has a poll up
    Suggesting Whitman is still way ahead.

    [ Parent ]
    That seems like the ad of a desperate candidate
    That's really pretty sleazy, especially having a kid meant to look under 18 leering at his laptop.

    [ Parent ]
    It
    seems stupid, but remember they're playing to a socially conservative electorate. An electorate that doesn't want to hear that they are more likely to view porn than "godless people" from San Francisco would.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    It's
    interesting that today is you tube's 5th anniversary. What would we do without it!  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    It's
    interesting that today is you tube's 5th anniversary. What would we do without it?

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    LOL
    Sorry for the sorta double post. I meant to exchange my explanation point with a question mark but apparently I didn't have time.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

    [ Parent ]
    Does anybody else
    Find it strange that despite the deluge of polling Rasmussen seems to have stopped making a final call on races? No final poll in MA or in anything since from what I recall. Certainly not on the Monday before election day as was so often the case before. Or am I imagining things?


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