| Charlie Crist leaves the Governorship open so Alex Sink (D) and Bill McCollum (R) are running for it. Sink is the current CFO for Florida and she won with 53% of the vote in 2006. McCollum is the Attorney General of Florida (who supports repealing the healthcare bill which prevents companies from denying people with preexisting conditions) and he was elected with 52% of the vote in 2006. The campaign has not kicked into high gear but a recent poll showed McCollum leading by 9. This looks like a big lead for McCollum but a month before, the same firm showed McCollum leading by 15. Sink will have to win without high turnout like Obama had in 2008 but she is more popular in rural areas so margins there may make up for lost young and minority votes. It is even possible that McCollum will not the primary but the baselines are done assuming he does.
Sink's background: she worked with Bank of America until Governor Lawton Chiles (D) appointed her for the state education comission. She then ran for CFO in 2006 and defeated Tom Lee (R)
McCollum's background: he was a congressman from Orlando from 1980 to 2001, representing Disney World at one point. He ran for Senate in 2000 losing 51%-46% to Bill Nelson who prevented McCollum from having large margins in rural areas. In 2006, McCollum ran for Attorney General and won, winning large margins in the I-4 Corridor.
About Florida regions if you are not familiar with them: the Gold Coast is the Miami to Palm Beach coastline, the I-4 Corridor includes Tampa, Orlando, Daytona Beach and the other areas near I-4. The rest of Floria is...the rest of Florida.
How I did the baselines: I added the percentages of each county from the 2006 CFO election, 2006 Attorney General election and 2008 Presidential election and divided the result by three. I then subtracted 1 point from Sink. The percentages below show how the Gubernatorial election will look if the race ties. Also, I am very sorry the baselines are not in one straight line. Here are some helpful links:
For 2006 CFO election: http://election.dos.state.fl.u...
For 2006 Attorney General election: http://election.dos.state.fl.u...
For 2008 Presidential election: http://www.uselectionatlas.org...
Now finally the baselines:
County name Sink McCollum Other
Alachua 59% 40% 1%
Baker 27% 72% 1%
Bay 32% 67% 1%
Bradford 35% 64% 1%
Brevard 45% 54% 1%
Broward 66% 33% 1%
Calhoun 42% 57% 1%
Charlotte 44% 55% 1%
Citrus 44% 55% 1%
Clay 28% 71% 1%
Collier 35% 64% 1%
Columbia 39% 60% 1%
DeSoto 43% 56% 1%
Dixie 42% 57% 1%
Duval 44% 55% 1%
Escambia 38% 61% 1%
Flager 49% 50% 1%
Franklin 47% 52% 1%
Gadsden 72% 27% 1%
Gilchrest 39% 60% 1%
Glades 47% 52% 1%
Gulf 43% 56% 1%
Hamilton 51% 48% 1%
Hardee 36% 63% 1%
Hendry 45% 54% 1%
Hernando 47% 52% 1%
Highlands 41% 58% 1%
Hillsborough 48% 51% 1%
Holmes 31% 68% 1%
Indian River 40% 59% 1%
Jackson 43% 56% 1%
Jefferson 60% 39% 1%
Lafayette 38% 61% 1%
Lake 41% 58% 1%
Lee 41% 58% 1%
Leon 63% 36% 1%
Levy 44% 55% 1%
Liberty 45% 54% 1%
Madison 56% 43% 1%
Manatee 45% 54% 1%
Marion 44% 55% 1%
Martin 42% 57% 1%
Miami-Dade 56% 43% 1%
Monroe 52% 47% 1%
Nassau 31% 68% 1%
Okaloosa 26% 73% 1%
Okeechobee 46% 53% 1%
Orange 53% 46% 1%
Osceola 52% 47% 1%
Palm Beach 62% 37% 1%
Pasco 46% 53% 1%
Pinellas 51% 48% 1%
Polk 44% 55% 1%
Putnam 44% 55% 1%
Santa Rosa 27% 72% 1%
Sarasota 48% 51% 1%
Seminole 43% 56% 1%
St. Johns 34% 65% 1%
St. Lucie 53% 46% 1%
Sumter 37% 62% 1%
Suwanee 38% 61% 1%
Taylor 44% 55% 1%
Union 35% 64% 1%
Volusia 51% 48% 1%
Wakulla 50% 49% 1%
Walton 30% 69% 1%
Washington 34% 65% 1%
Now for those of us (like me) who like visual aides, here is a map of the county percentages.
Dark Red: McCollum 65%+
Red: McCollum 60%-64%
Lighter Red: McCollum 55%-59%
Even Lighter Red: McCollum 50%-54%
Turquoise: Sink 50%-54%
Blue: Sink 55%-59%
Dark Blue: Sink 60%-64%
Even Darker Blue: Sink 65%+
A little more analysis:
The map shows Sink doing well along the Gold Coast, the Tallahassee area while winning a few counties in the I-4 corridor. McCollum does well in the rest of the state, winning the Jacksonville area, the whiter retiree communities in the north and south as well as the Pensacola area. To nitpick, Sink did very well in the rural counties around Tallahassee in 2006 but since they are trending rightward, the maps show her winning much less than she did in 2006. Also, McCollum is from Orange County (Orlando) so this should help reduce Sink's margin there (McCollum won 55% in Orange County in 2006) but Orange County's leftward shift should give Sink a small margin, as shown in the map.
Overall, the counties colored blue appear to not match Obama's coalition which produced big margins in Orange County but not around Tallahassee. The results should be similar to a regular statewide Florida election.
P.S Just in case you are wondering what I will post on swing state project next, it will be my first redistricting diary in a few months, this time on my homestate of California!! It has taken me forever to write and losing half of the document in cyberspace does not help either. I should have it up hopefully in 1-2 weeks (I was thinking the same thing 4 weeks ago though.) |
