KY-Sen: Mongiardo Losing Ground to Conway

by: James L.

Thu May 13, 2010 at 11:55 PM EDT

Daniel Mongiardo (D): 39 (39) [47]
Jack Conway (D): 36 (32) [31]
Other: 10 (12) [7]
Undecided: 15 (17) [15]

Rand Paul (R): 45 (44) [40]
Trey Grayson (R): 35 (32) [28]
Other: 7 (7) [14]
Undecided: 13 (17) [18]
(MoE: ±5%)

In his post, Markos has trend lines dating back to his last poll of this race, commissioned in March. However, R2K also polled this race just a week ago for a group of local news outlets. I've inserted those numbers in parens, and the March numbers in brackets. Between this poll and SurveyUSA's latest poll showing Mongiardo only ahead by a single point, I think we can say that Conway is making his move. But will it be enough on Tuesday?

General election nums (March in brackets):

Dan Mongiardo (D): 38 [37]
Rand Paul (R): 43 [46]
Undecided: 19 [17]

Dan Mongiardo (D): 36 [38]
Trey Grayson (R): 42 [43]
Undecided: 22 [19]

Jack Conway (D): 39 [39]
Rand Paul (R): 42 [45]
Undecided: 19 [16]

Jack Conway (D): 35 [36]
Trey Grayson (R): 43 [44]
Undecided: 22 [20]
(MoE: ±4%)

The situation looks mildly better for Democrats against Rand Paul, but a looming weakness remains: both Mongiardo and Conway are fairly beat up, with favorables at 47-42 and 46-44, respectively. Grayson's at 52-27 and Rand Paul sits at 56-27. Hopefully the Democratic nominee can do a better job exploiting Paul's weirdo politics than Trey Grayson has been able to do in the Republican primary.