Quinnipiac (5/4-10, registered voters, 3/30-4/5 in parens):
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 40 (41)
Pat Toomey (R): 47 (46)
Undecided: 12 (12)
Joe Sestak (D): 40 (34)
Pat Toomey (R): 42 (42)
Undecided: 16 (22)
Dan Onorato (D): 37 (33)
Tom Corbett (R): 43 (45)
Undecided: 19 (21)
Jack Wagner (D): 28 (29)
Tom Corbett (R): 47 (48)
Undecided: 23 (21)
Joe Hoeffel (D): 26 (28)
Tom Corbett (R): 49 (50)
Undecided: 22 (21)
(MoE: 2.9%)
Quinnipiac released the general election half of its sample today (note that they still aren't polling likely voters on November, despite their switch to LVs for the primary). Two big things leap out here: first, Joe Sestak has really turned the pro-Specter electability argument on its head. What seemed to hold him back earlier was his unknownness, which has changed now that he's actually advertising and increasing his profile. Sestak has pulled within 2 of Toomey, up from an 8 point gap, while Specter has lost ground vs. Toomey, currently a 7-point gap instead of April's 5. In addition, there are more persuadables left open in Sestak/Toomey. And second, while I'd just about written the gubernatorial race off for dead, it also seems like Dan Onorato is trying to make a race of this against Tom Corbett, as he too is getting better-known throughout the state. Onorato within 6 is the best result any pollster has seen so far.
Suffolk (5/4-10, likely voters, no trendlines):
Joe Sestak (D): 49
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 40
Undecided: 12
Dan Onorato (D): 46
Anthony Williams (D): 13
Jack Wagner (D): 9
Joe Hoeffel (D): 8
Undecided: 25
(MoE: 4.9%)
Suffolk weighs in with their first poll of the Pennsylvania race, and these are some attention-getting numbers: they find Joe Sestak up by 9 over Arlen Specter, by far the largest margin anyone has seen for him. They also have Dan Onorato at 46, which is the first time he's broken into the 40s against his multiple opponents. (Suffolk, as you may remember, was bang-on in predicting their home state in MA-Sen, but whiffed pretty badly on NJ-Gov, so you can decide how much weight to give this one.) They also looked at the GOP primaries, and like everyone else, found nothing to see here: Tom Corbett beats Sam Rohrer 58-20 and Pat Toomey beats Peg Luksik 60-9.
Muhlenberg College for Allentown Morning Call (pdf) (5/9-12, likely voters, 5/8-11 in parentheses):
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 44 (45)
Joe Sestak (D): 44 (45)
Undecided: 12 (9)
Dan Onorato (D): 39 (37)
Anthony Williams (D): 14 (15)
Joe Hoeffel (D): 11 (8)
Jack Wagner (D): 9 (9)
Undecided: 27 (30)
(MoE: ±5%)
There's little to report in today's Muhlenberg daily tracker. Specter and Sestak are still tied, although undecideds have ticked up a bit. Finally, at least one more poll is forthcoming: Research 2000 will have a poll out tomorrow, if not later tonight. |
