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SSP Daily Digest: 5/13 (Morning Edition)

by: James L.

Thu May 13, 2010 at 8:11 AM EDT


  • FL-Sen: Anyone else think that Charlie Crist may be risking a long cycle of bad press over his decision not to permit refunds to Republican contributors after all? NRSC Chair John Cornyn sent Crist a letter scolding him for holding onto the money, and the announcement has also generated another round of headlines snarking on Crist for changing his mind about yet another issue. Say what you will about Arlen Specter, but at least he shed his Republican donor money with little drama.

  • NC-11: It's (almost) official -- there will be no GOP runoff for the right to tackle Democrat Heath Shuler. Businessman Jeff Miller finished the final canvass with 40.25% of the vote, a hair above the runoff line.

  • NJ-03: Here's something you don't see every day: GOP candidate and former Philly Eagle Jon Runyan has unleashed a hard-hitting oppo research file... on himself. After being dogged in the press recently over a DUI arrest in his college days, his dubious voting record, and huge property tax breaks that he receives after he decided to designate the area around his home as "farmland", Runyan decided that he may as well lance all of his remaining boils. Runyan's disclosures include late property tax payments, two lawsuits and a tax lien.

  • NY-15: Activist Jonathan Tasini has decided to abandon his unnoticed primary challenge against Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, and set his sights on the House instead. His new target? Embattled Dem Rep. Charlie Rangel.

  • PA-12: The DCCC has thrown down another $290,000 on media buys against Tim Burns, bringing their total investment in this race up to nearly $940,000.

  • PA-19: Todd Platts' Republican primary opponent, Mike Smeltzer, is trying to turn Platts' job application to the Government Accountability Office against him in the primary. In a recent mailer to voters, Smeltzer suggested that Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell will have the power to hand-pick Platts' replacement. Platts is, of course, crying foul at that bit of tasty misinformation.

  • SD-AL: GOP Secretary of State Chris Nelson, who's competing in a three-way primary for the right to take on Dem Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin, had to walk back comments that suggested that he was at least birther-curious. Nelson now says that he firmly believes that Barack Obama was born in the United States.

  • UT-02: A Republican state legislator got caught scheming on his Facebook account to encourage 2nd CD Republicans to vote to defeat incumbent Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson in his primary against retired schoolteacher Claudia Wright. State Rep. Carl Wimmer was later forced to apologize for the Limbaughesque suggestion, but some teabagger activist named Chase Everton is leading an online effort to help spread the idea around. I'm not sure how successful all this may be, considering that many 'baggers will likely want to have a say in the Republican Senate primary.

  • WA-02: Republican John Koster, a former state Representative who lost an open seat race against Democrat Rick Larsen in 2000, has put out an internal poll showing him well within striking distance of an upset in this D+3 district. Larsen leads Koster by 44-37, down from a 48-24 lead in December.

  • Dealers: USA Today looks at the political headaches that last year's "Cash For Clunkers" initiative is causing for auto dealers-turned-Republican candidates, including Tom Ganley (OH-13), Jim Renacci (OH-16), and Scott Rigell (VA-02).

  • CA-Lt. Gov: According to his latest round of internal polling, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom leads Los Angeles City Councilwoman Janice Hahn by 47-26 in the Democratic primary for Lt. Governor.
  • James L. :: SSP Daily Digest: 5/13 (Morning Edition)
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    GA-12: Barrow loses the support of a county party chair
    http://www.41nbc.com/news/1005...

    I think it's interesting that this is a Democratic leader from the white, rural (popluation under 10,000) part of the district.  You'd think this area would be the least angered by Barrow's backstabbing.  There's no guarantee that Brewer is representative of the county politically or racially, but I think it's at least interesting.  

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


    They'd need a stronger candidate than Regina Thomas to beat him
    Her $4k war chest isn't going to be doing much.

    [ Parent ]
    Nope
    Thomas has no chance. She might do better than she did last time, but that's not too difficult.

    [ Parent ]
    Another Article
    Here's an article from the Ledger-Enquirer that gives a little more insight:

    http://www.ledger-enquirer.com...

    I know most rural counties around our state do not have a very active county party, mainly because until recently there has never been a need since we ran things for so long (and still do on a local level in most of these areas).

    The reason I say all that is because if the county party is not that influential in local politics, chances are those who are active in the county party are probably not your typical Democrat in the area. They're probably more of the party activist type, and likely more liberal than the are as a whole.

    My guess is that Brewer's anger does not represent the view of most Democrats in Montgomery County. Quickly glancing through the 2008 results, it's still strongly Democratic locally, though it went for McCain by a 70-29 margin. I highly doubt Barrow's vote against healthcare is viewed as a bad thing by the voters over there.

    Sure, it might look bad for Barrow on the surface, and provide for some bad press, but I doubt he's worried.

    Of course, I'm making a lot of assumptions, so I could be completely wrong.


    [ Parent ]
    sounds like Brewer is a local leader of the "fewer, and not actually better democrats" movement
    It's a deeply conservative district and only a credible conservative incumbent democrat can win it in 2010.  Regina Thomas is the kind of candidate that can win the support of the 30-40% strong democrats in the district easily and could never win the other 11-21% necessary.

    [ Parent ]
    Sounds like an opportunity for mischief
    Just like UT-02.

    [ Parent ]
    At least GA-12 is has a positive '08 PVI
    D+1, I think

    UT-02 is like R+double digits.


    [ Parent ]
    yeah
    if Matheson goes down in the UT-2 primary, that seat moves to Solid R.  With an R+15 PVI, it'd be a no doubter.  

    I severely doubt that happens though.

    Speaking of GA-2, do you get the feeling that if Barnes doesn't win the governorship, that the republicans are going to gerrymander that seat (and GA-12), making 4 districts in south Georgia of roughly R+6 or therabout?  That would put Barrow, Marshall, and Bishop all out to pasture more than likely, making a 13-3 or 12-4 repub map depending on whether they decide to cede the Dems the new seat in metro Atlanta.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


    [ Parent ]
    GA-12 is majority minority.
    GA-02 wasn't this time, but may end being that way.  Their ability to touch those districts is limited.

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    [ Parent ]
    Check that. GA-02 is almost majority-minority.
    But who knows what the drift will look like.  I'd more likely bet on it getting more diverse than less.

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    [ Parent ]
    I bet Bishop will get an ultra-safe district
    Or at least, as close as a Democrat in Southern Georgia can get to an ultra-safe district. This would prevent any sort of racial tensions from building up. The GOP would probably weaken Kingston or Broun a little bit to attack Marshall and Barrow and then draw a new seat for themselves in the Atlanta exurbs.

    If Barnes wins, my guess is that the tradeoff will be protection for Barrow/Marshall in exchange for a new GOP-leaning 14th.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08


    [ Parent ]
    Dammit. I meant GA-12.


    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    [ Parent ]
    The Chicken Lady is Losing her lead
     In the primary too
    http://www.lvrj.com/news/tea-p...

    for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




    17, CA-06,  


    If Sharon Angle wins
    Reid can count on another six years. I think that's true of the other candidates as well, but more with her (she's a total nutjob)

    [ Parent ]
    Agreed
    Even amidst a gaggle of teabagging right-wingers, Angle stands out as wingnuttiest of all.

    If he's smart, Reid will get involved in the Republican primary (beyond just attacking Lowden) and quietly try to ensure that Angle is the nominee.

    Because if it's her and not Lowden or Tarkanian, I'd move this seat rating back solidly in favor of Team Blue.

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


    [ Parent ]
    PA-12 - spending numbers
    something's not precisely adding up, ref http://voices.washingtonpost.c...
    The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has spent $767,000 in independent expenditures in support of former congressional staffer Mark Critz (D)

    $767k + $290k = $1,057k, which is > $940k listed in the diary

    Per the same link, the NRCC has spent $959k


    At this stage
    I always try to look at how the campaigns are behaving to  get an idea of where the race is.  Both sides are still spending pretty big, and both sides seem to be running negative ads right now.  Seems like both sides consider the race up for grabs.  

    From what I can surmise, Critz's internals have him up and Burns's internals have the race dead even.  I'd have to give Critz a very slight edge based on what I know right now.  Burns really stepped in it when he gave Critz an opening to accuse him of attacking the late Rep. Murtha.  That seemed to be the turning point from a slight lean Burns race to a slight lean Critz race.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    [ Parent ]
    Also in PA
    my observation is that Team Sestak is acting like it is expecting to win.  He came out with a pretty upbeat contrast ad today, which he presumably will throw into the mix with his devestating attack ad from last week.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    Think both observations are correct


    [ Parent ]
    PA races
    I have more confidence in Critz winning than Sestak.  I think the 'mo is with Critz, while Obama's support may have halted Sestak's 'mo, at least for now.

    [ Parent ]
    From the dynamics of the race
    I'm expecting undecideds to break hard for Sestak.  I think he'll win by 5 or so.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    Hope so
    But never count Arlen out, especially when he's desperate.

    [ Parent ]
    This was the breakdown in terms of geography in the '08 Dem Prez primary...
    Pittsburgh/Western Penn - 26%
    Central/Northern Penn - 21%
    Philly - 19%
    Philly suburbs - 19%
    Northeast Penn - 15%

    I'll take a shot and say the results in each look something like...

    Pittsburgh/Western Penn:
    Sestak - 56%
    Specter - 44%

    Central/Northern Penn:
    Sestak - 52%
    Specter - 48%

    Philly:
    Specter - 55%
    Sestak - 45%

    Philly Suburbs:
    Specter - 58%
    Sestak - 42%

    Northeast Penn:
    Specter - 56%
    Sestak - 44%

    The result?

    Sestak - 49%
    Specter - 51%

    So, Specter could totally be spot-on about SE Penn delivering a squeaker.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


    [ Parent ]
    Maybe I'm missing something
    But isn't Sestak's base in the Philly suburbs? I know that Specter has done well there in his past elections, but is there anything else suggesting that Sestak is down double-digits on his home turf?

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    Sestak's "home turf" is in the Philly suburbs
    But he only represents Delaware County, with a little bit of eastern Chester County and southwestern Montgomery County. Which, at best, is about a third total of the Philly suburbs. Even so, this region, including Sestak's district, has been strong Specter territory from the start. He trumped both Joe Hoffell and Pat Toomey here by about 20% in '04.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    Philadelphia
    If Specter only wins by 55-45 in Philadelphia, he's not going to win.  It's where he came from, where he served before going to DC, and where he's a household name.  And he needs Philadelphia to be at least 20% of the turnout.

    [ Parent ]
    You don't need to do any math
    I don't know or care how Cillizza got his numbers, but all you have to do is check the FEC link I provided in the diary.

    See this line at the bottom:

    Calendar YTD Per Election for Office Sought = $937297.81

    Boom. All you need to know. Don't worry about Cillizza.


    [ Parent ]
    Thanks James - a follow-up
    How do you find these numbers? I search at http://www.fec.gov/finance/dis... and all I can find is numbers for the Critz and Burns campaigns, not the independent party expenditures that you cite.

    [ Parent ]
    I'm in Tampa
    and I have to say I love the media meme that is developing that lecherous Republicans chose Tampa for Convention 2012 because of its famous nudy bars.  

    http://politicalwire.com/archi...

    By the way, local smut king Joe Redner, who is quoted in the link above, has made several attempts at electoral politics.  In his latest, he actually pushed a City Council race to a runoff in a heavily Dem district.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    i also live in FLA
    joe redner is a big plus as far as community service(i persoanlly could care less about his private business)

    [ Parent ]
    aww how awful
    A bunch of rich people thought they were buying a Senator, and now they can't have their money back. My heart bleeds for them.

    26, male, Dem, NJ-12

    Not just rich people donate to campaigns.
    Charlie thumbing his nose at Republicans this week - with the non-refunds and the voter registration switch and the offshore drilling posturing - tells us a lot about his strategy.  He seems to be planning to supplant Meek as the de facto Democratic choice in the race, like Lieberman did with Schlesinger the Republican in 2006.  Will be tougher for Crist because Meek is much better funded than Schlesinger was and is supported by the party hierarchy.  But polling showing Crist winning a plurality of Democrats seems to suggest that's where Charlie's opening is.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    He's enjoying his freedom, though you're right about his strategy
    He seems to be enjoying the fact that he can be honest now instead of pretending to be uber-conservative on every issue. Well, he can be "honest" in whatever sense that means to a closeted, principle-less, say-anything empty suit/inveterate political hack. That said, it is fun to be able to think for yourself--everyone should try it!

    The St. Petersburg Times wrote that "even the relentlessly cheerful Crist seemed more relaxed and upbeat than ever. The newly registered nonpartisan candidate  also casually threw out a few morsels likely to cause more conservative heads to explode" ... including complimenting Elena Kagan, knocking Republicans for threatening campaign staffers who might want to work for him (and for being assholes, generally) as well as supporting the FairDistricts redistricting proposal and criticizing Republicans for trying to undercut it.

    http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz...

    Do not underestimate Charlie Crist. Folks like me make fun of him all the time for being closeted and orange and kinda ridiculous. But let's remember that he has won three statewide races against competent opponents, has tons of campaign cash, is smart and quick on his feet, has good political instincts (mostly) and has the very high-profile Governor's chair to keep him in the spotlight until the day of the race.

    Frankly, Meek is going to have to fight hard to keep a big chunk of Democrats from jumping ship. Fortunately, just as there's "The Hug" with Crist & Obama, there's also "The Wave" with Crist & Palin: http://www.peteykins.com/spark...

    Attention, Rep. Meek--follow Sestak's lead and make sure every Democrat in Florida sees that picture.

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


    [ Parent ]
    I would have been livid
    If I had given Parker Griffith money only to see him keep it when he bailed on the Democratic Party. This may be legal, but it seems like a pretty fair thing to get upset about.

    [ Parent ]
    Exactly
    Making fun of contributors for wanting their money back from Crist is below the belt, as far as I'm concerned. He ought to return all the money he's asked to return. He is a sleazeball, in my opinion.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    They should have realized the risks.
    If you're going to donate someone ideologically close to the other party, then you should realize the risk you run of them switching parties.

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    [ Parent ]
    What you're saying
    to me smacks of blaming the victim. I realize that's a little strong, but it's one thing to send money to a moderate Republican and another thing to support an independent campaign against the Republican Party.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  


    [ Parent ]
    PA-Sen: Sestak performs 3 pts better than Specter v. Toomey
    NY-Sen: Peter King endorses Bruce Blakeman
    WOW
    tell me i'm not dreaming..........

    [ Parent ]
    KOS
    posted a new poll out of arkansas that looks good for bill halter taking lincoln into a run-off

    FOR THE LOVE OF GOD!
    STOP WITH THE CAPS!

    *and yes, I am actually screaming, my caps are intentional!

    26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


    [ Parent ]
    They are going to ban you
    if you keep this caps lock thing up.  It's really silly.  Please for the love of God stop!  You're a perfectly good contributor otherwise.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]

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