Quinnipiac (5/5-10, likely voters, 4/28-5/2 in parens):
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 44 (47)
Joe Sestak (D): 42 (39)
Undecided: 14 (14)
Dan Onorato (D): 38 (36)
Jack Wagner (D): 11 (8)
Anthony Williams (D): 10 (8)
Joe Hoeffel (D): 9 (9)
Undecided: 32 (37)
(MoE: 3.2%)
Quinnipiac is the first pollster out of many polls to find that Arlen Specter has a lead in the Democratic Senate primary (hard to believe, even a month ago, that I'd be saying those words). They've switched to a likely voter model, with May 18 fast approaching, but the main difference over the last few weeks is that Joe Sestak hit the airwaves hard, which seemed to upend this race. They also take a look at the sleepy GOP primaries, finding Tom Corbett beating Sam Rohrer 57-14 on the gubernatorial side and Pat Toomey beating Peg Luksik 60-9. (Remember when I thought that the squishy-on-abortion Toomey might face some trouble against single-issue pro-lifer Luksik, who was more of a force back in the 1990s, in the primary? Well, looks like I was wrong on that one.)
Franklin & Marshall (5/3-9, registered voters except likely voters for Dem Senate primary, 3/15-21 in parens):
Joe Sestak (D): 38 (12)
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 36 (32)
Undecided: 25 (52)
(MoE: 7.9%)
Joe Sestak (D): 28 (19)
Pat Toomey (R): 29 (27)
Undecided: 43 (49)
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 33 (29)
Pat Toomey (R): 35 (33)
Undecided: 26 (32)
(MoE: 3.3%)
Dan Onorato (D): 27 (11)
Jack Wagner (D): 5 (7)
Anthony Williams (D): 5 (4)
Joe Hoeffel (D): 4 (5)
Undecided: 57 (71)
(MoE: 4.9%)
Franklin & Marshall switches back to their choose-your-own-adventure approach, offering a choice of LV or RV numbers in the Democratic primary for the Senate. What's happening in the Dem primary mirrors what they've previously found in the general: that Specter wins among all registered voters, but loses among those actually likely to vote. Among RVs, Specter leads Sestak 38-29. (Note the huge margin of error on their Dem LV sample. The RV sample, which was the only way Governor primary numbers were reported, is down in the normal range, though.) F&M's numbers on the GOP primaries are Corbett 29, Rohrer 10, and Toomey 28, Luksik 1. (Yep, definitely not happening for Luksik this year.) They also include general election numbers, which show tightening vs. Toomey as the Dems are moving to front-of-mind thanks to their ad deluges.
Muhlenberg College for Allentown Morning Call (pdf) (5/8-11, likely voters, 5/7-10 in parentheses):
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 45 (43)
Joe Sestak (D): 45 (47)
Undecided: 9 (10)
Dan Onorato (D): 37 (33)
Anthony Williams (D): 15 (15)
Jack Wagner (D): 9 (9)
Joe Hoeffel (D): 8 (10)
Undecided: 30 (34)
(MoE: ±5%)
Finally, is there some Arlen-mentum in the daily Muhlenberg tracker? After Sestak peaking with a 5-point lead, now the duo are back to a tie today. Taking all the data together, I don't think you can call this anything but the deadest of dead heats. |
