PA-Sen, PA-Gov: Specter and Sestak Neck and Neck

Quinnipiac (5/5-10, likely voters, 4/28-5/2 in parens):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 44 (47)

Joe Sestak (D): 42 (39)

Undecided: 14 (14)

Dan Onorato (D): 38 (36)

Jack Wagner (D): 11 (8)

Anthony Williams (D): 10 (8)

Joe Hoeffel (D): 9 (9)

Undecided: 32 (37)

(MoE: 3.2%)

Quinnipiac is the first pollster out of many polls to find that Arlen Specter has a lead in the Democratic Senate primary (hard to believe, even a month ago, that I’d be saying those words). They’ve switched to a likely voter model, with May 18 fast approaching, but the main difference over the last few weeks is that Joe Sestak hit the airwaves hard, which seemed to upend this race. They also take a look at the sleepy GOP primaries, finding Tom Corbett beating Sam Rohrer 57-14 on the gubernatorial side and Pat Toomey beating Peg Luksik 60-9. (Remember when I thought that the squishy-on-abortion Toomey might face some trouble against single-issue pro-lifer Luksik, who was more of a force back in the 1990s, in the primary? Well, looks like I was wrong on that one.)

Franklin & Marshall (5/3-9, registered voters except likely voters for Dem Senate primary, 3/15-21 in parens):

Joe Sestak (D): 38 (12)

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 36 (32)

Undecided: 25 (52)

(MoE: 7.9%)

Joe Sestak (D): 28 (19)

Pat Toomey (R): 29 (27)

Undecided: 43 (49)

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 33 (29)

Pat Toomey (R): 35 (33)

Undecided: 26 (32)

(MoE: 3.3%)

Dan Onorato (D): 27 (11)

Jack Wagner (D): 5 (7)

Anthony Williams (D): 5 (4)

Joe Hoeffel (D): 4 (5)

Undecided: 57 (71)

(MoE: 4.9%)

Franklin & Marshall switches back to their choose-your-own-adventure approach, offering a choice of LV or RV numbers in the Democratic primary for the Senate. What’s happening in the Dem primary mirrors what they’ve previously found in the general: that Specter wins among all registered voters, but loses among those actually likely to vote. Among RVs, Specter leads Sestak 38-29. (Note the huge margin of error on their Dem LV sample. The RV sample, which was the only way Governor primary numbers were reported, is down in the normal range, though.) F&M’s numbers on the GOP primaries are Corbett 29, Rohrer 10, and Toomey 28, Luksik 1. (Yep, definitely not happening for Luksik this year.) They also include general election numbers, which show tightening vs. Toomey as the Dems are moving to front-of-mind thanks to their ad deluges.

Muhlenberg College for Allentown Morning Call (pdf) (5/8-11, likely voters, 5/7-10 in parentheses):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 45 (43)

Joe Sestak (D): 45 (47)

Undecided: 9 (10)

Dan Onorato (D): 37 (33)

Anthony Williams (D): 15 (15)

Jack Wagner (D): 9 (9)

Joe Hoeffel (D): 8 (10)

Undecided: 30 (34)

(MoE: ±5%)

Finally, is there some Arlen-mentum in the daily Muhlenberg tracker? After Sestak peaking with a 5-point lead, now the duo are back to a tie today. Taking all the data together, I don’t think you can call this anything but the deadest of dead heats.

37 thoughts on “PA-Sen, PA-Gov: Specter and Sestak Neck and Neck”

  1. It will be quite an Irony for Spectar, who feared losing the GOP primary and Jumped to the Dems, to lose to Sestak in the Dem primary and have his career end regardless.

    If I lived in PA I would be voting for Sestak. Spectar didn’t join the Dems for ideological reasons, it was to try to save his job, and Sestak could keep the PA Senate race close, while Spectar would almost certainly lose to Toomey.

    Anyone is free to disagree with me.

  2.   I am usually of fan of liberal candidates from my home city, but Williams breaks the mold.  He is a one issue candidate in favor of charter schools and funded almost entirely my millionaires in and out of state.  Anyone but him.

  4. From Greg Sargent:  Why Sestak might really pull it off

    Terry Madonna, the director of the Franklin & Marshall poll, just gave me an interesting overview of the race, explaining in a nutshell why Sestak could prevail, though he cautioned that a Specter win is still a very real possibility.

    Madonna’s take: Dem primary voters haven’t voted for Specter for decades. Why would they start now? …

    “If they hadn’t agreed to vote for Specter after 29 years, why are they going to change in a month?” Madonna asks, in a reference to Specter’s long career as a Republican in the Senate.

  6. Oh, please, please, please let it be next Tuesday – what a big difference that we be over the other three candidates

  9. Disclaimer: I do mildly support Specter.

    Now, I don’t mind people supporting Sestak, but what’s with all the badmouthing of Specter?

    Especially in the case of SenateGuru, I’d rather he not endorsed either.  I’m somewhat peeved that he endorsed Sestak and badmouthed Specter like various others in the netroots.

    I haven’t found a similar level of bashing Sestak from Specter supporters.

  11. he may find that more than one candidate can run negative ads.  the logic that a majority of late-deciders support the challenger is fair, but it’s possible that we are right now seeing the effect of a barrage of negative advertising by sestak.  the strategy for the incumbent in these situations is to shake people’s faith in the challenger and there is still time and money to do it.

  12. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com…

    At least that’s the way I interpret this excerpt:

    Specter is not going to win very many votes among Republicans, the party which he deserted last year. Independents view him negatively: 30-58, in the Quinnipiac poll. The only way he’s going to win (and it’s a necessary rather than sufficient condition) is with monstrous, enthusiastic Democratic support.

    So if that support is there, let’s see it. Let’s see him beat Joe Sestak, who is not an overwhelmingly brilliant candidate. Let’s see if he can clear that hurdle. Democrats have benefited from his flip-flops — in a clear and tangible way. If they’re not going to get his back, then who do you think will?

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