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SSP Daily Digest: 5/12 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Wed May 12, 2010 at 8:08 AM EDT


  • CA-Gov: This video (the second one on the page) is a couple of months old but is worth watching if you haven't seen it yet. I think it goes a ways toward explaining Meg Whitman's glass jaw. It's a local news piece detailing an ugly snub of the media by Whitman at a campaign stop she specifically invited the press to - and it's about as harshly negative as a straight news piece can be. When ordinary people imagine rich douchebags behaving douchily, this is what we envision.

  • KY-Sen: Republican muckety-muck Cathy Bailey, who almost ran in this race herself, endorsed Rand Paul, while the U.S. Chamber of Commerce endorse Trey Grayson. They must love fiat currency.

  • PA-Sen, PA-07: Joe Sestak just endorsed Bryan Lentz to succeed him in PA-07... but Lentz faces zero primary opposition. The real news is that Lentz in turn endorsed Sestak, which may help him snare an extra vote or two in the Philly burbs.

  • UT-Sen: Is Orrin Hatch setting himself up to be Bob Bennett 2.0? He said that the teabaggers "don't have an open mind and they won't listen."

  • FL-Gov: Rick Scott loves his chocolate milk: The uber-wealthy gubernatorial candidate (who has been flooding the Florida airwaves) opposes a Charlie Crist-backed amendment to the state constitution which would ban offshore drilling. It's interesting to see how this is playing among conservative circles, where even Bill McCollum largely supports Crist's idea. On the flipside, both Scott and McCollum luv Arizona's new immigration law.

  • MA-04: Consultant and Marine vet Sean Bielat announced that he will challenge Rep. Barney Frank as a Republican.

  • MI-13: Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick may survive yet another primary. She narrowly escaped last cycle thanks to a split field again, and may yet do so again. Four opponents filed against her, including state Sen. Hansen Clarke.

  • NY-23: Keep the cat fud a-comin': Conservative Party chair (and newfound progressive hero) Mike Long sent out a memo to North Country GOP leaders explicitly comparing Matt Doheny to Dede Scozzafava and pleding to stick with Doug Hoffman. Long points out that Doheney (who sought his party's nomination last year) maxed out to Dede after she got the nod, and also said, "I'm going to do everything I can for her, and more." If Doheny wins the Republican primary, it could be Hoffman's turn to play spoiler on the Conservative line. History is definitely starting to rhyme.

  • OH-18: There were fat ladies... all around... but he never heard them singing.... State Sen. Bob Gibbs "declared victory" over a disgruntled Fred Dailey, even though official results have not yet been declared. Dailey called the move presumptuous and said the fat lady ain't sung. The Secretary of State doesn't have to certify results until 20 days after the election, and then, since the margin of victory was less than half a percent, we could see a recount - which might take until June. You know Zack Space is doing a happy dance.

  • PA-12: Big Dog coming to town: Bill Clinton is coming to Johnstown on May 16th to do a rally for Dem Mark Critz.

  • PA-17 (PDF): Susquehanna Polling & Research (5/7-8, likely voters, no trendlines):

    • Tim Holden (D-inc): 54
    Sheila Dow-Ford (D): 27
    Undecided: 18
    (MoE: ±4.9%)

    David Argall (R): 21
    Frank Ryan (R): 17
    John First (R): 7
    Allen Griffth (R): 5
    Undecided: 47
    (MoE: ±4.3%)

    While Dow-Ford probably can't unseat Holden, these are some uninspiring numbers for the incumbent, who only gets 38% re-elects. Obama's job approval is 32-56.

  • SD-AL: Chris Nelson, South Dakota's Republican Secretary of State who is hoping to take on Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, is at least birther-curious, claiming that "many people" contacted him as SoS "asking how Obama could be on our ballot given this controversy." Nelson's primary opponents (who were asked the same question) didn't take the bait, so you gotta wonder if Nelson is trying to out-teabag them.

  • NY State Sen.: Among his many un-endearing habits, Mike Bloomberg has long used his zillions to prop up Republicans in the state Senate. However, Bloombo flack Howard Wolfson is now hinting that this tradition may come to an end. His Bloombleness has already endorsed Dem Craig Johnson of Long Island.

  • NRSC: Michael DuHaime, a top strategist for Chris Christie's gubernatorial campaign (and before that, political director for John McCain's presidential bid), is being tapped by the NRSC to head up their independent expenditure arm this year.
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    DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 5/12 (Morning Edition)
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    SSP Daily Digest: 5/12 (Morning Edition) | 90 comments
    UT-Sen
    Hatch will probably retire. He's going to be 78 in 2012 and seems to realize that his electoral goose is cooked if he runs again. Hatch may have been a tremendous jackass over the years, but he's not an idiot. He probably wouldn't be going Ted Stevens on the teabaggers now unless he wasn't planning on running again.

    All things considered, if we strike Hatch and all of the other rumored/likely retirements (Lugar, Akaka, Kohl, and maybe Byrd), the Senate in 2013 will be a much younger place, for better or for worse.  

    He sounded very open to Kagan...
    I think if he votes for her confirmation, he's probably retiring...
    [ Parent ]
    I believe it when I see it
    Espically after Obama nominated her, he gave out a statement saying he has to review it since his vote for her for SG is much different then voting for her to the SCOTUS. If he does I could agree with you that he'll retire.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
    [ Parent ]
    He could still run as an Indy
    Still caucus with the GOP, be just as conservative, but still free to work with us whenever he wants because he recognizes how things actually get done in the Senate.
    [ Parent ]
    The question is
    Do you really think he will do that. My guess ia no since Hatch has been in office for decades and saw alot and after what he saw happen to Bob Bennett, he probally thinks after his term is up will hang it up since he probally dosen't want to go through the BS Bennett went through...and it was BS.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
    [ Parent ]
    Hatch.
    This is a geat point. I'll bet that's a good possibility.
    That teabagger dissing quote might be setting up that scenario. Hatch could say: my UT GOP has been hijacked by a couple thousand zealot teabaggers, so I'm running around them.
    I'm sure he'd rather not retire if he had the option.
    [ Parent ]
    IDK
    It would be a very drastic change very late into his career. I'd say he will probably retire. Although I didn't think Specter would jump ship either, so you really never know.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    Jason Chaffetz
    The UT-03 Rep., who the hard right really likes, will probably run for and win this seat in 2012 regardless of what Hatch does. He's not even making an attempt to hide his intentions http://www.deseretnews.com/art...

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    Shit man...
    Chaffetz wasn't even in the House one term and there was talks about him challenging Bennett, there's no question Chaffetz is a very ambitious man who's goal is to be a Senator and used the House as a stepping stone just like what Bobby Jindal did in Louisiana. After he lost the '03 Governor's race, Jindal ran for David Vitter's open seat and won and used Congress as a stepping stone to be Governor and to stay in the public eye. You know the rest.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
    [ Parent ]
    Joe Leiberman & Ben Nelson

    Maybe even Bill Nelson.

    Bob Byrd is also up again in '12.  He's just trying to make it there, I'm sure...but somehow no one can quite imagine the Senate without him present, or him doing anything else.

    [ Parent ]
    He's just trying to make it there, I'm sure...but somehow no one can quite imagine the Senate without him present, or him doing anything else
    I know I can't. Robert Byrd has been in the Senate since the late 50's and in politics for most of his adult life. Lots of Senators have come and gone in that time but Byrd and even Strom Thurmond as well when he was in office (and alive) have remained framiliar faces in the upper chamber.

    It's hard to see Byrd doing anything else because politics is all he knows. I see Byrd dying in office rather than retiring because 1. his wife died five years ago and being in the Senate around people is better than retiring to a empty house in a small town outside of Beckley and 2. politics is all Byrd knows what to do and he's good at it. Believe me the day Byrd dies, it will be a end of an era just like it was when Ted Kennedy past.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    yes

    Maybe most touching part of Ted Kennedy's funeral to me was that stop of the hearse at Capitol Hill, with Byrd in tears.

    I remember watching the funeral for most of that day.  It played out like an Ascension, with Bob Byrd playing the role of God among the other Congressmen and staffers the welcoming angels in Heaven, i.e. on Capitol Hill.

    Byrd is truly the last of an era, he's keenly aware of it.  Ted dying was the end of the last embodiment of the glory and transformations in American life of the JFK/LBJ times.  With Bob Byrd the living memory of that in the political elite class will come to an end.

    [ Parent ]
    Well, there's still Inouye.
    But he's way less of a personality than Byrd, and he probably won't outlast him by much.
    [ Parent ]
    WV-1
    I'm sorry if I sound rude but the more I read about the guy that defeated Allan Mollohan Mike Oliverio, the more I think we just elected a future party switcher. I went to his website last night and read how anti-government he is and went to his wikipedia page and it scared the crap out of me, particularly this gem on how elections are decided by God:

    A Catholic, Oliverio says that it is God's will whether or not he wins election.[17][15] He told the Times West Virginian: "We start every campaign by putting it in God's hands. And we know that his will shall be done. And if it is his will for us to win, we will win. And if not, he has a higher and better purpose for me somewhere else.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M...

    Beautiful, just beautiful.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    Wouldn't surprise me.


    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
    [ Parent ]
    Is he just another ...
    one of those "Southern" Dems that never changed their party registration when all the other Dixiecrats did?  Because there is obviously still some of those left(Blue Dogs in the South)
    [ Parent ]
    Well he can't be a Southern Democrat
    Since he's not from the south, but judging by his views and opinions he sure sounds like a Dixiecrat and a guy if elected to Congress won't think twice by switching parties.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
    [ Parent ]
    Remember Bob Byrd's history
    As a young'un, he was a member of the Klan.

    Historically, when the Civil War started, WV was part of the Confederacy, as part of the state of VA. They did immediately work to secede from VA, but didn't technically rejoin the Union until 1863.

    So it's fair to think of WV as like eastern KY, with SW PA (aka Murtha's district) and some DC exurbs thrown in.

    However, I don't think there's much of a history of WV Ds switching parties -

    If there were, I think Jay would have entered WV politics in the late 60s as an R - like Winthrop in AR.

    So if Olivero switches, I do think it would be an anamoly - but given the history of the area in a meta sense, not a huge one.

    [ Parent ]
    Your right on all that
    I guess you can think of WV like east Kentucky, it espically has the looks and political opinions of it. I can't think of and D's from WV switching parties but given Oliverio's views it dosen't shock me in the future to do it or has the voting record of a Dan Boren if he remains a Dem.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
    [ Parent ]
    It's probably time to redefine the South anyway
    Ive always considered KY and WV Southern.  And MD and DE are Northeastern.

    MO is my I dunno one, great arguments for both on sides.

    [ Parent ]
    That's fair
    But I always considered MO part of the midwest.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
    [ Parent ]
    Where then?
    West Virginia doesn't fit very well into any geographical group but the south fits better than anywhere else.  It certainly is not part of the northeast.  Being south of the Ohio river takes out the Midwest.

    I include WV as part of the south on my breakdowns (along with the 11 states of the Confederacy and Kentucky).  In some ways, the best comparisons are with western NC and eastern TN.  WV was the part of VA that seceded from VA during the Civil War and stayed Republican until FDR.  It was legal slave holding territory but there were few slaves and there are few blacks  percentage-wise in the state.  Then it stayed Democratic until the NRA spent a ton of money in 2000 and converted the state at the Presidential level.

    The Washington exurbs are starting to creep into the eastern panhandle.  The northern panhandle is part of the rust belt.  The Charleston area has factories.  The coal mines are in the south.  Part of the east is about as wild and scenic and mountainous as anything east of the Rockies.  The Shenandoah is a garden compared to it.  

    [ Parent ]
    WV is mixed
    I would say WV-01 is in the north and WV-02 and 03 are in the south. Northern WV is comparable to SW PA (minus Pittsburgh) and SE Ohio. All of Appalachia (north and south) is trending Republican. Most of the Dem seats in Congress in this region could be lost in the next 10 years, and the Dems will just have to make those seats up elsewhere (northern & western suburbs).

    26, male, Dem, NJ-12
    [ Parent ]
    My analysis
    is that he's only a Dem because Democrats control the government in West Virginia. Being a Republican in West Virginia is an exercise in futility.
    [ Parent ]
    I've made that prediction
    The only indication why he may not is that he apparently has a good rating from labor groups.
    [ Parent ]
    Good Point.
    But that dosen't mean squat if labor issues isn't brought up in Congress and on every other issue he'll vote like a Republican.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
    [ Parent ]
    He did vote to add "sexual orientation" to anti-discrimination laws
    ref http://www.votesmart.org/votin...

    as well as for non-participation in the so-called REAL ID act.

    So that is at least two significant progressive votes on civil liberties issues.

    [ Parent ]
    Good to know
    Glad you brought that up.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
    [ Parent ]
    He Also Sponsored
    The amendment to add a ban on gay marriage to the WV constitution. His empathy for gay West Virginians is tepid at best.
    [ Parent ]
    That dosen't shock me one bit
    Given Oliverio is strongly conservative on social issues.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
    [ Parent ]
    Source please
    Wikipedia suggests you're right, but it's referenced source (PDF) http://www.familypolicywv.com/...

    only indirectly implies Olivero's support of such.

    [ Parent ]
    I Don't Have the Bill Number in Front of Me
    But he did. I suppose it's somewhere in the WV Legislature site (though that's not especially easy to use). And personally I have my doubts that he'd have voted for gay and lesbian protections under ENDA if the WV Senate hadn't previously passed it, or if the vote had been close. Btw, such protections have never become law in WV as the House Rules Committee has refused to bring them up for a vote.
    [ Parent ]
    While my instinct is to believe it
    I can't even find any direct statements of Olivero w/r/t a constitutional ban. And in his favor, he did vote to include "sexual orientation" as one of the definitions of discrimination. So for me, it has to stay in the "just a rumor" basket.

    I suspect Olivero won't come out to deny those rumors either.

    If it were Olivero in an open WV district, I think we'd have people here saying that's the price of electibility, in a district that I assume is trending R. And I would probably be among them.

    [ Parent ]
    imo
    He doesn't sound much more significantly to the right than say, Brad Ellsworth.  

    Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
    [ Parent ]
    Again, Not a Rumor
    It was Senate Joint Resolution 14, introduced in February 2010.

    And there are plenty of often conservative and pro-life Democrats who aren't blatantly using attacks on gay Americans for their own political gain.  

    [ Parent ]
    Thank you
    http://www.legis.state.wv.us/B...

    SPONSOR(S):
    Helmick, Oliverio, Prezioso, Deem, Boley, Jenkins, Green, Hall, Sypolt, K. Facemyer, Guills, Yost, Chafin, Plymale,

    While Wikipedia is often an excellent place to start, it is not enough.

    [ Parent ]
    yup

    Nicky Rahall doesn't look like a cinch for reelection, either.

    I've tried to make sense of West Virginia before but it's difficult.  The major political boundary seems to be the fuzzy cultural divide between northern and southern Appalachia that runs through it.

    My best shot at it is that the Potomac drainage region of the state- essentially the eastern panhandle- is marginally  northern Appalachian.  The Kanawha drainage and everything to its southeast and southwest are southern Appalachian.  Support for the Religious Right is sort of a marker that distinguishes north from south, and the Religious Right has a strong presence in Charleston.  They're the people who have kept Shelly Moore Capito in office.

    Which leaves the central northern counties and northern panhandle, which just happen to be Mollohan's now-former district.  I suppose as a region it's culturally and mostly politically continuous with southwestern Pennsylvania- i.e. marginally northern Appalachian.

    Southern Appalachia seems to be trending into Republican hands fast, from northern Alabama and Parker Griffith to Rick Boucher's district in southwestern Virginia and Nick Rahall's next door.  That's the small town Southern thing of consolidating around religion and conservative cultural politics, i.e. to the Republican Party, in the face of strong social and economic change.

    Northern Appalachia seems to be doing the conservative D to Republican voting shift that comes with that transition as well.  In the southern parts, anyway.

    We're seeing the next step, though, further north- a north-to-south trend in northern Appalachia of moderate/liberal Democrats replacing Republicans as districts complete the transition and recover somewhat.  Over the past 10-12 years moderate or liberal Democrats have won the second House district in Maine, both House districts in New Hampshire, the hill/mountain districts of Massachusetts, the Vermont House seat, most recently the New York House districts along the Hudson and representing the Adirondacks and Catskills (which are not entirely secured, but close).  The northern front lines are now in places like Arcuri's seat in Utica, Maffei in Syracuse (who is just about safe now, though), some jitters recently for Hinchey, and the economic hellhole Corning/Susquehanna country seat briefly held by Massa.  On the east side of the mountains, the fight's on in Carney's and Kanjorski's seats in northeastern Pennsylvania, Dent's seat nearby, Scott Garrett's slowly eroding margins across the Delaware in NJ hillbilly country.  And those Philly suburban/exurban seats.  On the west side of the northern Appalachians Higgins recently snagged the Buffalo seat, leaving Chris Lee nearly surrounded.  A little further south the trenches are running though Dahlkemper's and Altmire's seats, LaTourette's on the Ohio side (eventually/soon) and a bit more mopup in the Youngstown seat i.e. Ryan's involving the likes of Traficant reappearing.

    Even your classical northern Appalachian Republican seat, Glenn Thompson's tenth district in northern central Pennsylvania, elected him with but 57% in '08.  That had a fair amount to do with Obama and the PSU students in State College, I'm sure.  But it leads me to wonder whether even the safest district they can give him this redistricting won't be dicey five or eight years down the road.

    [ Parent ]
    Rahall
    Nicky Rahall doesn't look like a cinch for reelection, either.

    Here's why he is.  Votes from last night:

    Rahall (D) - 44,544
    Barilla (D) - 21,453
    All 4 Republicans Combined - 16,605

    If you add up everyone who voted Republican AND who voted against Rahall in the primary, you get 38,058 - still more than 6,000 fewer votes than Rahall.  That would make for a 54-46 split, which I would consider the very best the Republicans could possibly do.  They will probably do much worse, as many of the "Barilla Democrats" will likely stick with Rahall if he runs a decent campaign.

    Not to mention a huge cash advantage and an opponent with strong, unseemly ties to Massey Energy.


    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    The Eastern Panhandle is basically an exurb of Washington DC now
    It's the one part of the state where population is growing; everywhere else, the population is stagnant or in decline.
    [ Parent ]
    I like your analysis
    I agree that Upstate NY followed New England, and northern PA will be next. I could see Obama winning Pike County, PA in 2012.

    26, male, Dem, NJ-12
    [ Parent ]
    That's pretty much a foregone conclusion.
    Either we get this guy elected and he pulls a Parker Griffith six months (or five minutes) later, or the Republican gets elected outright. I didn't care for Mollohan mainly because his ethical woes and leadership position tarnished the party as a whole, but he was the only thing keeping that seat in the D column. Given WV's hard tilt to the GOP in 2008, I doubt we get it back again anytime soon.  
    [ Parent ]
    Hard tilt?
    it gave McCain an 11 point margin, but technically Obama improved by .5 percentage points there despite literally making no effort to contest the state in either his campaigning or in actual advertising.  
    [ Parent ]
    That kind of statement of belief
    does not a Republican make. I could easily see Bobby Bright - or, going back a ways, Jimmy Carter - making that statement.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  
    [ Parent ]
    Is the first item CA-SEN or CA-GOV?
    n/t
    CA-GOV


    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
    [ Parent ]
    ID-01 - Teabagger-endorsed Minnick up big
    http://www.spokesman.com/blogs...

    Minnick 50, Generic R 20 - To boot, the bulk of the undecideds are apparently in a part of the district where Minnick performs best.

    Vaughn Ward up 34-16 on State Rep. Raul Labrador, with 50% undecided in the primary.

    The poll was by local pollster Greg Smith & Associates, which appears to be non-partisan based on my cursory review.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    OK big bucket of cold water over this.
    http://right-mind.us/blogs/blo...

    Greg Smith & Associates was just a wee bit off on this race in 2008, finding Bill Sali up 51-39 a month before election day.  Final result was 51-49 Minnick, and IIRC other pollsters had Minnick up more than that going into election day.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    Yeah, this doesn't sound right
    I've got a hunch Minnick may be another Bobby Bright in that he may have a much better shot at reelection than has been assumed. That said, 50 to 20? Not terribly likely.  

    Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
    [ Parent ]
    How big was Bright up?
    50-25? 50-30?  

    28, Liberal Democrat, CA-26
    [ Parent ]
    54-30 over Roby n/t


    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    Maybe this poll is bunk
    But pretty much everything I've read about Minnick suggests that his favorables are actually pretty good, and that he is fairly well liked in ID-1.  I'm starting to think that despite the environment and the crazy R+ lean of the district that he might have a good chance of survival.  Him and Bobby Bright in particular have been voting very, very conservatively this Congress, so maybe that is endearing them to their electorate.

    It's something to consider as my May House Prediction update should be coming around week's end.  

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    [ Parent ]
    PA-Sen: Quinnipiac finds Specter with the slight lead
    They tend to be the most accurate
    PA pollsters. Plus look for Specter to outperform his polling average, as the establishment candidate.  
    [ Parent ]
    Is there a good way to phone bank for Critz from out of state?
    Preferably from my house instead of phone bank parties or things like that.  I have some time free and it looks like we still have a shot here.

    21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


    The DCCC usually gets online phone banks up
    Check their website.  And when is even the election?  If it's right around the corner (which I fear it is), it should be up by now.
    [ Parent ]
    "And when is even the election"
    May 18, same day as the PA Primary.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
    [ Parent ]
    It's not up yet
    They ask for volunteers in the area but nothing for long distance volunteering yet.  Hope they do soon.

    21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


    [ Parent ]
    NY-Sen/15: Tasini drops Senate bid, will challenge Rangel instead
    Tasini or Rangel, which is worse?
    Seriously, there already are primary challengers, and Tasini joining in could split the anti-Rangel vote. Rangel could pull a Dan Burton and squeak through because of too many primary challengers.

    26, male, Dem, NJ-12
    [ Parent ]
    With Tasini
    There would be one white candidate against, what, four black candidates in a district only 31% black.
    [ Parent ]
    Good luck with that....
    Wow. I can't believe someone who polls as badly as Gillibrand is going to get a complete pass.

    Tasini has no chance in NY-15 and will only serve to split the anti-Rangel vote in the Dem primary.

    While he had no chance of beating Gillibrand, I wouldn't have been surprised to see him get a huge share of a protest vote against her.

    She seems to be the luckiest poll in the World. She is very unpopular, New Yorkers have not taken a liking to her, she is running in what is turning out to be the Mother of all Anti-Incumbent years and she has the stench of being David Patterson's hand picked person and yet no one will shot at her.

    It's really mindboggling.

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    [ Parent ]
    I really like her,
    and I don't know where you're coming from, but her favorables in polling have been pretty good. Problem has been weak name recognition for her in the NYC area but she's in the process of working that out.

    The other thing is she has the right connections; she is a protege of Chuck Schumer after all, and she is a scary good campaigner and fundraiser who has made the right decisions insofar as adjusting her voting record to represent the state's lean. Plus her pick has been highly popular upstate and in the Hudson River Valley, areas the state party is trying to continue making inroads into. It'd be a silly, pointless act to primary her anyway, and come the the general she's going to smack the Republican nominee by about 30 percentage points or so.  

    [ Parent ]
    Just stating facts...
    The Marist poll that came out Tuesday shows only 27% of New Yorkers think she is doing a good job.

    Here is the link:
    http://maristpoll.marist.edu/5...

    Only 2% of responds thought she was doing an excellent job! Only 34% of Democrats say Gillibrand is doing either an excellent or good job in office.

    Over 51% of total voters think she is doing poor or average job. Ans 22% had no opinion of here.

    These are really abysmal numbers for an incumbent (even an appointed one). Her only saving grace is that she really has no one of consquence running against her.

    If any one of any stature decided to challanger her I think she would have been in real trouble.  

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    [ Parent ]
    misleading poll
    most polls should be approve/disapprove. The four choices include "fair" which could be either. She is a monster fundraiser so she was able to scare off most primary challengers (with an assist from the White House and Schumer).  
    [ Parent ]
    as the word is defined, it makes no sense
    From M-W.com

    6 a : marked by impartiality and honesty : free from self-interest, prejudice, or favoritism

    It really just means, I don't care, she's whatever.  So it should be more like an undecided or other factor vs a positive or negative factor.

    [ Parent ]
    I'd love to see how Schumer polls
    Schumer would win with abotu 80% of the vote but I bet he wouldn't poll all that well right now.

    You know, that anti-incumbent mood you hear about every 5 posts on this site.

    [ Parent ]
    Same poll that put Gillibrand at 27% put Schumer at 50%
    When Marist polled Gillibrand they also polled Schumer. 14% said Schumer was doing an excellent job and 36% say he is doing a good job. As I stated above Gillibrand was a 2%/25% split. For Schumer 28% reported he was doing fairly well, and 17% believed he was doing poorly.  4% were unsure.
    Link is here:
    http://maristpoll.marist.edu/5...

    When you compare the Schumer poll to Gillibrand you cna see how vulernable she is in comparsion. The irony is in most other states local polls would be jumping all over the chance to take her down. Yet in New York no one of any consquence is bothering.

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    [ Parent ]
    Gilly still has one primary challenger, albeit a no-namer
    Scott Noren, an Ithaca doctor. He's running to Gillibrand's right.

    http://www.norenforsenate.com/

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    CA-36, CA-Lt. Gov: Harman and Newsom with big primary leads
    http://calitics.com/diary/1166...

    In a poll conducted for the Garman campaign she leads Winograd 58-17.  Harman also posts 64-18 favorables, versus Winograd's 20-6.  

    http://calitics.com/diary/1166...

    A Tulchin poll (which appears to have been conducted independently) shows San Francisco Mayor Newsom with a big statewide lead, beating LA City Councilwoman Janice Hahn 47-26.  

    21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


    Obviously the first line should have read "In a poll conducted for the Harman campaign


    21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


    [ Parent ]
    Still gonna vote for Hahn...
    ...even though I have the sneaking suspicion that this Lt. Gov. run is a setup for an LA mayoral push in three years.
    [ Parent ]
    PA-12, Rankings
    Charlie Cook has PA-12 has "Lean GOP."

    Question: Should Critz (D) defeat Burns (R) next week in the special, would this cause Cook and other political prognosticators to re-evaluate their ranking systems? I'm not talking the Politico or the talking heads, but people like Cook who are supposed to know what they are talking about.

    26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

    The learned prognosticators
    The learned prognosticators such as Mr. Cook believe the electorate is naturally conservative, so no I don't they would change their rating systems.

    They would probably just say the Dems had the better hustle...

    [ Parent ]
    WA-GOV
    Taegan is running the possibility of Gregoire for Kagan's position.

    If Gregoire's confirmed before Oct. 3, there would have to be a special for the final two years of her term.

    What's the political game here? Stall the confirmation, or do the special?

    NV-Sen, Reid now leading?!
    Per MyDD, this is from a D firm, nevertheless... http://www.examiner.com/x-3489...

       *  Harry Reid 42% (D)
       * Sue Lowden 35% (R)
       * Scott Ashjian 3% (T)
       * Tim Fasano 5% (IAP)
       * None of these 8%
       * Undecided 8%

       * Harry Reid 37% (D)
       * Danny Tarkanian 37% (R)
       * Scott Ashjian 2% (T)
       * Tim Fasano 7% (IAP)
       * None of these 4%
       * Undecided 11%

    Rory's still polling behind Sandoval, 41-46.

    are the chickens coming home to roost for Sue Lowden
    or being bartered for some health care?
    I think this is a case where "none of the above" will help Reid. That is why I am not going to discount any incumbent Senator until he or she loses the general. Lincoln still has a shot to bounce back.  
    [ Parent ]
    "none of these candidates" is a ballot choice in NV.
    There might be as many anti-Lowden voters picking that as anti-Reid. (assuming Lowden is the R candidate)
    [ Parent ]
    I don't believe IAP (whatever that is) will get 7%
    count those as anti-Reid Republican votes

    26, male, Dem, NJ-12
    [ Parent ]
    IAP = Independent American Party; their version of the Constitution Party.


    My blog
    Twitter
    Scribd
    28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
    [ Parent ]
    maybe when the Big Dog is in PA
    Specter will brag about how he voted against convicting Clinton in 1999. If I were running his campaign I would want to get that message out there to Democrats.

    Does Sestak have any ground game? That's a concern I have if the PA State Democratic Party machinery is kicking in for Specter.

    You're so right about the PA Dem/Rendell/Philly machine
    Specter was actually just on Hardball, saying he'd pull out a squeaker b/c of turnout in the Philly area.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
    [ Parent ]
    I could see that...
    I think you will see the polls trend towards Specter the next week or so as the Philly machine gets into action.  

    I guess if Specter holds true to Dem principles the next 6 years, I don't really care if its Sestak or Specter.  I've never really fully understood the Philly political machine, but why they are getting in gear for Specter is beyond me.  I mean I understand the politics for those in the machine.  But why would Dem voters in Philly that are targets of the machine support Specter?  Its a shame Sestak couldn't have gotten endorsements from unions earlier on in the process to cememnt himself.

    (Today's political ad count for me: 0 robocalls, 1 mail ad for Williams for governor, 1 mail ad for Specter citing endorsement from my state senator who I must admit I forgot existed).

    [ Parent ]
    Why should Democrats in Philly
    who have not voted for Specter all these years be motivated to vote for him now? Specter lost Philly to Hoeffel by 43% in 2004. I am not at all convinced people in the City will be motivated to vote for him. Rendell better have some serious walking money to generate the turnout.
    Specter also just thanked Allegheny "Republicans" for their endorsement twice last night when talking to the County Democratic Committee. The man really doesn't know where he stands except for himself.  
    [ Parent ]
    I care because
    I think Toomey has a much better chance against Specter.
    [ Parent ]
    Actually maybe not.
    this is just another example of what a weaselly person he is since he didn't have the character to say either guilty or not guilty. Wiki:
    Specter cited Scots law to render a verdict of "not proven"

    [ Parent ]
    good point
    That's weasel wording for sure.
    [ Parent ]
    Paterson called a special election in NY-29
    ...For November 2nd! What a fuck up. He is calling an election for someone to serve...2 months! Why not make it the day of the primary? http://rocnow.com/article/loca...
    To disadvantage you all more probably
    The Dems probably want to start keeping their House losses confined to the actual general election date; no more interim losses considering how bad HI-1 turned out and how PA-12 is an unexpected seat for us to defend in an area moving away from us.
    [ Parent ]
    Asking why Patterson does something...
    is like asking why Vin Diesel still gets acting roles.

    Patterson has really tried to be thw worst governor in history of the world.  He almost succeeded but so many other politicians have been awful recently (Sanford as gov, Coakley as Senate candidate, Massa as COngressman, Craig as Senator), I don't even think its possible to do all-time rankings any more.

    [ Parent ]
    WA-Sen, Gov
    What affect could Christine Gregoire being confirmed and appointed as Solicitor General before Oct. 3 have on the Sen and gov races? If it looks like there will be a special election for gov, could Dino Rossi decide to run for Senate, seeing that the establishment would likely rally around Rob McKenna? Or, could McKenna, seeing that there will likely not be an open seat gov race in 2012, decide to run for Senate?  
    SSP Daily Digest: 5/12 (Morning Edition) | 90 comments

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