Washington Post's poll makes sense

I'm going to trust the Washington Post (and Baltimore Sun) polls more than any other because of the proximity to the region.

Both O'Malley and Ehrlich have similar approval ratings (although Ehrlich's disapproval rating is less) and similar to Republicans in other parts of the country, Ehrlich is winning independents in Maryland by a 2-1 margin.

The thing is however is that Maryland is a heavily Democratic state, and that Democrats in Maryland are more loyal than in Massachusetts for example (there are very few white blue collar Democrats in Maryland, the ones that went for Brown in the Senate special). I think that in the end O'Malley will win reelection, but by approxmietly 5% or so. For O'Malley to lose he would have to be eiether unpopular (like Corzine) or Ehrlich would have to be very popular (like Terry Brandstad in the Iowa gubernetorial) to overcome the general Democratic lean of the state. I mean what reason does Ehrlich have to kick O'Malley out? They are both about the same in popularity but O'Malley is the Democrat in a strongly Democratic state. I know that Ehrlich is making the sales and income tax increases a part of his campaign, but Marylanders are not as rabidly anti-tax as other people around the country and our state does have a deficit like so many others..

Competitive elections are not the norm in my state of Maryland so I'm not suprised that many Dem leaning voters are not as likely to vote as the obviously energized Republian voters in Maryland. But I do think it will become better for O'Malley as the election date nears and he starts getting voters attention. But as of know expect to see toss-up numbers for this race although more like a Lean Democratic in reality.
 

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by: Jaxx Raxor @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 18:26:51 PM UTC

Not sure if being local

is always a mark of trustworthiness. For instance didn't Suffolk mess up MA-Sen pretty badly?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

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by: sapelcovits @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 19:44:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agreed.

Insider Advantage (local to Georgia) overstated Obama's numbers in Georgia; they actually showed him leading.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 20:09:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The last 4 governors races have been competitive

in Maryland. In regards to working class areas, the Baltimore metro has lots of blue collar Democrats as well as the Shore and Southern MD.

As far as what he will run on, I think part of Ehrlich's message will be about how things were better when he was in charge. MD might not be that anti-tax but it is not a very low tax state and I bet Ehrlich will get some mileage out of that strategy, although it won't be nearly as effective as in less Democratic states as you stated previously.

On a final note, I would not trust a word the Baltimore Sun says regarding Ehrlich, they tried to sue him for not doing interviews with their reporters and got laughed out of court. The Sun is a partisan rag and not much else.  

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by: Jfindl1 @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 20:41:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Are you talking about White Blue Collar workers?

The only blue collar workers I've seen are Hispanic, and of course the Hispanic vote is reliably Democratic. On the other hand, I live in Montgomery County which is fairly diverse and most of the white people work in white collar jobs so maybe it's different than in Baltimore County. I went to UMBC but I know very little about the Baltimore County area.

The problem with an anti-Tax strategy is the fact that as I said, Maryland isn't a hardcore anti-tax state. One thing about the tax increases is that are helping to keep Maryland's deficit under control so if you roll back the income and sales tax then the state is going to lose a lot revenue and under Maryland's constitution you are REQUIRED to have a balanced budget. Maybe Ehrlich can try to raise fees like I heard he did as governor to avoid "raising taxes" but still demanding more money from the populous regardless.

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by: Jaxx Raxor @ Tue May 11, 2010 at 00:43:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I live up in Harford County

Yeah the Baltimore area has a fair amount of white blue collar workers, especially around the Baltimore County.

I don't think it will be a purely anti-tax strategy, Ehrlich will also try to play up the economy now compared to when he was in office as well as the size of the budget. I agree with you in that Maryland will not experience a "tax revolt" but with how high the tax rates are in MD, I think Ehrlich can definitely use the issue to his advantage.

Ehrlich will probably just point to what O'Malley has done and second guess him, Martin did the same thing to Ehrlich when he ran. O'Malley called out Ehrlich for raising fees and college tuition and didn't do anything about them once he got into office, so I bet Ehrlich will pull a similar trick, bemoan the raising of taxes and spending and then not change a thing if he wins.  

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by: Jfindl1 @ Tue May 11, 2010 at 03:24:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

A Tale of Two Metros

You're right as far as metropolitan DC goes. There is not much in the way of a blue-collar non-Hispanic white working class to be found there. What there is of it tends to live out in the periphery in Frederick County or in parts of Southern Maryland.

The Baltimore area, OTOH, has a decent chunk of this population, mostly in the suburbs at this point but still a significant presence in some outer city neighborhoods. Ehrlich, who's from a suburb of this sort (as it turns out, he grew up very near where UMBC is) crushed Kathleen Kennedy Townsend in these areas in 2002. O'Malley won in 2006 because he was able to put up a more respectable showing there while running up the score in Montgomery and Prince George's.

One caveat: MD being a closed primary state, there are a lot of phony Democrats on the rolls; Republican primaries worth voting in are few and far between even in parts of the state where Republicans are competitive, and in many places the Democratic primary is the "real" election. So there are plenty of people voting in Democratic primaries who either seldom or never support the nominee in the general election.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

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by: Answer Guy @ Tue May 11, 2010 at 03:35:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

My thinking on this....

Dem - 47%
GOP - 30%
Indie - 23%

Ehrlich - 17/95/52 = 49%
O'Malley - 83/5/48 = 51%

By comparison, the '06 results were...

Dem - 50%
GOP - 31%
Indie - 19%

Ehrlich - 15/93/49 = 47%
O'Malley - 95/7/47 = 53%

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

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by: andyroo312 @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 19:40:12 PM UTC

How was the Ehrlich/O'Malley polling at this point in 2006?

O'Malley should win. Probably by double digits. As others have pointed out, the state is strongly Democratic, and O'Malley doesn't suck like Corzine.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

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by: duffman @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 20:30:45 PM UTC

O'Malley won't win by double digits

I think he will probably prevail but Ehrlich isn't a joke candidate. This one will stay decently competitive barring a full blown melt down.  

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by: Jfindl1 @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 20:43:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

O'Malley was up

According to the wikipedia article, O'Malley had a 7 to 12 point lead throughout the spring and summer of 2006, which shrunk in October before he rebounded to win by 7. That was also the year of the Cardin/Steele Senate race, which polled almost identically to the governor's race throughout the year. Wonder if Mikulski will have any up-ballot effect this time.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

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by: MassGOP @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 20:52:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]