$300k down the tubes for nothing

Good thing the DCCC has such a large advantage of the NRCC.  

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by: Jfindl1 @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 16:35:40 PM UTC

It's all or nothing in Pennsylvania

If you'll win there, it'll be spun as a massive victory and the beginning of Dem comeback. With this big caveat hanging over it, the GOP could hardly use HI as a symbolic victory hearlding things to come.

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by: Ireland @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 16:54:57 PM UTC

Comeback?

They've won how many special house elections in a row, including NY-23.

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by: Paleo @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 18:30:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You're both right

While Ds have won like the last 10 special elections in the House,

I think Ireland's assessment is correct w/r/t how a win (if we win) will be seen in the MSM.

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by: tietack @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 18:52:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not in a row

The Dems have won a lot of house special elections but they lost the LA-04 Special election in Dec 08.  Granted they've still won more then they lost, but a loss here wouldn't be unprecedented.  

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by: rockymmdreamin @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 20:04:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That was not a special election.

That was general election 2008.  Due to hurricanes, the first primary was not until October.  For races that needed primary runoffs, it was agreed that those runoffs would occur on election day in November.  For those races, the general was held in December.  We lost LA-02 and LA-04 on the same night under the same circumstances, but neither was a special election.

Dems have in fact won 10 in a row:

LA-06
MS-01
MD-04
OH-11
NY-20
IL-05
CA-32
CA-10
NY-23
FL-19

The last one the Republicans won was LA-01 in May 2008.  Prior to that, Dems had won 3 in a row:

IL-14
IN-07
CA-12

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

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by: spiderdem @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 20:47:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Call it what you like

but LA-02 & LA-04 were two Dec. elections of house races that the dems lost.  It would benefit the dems to call these special elections because then they could minimize any fallout from the HI elections.

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by: rockymmdreamin @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 20:56:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Um

I call it a special election when it's a special election when someone resigns, dies, or becomes incapacitated midterm.  That was not the case in LA-02 or LA-04.  Fleming and Cao were elected in the general election - albeit postponed a month - and joined Congress with the rest of the freshman class in January 2009.  

It would not be smart for Dems to try to spin those as special elections because ... they weren't special elections.  Only the Republicans get to lie with impunity.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

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by: spiderdem @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 21:02:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

True but...

Mass Sen Special > all those house specials put together

So all this talk about special elections without factoring in the senate special is kind of a moo point*

*cow's opinion  

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by: Ireland @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 21:08:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No actually

10/435 = 2.3%
1/100 = 1.0%

Scott Brown's victory did not derail HCR (and in fact may have helped it in a perverse way) and does not seem to have done anything positive or negative for the overall electoral environment, which was bad for Dems before and has basically remained the same.  So I don't really see how it was intangibly better than 10 House seats either.

And no, "all this talk" about 10 House specials in a row is not "moot" or "moo" for that matter.  The DCCC has been kicking the NRCC's ass in specials for three years now, including 6 this cycle and 2 in swing districts this cycle.  That has nothing to do with Scott Brown.  

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

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by: spiderdem @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 21:24:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Critz will need all the help he can get

Burns has about 300k for the final stretch while Critz is sitting on 73k.  

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by: gomer @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 17:02:43 PM UTC

Great News

to hear that inner party squabbling is not primarily restricted to the Republican Party.

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by: Techno Byte @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 19:17:14 PM UTC

Are you kidding?

Dems have been doing this since the teabaggers were in diapers (ok, exaggeration, but still--there's a reason HCR didn't get passed in 94 with Dem majorities and just barely passed this year).

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

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by: sapelcovits @ Mon May 10, 2010 at 19:33:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

This is bad

but I understand. You can not spend money when in your team they are people working wrong.

The result: A new advantage for Djou.

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by: abgin @ Tue May 11, 2010 at 00:52:37 AM UTC