Mason-Dixon (5/3-5, likely voters, 1/18-20 in parens):
Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 44 (52)
Bill Halter (D): 32 (34)
D.C. Morrison (D): 7 (n/a)
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±5%)John Boozman (R): 48
Jim Holt (R): 17
Gilbert Baker (R): 11
Kim Hendren (R): 5
Conrad Reynolds (R): 2
Curtis Coleman (R): 1
Other: 1
Undecided: 15
(MoE: ±5%)
Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 35
John Boozman (R): 52
Undecided: 13Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 39 (39)
Gilbert Baker (R): 47 (43)
Undecided: 14 (18)Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 40 (43)
Jim Holt (R): 45 (37)
Undecided: 15 (20)Bill Halter (D): 32
John Boozman (R): 56
Undecided: 12Bill Halter (D): 34
Gilbert Baker (R): 42
Undecided: 24Bill Halter (D): 36
Jim Holt (R): 42
Undecided: 22
(MoE: ±4%)
Remember, in Arkansas, if one candidate fails to get 50% on May 18, then we’ll have a run-off on June 8th. The entry of weirdo Paulist D.C. Morrison suggests that this is a possibility on the Dem side, and the fractured GOP field might also yield a run-off, unless John Boozman can seal the deal soon – which he may be close to doing. In light of this, run-off hopeful Gilbert Baker has released his own numbers (PDF) from The Political Firm showing him in second place with 22% (with Boozman at 44 and Jim Holt! in third with just 8). Research 2000 will have a new survey out this week, and I’m sure they won’t be alone.
and against Boozman, there’s an equally low number of undecideds.
That hurts the argument that Halter has more room for growth.
is a good candidate BUT lincoln won’t be going quietly(i expect a run-off)
Nice AD reference.
Maybe Halter running to the left of Lincoln in Arkansas will help her in the general. It looks like Halter is looking weaker in the general.
the mid/high fifties national Republican vote in the state to support him, unlike previous Republicans. (I don’t think it’s him, it’s the times/environment.) That’s pretty much it for the General if they turn out. And perhaps the beginning of the end for the conservative Dem machine in the state.
There’s generally sort of an arc or rainbow of conservative Democrat seats being conceded or looking lost in a geographical arc around Mississippi and Alabama. State House seats in Texas, governor in Oklahoma, governor and KS-3 in Kansas, LA-6 in Louisiana and their legislature (always a crap shoot), a Senate and one or two House seats in Arkansas, maybe Skelton’s southern Missouri House seat. Governor and a House seat or two in Tennessee, not a whole lot of clarity in Kentucky (Beshear and Chandler have tough constituencies), Griffith’s seat in northern Alabama, maybe Marshall’s House seat in southwestern Georgia. The Southern Democratic incumbent is going to become a lot rarer of a species.
Bobby Bright and Artur Davis’s successor in central Alabama, Thompson and Childers in Mississippi, and the state legislature majorities there will probably survive this year. Probably Alan Boyd as well.