Google Ads


Site Stats

SSP Daily Digest: 5/6 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Thu May 06, 2010 at 8:07 AM EDT


  • FL-Sen: Some more lulzy shit from Charlie Crist: Now he says he won't engage in any more negative campaigning. He also re-iterated that he's pro-life (jeez) and that he doesn't like Arizona's new immigration law. I think there might be six people in America who belong to his crazy-ass, Garanimals-style mix-n-match political party. Meanwhile, ex-North Miami Mayor Kevin Burns is abandoning the Democratic primary (where he never got even the slightest bit of traction) and running for the state senate seat being vacated by Dem Dan Gelber, who is running for AG.

  • NV-Gov: Ralph Waldo Emerson surely had Brian Sandoval in mind when he sagely observed that a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds. When he ran for state AG in 2002, he told the editorial board of the Las Vegas Review-Journal that he viewed it as the AG's job to defend any state law, no matter how constitutionally suspect. Since he was clearly out sick the day they taught the Socratic method in law school, Sandoval, when pressed, even said that he would enforce a law requiring Jews to wear yellow stars. Yeah. But now it's Gov. Jim Gibbons' turn to sound ridiculous, since he put out a press release that directly compared Sandoval to the Nazis. Sigh. I would have flunked Sandoval had I been his civpro professor, but this charge is a bit much, to say the least.

  • IL-14: The Tarrance Group (R) for Randy Hultgren (5/3-4, likely voters, no trendlines):

    • Bill Foster (D-inc): 44
    Randy Hultgren (R): 45
    (MoE: ±5.7%)

  • MO-08: GOP Rep. Jo Ann Emerson was reportedly short-listed to become chair of the Credit Union National Association (whose current chief will step down at the end of the year), but she's denying that she's interested. Dem Tommy Sowers, who has shown some surprising fundraising prowess in this deep red district, had been making some hay about this.

  • MS-01: Former FOX News talking head Angela McGlowan flip-flopped and now says she'll support whoever the Republican nominee is against Travis Childers. Previously, she said she refused to back NRCC fave Alan Nunnelee if he won the GOP nod, citing some tax apostasy.

  • OH-18: Four local labor unions (SEIU, CWA, UFCW and UAW) held a rally to announce that they officially plan to withhold their support from Rep. Zack Space. Space, as you'll recall, switched his vote from "yes" to "no" on the healthcare bill. SEIU is actually encouraging folks to "Skip a Space" and not vote for him altogether (though the other unions did not go that far).

  • CT-AG: It's official (for now) - Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz can run for AG. You may recall a weird issue came up some months ago - namely, CT requires that its attorneys general have "actively practiced" law for ten years. A Superior Court judge ruled today that Bysiewicz's service as SoS, which involved ruling on legal matters related to elections, met that requirement. (Had it not, she would have failed to qualify.) The state GOP may still appeal.

  • Campaign Finance: A little-noticed provision of the so-called DISCLOSE Act, which is aimed at blunting the impact of the Supreme Court's Citizens United decision, would have a major impact on party committees like the DCCC and NRCC. As you know, every two years, these committees must set up walled-off departments which make independent expenditures on behalf of campaigns - but can never communicate with those same campaigns. The DISCLOSE Act would redefine the test for impermissible coordination, only barring the party committees from making IEs if they are "controlled by, or made at the direction of" the candidate. That will be a pretty easy problem to avoid, if the bill passes. Mr. Reid, Ms. Pelosi - tear down that wall!
    		•
    DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 5/6 (Morning Edition)
    Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , (All Tags)
    Print Friendly View Send As Email

    SSP Daily Digest: 5/6 (Morning Edition) | 59 comments
    IL-14
    A one-point difference in a partisan poll?  Good news.  Problem means Foster is ahead by a few points.  
    It's great how the media accepts internal polls as gospel, isn't it?
    It's not like a campaign would ever cook the numbers to appear more favorable or anything.
    [ Parent ]
    It's the lack of alternatives
    In the absence of objective third party polls, internal polls are the only data points available.
    [ Parent ]
    True

    We have very few non-republican polls, but I think we can not ignore these polls when we have not other options.

    IL-14 is a district for leave not free way to republican pollsters.

    [ Parent ]
    A good campaign wouldn't
    A good campaign, unless it's in its early stages and is merely out to generate press, wants to know where it really stands.  There's not much use in lying to yourself if you're 20 points down to say you're six points up.

    30, male, Democratic, CO-01
    [ Parent ]
    OH-18
    Cutting your nose off to spite your face.  It's not like the legislation was the second coming of Medicare.  Stupid move.
    For Reals!
    How does putting a wackjob republican in power in that seat help anyone?

    SEIU is def part of the problem here and is why unions have such a bad name.

    [ Parent ]
    Wouldn't go that far
    This has nothing to do with the union movement in general.  If this were, say, a vote on job outsourcing legislation masquerading as trade legislation, I would have no problem with what they did.  But this was a half-ass bill that the health insurance industry had no problem with.
    [ Parent ]
    Obviously They Disagree
    Unions have priorities. If a member of Congress opposes their top priorities, they have no special interest in backing that member's reelection. I mean really, you expect them to tell their members - Knock on doors for, and give money to this guy who votes against you! I'm actually surprised more interest groups don't show some backbone like this more often (and wondering why no one's doing such a thing against Mr. Lipinski). Presumably they'll back some other Democrat in 2012 should Mr. Space not be reelected (or perhaps even if he is).
    [ Parent ]
    Their priorities are served even less by having a teabag-pandering Republican in office in Space's stead
    n/t

    Male, 23, DC-At Large
    [ Parent ]
    Maybe, Maybe Not
    How does this hurt them? I agree that from a partisan, Dem viewpoint a Republican is worse than Space. But if Space is going to vote No on union priorities anyway, he is effectively no different than a Republican from their perspective. Sure, Space will probably vote to increase the minimum wage or whatever, but that's not nearly as important as EFCA and the like.

    Yes, if Space loses and the GOP takes over the House by one seat this will have backfired. However if just one (1) House Democrat votes for a union priority next session who wouldn't have otherwise for fear of union retribution (and because of Space's example), unions will have on net gained one vote from this. If no Dems vote differently, unions will be neither better nor worse off. Personally, I think it would be really healthy when/if Space, Arcuri, McMahon, Adler etc. lose, that the narrative is not just "Teabaggers Triumphant" but also "Union Payback."

    [ Parent ]
    Space has a strong voting record with labor
    Healthcare was a big issue, but its not the only issue important to Labor, and for the past four years Space has been a solid vote them.  He is in a R+ 7 district he's not going to be able to please them all the time, but it is still a lot more then none of the time which is what the republican would be.
    [ Parent ]
    That's what primaries are for
    As Molly Ivins used to say, "In primaries vote with your heart, in general elections vote with your head."
    [ Parent ]
    Not stupid
    Have you noticed how the Republicans won't vote for legislation that would prevent people on the TERRORIST WATCH LIST from purchasing weapons? Totally irrational position for a party that believes in denying Miranda rights and habeus corpus to alleged terrorists and torturing them, right? So are they being complete crazy idiots? Maybe, but why? Because they live in fear of the NRA withholding support from them.

    These unions want to be feared by the Democratic Party. They aren't. And the only way they will be is if they punish Democrats who vote against their priorities. Someone who switched from yes to no on HCR is a perfect candidate for such strategic punishment from unions.

    Remember: Unions don't exist to be partisan. They exist to serve their members, and the best way for them to do that is to gain greater power and influence while taking a hard line.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  

    [ Parent ]
    OH-18 - Wow
    This is just a showing of what is wrong with labor unions with regard to electoral politics.  They have no feel for their representatives and what they must do to hold their seats.  Representative Space has done a fantastic job holding down one of the more republican seats in the state of Ohio, even netting 60% of the vote in 2008, a 15% overperformance from Barack Obama's 45%.  Sure he hasn't voted with the democratic leadership all the time, but he has voted for cap-n-trade, along with HCR the 1st time, and other important democratic legislation.  

    If they want to defeat Space in a primary, that's one thing.  But to actively encourage democrats not to vote in November so that the Republican candidate can beat him is sheer idiocy on their part.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    Pointing out that he voted for HCR the first time
    only made Space more lost to me.  I dont like unions trying to ruin our chances in such a red seat but blah, Space voted for the much more liberal piece of legislation and then voted against the conservative option because of political liabilities.

    The ones who voted yes then no are the ones who really make me scowl a bit.  Still dont want to see him go though, obviously.

    [ Parent ]
    Unless Gibbons & Sandoval are now running for Senate, I think the tag needs to be changed
    NV-Gov, not NV-Sen.

    Male, 23, DC-At Large
    CT-AG
    That is an unusual law.  As a law student, I am curious if a professor would be able to run under that statute.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
    [ Parent ]
    Interesting question.
    I would have said no because professors don't need to be barred in the state they're teaching (or at all really).  But I doubt the CT SoS does, so that's not the measure.  But professors don't really do any legal work like the court said the SoS does.
    [ Parent ]
    probably not
    Statute requires ""an attorney-at-law of at least ten years' active practice at the bar of this state," and the court explicitly rejected the notion that just being licensed for the past ten years was enough.  The Court instead concluded that "'active practice' is a qualitative term used only to distinguish those who have actually engaged in some form of legal practice from those who have not" ... "actually engaging in some form of legal practice as a member of the bar of this state, although not necessarily doing so in a courtroom, or on a continuing basis, or with any particular degree of frequency or intensity."
    [ Parent ]
    Maryland has a similar law
    In 2006, Tom Perez, now the Assistant U.S. AG for Civil Rights, was ruled ineligible to run for state AG.
    [ Parent ]
    NV-Gov or Sen or whatever.
    Sandoval, when pressed, even said that he would enforce a law requiring Jews to wear yellow stars. Yeah. But now it's Gov. Jim Gibbons' turn to sound ridiculous, since he put out a press release that directly compared Sandoval to the Nazis.

    In that perspective, Lowden's chickens for checkups sounds positively sane.

    [ Parent ]
    This has been a horrible week for
    circular firing squad news.  Yeah, I'm talking to you Colleen Hanabusa, Jennifer Brunner, "bone tired" coward David Obey, and now the unions in Southeast Ohio.  This is the kind of chaos that will cause us to lose the House even though we don't have to.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    Hanabusa
    is not to blame.  If you want to blame anyone, blame DINO Case and the DCCC.
    [ Parent ]
    Hanabusa is to blame
    not for staying in but for going hard negative on Case when she is in a distant third.  She is willfully playing the spoiler, and is pretty certain to succeed.  

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    Distant third?
    One poll, released by the DCCC who wants her out of the race, had her a "distant third."  It's called a self-fulfilling prophecy.  Every other poll that has been taken on the race has them basically even.  
    [ Parent ]
    Honolulu Advertiser poll
    had her 6 points behind Case.  DNC poll had her down 14.  Average is 10.  I'd say that's pretty comfortably in third.  I consider all other polls in this rapidly developing special election to be stale.  In fact, these polls, which were completed on 4/28 (HA poll) and 4/26 (DNC poll) are bordering on stale already.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    Yup, both polls had her in the low 20s
    (The same as Scozzafava when she withdrew, less than a week before election day.)

    While there was a difference in Case's numbers, both polls also had Djou at 36%.

    ref http://www.swingstateproject.c... for all 5 polls on the race.

    [ Parent ]
    6 points
    is well within the MOE, especially for a primary.  And a primary in Hawaii, where polling has been shown to have a tendency to exaggerate the white portion of the electorate.  And it is a far cry from 14.
    [ Parent ]
    And as we discussed in another thread
    MOE works both ways.  If the poll comes out 38/35/25, with a MOE of 5 lets say the numbers are really 43-33/40-30/30-20.

    Even with a 10% advantage of Hanabusa, with MOE there is plenty of wiggle room to call this a toss-up.

    [ Parent ]
    calling a race that is 10 percent
    apart in the polling a tossup is a little much.  May be within moe but very unlikely the poll is off that far.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    It's actually 12 or 14
    (The polling margin by which Hanabusa trails Djou)

    Depending on which of the last two polls you look at.

    Hanubasa is clearly significantly behind Djou, even if previously referenced undercounts were all in her favor. If she stays in, I see no path to victory for her.

    [ Parent ]
    Obey has been in Congress over 40 years
      and is over age 70. He should have the right to retire without being called a coward. You or I might not be happy with his decision but that does not make him a coward.

    52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
    [ Parent ]
    I second this post.

    [ Parent ]
    I third it

    [ Parent ]
    I'm irrational
    like seemingly every Democrat this week.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    If he weren't doing this out of cowardice
    he would have announced months ago in order to give his replacement an opportunity to build fundraising and name recognition.  Now Duffy has a $500K head start, making life difficult for whomever runs for the Dems.

    Plus his announcement long after most of the others creates a new "Dems in trouble" meme and may encourage other fence-sitters to retire.

    This is a real shit sandwich.  While it's oh so gallant of you to defend Obey from my strong language, I'm sticking with it.  I'm pissed.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    Well, you are within your rights,
    But don't you think that it's still your problem, not Obey's?..
    [ Parent ]
    It's going to be every Democrat's problem
    when Republicans take the House because of the collective incompetence and cowardice of people like those mentioned in my initial, irrational rant that started all of this.  So yes, it's my problem in that way.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    Thanks God, that i am Independent)))))

    [ Parent ]
    Obey
    He has money in his campaign account that he can transfer to the Democratic nominee.  And the filing date is still over two months away, and the primary over four months away.

    As he said yesterday, he wanted to have work on the health bill completed before he made a final decision.  The guy's been in congress for 40 years, and has fought tons of battles for the good guys.  He was entitled to take that time.  

    [ Parent ]
    As far as I know
    Obey's campaign can donate $2,400 to the new candidate.  He can give to the DCCC or the state party, I suppose.

    The late primary and filing deadline is a mitigating factor, I suppose.  Still pisses me off.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    You aren't the only one annoyed Spiderdem
    I dont care if Obey has been in office for 40 years or 100, or 2; clearly as a Congresscritter your life decisions have an enormously large affect on our national political outcomes.  And this life decision negatively affects my Election Night result watching so damn right I have a right to be annoyed and complain a bit.  Out of the 20 times he's run for Congress, and considering he's only 71, the other 10 times he could have ran if he wanted to, he picks extremely late into this cycle of all cycles to be too tired to go on.  Bitch, please.......

    And the thing for me, this whole, I have a harder challenger so I need to retire thing, is incomprehensible.  Who this involved in politics would run away from a fight like the ones these incumbents are facing, especially Obey.  Sean Duffy?  Seriously?  I just dont get it, if I were Obey and had been there for 40 years and control of the chamber is at risk, Id be shouting, bring it on pathetic Real Worlder, Im gonna kick your ass!  And if the crypt-keeper of the Senate, Robert Byrd, can do it, then certainly 71 year-old Obey can manage 2 more years without keeling over from exhaustion.  (Crypt keeper is being used affectionately fyi.)

    But whatever, you go be tired Mr. Obey, we'll all just have to door knock a little extra harder to make up for your tiredness.

    [ Parent ]
    Congresspersons are people too
    If the guy's burned out, he's burned out.  Give him a break.

    And it has nothing to do with Duffy.  As Obey said yesterday, he was ready to retire in 2002, but stayed because of Bush.  He also wanted to stay until some sort of health insurance legislation was passed.  And he said that he didn't want to go through another redistricting because after 2000, fighting over it took up too much of his time.

    [ Parent ]
    Thank you for ranting with me, Andrew!
    I was beginning to feel like a voice in the wilderness.  

    Bitch, please.......

    I love it!

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    Another alternate universe
    Cowardice doesn't even make sense.  Seriously, the warped perspective around here sometimes makes JSmith and Tekzilla look like optimists.  Obey wouldn't break a sweat against Duffy.

    I can't imagine why any sane person over 70 would want to be a member of Congress.  Obey did more than his bit for his country for 40 years, which no doubt is a lot more than can be said for anyone insulting him.

    [ Parent ]
    That's it!
    You're a genius!  Obey looked at his internals and thought, "I'm not going to have to break a sweat," and then decided to bail out.

    The cynic in me says Obey believed either or both that (1) Dems were going to lose control of the House or (2) he was going to have a difficult race with Duffy, if not lose.  If something else was motivating him, I believe he would have done this earlier.

    And let's try not to personally insult each other in this online community.  It's one thing to speculate about and defame politicians.  We live for that.  It's another to personally insult one another.  That is unpleasant.  My point of view on this is somewhat speculative, but hardly "warped."  Nor do I suffer from any special degree of pessimism.  My views on 2010 losses are well within the mainstream among SSP users, which is optimistic compared to the world at large.  

    Don't be a dick!

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    CT-Sen: McMahon improves, Simmons collapses against Blumenthal
    Rasmussen finds McMahon down 13% (a 7-point improvement) against Blumenthal, while Simmons is lagging by 23% (a 9-point decline from their prior poll).

    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    yeah
    I think this is the definition of a sleeper race. Blumenthal is Coakely mark II, only less passionate, telegenic and articulate. His latest debate against third-tier opponents was a train-wreck. Linda McMahon was vulnerabilities coming out the yazoo, but she has tons o' money, and in a small state like CT, she can blanket the airways with ads.

    She has plenty of weaknesses but she's scrappy as hell, and in an anti-establishment/GOP wave elction like this one, McMahon-Blumenthal has all the ingredients for GOP take-over #10.

    [ Parent ]
    I saw someone elsewhere post the internals of this Ras poll...
    Note the difference between McMahon and Simmons among Indies...

    Blumenthal - 47%
    Simmons - 36%

    McMahon - 54%
    Blumenthal - 41%

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    yeah
    I think this is the definition of a sleeper race. Blumenthal is Coakely mark II, only less passionate, telegenic and articulate. His latest debate against third-tier opponents was a train-wreck. Linda McMahon was vulnerabilities coming out the yazoo, but she has tons o' money, and in a small state like CT, she can blanket the airways with ads.

    She has plenty of weaknesses but she's scrappy as hell, and in an anti-establishment/GOP wave elction like this one, McMahon-Blumenthal has all the ingredients for GOP take-over #10.

    [ Parent ]
    oops, sorry for double post

    [ Parent ]
    Interesting race
    The New York Times did an interesting piece on the Blumenthal / Coakley comparison a few weeks ago.  McMahon is the type of candidate that could exploit this.  She is feisty and Blumenthal is anything but feisty.  

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
    [ Parent ]
    Small state?
    you do realize CT is well within New York's sphere of influence and that it's not cheap, right?

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    Even Better
    Yeah I wrote that without thinking. I was meaning to say that in an expensive media market it's much more crucial that you can spend money, so her fiancial advantage will carr more water than it would in say Arkansas.
    [ Parent ]
    CA-Gov: Poizner internals have Whitman up 10
    http://stevepoizner.com/blog/2...

    This poll seems a bit fishy to me, though. I cannot imagine 44% of the GOP electorate is still undecided on this thing, and I find it amusing that Poizner's championing a poll which still has him at a whopping 28%.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    I believe it for that 28% reason
    and the undecideds are easy to understand... both candidates have ads running against them constantly that say they suck.  In contrast, the positive ads seem to air far less.

    From a Team Blue perspective, this is very very cool.  Team Red is behaving like Westly/Angelides did.

    [ Parent ]
    CT-AG

    This is a very good new. I glad Bysiewicz can run, because I think she can be the democratic frontrunner for Lieberman's seat in 2012.
    She should've just stayed as Secretary of State
    I can't imagine this whole "is she qualified, isn't she qualified" thing has helped her standing.
    [ Parent ]
    SSP Daily Digest: 5/6 (Morning Edition) | 59 comments

    Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

    Primary Sponsor

    You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

    Menu

    Make a New Account

    Username:

    Password:



    Forget your username or password?

    About the Site

    Publisher: DavidNYC

    Senior Editor: James L.

    Senior Editor: Crisitunity

    Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

    Search the SSP archives:

    Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

    SSP Resources

    Presidential Vote by CD

    SSP Document Collection

    Race Tracker Wiki

    Dave's Redistricting App

    Blogroll

    Daily Kos Elections
    DemConWatch
    Five Thirty Eight
    Governing
    Hotline On Call
    Political Wire
    Pollster.com
    Prop*50
    Public Policy Polling
    The Thicket
    Powered by: SoapBlox