Ward Research (PDF) for the Honolulu Advertiser & Hawaii News Now (4/23-28, likely voters, no tendlines)
Neil Abercrombie (D): 49
Duke Aiona (R): 35
Undecided: 16
Mufi Hannemann (D): 48
Duke Aiona (R): 35
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±4.0%)
Neil Abercrombie (D): 36
Mufi Hannemann (D): 32
I'm Voting in the GOP Primary: 11
Undecided: 21
(MoE: ±4.0%)
This is an extremely unusual way to poll a primary. Hawaii has an open primary, but even so, likely voters in the general election are a different breed from likely primary voters. Abercrombie does better among Democrats while Hanneman is stronger among Republicans; if I had to guess, that bodes well for Abercrombie, because when push comes to shove, I think Republicans are probably less likely to bother showing up to vote in a Democratic primary than, well, Democrats are (even though there is no competitive GOP race).
Against Aiona, neither Dem holds on to members of his own party all that well - Abercrombie at 67-19 and Hannemann at 63-19, while Aiona retains Republicans in the mid-to-high 70s. The problem, though, is that there are a hell of a lot more Democrats than Republicans in Hawaii, which makes Aiona's job especially hard, even though he wins independents 43-32 against both potential opponents. Democrats are also likely to have more money. Hawaii only requires fundraising reports every six months, so the last set of numbers are out of date. I'm willing to guess that Abercrombie's stepped it up quite a bit since his resignation from the House, and Mufi is still probably cruising, too.
HI-Sen: For anyone still concerned that Gov. Linda Lingle (R) might challenge Sen. Dan Inouye this year (like me!), this poll shows her with just a 40-53 job approval - the lowest in her two terms as governor. Apparently she's taken a major hit because of teacher furloughs. Still, I think Lingle could be a strong challenger to Dan Akaka in 2012. |
