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SSP Daily Digest: 5/5 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Wed May 05, 2010 at 8:13 AM EDT


  • FL-22: You stray, you pay. Marco Rubio strayed from the GOP reservation on Arizona's new immigration law, and now ultra-rightist Allen West is attacking him for it. It will probably endear West even more to his base, but I note that the 22nd CD is 15% Hispanic (though undoubtedly some portion is Cuban).

  • PA-12 (PDF): Global Strategy Group (D) for Mark Critz (4/27-29, likely voters, mid-April in parens):

    • Mark Critz: 45 (41)
    Tim Burns: 37 (38)
    (MoE: ±4.9%)

  • RI-01: Former Providence city councilman David Segal is considering a run, and the Progressive Change Campaign Committee wants to back him. He would join former state Democratic Party Chairman William Lynch and current Providence Mayor David Cicilline in the race. Businessman Anthony Gemma says he is also "strongly considering" a bid.

  • VA-05: Virgil Goode, who briefly served in Congress as an independent (between his switch from the Democratic to the Republican Party) has abandoned the major parties once again. He says he's joining the Constitution Party - though no word on whether he plans to run on that line for his old seat. However, Jeff Clark says he [Clark] has gathered enough signatures to qualify for the ballot as an independent - but will only run if state Sen. Robert Hurt is the GOP nominee. It seems like local conservatives hate Hurt as much as we hate Lieberman.

  • UT-02: Retired school teacher Claudia Wright is planning to challenge Rep. Jim Matheson at the 2nd CD Democratic convention this Saturday, and says she thinks she can get the 40% she needs to make it on to the primary ballot. Wright principally cites Matheson's healthcare vote as the reason for her run. While we just saw last night that unhappy liberals in North Carolina were willing to vote for no-names against two other Dems who voted nay on HCR (Heath Shuler and Larry Kissell), the stakes are a lot higher in UT-02, where it's hard to imagine any Dem other than Matheson holding this seat.
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    DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 5/5 (Morning Edition)
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    SSP Daily Digest: 5/5 (Morning Edition) | 64 comments
    What do you all know about Global Strategy Group?
    How's their track record, and are they an internal poll?

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  
    A Google suggests ugly things
    http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

    a top New York political consulting firm, the Global Strategy Group, have paid millions in penalties to the state and to the Securities and Exchange Commission in the widening fallout over money managers' use of political connections to lay hands on public workers' pension money.

    While that doesn't necessarily say anything about the credibility of their polling numbers in PA-12, it sure doesn't feel good.

    [ Parent ]
    I like to caution you
    Your getting your source from Politico and regardless two days ago I believe a poll conducted by Anzalone for the DCCC on this had Critz up by a couple of points.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
    [ Parent ]
    The NY Times article on the subject is more severe
    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04...

    The acknowledgment came after the office of the attorney general, Andrew M. Cuomo, announced a settlement with Global Strategy Group, a political consulting firm. The firm helped arrange investments by the state's nearly $130 billion pension fund, including one that came after Global Strategy took part in a meeting between Mr. DiNapoli and a prominent investment executive.

    I have to ask, WTH is the DCCC doing contracting with this firm after these kinds of foibles?

    [ Parent ]
    You quoted the Times, good.
    And the D-Trip didn't commission this poll, Critz did. The DCCC did commission a poll for this race a few days ago but that was by Anazone-Lizt )which is a credible polling company) that had Critz up by around the same margin as the poll were talking about.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
    [ Parent ]
    Politico is oft cited here
    Yes, they have their problems, but why do you diss me for citing them? I note that the front pagers here also cite Politico often.

    In addition, the same question applies to Crist. With what the Global Strategy Group has done, WHY are they getting any D business?

    [ Parent ]
    I didn't dissed you, I just pointed out something...
    Because Politico has a habit of being a RW shill and creating news stories solely to make liberals look bad. I remmber one article and it was very long and a front page one suggesting that Obama will lose because of the pillars on his Convention acceptance stage. It's stupid shit like that that makes me question there journalism. Yes there quoted here, dosen't mean i'm for it. But you then quoted the Times and that's better than quoting that shill of a site.

    As for why there getting any D business, can't say man and it's Critz not Crist.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.

    [ Parent ]
    Picky picky picky
    Now you're dissing me on my spelling. Jeez.

    And it's not like I cited FoxNews on the subject. IMO, Politico is not intentionally a RW shill, they're just often sloppy w/r/t rumours, as they're more like a political scandal sheet.

    [ Parent ]
    Okay now your just being silly
    And Politico is intentionally a RW shill, it's been documented by people such as TPM and Salon's Glenn Greenwald and you don't have to even know that by reading the stuff they publish to the ingorant tea bagger like post in the comment section of every article.

    22, Male, Democrat, PA-18.
    [ Parent ]
    Source please, w/r/t Politico
    Do you suggest that others who don't have your level of knowledge are also "silly"? No wonder the working class can't stand people like us.
    [ Parent ]
    You cited the Times
    which doesn't have the problems you're discussing in relation to Politico. But I think both of you should be careful about this kind of remark:

    No wonder the working class can't stand people like us.

    I won't characterize it, but will let others pass judgment on it - hopefully, without comment.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  

    [ Parent ]
    I would still like your source w/r/t Politico
    and I stand by my remark, as it's consistent with my complaints about those here who refer to some voters as "stupid".
    [ Parent ]
    There are stupid voters
    and stupid CEO's, Senators, bus drivers, surgeons, retail managers, etc.  There is going to be a "stupid" group in any segment of the population and it's hardly some elitist thing.  Red-necks would think Im stupid because I dont know how to change a flat while i think they're dumb for believing in god.  Some people do take this to an elitist level but mostly it's taking it to a level of, well they dont know what I know so they are stupid.

    Which goes to my point about elitism, it's all perception.  We're all elitist in some regard because we all prefer our way of life over someone else's, and often that gets confused as mocking other people's lifestyles mainly because people like to joke around.  Hell, my fbook status right now is a list of things I love about living in the Uptown neighborhood of Minneapolis vs small-town exurbia.  But it's not like conservatives dont say the same about us.  The "real america", painting liberals as unpatriotic and who hate America and freedom, demonizing the East and West coasts (the left coast), openly mocking San Fran and NYC on a regular basis, etc.  And especially when you look at the language our politicians use; GOP politicians are much more elitist about my lifestyle vs our politicians and their lifestyle.

    And to bring this to an electoral perspective, the elitism most likely going to win is liberal elitism.  The demographic trends are quite clear about that in where we move, how we are educated, our tech-saavy, etc.  And in fact, the GOP rhetoric as of late has gotten so crazy and outlandish because they know their life is on the decline.  Whites will be a minority, gays will be marrying, marijuana will be smoked copiously, and we'll all live in major metro areas.

    [ Parent ]
    Your redirection is appreciated
    And we need to work harder to take advantage of what you say here:
    But it's not like conservatives dont say the same about us.  The "real america", painting liberals as unpatriotic and who hate America and freedom, demonizing the East and West coasts (the left coast), openly mocking San Fran and NYC on a regular basis, etc.  And especially when you look at the language our politicians use; GOP politicians are much more elitist about my lifestyle vs our politicians and their lifestyle.

    [ Parent ]
    Just for some fun reference numbers
    The population of San Fran is 808k population, larger than 4 states with South Dakota only ahead by 4k so census pending even up to 5 states.

    The NYC metro area is home to 1 in 15 Americans and the city of NYC has a larger population than ::drum roll please:: 39 states!  You would need to add the states of Wyoming, Delaware, North Dakota, Alaska, South Dakota, Montana, Idaho, and Nebraska together to get to around the population of NYC, and the combination is 2,620 times the land size!

    (Feel free to add your own.)

    [ Parent ]
    Yet NYC has no senators
    and those states each have two. And the disproportionate power of most of those low-population states is doing great harm to the Democratic Party - and, I'd argue, the country.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  
    [ Parent ]
    Um, the same pollster worked for Scott Murphy and Bill Owens in New York......
    It's a credible pollster, and your links in your comments don't speak to Global Strategy Group's credibility as a pollster.  Yes they could be complete sleezeballs, but that doesn't mean their polling is bad, especially if they're hired repeatedly by Democrats for U.S. House special elections which is very high profile in the political consulting world.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
    [ Parent ]
    Fair enough, n/t

    [ Parent ]
    please run Goode
    please...
    RI-01
    Don't forget to mention that David Segal is a current State Rep.

    Also, if Anthony Gemma is who I think he is, he might actually have some name recognition. Back when I actually spent most of my time in Providence I used to hear commercials for Gemma's plumbing/heating company a lot, and they were known for (get this) their phone number being 867-5309.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

    BEST state rep in RI
    This is very exciting news.  Segal is wonky, strategic, progressive as all hell, and has a really good shot here, especially with PCCC's backing.  

    Check out this awesome article, about how he is the "hippest guy in state government": http://thephoenix.com/Boston/n...

    [ Parent ]
    God, I hope he runs
    That would be fantastic. Get him in Congress now, and then have him run for Senate when Reed retires in 10 years (Segal will only be 40 then)

    Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
    [ Parent ]
    Interesting
    I have to admit, even though I am from nearby (Edith Ajello's district) I didn't really know much about him. He sounds like he'd win the Brown/RISD vote handily, if nothing else.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    also
    I assume Wikipedia is wrong when it says he lives in East Prov?  

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    15% Hispanic is same as national average
    not a big deal

    26, male, Dem, NJ-12
    Well
    If it's a close election, and (non-Cuban) Hispanics are extra-pissed at Republicans and Allen West in particular, it sure as hell could be a big deal.
    [ Parent ]
    It's a big deal.
    While 15 percent may be right at the mean, it is way above the median.  The vast majority of districts have few or no hispanics. The mean is only so high because a relatively small  number of districts in cali, the southwest, miami, nyc, and chicago have huge numbers of hispanics. Getting 2/3 of hispanics instead of 1/2 gets Klein 2.5 percent, which can be all the difference in the world.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    IN Sen
    Considering the teabaggers seem to hate Coats, is there any chance that he will get a third party challenge? He got less than 40 percent in the Repub primary, there seems to be a large swath of voters who don't want to see him back in the Senate.

    19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem
    Probably not
    We have some of the most restrictive ballot access laws in the country -- even Ralph Nadar was never listed on the ballot here for any of his four dozen runs for the White House.  So I don't think there will be an organized effort to oppose Coats from the right, unless anti-Coats right wingers go to the Libertarian candidate (the Libertarians are listed on the ballot).
    [ Parent ]
    The LP candidate is a member of the party's National Committee
    I'm not going to be shilling for the Libertarians on this site, but yes, I do expect her to do reasonably well.

    The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
    [ Parent ]
    Yeah
    I could see her getting 5-10% of mainly anti-Coats votes.  

    Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
    [ Parent ]
    Short post-primary analysis
    (as usually - all conclusions are my own only...)

    1. Establishment won big yesterday (Fisher and, probably, Marshall among Democrats, Coats, Rokita, Burton, Buchson, Ganley, Stivers, Renacci. and, probably, Gibbs - among Republicans)

    2. Teabaggers made splashes (especially in Indiana), but lost almost everywhere

    3. "conservative" (read - anti-HCR, read - Kissel, Shuler) Democrats got some "mild" (still over 60%) "warnings" from left-leaning Democratic primary electorate, but have good chances to get reelected in November

    4. The enthusiasm among Republicans is still higher then among Democrats (may be - because of greater number of candidates and competitive races)

    5. Wait for Pennsylvania and Arkansas for further conclusions)))

    That's all for now))))

    Enthusiasm
    The very enthusiastic gap is down to ten points, 43-33. Generic ballot tied 45-45 RV. I have know doubt that the GOP are ahead with LV but only by a few points. All still to play for.

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/127...

    [ Parent ]
    As the economy rebounds
    I can only see us doing better.  
    [ Parent ]
    Unfair to call Marshall establishment
    Cunningham was courted by the DSCC.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    Disagree
    Marshall is 14 years SoS. If that doesn't automatically qualifies candidate as part of state establishment - well, then i don't know proper words for "proper description" in this case.
    [ Parent ]
    but
    Cunningham was an elected official too. not as long as her but still. And if the DSCC is backing someone besides you, you're on shaky ground if you call yourself establishment (then again, I don't think many people want to).

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
    [ Parent ]
    Establishment or no...
    Cunningham was only in the NC legislature for 2 years (2001-2003).  Marshall has been the SoS for 13+ years.

    Cunningham may have the DSCC backing, but most of the statewide Democratic politicians support Marshall.  I think the DSCC realized that Marshall might not be the best candidate against Burr since she's been very low-profile during her tenure.

    Six in one, half a dozen in the other. Both have establishment backing, but just in different realms.

    40, male, Democrat, NC-04

    [ Parent ]
    Right
    Like Case and Hanabusa in HI-01.

    All I'm saying is, it's unfair to declare Marshall's first-place victory as a victory of the establishment (the state establishment, maybe).

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

    [ Parent ]
    I agree with you
    Neither Marshall or Cunningham can really be called the establishment candidate.  Neither can be called the anti-establishment candidate, either.

    40, male, Democrat, NC-04
    [ Parent ]
    I agree
    There wasn't clear anti-establishment candidate here. But in such case "establishment" wins by definition, isn't it?)))))
    [ Parent ]
    PA-12
    As I have stated before, the PA-12 race is really going to come down to turnout.  The higher the turnout, the better for the Republicans as they need an electorate that is like the one that went for McCain in 2008.  The lower the turnout, the better for the Democrats as they need an electorate that is like the one that went for the Democratic judicial slate in 2009 when the rest of the state pretty much went Republican.  The fly by night style pollsters of this race are providing few details so we cannot tell if the electorate they are polling resembles that of 2008 or that of 2009.

    The good thing for the Democrats though is that they have a highly contested state representative race in the most Democratic part of the district, Greene County and the western portion of Fayette County.  Localized turnout might be very heavy in this district, which would be great for the Democrats seeing the registration advantage in PA HR-50 is 3 to 1 Democratic.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7

    Goode a member of the "Constitution Party"
     It is interesting to see that Goode is joining the Constitution Party. From what I have read about him, Goode is not too friendly to the Hispanics and Muslims, I wonder if he is familiar with the 14th Amendment. I may be wrong but Goode does not strike me as the kind of guy who supports the 1st Amendment. I wonder if the Constitution Party is just another name for a party that views the 2nd Amendment as the whole Constitution?

    for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




    17, CA-06,  

    2nd Amendment and Constitution Party types
    Actually their right to own firearms does not derive from the 2nd Amendment for some of these nutcases.  I had one of these weirdos tell me that the 2nd Amendment is too restrictive and they have to rely on their inherent right to self-defense as a basis of owning firearms.  Even the 2nd Amendment is too limited for these people as even the more conservative justices on the court admit firearms ownership is not absolute.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
    [ Parent ]
    Obey quits
    It is over
    If Obey cannot hold on in a D+3 district, Pelosi will not be Speaker in 2011.

    23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
    [ Parent ]
    Oh come on
    He obviously just doesn't want the hassle of running a competitive race. Obama 56-43, Kerry 50-49, Gore 48-47 equals tossup.
    [ Parent ]
    does he have a strong challenger?

    [ Parent ]
    Apparently
    Sean Duffy, who's Ashland County DA, has shown strong fundraising.
    [ Parent ]
    Well, it certainly makes things more difficult
    Another district where we'll have to unexpectedly fight it out.  Hopefully, there's a strong candidate who can take his place.
    [ Parent ]
    Is Ryan the new Tek?

    [ Parent ]
    The artist formally known as Tek? eom

    [ Parent ]
    We'd better hold onto at least one of HI-01 or PA-12
    or else I'm going to start finding myself talking like Tekzilla...

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04...
    As for Obey, this bit from a couple of weeks back was an early sign. Others cited in the article as D incumbents who should be concerned are John Spratt (SC-05), Ike Skelton (I don't know, MO), and Earl Pomeroy (ND-AL).

    Have they all declared their intent to run? I think Spratt has, but don't remember the others.

    [ Parent ]
    Spratt and Pomeroy have
    Don't know about Skelton.
    [ Parent ]
    They've all filed
    As far as I know. Agree on the specials. Been saying for months that losing them both means late exits. Lots of states still open.
    [ Parent ]
    wow, dave obey is retiring
    Unless this is health related
    I am getting sick of these cowards. Still, D+3 is no lost cause.
    [ Parent ]
    as the chairman of the appropriations committee
    he must have a good reason to give that job up.  i hope it's not a health-related reason, but i agree that anything other than that will sound kinda lame.
    [ Parent ]
    A real shame
    A good man.  I don't know if seeing Dan Rostenkowki go down in '94 played a role in his decision, but he certainly let his party down.  Anyone know the bench in this NW Wisconsin district?
    [ Parent ]
    Rostenkowski went down because he was corrupt.
    I don't think David Obey has been credibly accused of corruption.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  
    [ Parent ]
    Obey retiring is crushing emotionally, at least for me......
    Ugh, that's not the kind of retirement I like to see, especially this late in the cycle.

    And to think, I was letting myself get my hopes up that maybe we were turning the tide and on the way to mitigating losses?

    Maybe we still are, but being a daily obsessive junkie leaves me making too much emotionally of every high and low, even though my head says just watch the longer term trend.

    43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

    Some perspective
    As it stands now, the number of open Democratic House seats - due to retirement, resignation, and sadly death - is exactly even to the number of open Republican seats. (In fact, the GOP has one up on us if we count FL-21). Granted, a lot of those Republican districts are going to be totally impenetrable this year, and about a dozen of their retiring incumbents are seeking higher office, but it should still somewhat dispel the myth that House Democrats are disproportionately running for the exits.

    Male, 23, DC-At Large
    [ Parent ]
    The Democrats still have yet to make their case to the voters
    Everyone knows where the GOP stands and their opinion, but the Democrats have done a terrible job of controlling the narrative and have thus, been trounced in presenting their side of the story.  The election will give them that chance, maybe they'll be able to save a handful of House seats or something by then.
    [ Parent ]
    NY-Sen: Orange County exec. to challenge Gillibrand
    http://capitaltonight.com/2010...

    I think the only potential contender who hasn't decided is fmr. State Sen. Michael Balboni. There have been rumblings that Cornyn's been trying to recruit fmr. Massachusetts Gov. William Weld to give it go (hence, Cornyn's recent statements on Gilly), but that seems pretty doubtful.

    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    SSP Daily Digest: 5/5 (Morning Edition) | 64 comments

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