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FL-05: Ginny Brown-Waite Retires, Endorses Nugent

by: James L.

Fri Apr 30, 2010 at 12:31 PM EDT


It's for real, this time:

Congresswoman Ginny Brown-Waite, R-Brooksville, is abandoning her re-election bid.

"As I have prepared for my campaign, I have been troubled by persistent health problems and have come to the disappointing and sad conclusion that I cannot run for reelection. There are simply too many unresolved issues around my health and my pancreas in particular. As of this morning, my doctors are still undecided about what course to pursue next for my treatments."

Brown-Wait immediately backed Hernando County Sheriff Ted Richard Nugent.

"I encouraged Sheriff Nugent to run because I know him to be a strong conservative who will continue my fight for veterans and seniors.  This past week Rich told me he would stand in my place for election to Congress.  On Monday I will to ask the Secretary of State to withdraw my name from the ballot.

You may recall that Brown-Waite teased the world with hints that she would retire back in February, only to announce instead that she was getting married. Though this seat has been held by Democrats in friendlier configurations, I wouldn't expect a competitive race here -- Obama lost the district by a 56-43 margin in 2008.

UPDATE: I neglected to mention that today is the filing deadline for Florida, so this looks like it was timed well in advance to give The Nuge a clear field in the primary (and probably the general, as well).

LATER UPDATE: Ah, crikey. The St. Pete Times incorrectly identified Hernando County Sheriff Richard Nugent as Ted Nugent. Words cannot express how disappointed I am right now.
James L. :: FL-05: Ginny Brown-Waite Retires, Endorses Nugent
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FL-05: Ginny Brown-Waite Retires, Endorses Nugent | 45 comments
FL
We need to compete here, who do we have?

29/D/Male/NY-01
Not Annette Taddeo any more
[ Parent ]
I thought she was down over in FL-18 anyway
So we really have no one here?

This really sucks.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
It's not a good district

They gerrymandered it out from under Karen Thurman, cutting out Gainesville.  It's one of those rural and small and middle sized town Deep Southern districts that will- at very best- support a Blue Dog.

I don't think we're adding any Blue Dogs this election.  If anything, we're losing a bunch of them.

[ Parent ]
across the state AND south
wrong district
[ Parent ]
Crap
[ Parent ]
I saw your headline and thought this a joke, reminding me of...
...a MyDD front-page diary on April Fool's Day teasing that Senator Bill Nelson was flipping to independent and caucusing with the GOP.

But lo and behold, there's really a conservative Republican candidate for Congress named Ted Nugent!

That makes me ill.  I can only hope this guy at least has a saner temperament than the whackjob rocker from Michigan and thus redeems the name.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

I was snookered too
I seem to remember this being low on my list in 2006. Not that it actually ended up competitive but I must have got it somewhere.
[ Parent ]
Enough health for marriage and not enough for running for office???
Well, that's .... strange. I always thought that the former requires much better health and much greater strength that the latter)))
Not THAT Ted Nugent
Haha
Yeah, I thought for a second that Ted Nugent was running too after looking at the title.
[ Parent ]
brown waite pulls a bayh-bayh
hoping this phrase for jumping at the last second to help your party catches on.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
One big difference
Brown-Waite's last minute decision helps her party, while Bayh's almost hurt them dearly (if Dippolito had gotten the required signatures.) My guess is Ginny planned this move with the state GOP to keep strong Dems out of the race.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
[ Parent ]
Everything worked out so seamlessly
I bet the whole thing was planned as well.  It was pretty clear from the get-go she wouldnt have the signatures, even if she said she would.
[ Parent ]
Really?
You don't think that Mike Pence or Mitch Daniels would have been much stronger candidate for the GOP than Coats, Hosttetler or the other guy?

Bayh's last minute ditch was a HUGE favor to the Dems. If he retired earlier there would be much stronger GOP candidates in the race and a potential Dem primary between Dem Congressman (Hill vs Ellsworth) that could have caused more open Dem house seats to denfend.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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[ Parent ]
Yeah, plus I think D'Ippolito is insane.
After she was unable to get the signatures, she blamed the state party for sabotaging her.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
,,,when it was obvious that it was all her fault.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
I think Daniels would have run if he wanted to.
Bayh gave him 36 hours, and the man ran 2 successful gubernatorial campaigns. I bet he had the network of support to get 500 signatures in each district in that time frame. I think Daniels declined because he doesn't envision a future in the Senate.

Pence would have had a tougher go of it because he isn't as well connected outside his district, but he had already passed on the race once, and I think that the only reason he would leave his House leadership position would be to run for president.

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
I agree not about this resignation help to the GOP

I think this resignation of Brown-Waite help not to the GOP. I think only help to Brown-Waite's protegé. Not only the dems have not time for reaction, the more prominent republicans in the district lose the option of run. For example:

- Mike Fasano: President pro-tempore of the Florida senate.

- Paula Dockery: Majority whip of the Florida senate. Running for governor.

- Carey Baker: State senator running for Commissioner of Agrigultire until withdraw.

Surely this resignation make more difference in the republican side of this race than in the democratic side, because democrats have lower level options.

[ Parent ]
It's not a resignation, it's a retirement
and honestly, in this district, in this year, I think the Democrats wouldn't really have a chance anyway. (Hell, they left FL-21 uncontested...)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
True, sorry, is a retirement, you are right

The district is not favorable, I agree, is a R+9 district, but I think other districts what we are looking are not much better:

FL-12 R+6
FL-25 R+5
SC-02 R+9
KS-04 R+14
NE-02 R+6
CA-03 R+6

Since this point FL-05 can be one more. Maybe finally Democratic Party can not win no-one of they.

Until now, I think Nugent can be the Brown-Waite protegé but sure he is not the strongest candidate what republicans can recruit in this district. In the first moment, Im not impressed for see a county sheriff running for the House in a district with many counties. And my doubts increases when I see a candidate what raise nothing at April 30.

I see no-one data what make me think this Nugent will be stronger than the republican frontrunners of these districts, some of they, incumbents. Maybe he become stronger than Wilson or Lungren, but still they are not evidences.

If republicans give the chance of an open seat with weak candidates, why not? I think FL-05 can be a district for look. They are some little details what are not bad for dems.

[ Parent ]
this district
has a lot of conservative senior citizens. While East Coast transplants in FL-19 may not feel this way, I have a feeling that FL-05 would probably react negatively to HCR.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
R+9 in a bad year
If it is R+9 in a bad year and already held by a Republican, write it off.

23, male, center-right cynical Republican, PA-7
[ Parent ]
It's an open seat, though
n/t

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
PVI is always relative
(as well as adjusted for homestate effects and averaged over the past two elections) so we could have an election, say, where the republican crushes the democrat nationwide (even twice in a row, if you like) and a D+1 district would still be quite swingy.

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets
[ Parent ]
What a piece of crap
Retire at the last moment so no decent Dem can step in.
Are there "decent Democrats" in this district?
I can't remember a single one.
[ Parent ]
former state sen rod smith
would win this district in an even year.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Thanks!
But one thing is lacking - "an even year".
[ Parent ]
Damn right.
Also Florida Democratic Party Chair Karen Thurman, who narrowly lost this district to Brown-Waite in 2002.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Looking at the state of Florida Democratic Party
under her chairmanship (slightly more then 1/3 of seats in both chambers of lefislature) - i have at least some doubts.
[ Parent ]
As well you should
I also think it's hard to run in a swing state after you've been in such a heavily partisan position such as party chair.  I was just brainstorming for big names from the area.

And looking at the map, Rod Smith is probably more of a 6th district kind of guy, so maybe cross him off too.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
To be fair
Sue Lowden would probably be on the road to senatorhood if she understood the difference between the real world and Oregon Trail.

but isn't Karen Thurman getting up there in age?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
Florida is terribly gerrymandered.

[ Parent ]
Not just Dems
this will basically be an uncontested seat. This monarchic kind of anointing a successor is disgusting when it happens, regardless of party.
[ Parent ]
ActBlue suggests we have two candidates
I do not know if they're more than just two x "some dude"

Tom Doolan - http://www.doolanforcongress.com/
Jim Piccillo - http://www.jimpiccillo.com/

Piccillo just posted on dailykos
Check it out: http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Piccillo can be a viable candidate? If Im not wrong he is the alone democrat for FL-05.

I think FL-05 is now the republican open seat with lower level group of republican candidates. Still they have no-one with decent level, and no-one fundraising good.

Nugent can be the candidate of the stablisment, but sometimes this is not the same than a strong candidate. For show strength, first he must become a good fundraiser and/or become strong in some poll. While I see not that, I look to this race like a so good option.

In this moment, Piccillo is one of few democrats with fundraising advantage for a republican seat, with A Bera for CA-03, R Goyle for KS-04, and D Pike for PA-06.

[ Parent ]
Piccillo's fundraising advantage
It should hold for approximately seven milliseconds, before Nugent is deluged with party support
[ Parent ]
True, if Piccillo has not Democratic Party support

But if he has support?

FL-05 R+9 Piccillo: $59K advantage at April 30.

Taking the same districts than in a previous comment in this article, after the first quarter of 2010 we have:

FL-12 R+6 Edwards: $375K disadvantage
FL-25 R+5 Garcia: $702K disadvantage
SC-02 R+9 Miller: $1469K disadvantage
KS-04 R+14 Goyle: $350K advantage
NE-02 R+6 White: $463K disadvantage
CA-03 R+6 Bera: $304K advantage

Now, they are only five R+ districts without democratic incumbent today with democratic advantage fundraising:

KS-04 R+14 $350K
CA-03 R+6 $304K
LA-03 R+12 $137K
FL-05 R+9 $59K
MD-06 R+13 $21K


[ Parent ]
So?
What makes that a remotely important or predictive index?
[ Parent ]
Eric Massa claimed his retirement was due to health reasons
just sayin'

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
actually, his *resignation*
big difference.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Her husband died of pancreatic cancer.
Let's hope she doesn't have it too. Cruel twist of fate.
Aren't there a couple of places where
the filing deadline for incumbents is a few days earlier than for challengers? So that this kind of stunt can't be pulled off as easily?
FL-05: Ginny Brown-Waite Retires, Endorses Nugent | 45 comments

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