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IN-Sen, IN-03: Coats Leads, Souder Vulnerable

by: James L.

Thu Apr 29, 2010 at 8:49 PM EDT


SurveyUSA for the Mike Downs Center For Indiana Politics (4/22-26, likely voters):

Dan Coats (R): 36
John Hostettler (R): 24
Marlin Stutzman (R): 18
Don Bates (R): 6
Richard Behney (R): 4
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±5%)

A conservative split between Hostettler and a surprisingly potent Stutzman seems to be giving Coats a path to victory, even with an underwhelming level of primary support. In the general, though, Coats starts the race off as the GOP's strongest choice:

Brad Ellsworth (D): 31
Dan Coats (R): 47
Undecided: 22

Brad Ellsworth (D): 32
John Hostettler (R): 45
Undecided: 23

Brad Ellsworth (D): 35
Marlin Stutzman (R): 41
Undecided: 25
(MoE: ±2.8%)

The DSCC managed to produce a clean hit on Coats on what seemed like a daily basis immediately after his entry into this race, and I hope they have a few chestnuts ready to go after the primary is done.

Meanwhile, SUSA also took a look at the IN-03 GOP primary, and the results are not pretty for incumbent Mark Souder:

Mark Souder (R-inc): 35
Bob Thomas (R): 29
Phil Troyer (R): 19
Greg Dickman (R): 2
Undecided: 16
(MoE: ±5%)

Souder, one of the lesser lights of a state delegation dominated by Republican deadwood, has been somewhat notorious over the past two cycles for dramatically under-performing his district's Republican tilt. It looks like a primary loss is a live possibility at this point, with self-funding auto dealer Bob Thomas nipping on Souder's corn-encrusted heels. Mark this one down on your calendars as another fun primary to watch.

The full polling memo for the Senate race is available below the fold.
James L. :: IN-Sen, IN-03: Coats Leads, Souder Vulnerable
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IN-Sen, IN-03: Coats Leads, Souder Vulnerable | 28 comments
If Hostettler
Cannot even lead with tea party members, he must be in trouble.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

And Erick Erickson is obsessively backing Stutzman.
So much so that his own corral is annoyed.

Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
This has been so low key
And I have no idea what's going to happen.  With probably very low turnout, and no one candidate even close to "catching fire," anything could happen with the leading three candidates.  I actually think Stutzman would be the hardest to beat, as he doesn't have the serious flaws that Coats or the Ho' has -- and with time to raise money and unite the R's behind him, he'd scare me the most.  But he's most likely going to still come in 3rd.

I'm still not sure who I'd rather have Ellsworth go up agaisnt.  The whole situation is a bit too fluid to say anything definate, especailly since Ellsworth is going to have a big $$ advantage once he really gets started.

Me too
On Stutzman. The only reason I still support Coats is that I am worried about Stutzman's ability to raise the money for the general. If I knew he could raise the money, I would support him.
[ Parent ]
Time is against him, too
I think he'd have a much better chance if this was a June or July primary, and not next week -- and there was more time to really expose the serious weaknesses of the two better known candidates.
[ Parent ]
Why is Ellsworth so far down?
When he announced he was running everyone was so happy saying this was a great chance to hold on to the seat with a moderate Democrat running but now he's down double digits to every Republican. What's the deal? Is it just name ID?
Yup
Generic D vs. Generic R (exception for Coats)

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
Not a bad spot to be in.
Rather there as a nobody, then as a somebody (just ask Harry Reid). Ellsworth is going to do well in this race.
[ Parent ]
Name ID
Ellsworth just represents one-ninth of the state. It is not that surprising to me at all. Once he becomes more than generic D, I would expect his numbers to rise.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
IN
I understand that arguement against Coats, but surely Ellsworth has higher name rec than Hostetler and Sturtzman?

29/D/Male/NY-01
[ Parent ]
Because
no one knows about the candidates, so it's pretty much generic D VS. R. And R is leading slightly now.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Notice
one thing if you will please. Coats is under 50, that is important. Coats has fairly good name ID, and is the Republican candidate in a fairly conservative state. In all reality most people know Coats as the former Senator, but not of his recent lobbying work, once that becomes common knowledge, I would expect a greater swing towards Ellsworth. Coats writes the ads for us. Don't take the GE match ups for much, my gosh Ellsworth represents only one-ninth of the state and like I said most people know who Coats is. Ellsworth is the dream candidate. He is running as a Washington outsider, despite being a sitting Congressman. If you go to his website he barely mentions his tenure in Congress, but drones on and on about his service as sheriff. The opening pic is of him in his sheriff's outfit by his squad car. In some respects Ellsworth is farther to the right than Coats. Don't stress too much we will still win this race. I will admit I am surprised Coats is doing so well, but in all reality none of the other candidate was able to get their names out there, and are slipping the conservative vote. I know many teabaggers (again, they call themselves this to me) who will not show up for Coats.

As for Souder, I can't say I'm all together that surprised. I think the primary is definitely a tossup. No one really likes Souder in either party, and I can't say I blame them at all. Souder is an absolutely horrible Congressman. I would go as far to say I would rather have (gasp!) Mike Sodrel as my Congressman than him.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

What hoosierdem said -- except for the Mike Sodrel part :)

[ Parent ]
Yeah
I did shudder a little bit when I wrote that. Still I think Sodrel is at least SLIGHTLY better than Souder. I'm surprised they didn't poll the ninth; I think Hankins will do better than most expect him to do. Speaking of which, I just found out that we have a LaRouchie challenging Hill for the primary on a platform of impeaching Obama.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
SE Indiana can alwasy be counted on to bring the crazy!!!!!!

[ Parent ]
Awww, I thought it was San Francisco!
We got Cindy Sheehan running in CA-08...again!

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Totally different kind of crazy.
Well ....  come to think of it, crazy is crazy, just manifests itself in different ways!
[ Parent ]
True lol.
I was just thinking that since California has a very outsized influence in the economic, cultural, and political departments, it ought to have an outsized influence in the crazy department as well. :P

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
I read that about the LaRouchite primary challenger the other day
Was reading about the primary candidates in the local paper and got to that. I laughed.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
In what respects is Ellsworth to the right of Coats?
Stuff on the NRA's agenda, perhaps? Anything else? I remember Coats as being in most respects quite right wing and fairly strident. I really did not like him and felt that Lugar contrasted with him greatly, as someone who is quite conservative but more reasonable and measured in tone.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Only with guns is Ellsworth to the right of Coats.


Ad hoc, ad loc and quid pro quo!
So little time, so much to know!
[ Parent ]
Yeah
I over exaggerated a lot there. Ellsworth isn't more conservative than Coats by any means, except for guns. Your right, Coats is a fairly reliable conservative. I shouldn't have worded that way.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Still think Coats is the best of those three GOP-ers
I mean, how many political losers are there out there, as lame as Hostettler, who made triumphant comebacks (in a huge step-up from their previous position, no less) within five years later? This is John Hostettler we're talking about; one of the most loser-y politicians of the last decade. At least Coats was around in the Senate for about a decade and left his position gracefully (as in, didn't run for re-election and lose by 18%, like Hostettler).

I think Stuzman would be better than Hostettler, not as competitive as Coats. No matter what, though, Ellsworth's in trouble if Generic GOP is defeating Generic Dem here by about 10 points. I suspect this is probably Lean GOP. It'd be Likely GOP if the right's field weren't so flawed.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Very disappointing
that they didn't poll GE matchups in IN-03.  As of now, there is no general election polling of that race at all, despite Hayhurst's strong performance in 2006 and the snake pit that is the Republican primary right now.  I'd like to know, for instance, how carpetbagger Thomas is doing against Hayhurst, or whether people still prefer Souder by large margins to the town doctor who's leading him in fundraising (by $70,000 CoH last report).

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
In a related story
Real link:
[ Parent ]
Not a good move
Why wait two years? Probably helps Thomas make his case for a change. I wonder if Hayhurst has more of a shot in an open seat.

Decent numbers for Ellsworth seen as though nobody knows who he is. And he is far from generic Dem which is a good thing here.

[ Parent ]
I doubt Hayhurst has any shot in an open seat
This is a Bill Sali-style race -- the only reason a Dem has any chance in this R+14 district is that people hate Souder so much.  I actually think that if Thomas wins the GOP primary, even though he's got some issues of his own involving being a carpetbagger, he'll cruise to victory in the general.  Hayhurst's only chance is facing a bloodied and penniless ad retiring Souder in the general (the article I linked above indicates that Souder's already spent $400k in the primary, all of it presumably on attack ads against Thomas).

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
IN-Sen, IN-03: Coats Leads, Souder Vulnerable | 28 comments

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