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FL-Sen: Crist Will Run as an Independent

by: James L.

Thu Apr 29, 2010 at 6:01 PM EDT


It's Independence Day for Charlie Crist:

Gov. Charlie Crist just announced to a hometown crowd that he will run for the U.S. Senate as an independent.

"My decision to run for the United States as a candidate without party affiliation in may way says more about our nation and our state than it does about me" Crist said to crowd at Straub Park, not far from his condominium, his mother, father, wife and sisters at his side.

Crist's careful wording seemed to leave open that he would remain a Republican in party but run as an independent. "I know this is uncharted territory ... and I am aware after this ends I don't have either party helping me. ... But I'm counting on you. I think we need a new tone in Washington. I know we're doing the right thing."

Over at the Washington Post, Chris Cillizza has a list of pertinent questions that will need to be answered soon. Most (or at least, many) of Crist's staffers are expected to resign en masse, and it remains completely unclear from what source Crist plans to hire his staffers and consultants. Surely, any Republican firm will want to steer clear of Crist like he's a toxic waste spill, but perhaps some Democrats could be convinced to join his team. (And, in doing so, would they themselves become pariahs in the eyes of the DSCC, who hope to see Kendrick Meek squeak out a win?)

It's also totally unclear how Crist plans to fund his campaign. Sure, the man has $7.5M in the bank -- a very good head start -- but he should probably expect to have to refund a big chunk of that coin. John Cornyn and the NRSC are already on record as saying that they'll demand their donations back. Crist probably won't see his donations from his usual sources dry up completely, but it's been clear ever since we saw the first quarter fundraising reports that the GOP money muscle is firmly behind Rubio after Crist got off to a furious start last year.

Needless to say, this is shaping up to be one of the most remarkable races of the cycle.

UPDATE: Crist's polling firm, Public Opinion Strategies, has announced that they will be severing ties with his campaign.

UPDATE: With Crist setting up a volatile three-way race, SSP is changing our rating of this race from "Likely Republican" to "Tossup".
James L. :: FL-Sen: Crist Will Run as an Independent
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FL-Sen: Crist Will Run as an Independent | 69 comments
The key question
is who is he gonna caucus with if he's elected?

Now, Kendrick Meek needs to get a lawn sign in front of every Florida house he can. These are exciting times!

überliberal Democrat, male, OH-12 (college), NJ-09 ("home"), Mets, Jets

I would guess
that he would caucus with whoever's in the majority; more perks that way.
[ Parent ]
So the next question is
But will he actually say that?

After all, he already seems unprincipled, why not put that reputation to good use for Florida?

I'm about half-joking on that.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Eh, from the perspective of an Independent
it makes a certain amount of sense, given that he's clearly going to be positioning himself as someone who'll work with both parties to get results.  Independents have to throw their lot in with one of the two in order to get anything under the way Congress is organized, so it'd probably be bad representation to choose the less effective way of representing the state (particularly since, see Ben Nelson, caucus affiliation usually doesn't stop you from doing whatever you want).

One suspects he'll simply say he'll work with all sides.

[ Parent ]
He just killed his career
Can't say I'm too upset about it.
I've been feeling better about the Senate lately
A few months ago I would have counted Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, and Arkansas as lost causes and Ohio as a lean R. But if Meek runs a good campaign in Florida, Hayworth beats McCain in Arizona, Burr's approvals continue to dip, Lowden keeps acting like an idiot, and Halter beats Lincoln, we're looking at some very good opportunities in addition to New Hampshire and Missouri. And I think it's quite clear that Ohio should be counted as a Tilt Dem after the recent polls, regardless of Portman's monetary advantage.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
This
race will all come down to who ends up supporting Crist. Will it be moderates who usually vote for the Dems or moderates who usually vote for the GOP. Unfortunately I see Crist winning those who consider themselves to be "true" independents without a clear partisan voting record and Independents who normally vote Democrat.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
In his speech
 Crist kept talking about protecting Floridians from offshore drilling (although with this spill, I do not see many Floridians disagreeing with him) and he also mentioned education as a big priority. It looks like Crist is definitely tilting to the left. I was hoping he would try to get votes from Rubio but if he keeps turning to the left, he will go for Meek's votes.

As for Crist electorally, I see him doing well in the I-4 corridor and the counties just to the north of Tampa (Pasco, Hernando, etc.) because they seem to be swingy and have some moderates.

I do not see Crist picking up Hispanics because he tied with Davis with Hispanics in 2006 and of course, Rubio is Hispanic but there is some animosity towards Cubins throughout the other Florida Hispanics.

Also, Crist probably will not gain too many votes in the area near Pensacola but he may pick up those moderates who sometimes vote Democratic for statewide candidates near Tallahassee. They are in teabagger country and should support Rubio unless...they decide his background is not the background of a person they will support.

I could go on about my opinions here but this will eventually turn into a diary so I will stop analyzing key areas now. Perhaps I will do a diary on Florida with Crist soon.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Well, it's time for Meek
to introduce himself. The only way Crist can win is if he gets considerable Democratic support. So it's important to prevent that from happening.

In a 3-way race like this, my sense is that Meek should tie himself to the President and other popular Democrats, and project an image of plausibility. If he can stabilize himself around 45%, he'll win.  

Most
likely I think the winner will end up getting a maximum of 40% instead of 45% which seems to high  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
The
reverse Obama hug add. Meek can put up an advertisement with Crist hugging some conservative (Bush?) or attending a tea party.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Sestak is running ads with Specter hugging Bush.
It hasn't wroked so far.
[ Parent ]
That's because President Obama has been enthusiastically supporting Specter
Not to mention the assist he's been getting from the DSCC, the DNC, and the Pennsylvania Democratic party.

Obama, the Florida and National Democratic parties are sure as hell not going to be giving Charlie any of those things (in fact, it wouldn't surprise me to see Obama cut an ad with Meek and against Crist).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Bush
I think the days of Bush being an effective Boogeyman for us are pretty much over.

29/D/Male/NY-01
[ Parent ]
I
think it would still work somewhat with the base, so limiting the number of Democrat Crist votes. The biggest negative it that it could turn off moderates and independents. Although maybe it would give Crist some Republican votes. So it's definitely a bit of a risk.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Not in Democratic Primaries

[ Parent ]
Bush will be an effective boogeyman for years
like Nixon.  Mentioning Bush won't make someone run out and devote their lives to something, but for the forseeable future it will produce and "ick" in most voters stomachs.
[ Parent ]
This picture may work
http://blogs.tampabay.com/phot...


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Yes!
I love it!

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Indeed
That's one half of a Meek ad. The other half is Meek with both Clintons and the President.  
[ Parent ]
That outfit probably cost $3,000 at Neiman-Marcus
Hers, too.
[ Parent ]
What
a fall! Not that sorry for him though. I'm still not sure if this is a good thing for us or not. Meh, I do at least know it will be fun to watch.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
BTW, if anyone has some loose change
this is a great time to throw some Kendrick Meek's way IMO.  
Crist's switch means he'll be very down ballot
http://politicalticker.blogs.c...

Gov. Charlie Crist's decision announcement Thursday that he will run for Senate as an unaffiliated candidate means that his name will be placed beneath at least eight others on Florida's general election ballot in November.

Could definitely make a difference in a close race.  For comparison anyone know where Lieberman's name was?

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


In Siberia
If voters are looking for Crist, they'll find him.
[ Parent ]
Its the undecided voters that matter
Even in high profile races ballot placement can make a difference.  In a three way race like this a person torn between Meek and Crist or Rubio or Crist could make up their mind based on who they see first.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Hmm...
The winner of the Republican primary will receive top billing, followed by the winner of the Democratic primary.

Does the Republican candidate always get placed first?

If that's true, it looks extremely crooked.

http://mypolitikal.com/

[ Parent ]
The way it works is the Governor's Party gets top billing
http://www.charleshogshead.com...

Kinda ironic here...

The law was actually put in place by Democrats I think.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Then
Does Crist go at the top?  
[ Parent ]
Because Crist was elected as a Republican Rubio gets the top it would seem
Very ironic for Crist...

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Don't think that this affects Meeks chances much at this point
Polls have generally shown Meek behind Rubio, generally from high single digits to mid double digits, and being a little close to Crist as a Republican. For the threeways, Meek is almost always in 3rd place and Rubio in first with double digits separating Rubio and Meek and Crist in second in low to high single digits of Rubio.

I guess an Indy's Crist's main constituency would be independent voters but I think there is little chance of him getting votes from even moderate Republicans. Rather Crist needs to take a significant amount of Democratic voters in addition to a plurality of independents in order to win, and as I said before, I believe that Democrats are significantly more likely to to Crist than Republicans are.

Meek has done a surprisingly good job so far but he is way too low profile, he is going to need to up his profile significantly in order to prevent Rubio from taking too much of the Democratic vote. In particular he needs to get out of third place in the polls or national Dems are just going to ignore him because in a tough year u try to hold defense rather than go on offense.

Great news
Not that this comes as much of a surprise, but I suspect that there's a lot of personal animosity between Crist and Rubio; I think that Crist thought he was entitled to the seat, and Rubio took it away.

My point is that I think has the personal and political incentive to go after Rubio; the political incentive is to get back a portion of the GOP electorate that supported him previously.

At this point, it's a pure tossup, but I feel very optimistic about Meek's chances right now.

Fascinating.

I'm going out and buying some Pop Secret.  

NY-14, DC-AL (college) Distraught Mets fan

Will Crist run
as the nominee of the Connecticut for Lieberman Party?
This will not be a popular opinion here but...
... IMO this country sorely needs a centrist political party. I would not be disappointed if Crist manages to win

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
We need a Leftist party.
The Center allready has the Democratic party.  

CO-02 (college)/FL-15 (home).  
[ Parent ]
Green Party
[ Parent ]
Crist
is not that independent. He seems like a fairly reliable conservative. He did support the stimulus, and I will give him that, but the teacher's thing was pure politics. Crist will not be that much of a centrist if he gets elected. I'm not necessarily saying I disagree with you, but I don't think Crist is a likely leader of a centrist party.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Hold that thought until...
after the UK elections.
[ Parent ]
Agree
I agree with you 100% about the need for a centrist party. There are many times where I feel the Democratic Party has left me and my fellow rural, Southern Conservative Democrats.

However, when I start looking at it I certainly would not feel at home on in the GOP. The social views pushed by the liberal wing of the Democratic Party bother me just as much as the fiscal views of the far right within the GOP.

The only problem (and hoosierdem in a way alluded to this) would be a true definition of a centrist platform and a centrist leader.

I couldn't imagine a room full of us trying to draft a platform that we'd all be content with.

[ Parent ]
The Democratic Party certainly has left you
We are a much much different party then we were when the rural South supported us en masse.  But I mean, the Republican party left New Englanders; it's all simple re-alignment of the parties.
[ Parent ]
The Republican Party has fled Californians en masse also.
And frankly, once having been a member myself, I won't miss them one bit.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Nah, it's still a center-left party
Sure there is a significant element of the intolerant left of the party that is foolish enough to froth about the right 15% of the party, but these people are not close to the majority of the party.

In contrast, the majority of the Republican party does aggressively want to eject the left 15% of its members.

Still a big difference between the two... and more importantly, that 30% of the center don't see eye to eye on most issues.  Blue Dogs and Rockefeller Reps would rip each other to shreds on 60% of the issues.

[ Parent ]
Um
My views on issues like race are NOT in line with the South at that time, let's clear that up right away.

Also, I'm a fiscal populist, most of the Southerners back then were staunch conservatives, at least in Georgia. Big difference there, though I guess if you applied it to present day maybe it'd be compatible.

Conservative Democrats still believe in the notion of government having a role in the economy. We just think the Democrats want too much, the while the Republicans would prefer no government whatsoever.

Anyway, I'm going way off subject, probably best to stop here!

Thanks for the discussion though.

[ Parent ]
You
know, you really remind me of my father. He is about as conservative as Democrats come. He is far to the right on all social, environmental, and gun issues, but still votes Democrat in every election (minus some local ones). I am definitely MUCH MORE liberal than he is. I actually just talked to him a couple of weeks ago, and asked him why he's still a Democrat, and he replied it's the economy stupid! I think at the end of day economic issues will always out trump all others. It is the reason there are so many pro-life Democrats, and pro-choice Republicans.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Exactly
Economic issues are really the reason.

I think it's because it's a lot easier to ignore the social platform than the fiscal platform.

[ Parent ]
Plus
economic issues come up far more often than social issues in bills anyway.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Cook
has now moved Florida to a tossup. May I assume SSP will do the same?  

http://www.cookpolitical.com/c...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

Y'know, Every time I look at Cook's rating changes I get angry.
It needs to end sometime.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
Great!
Thanks.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Thanks
Thanks for that link!
[ Parent ]
No problem


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I hope Meek wins but I can live with Crist if he wins
      Although I still think unfortunately Rubio is still the favorite, but since it's a three way race anything can happen. God it's amazing how fast things can change in politics. Two years ago Crist was the kingmaker who helped Mccain get the nomination in Florida. Now, if he doesn't win this his career is over. I do think he made a mistake running for the senate instead of reelection for governor. His approval ratings went down, but compared to some other governors he was still reasonably popular. Although I wonder if Rubio would have challenged him in a primary for that as well.  
I can live with Crist
because he'll have stopped Rubio then.  Rubio cannot win this race, too much potential that will come back to bite us in the ass and could hurt our long-term dominance with Latino voters.  He's dangerous to the Democratic Party and this is our shot now to shut it down.
[ Parent ]
Rubio was in before Crist
Not many people remember, but Rubio was in the Senate race before Crist.  The RNSC recruited Crist because the environment did not look as good for Republicans and Crist was really popular.  Of course, conservatives were already excited about Rubio.

This article is a pretty good summation of why Crist picking the fight with Rubio was a bad, divisive move for the FL GOP.

So Rubio would not have challenged Crist.  In fact, Crist for GOV and Rubio for SEN would have been a rather formidable duo in Florida.  A moderate and a conservative Hispanic in FL in this environment could have led to duel landslides.

But most importantly, this was not a case of a conservative challenging an incumbent (i.e. Sen. Bennett), but rather a popular moderate challenging a conservative already in the race.  Crist picked the fight, and he lost.

[ Parent ]
Meek
Meek just does not impress me. Most people, even the pundits on TV, still cannot get his name right.

He's either got an amazing grassroots organization that no one outside of FL knows of, or he's simply not catching on with anyone.

Yes, he's got the support of President Clinton, which brings a lot.

However, if Clinton didn't come out early on with the fundraiser, would Meek really be taken credibly?

I know Wasserman-Schultz is very liberal, but I'd consider her stronger than Meek, even statewide. Boyd might be too conservative for a Democrat statewide, but I think he'd do better as well.

Am I the only one who feels this way?

Meek has been in the race for months now, and he's yet to really do anything (that I know of).

With Crist now running as an Indy, it just seems to me that Meek will end up in third.

Meek,
or Meeks as some like to know him, will not come in third. I really think Crist, more than likely, will come in third. I think Crist will not do that well with Democrats, and will obviously not do well with Republicans. I can't see him squeaking out of third. It is too late to replace Meek; however Meek did stick in the race when almost everyone considered Crist Senator-elect. Meek was the only one who had the courage to enter this race, and I respect him for it.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Good Point
I respect Meek for jumping in when he did as well. At the time it seemed like Senator Crist was basically a given. This is just one of those rare circumstances where things completely change and we now have a chance to win a race, but it's going to be different with a lackluster candidate.
[ Parent ]
I certainly agree
but it seems like it's too late now.  Meek has gotten a ton of support already and I doubt the Clintons would be embarrassed like that.  And in an article someone posted yesterday, the writer mentioned that the WH planned to go all out for Meek in the case of a three-way race.

Id guess at least at first.  If he doesnt improve (his three-way numbers aren't that great) then they'd probably not spend energy there.

[ Parent ]
Florida's too important
I'd agree with this: "they'd probably not spend energy there" if it wasn't Florida.

It's too important to just write off. And now it seems as if Meek can summon just 40%, he might just squeak through. And there are plenty of other races--Governor, Grayson, Kosmas, all the statewide ones--that all become more winnable with a competent statewide Meek effort.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
He doesn't have to start strong
the smart thing, in my opinion would be to feingold it.  He should stick to voter outreach and fund raising while crist battles the anti-crist (I'm sorry, I just love that joke).  Then, when Crist and Rubio go negative, meek stays positive.  Just keep saying "former cop, running against the rubio/crist tag team that started the florida recession back in 2007 and kept the state's unemployment worse than the country since then."  Not exactly factually accurate, but it could resonate.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Hello again, NY-23.
Long time no see!

My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
Luis Fortuno unendorses
http://www.washingtonexaminer....
Didnt know he even endorsed him
has Joe Trippi lost his mind?
Ambinder:

Read it here first: Then there were FOUR. Billionaire Jeff Greene will enter FL SEN race tomorrow as a Democrat ... expect a paper statement. Life story: he came from nothing. Self-made man. Created jobs. Made a difference. (He also shorted sub-primes ...) It's been previously reported that Net pioneer/ex-Dean manager Joe Trippi and Bloomberg and pollster Doug Schoen have been informally advising Greene.

Another Democrat in the FL-Sen race is the last thing we need.

Trippi/Schoen were the team who tried to create Carolyn Maloney havoc earlier in the year


For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Not a four way
Running as a Dem means the primary. And since Trippi is involved Meek will be fine.
[ Parent ]
wasn't trippi at the helm of such
drastically successful presidential campaigns as Howard Dean and John Edwards?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
And more recently, the Brian Moran for Governor campaign.

[ Parent ]
Damn
This guy just hits it out of the park each time.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I'm really surprised Crist didn't do this months ago
Had he done it months ago, he might have been able to look more principled and less desperate. Or, he might have gone all the way to Democratic and tacked further to the left, though I guess that would have been politically harder. Anyway, I doubt he'll win this way, but apparently, he thinks he can.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
FL-Sen: Crist Will Run as an Independent | 69 comments

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