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AZ-Sen: Glassman Beats Hayworth, McCain Under 50

by: James L.

Wed Apr 28, 2010 at 11:33 AM EDT


Public Policy Polling (4/23-25, Arizona voters, 9/18-21/2009 in parens):

Rodney Glassman (D): 33 (25)
John McCain (R-inc): 49 (55)
Undecided: 18 (20)

Rodney Glassman (D): 42
J.D. Hayworth (R): 39
Undecided: 19
(MoE: ±3.4%)

Is nothing sacred? It seems that even John McCain is in the doghouse with voters back in his home state, where is approval rating has fallen to an abysmal 34-55 (down from 42-48 in September). Perhaps not coincidentally, PPP also finds that, by a margin of 55% to 28%, voters consider him to be more of a "partisan voice for national Republicans" than an "independent voice for Arizona". That might actually help John Sidney in the GOP primary, where his job approval is 48-39, but where a plurality of voters still consider him to be "too liberal".

We'll have to wait until tomorrow to see where Hayworth stands in the primary.
James L. :: AZ-Sen: Glassman Beats Hayworth, McCain Under 50
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AZ-Sen: Glassman Beats Hayworth, McCain Under 50 | 31 comments
Is Arizona's primary open or closed?
If open, Democrats should cross-over for Hayworth.  Not only is he more beatable, but the stances Hawyorth would take would have quite like the ones McCain has been taking and it least then it would be masked by faux-moderation.  In other words, force-feed the cat fud.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
It's semi-closed
http://ballotbox.governing.com...

Meaning independents can vote but not Democrats.  If a Democrats wants to vote in it s/he still has plenty of time to change his/her party registration though.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Some interesting approval ratings for other politicians
A lot of people, including myself, speculated Janet Napolitano would run for Senate in 2012.  That seems a bit unlikely looking at her approvals: 41%-48%.  That's not awful but not really the formula for a winning candidate.  

Jon Kyl's not doing great either, though: 35%-39% approvals.  And this (I assume) is among the 2010 electorate: in 2012 it could be more Democratic and ant-Kyl.

Also, PPP has Obama at 45%-51%.  If he recovers his popularity a bit I could see him possibly pulling in Arizona in 2012.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


45-51 aproval
That's better than the vote that Obama got in 2008 against McCain.  Gotta figure that he'll have a great chance to win here going up against Generic R, which presumably won't have the home state effect.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
[ Parent ]
Incumbents in this area are endangered in one way or another
Maybe it's just me, but it seems that incumbents in Utah, Nevada, and Arizona are more disliked than incumbents in the nation as a whole.

Utah:  Bennett should never be endangered, but the whackos on the right are after him.  Hatch should be worried should he decide to run again in 2012.

Nevada:  Reid is in major trouble, and so is John Ensign (in 2012).  The Governor is majorally disliked.

Arizona:  Brewer is not liked much except by the wackos who are happy with her for signing the racial profiling bill.  Kyl is under water, and now McCain is having to fight with a nutjob.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

Hatch will be 78 in 2012
Maybe he will retire.
[ Parent ]
That age doesn't necessarily mean retirement.
I mean look Hawaii Senators, Byrd, what Stevens tried to do in Alaska etc. While age is a indicator in the House, it is much less so for the Senate.

Hatch and Bennet are of similar ages but Hatch has been in the senate for nearly 15 or more years and he hasn't been getting the hate that Bennet has been getting. Therefore I think Hatch would be much less of a target. I do think that if he is in Bennet's position in 2012 that he would just go off and retire however.

[ Parent ]
AZ
Republicans are going to turn Hispanic Voters Into reliable
Democratic Voters.Obama In 2008 here got 45 percent of the
vote and didn't campagin here expect for ad In the last week.Come 2012 with the economy recorving even more,Seniros
seeing Health Care reform wasn't what the right wing
said it was,with troops out of Iraq and hopefully some troops coming out of afghanstain and with Mitt Romney as
the likely Republican nominee It along with Missouri
could be flipped.  
Voters don't approve of McCain but they still want to reelect him
Maybe this is good news for other low-approval incumbents like Reid.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
I think that's a bit of a reach
When you've got the wind at your back, like Republicans currently do, low-approval incumbents somehow find a way to hold on. (See: Kanjorski, Paul.) Much tougher to do that when you're the party in power.

Although Sue Lowden sure is making things interesting...

[ Parent ]
Reid can and will beat her
if only because he'll outspend her in a mixture of negative and positive advertising by about 20 million dollars.

I am tired of this idiocy from Democrats though; why they keep selecting Majority leaders from marginal states when they know that wrecks a Senator's popularity, hell McConnell was barely able to hang on, and as a 4 term incumbent underperformed McCain by 6 points in his own state, despite spending huge sums of money.

[ Parent ]
Oh god
I really hope Hayworth wins the primary.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
Ditto

[ Parent ]
I agree


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Congrats to Glassman
It shows what should have been apparent all along, that a unknown minor officeholder can beat a rightwing Republican in Arizona (and Nevada).  Whether Hayworth will damage McCain enough (or McCain damage McCain enough) for Glassman to be able to beat him is more unlikely, but still possible.

Especially since that immigration bill works out to a very positive electoral benefit for Team Blue.

that bill will
drive hispanic turnout to great heights for an off-year race; mccain better watch his back here
[ Parent ]
MCCAIN FATIGUE
those numbers are NOT GOOD NEWS for john mccain; i am beginning to think that this race might become a dem pickup that NO ONE was thinking about six months ago
I
 didn't see any numbers on the racial profiling, I mean Immigration bill. Will they release them tomorrow?  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Obama approval
There is no way in hell Obama approval in AZ is 45-41, he only got 45 percent of the vote in 08 and the political climate is much much worse now. No wonder this poll is screwy, having Glassman beating Hayworth is extremely unlikely. Hayworth is a nut, but there is no way he is loosing to an unknown city councilman from Tucson.

19, gay male, IL-7, MN 4 (college), Dem
Partisan breakdown of the poll
35-43-21 compared to 32-39-30 in 2008. So from GOP +7 to GOP +8. You probably have a point.
[ Parent ]
I've seen polls out of Tennessee showing Obama getting good ratings there.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Approval
For Obama is 45-51, not 45-41. Also, McCain benefited from being from Arizona and if McCain were not from there, Obama would have won more votes in Arizona and he probably would have won 48%-51% of the vote. Obama's approval rating is about 51% right now, 2 points lower than his 53% win where he won 45% of the vote in Arizona.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
In the poll's defense
Obama's approval may not track directly with his margin in McCain's home state.  There were probably plenty of people who liked Obama just fine, but were still going to vote for the hometown guy.  He might actually have had positive approval and still lost to McCain.

Also, polls overall have been showing that Glassman isn't as unknown as people think he is.  One poll, for instance, showed him and Gabrielle Giffords performing about the same against McCain, while the truly unknown Nan Stockholm Walden performed much worse.  I think Glassman has been running an effective stealth campaign, though whether he can kick it into high gear is an open question.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

[ Parent ]
A
very rich city councilman who can self fund.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
McCain 54% Ahead of Hayworth 26%
A new Rocky Mountain poll in Arizona finds Sen. John McCain (R) is leading his Republican primary opponent, J.D. Hayworth (R), 54% to 26%, with 18% still undecided.
http://politicalwire.com/archi...
The Behavior Research Group
who did this poll (Earl DeBerge of Arizona State University is their chief pollster) is the Field Poll of Arizona.  They're the gold standard.  If they say McCain's up 54-26, this one may be over.

What surprises me is we haven't seen a BRC poll of McCain vs. Glassman, so there's no way to verify whether the PPP numbers above are accurate.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

[ Parent ]
The Behavior Research Group did GE as well
McCain 46
Glassman 24

Hayworth 37
Glassman 30

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Not over by a long shot...
... if memory serves, the primary is in August or Sept. (sorry, too lazy to look it up).  If so, that leaves enough time to close the gap.  If Coats loses in IN and Paul wins in KY,and Bennett loses in UT (nearly a sure bet), the far right will be emboldened like never before.  They will set their sights on McCain and maybe CO then.  

With immigration heating up big time, there isn't a safe bet in this race yet.  McCain's record is all over the place, at least in the eyes of GOPers.  Indies can vote for Hayworth to cause mischief too.  

McCain's got the leg up (assuming the poll is a true reflection), but I wouldn't put this out of reach just yet.  If Crist can collaspse, who's to say McCain can't.  

[ Parent ]
Primary is August 24th
Not over by a long shot indeed.  McCain probably even has til May 26th to have to file as an Indy.
[ Parent ]
Now that
Would be mavericky.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't trust any AZ polls right now.
They are all over the place. Once the primary is over then I'll start believing them more.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
AZ-Sen: Glassman Beats Hayworth, McCain Under 50 | 31 comments

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