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SSP Daily Digest: 4/21 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Wed Apr 21, 2010 at 3:42 PM EDT


FL-Sen: The big rumor, all over the Interwebs today (courtesy of Southern Political Report/Insider Advantage's Matt Towery), is that Charlie Crist has fully resolved to run as an independent for Senate. The announcement will be "sooner rather than later," and he's drafting the speech for the announcement. There's no confirmation from anyone else, though. Crist's camp has denied they've been scrubbing all references to "Republican" from Crist's websites in preparation for the big switch. Meanwhile, GOP establishment support within Florida for Crist seems to be cratering, as current state House speaker Larry Cretul threw his lot in with Rubio today. John McCain also said today that he can't support Crist's independent candidacy. (Wow, that's really going out on a limb there, Mr. Maverick.)

AK-Sen: Lisa Murkowski may be one of the least endangered Senate incumbents out there, with no Democrats of note stepping forward to challenge her. Her GOP primary may turn out to require at least a little effort, though, as a challenger of at least something-of-note has stepped forward: former judge Joe Miller, whose only elective experience is losing a Fairbanks-area state House race. Miller is sounding teabaggy themes about the Constitution and socialism, but has endorsements from three state legislators, all from the socially conservative side of the GOP.

IN-Sen: Hey, big spender! John Hostettler reports raising $37K in the first quarter, spending $27K, and ending with $10K CoH.

NC-Sen: Cal Cunningham's fundraising haul for Q1 was a weak $345K, leaving him $478K CoH. That's still more than Elaine Marshall, who has $181K. Pundits are left wondering if the DSCC (who seem to prefer Cunningham) will intervene on Cunningham's behalf to get him out of the primary, where polls have shown the former state Senator lagging behind Marshall, who as SoS is known statewide.

NV-Sen: Sue Lowden would do well to heed the old expression about finding oneself in a hole and stopping digging. After her disastrous comments about bartering chickens to doctors in exchange for surgeries and MRIs, she was given ample opportunity to back down, but she doubled down yesterday, saying no, she was serious, and now her spokesperson is tripling down today, saying, no, she was still serious, and presenting a quote from one doctor who says that, yes, he does accept payment in alfalfa and bathtub form. Meanwhile, over in the other Senate seat, badly-damaged John Ensign is also on the receiving end of a lot of derision after reporting $50 in receipts in Q1. TPM actually tracked Ensign's one donor down, who shrugged off Ensign's problems, saying "All men are dogs."

UT-Sen: Mitt Romney will be at the Utah Republican convention next month to lend his support to faltering incumbent Bob Bennett. I'm not sure if Romney will be able to vote for Bennett, though, as Utah may not be one of the approximately 14 states in which he has residency.

WA-Sen: Dino Rossi seems content to pad out his waiting game all the way up to Washington's June 11 filing deadline (seemingly blissfully unaware that he needs to raise a metric ton of money ASAP if he's going to run). That's not sitting well with John Cornyn, who's amping up the public statements telling Rossi to get his ass in gear.

CA-Gov: Meg Whitman's out with an internal poll via McLaughlin, giving her a 53-22 edge over Steve Poizner in the GOP primary. Some of you may also have noticed a Rasmussen poll out today showing the needle zooming back in Jerry Brown's direction in the general. I'm very puzzled about this one... why is Rasmussen, of all people, putting up better California results for Dems than the Field Poll? I'm wondering if California is intensely blue enough that Rasmussen's LV model works in Dems' favor somehow.

MI-Gov: I suppose it was only a matter of time before someone went after Republican AG Mike Cox over the alleged coverup of a party-gone-very-awry at then-mayor Kwame Kilpatrick's place in 2002. The ad (a small buy on Lansing-area radio stations) attacking Cox is from Foundation for a Secure and Prosperous America, who, if the name sounds familiar, is the handiwork of Rick Reed, auteur of the Swift Boat Vets ads. Fingers are being pointed at primary rival Rick Snyder, but he says he didn't have anything to do with it.

NY-19: This ought to ease the risk of a NY-23 type situation in the 19th: Nan Hayworth, from the county club wing of the GOP and facing some teabagging opposition in the primary, managed to nail down the endorsement of the Putnam County Conservative Party. Of course, exurban Putnam County is only a small minority of the district, so we'll have to see what happens in the other more populous counties.

NY-29: Speaking of New York and teabaggers, it looks like Corning mayor Tom Reed  -- a moderate who managed to deter bigger GOP names from jumping into the race following Eric Massa's implosion -- is now drawing some teabagging opposition in the GOP primary from small businessman Angelo Campini.

NY-St. Sen.: It's kind of sad that I had to debate over whether a New York state Senate majority leader's office getting raided by the FBI and the state AG's office even qualifies as newsworthy because it's so totally expected. At any rate, Pedro Espada, who mere months ago held the linchpin of power in New York, now seems on his way to an ignominious end, as the scandal over Soundview Health Center heats up.

NY-St. Ass.: This feels more like "Where Are They Now?" than an actual state Assembly story, but Dede Scozzafava, who went in a few short weeks from likely U.S. Representative to historical footnote, has decided that she's through with the Assembly (having gotten sacked from her deputy leadership position). She'll be retiring at the end of her term.

Governors: Here's a fun conversation piece: CREW has released its list of the 10 worst governors, in terms of corruption, unethical behavior, and general malfeasance. In a surprise to me, Jim Gibbons didn't top the list. (I'll give you a hint of who did: he's thinking of running for President in 2012, and he seems to be made partly of Foghorn Leghorn DNA.) Only two Dems made the cut: David Paterson and Bill Richardson.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 4/21 (Afternoon Edition)
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Hostettler is a joke
Yet he may well end up being the nominee. Especially if Coats continues to coast.

Those numbers are mind-boggling.
Reminds me of another Senate race one state over...

[ Parent ]
Seriously, IN-SEN will be fun.
Ellsworth better get ready to kick some ass. I can't wait to hear the Rethugs whining over their shitty candidate (no matter who it is).

[ Parent ]
No way, Coats will crush Hostetler, BUT...
...if there's an upset, it'll be Stutzman.

From what I've read Hostetler has no real traction on the ground.  After all, you can't do field in a state the size of Indiana (9 House seats isn't chump change) without money.

At least Stutzman is on the air, doing all he can with the resources he can get.

But really, Coats will have to almost literally do nothing in the primary to lose.

And if he does lose, it won't be to Hostetler.  I wish it was, because Ellsworth would beat him, but alas Ellsworth is going to have to contend with the formidable (yes, really) Coats.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
His fundraising is far from formidable
He'll have to turn that round. Ellsworth on the other hand made a much more promising start in shorter time.

[ Parent ]
CREW list is interesting, and while I don't
think they picked the wrong list of 10, I don't like how they've included not accepting stimulus money as one of their "charges."

That seems a little odd to me, too.
It's a valid political issue, sure, but being on the wrong side of policy (from my view) doesn't make someone corrupt.

I can't decide whether Paterson or Gibbons is more of an embarrassment. "Testified falsely under oath" and "shielded a top aide from assault allegations" vs. "allegedly assaulted a waitress".  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09


[ Parent ]
CREW isn't an actual ethics organizations
it is a front created by party hacks. It lists the occasional Democrat as cover, usually one who has fallen out of favor with the liberal wing of the party or whose ethical violations are too blatant to ignore. Most of what I'm talking about is from a Rollcall article about them a while ago. With few exceptions, Gibbons and Paterson, the list is a joke.  

[ Parent ]
I'd have to admit the inclusion of the stimulus money criteria
Tends to lend weight to your argument. Too bad, because many of these guys are genuinely corrupt. But this does come off as pretty partisan.  

[ Parent ]
As a former Richardson backer, it's a shame he's on that list.


My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


As a New Mexican myself it's pretty disappointing
We had high hopes for Bill here. The only good thing is that it hasn't actually hurt Diane Denish's chances in November (although considering the second and third tier lightweights the GOP has coughed up, I'm not surprised).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
I, too, am deeply disappointed, because the first Hispanic...
...President is something I want Democrats to be able to brag about, and Richardson was about it on the horizon out there for the time being.

There will be others, but it will take longer now.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
First Hispanic President
Marco Rubio.  

[ Parent ]
Could be
But he has to get elected first. Much of that might yet depend on kamikaze Crist.

[ Parent ]
I think this would be an interesting topic for the weekend thread
Minorities who could be the first ______ elected pres or VP.

[ Parent ]
First Asian-American president?
I was thinking Jindal for the Republicans, though after his volcano monitoring comments and the Redoubt eruption I'm not too sure.

And how about for the Dems? I've heard Gary Locke's name thrown around, though I don't think he's interested in the job. Who else could take the plunge?

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
I wonder if Judy Chu (CA-32) will be ready to go for Senate
If Feinstein retires in 2012.

That would give her a prime spot in at least VP short lists starting in '16.


[ Parent ]
Not until more Republicans are less racist
Rubio might win in Florida, but Missouri?  Indiana?  Ohio?

Sorry, nope.  10% or more of the Repub base won't vote for a Hispanic, or African American, or woman... or Mormon.


[ Parent ]
Woman isnt exactly fair
Sarah Palin and Michele Bachmann, along with Demint, are the ones defacto leading the tea-bagging movement.

[ Parent ]
NC-05
Progressive challenger Billy Kennedy matched Virginia Foxx dollar for dollar in Q1.

http://blog.wataugawatch.net/2...

Local activist irmaly has several good diaries on dailykos that you should check out about Billy.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyo...
http://www.dailykos.com/storyo...
http://www.dailykos.com/storyo...

and also his liveblog

http://www.dailykos.com/storyo...


Crews list seems to be arranged alphabetically, not by who's the worst of the worst


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



No it's right
Those A's are as corrupt as they get.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Barbour's a B. No A's on list


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
The alphabet
has a well-known liberal bias.

[ Parent ]
Them
 A's and B's are all alike. Bunch of crooks! Just to be clear this was my feeble stab at humor.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I must not have noticed because I refuse to accept anyone can be worse than Schwarzenegger
I've lived under his rule for almost seven years, except when I'm at college under the benevolent honest rule of Bobby Jindal...

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Hey, could be worse.
I've been stuck with Goodhair for 10 years! Fortunately I'll be leaving soon.

My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
10k
Are you freakin' serious? Man, and I though Brunner was bad. You need more money than that to run a good campaign for state representative. LOL, this is going to be soooo fun to watch.    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

Statzman raised 68k in 2 days ...
and counting,in the wake of Jim DeMint's endorsement. Maybe the conservatives will start to break for him.  

[ Parent ]
That
 is a real possibility. I really can't see Coats winning the nomination. From what I can sense conservatives hate him. He reeks of Washington elite, supposedly supports gun control, and lobbied for cap and trade. Those aren't tea party friendly positions by any means. I thought Hoss would win it, but I could really see Marlin (who names their kid Marlin?) winning it.  At this point the primary is anyone's game.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Hos raised like 37k
Stutzman isn't a great fundraiser either and has really low name rec, I think Coats actually does win the primary unless Stutz really gets a giant boost from the Demint activity.

As to your other question, I believe parents who really hate their children give them names like Marlin. I also heard he has a brother named Seabass.  


[ Parent ]
Seabass?
LOL! Now the question is whether or not primary voters care about CoH or not. I personally think not. As for Coats his numbers are very unimpressive, he should have much more than he does. I would say that Hoss is much more likely than Stutzman, I was just saying it was possibly. Hoss is well liked on the tea party front, and I really think he will win. Most conservatives in the state think Coats is a RINO and hate him. If Coats gets the nomination I could see many staying home on Election Day. We'll just have to wait and see, but I don't see Coats winning.    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I have a friend
 Who's last name is Bass. His daughter's name was Georgia Bass. They are not from Georgia which makes it stranger.

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  


[ Parent ]
Forget the Lizard People
Marlin in IN and Bass in NH. Bush was right, we can coexist!

[ Parent ]
Fish Caucus
John Shadegg of Arizona could also be a member.

[ Parent ]
too bad Matt Salmon isn't around anymore
also if they win their respective races, Kendrick Meek, Colleen Hanabusa, and Alexi Giannoulias can form the Congressional/Senatorial Misspelled Names Caucuses.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
just to clarify
the brother named Seabass was a joke. I don't understand why you would give somebody that name, but I also wouldn't name my kid Marlin.

[ Parent ]
I
thought that sounded a little a weird.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Site's acting a little strange on internet explorer
It's either showing this thred as having ten comments or zero comments, but when I click on it only the first two comments are shown.  Things fine on Firefox though.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



Well
That's why you don't use Internet Explorer.

My side hobby/job-thing is designing websites for small groups that don't want/can't afford to pay for an actual professional. Internet Explorer... Oh my goodness. So frustrating.


[ Parent ]
I normally use Safari
This was just what I had on me at the time.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
I
can't help but feel a little sorry for Dede. What a fall.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

I don't, the real reason she lost was entirely her own fault......
For all the ideological fissures, DeDe would have won if she'd run a competent campaign.  She actually campaigned worse than Deeds in VA-Gov, in that at least Deeds raised the money he needed even if he wasted it all.  DeDe failed to do even that much.  She had no message, no money, no media, no field...nada.

Hoffman would have been but a minor annoyance had Scozzfava worked hard from Day 1 and run a competent campaign.

But I'm not complaining, it still puts a smile on my face that Bill Owens and the DCCC wrestled that seat away for Team Blue!

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Cohen is back
http://www.dailyherald.com/sto...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

As
a Dentist I can honestly say that if someone tried to pay in chickens I would laugh them out of my office. Lowden will make this race competitive if she keeps making gaffes like that.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

More likely
she will lose the primary, which would also help Reid since she's been polling the best.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Her
base is probably eating this up though.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Really?
I can't imagine things have gotten that bad.  This is such a disconnect from reality that I have a hard time believing anyone can relate to it.  Maybe 500 years ago...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Well
I meant that the base loves it when a candidate says or does something crazy. Look at Failorina in California. IDK, it just seems like the base would like it that's all.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
From the response at FreeRepublic, nope
http://www.freerepublic.com/fo...

My mistake. I did expect them to rave about the idea.


[ Parent ]
NC-Sen
The DSCC better not spend money in the primary on behalf of Cunningham. That will anger of a lot of people very much and alienate a large segment of the NC Democratic establishment, most notably women. It's almost unimaginable that they would do that considering how much the political system in NC is driven by the state party structure and activists and burning bridges in such a such a strong way.  In full disclosure, I voted for Elaine earlier this week.

Typo
I botched that sentence near the end of the sentence. I meant to say: "It's almost unimaginable that they would do that considering how much the political system in NC is driven by the state party structure and activists, this would burn bridges in a strong way."

[ Parent ]
The Dem Establishment has already
Screwed over women this cycle. See Hannabusa and Brunner. The only non-incumbent women they're backing that I know of is Carnahan, and even she required a family legacy. Our friends in the Beltway better are on thin ice with the fairer sex right now.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
Libby Mitchell and Alex Sink has establishment support as well
Although you are right, they really have been screwy to woman. Hannabusa especially, although (not trying to open up that can of warms) Brunner really screwed herself. Also I don't think Marshall is getting the right end of the deal either. I honestly love to see a well qualified woman win; I think it's good for the country.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Typo
"have establishment"

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
They cleared the field for Kirsten Gillibrand
technically incumbent because she was appointed. but she had a lot of potential primary challengers who were nudged out by the Dem establishment.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

[ Parent ]
Bullshit on Brunner, Brunner is a laughingstock......
You can tell who is a thoughtful campaign junkie and who doesn't really know anything by how they evaluate Brunner.  The DSCC stayed out of it and waited to see what Brunner and Fisher would do, and it became real clear, real fast that Brunner was a bumbling idiot, and Fisher while not great at least trying to run a competent campaign.

All the flag-waving for Brunner on DailyKos is eye-rolling, as no one in the Brunner camp acknowledges any problem in the campaign.  It's one thing to prefer a particular candidate for substantive reasons in spite of whatever problems the candidate has, but to refuse to acknowledge anything is wrong really speaks to deep ignorance.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Definitely agree with that
In some ways I really wish that Brunner would've had a stronger campaign, it would've been great to have the chance to elect more progressive women, but at the same time, her absurdly low fundraising has made it impossible to support her.

Yes, Fisher's fundraising hasn't been wonderful (especially as of late) but he's shown an ability to fundraise enough to at least be viable, and after the primary, if the polling stays reasonably close he'll probably be able to raise at least enough to stay viable against Portman (that's simply something I can't say about Brunner, from an objective point of view).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Regarding Brunner
The Ohio Dem primary is less than 2 weeks away.  To be fair, I haven't seen Lee Fisher do much.  Here in suburban Cleveland I've seen exactly 2 tv ads of his the whole campaign.  

At this point, the race is close enough where it wouldn't really be surprising if Fisher lost.  We've already seen our fair share of surprising primary results, most notably in IL-10 and IL-14.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


[ Parent ]
They're making a big mistake imo
Because not only are they alienating many Democratic activists by intervening in an NC primary, they are also ignoring a fact of NC politics as of late: Female candidates do very well in NC, especially statewide. In 2008, 6 of the 10 people elected to the Council of State were women, and 5 of them were Democratic women. Kay Hagan also crushed Liddy Dole in the Senate race. Female Democratic judicial candidates have done very well in NC too. The gender advantage is an important aspect of NC politics that continues to become more true every cycle.

Plus, 59% of registered Democrats in NC are women, and women play a strong role within the state and local parties. So in my opinion the DC establishment risks alienating a large part of the NC establishment if they choose to actively support Cunningham in the primary through ads or money. That is not to say Cunningham will not get those votes in the general, but there will not be the same enthusiasm among the base in my opinion.


[ Parent ]
I agree with your argument
Which is why I was very shocked that Hillary Clinton didn't perform better against Obama in the NC Democratic primary.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
It was somewhat polarized racially in the primary
About 56% of NC Dem primary voters were women in 2008. Of those women, about 60% were white and about 40% were black. White women voted for Clinton 65-33, but black women voted for Obama 90-7. So Obama won women voters in the primary 55-43 largely because of the lopsided margin among black voters, although most of the people that voted for Hillary in the primary voted for Obama in November anyway.

[ Parent ]
REDISTRICTING IN AMERICa A State-by-State Analysis
REDISTRICTING IN AMERICa
A State-by-State Analysis

Rose Institute

For those redisdtriting fans of Daves Application

http://rosereport.org/redistri...

Joe Cooper


Just noticed this tweet. Thanks Steve, you & your books rock
http://twitter.com/SwingState/...
DNC last month got the max $30,400 contribution from Stephen E. King of Bangor, ME, occupation self-employed author


just as long as
he doesn't end the check with a giant fricken spider

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Not surprised that Carcieri made the list
he is a royal jerk and people in RI know it. Sad I wasn't old enough to vote against him. He really makes me appreciate term limits :)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


Crist says he won't go indy
http://www.examiner.com/x-4476...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

I won't believe anything until the April 30 deadline.


[ Parent ]
Well he's dug his own grave even deeper with these repeated April comments...
...promising to stay a Republican.  It's one thing to go silent on the subject a few weeks out, but to say in early April you're staying a Republican, then repeating the same on April 21, only 9 days before the filing deadline, puts him in an extraodinarily impossible position to explain himself if he files as an indy.

For Crist to help us, we need him to stay somewhat viable as a 3rd wheel, and to take away more Republican leaners than Democratic leaners so that he hurts Rubio and helps Meek.  If Crist drops down to Alan Schlesinger status which is where he appears to me to be headed as an indy, then he's useless.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Worst than that
I think his Indy bid could hurt Meeks more than Rubio. Who will Crist's Indy base be? By vetoing the Education bill I think he would be building his base in an Indy senate run around support from the teachers union.

That's teacher's union support is the base that Meeks would need to win. I think Crist runs Indy he runs to the left to eat into the moderate Dem vote.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


[ Parent ]
"the party of Lincoln, Reagan, and Roosevelt"
It makes me want to puke when Republicans try to embrace both Lincoln and Reagan. The former did more for equality and social justice than almost any other president. The latter tried to destroy equality and fairness more zealously than any president since Wilson. The party of Lincoln and Roosevelt is DEAD. The Republicans now are just vultures carrying out the memory of their top vulture, Reagan.

[ Parent ]
Fed investigation of Rubio
I wonder if today's news about Rubio is giving Crist (delusional) hope that he can dig himself out of the hole before the primary. Or if he's just trying to keep his name in the news by sending mixed signals

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

[ Parent ]
Crist
has been routinely hammering the credit card story regularly in negative adds and it hasn't helped him slightly in the polls. So I think your right, and I really can't see Crist gaining too much ground over this.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
very sensible choice, if...
He KNOWS there is more dirt.

If not, it seems a bad choice based on ego.


[ Parent ]
Here's what's irritating about Espada:
The local news is still identifying him as the senate majority leader.  


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