Rasmussen Reports released polling for the Texas Governor’s race today. Surveying likely voters, they found incumbent Republican Gov. Rick Perry ahead 48% – 44% over former Houston Mayor Bill White.
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
(Per Political Wire)
White’s four point deficit is pretty spectacular when one considers Texas’ political leanings, the national environment, and the right leaning house of effect of the source, Rasmussen.
The Texas Governor’s race could be a bright spot in what appears to be a disappointing cycle for Democrats.
The race is even more important considering the upcoming redistricting fight. A win here would give Democrats at least some leverage in the process (if they fail to make the slim gains needed to take the Texas House of Representatives).
If Mr. White were to take the governor’s mansion, I speculate it would have immediate implications on the 2016 Presidential Election.
I believe that a White win would immediately make him a contender to succeed President Obama.
First, the voters Bill White appeals to are the same as those that Mr. Obama brought into the fold. These voters tend to be college-educated and live within cities and (to a greater extent) suburbs across America.
These are the voters in NOVA, in NC’s Research Triangle, in Omaha (yes, Omaha, the site of Mr. Obama’s lone Nebraska elector to the Electoral College), and even in Texas’ Harris, Travis and Fort Bend counties.
Bill White won his first election as mayor in 2003 37% – 33% – 29% and defeated Republican Councilman Orlando Sanchez 63% – 37% in the runoff.
His three terms as mayor of America’s fourth largest city were seen as wildly successful by most. He won his two subsequent elections with 91% and 86% respectively.
During this time, he made his first appearance on the national stage after Hurricane Katrina decimated Louisiana and Mississippi. He welcomed thousands of refugees to Houston.
Almost exactly a month later, he would help implement the largest evacuation in American history, an act that would make him the perfect foil to then-New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin.
As a result of his actions during and after these two massive natural disasters, Mayor White was given the Profile in Courage Award and named Governing Magazine’s Public Official of the Year in 2007.
Bill White has a great chance to pull off a stunning upset in the Lone Star State. The path to victory begins in the city he led for 6 years.
If he can post substantial margins in Harris county (which President Obama barely won 51-49) and in Fort Bend county (which Sen. McCain won 51-49) and make a strong showing in Montgomery county (where Sen. McCain’s 83,012 vote margin was the largest in the state and, to my knowledge, the third largest in the country), you’re looking at the newest Governor of Texas.
Of course, he will still need to turn out the large Hispanic vote across the state. He will also need to rack up big margins in Dallas county (Dallas), Bexar county (San Antonio), El Paso county (El Paso) and Travis county (Austin).
If White can do this, which definitely will not be a cake walk, I speculate he will instantly be the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination for the President in 2016 (if he runs).
As a former resident of Montgomery county, I can see him doing well in some of the more Republican friendly areas there and elsewhere.
All the rancorous, incomprehensible talk out of the current governor doesn’t play as well in wealthier suburbs. Yes, rural former dixiecrats and Palinites alike will eat it up, but I do not see those Kay Bailey Hutchison backers in Tarrant, Montgomery, Fort Bend, and Denton counties.
Bill White needs these voters. They are the stereotypical Texas Republicans of the 1950s. They are oilmen, soccer moms, college-educated and suburbanites. They are also overwhelmingly white.
This is not to discount the millions of young and minority voters who turned out for then-Sen. Obama in 2008. They are an integral part of the Democratic coalition. These voters are also extremely important in Texas and to White’s campaign; however, they are not enough to win this year.
In 2020, that may be a completely different story, but this year, Mayor White will need white, Republican suburbanites. He won’t need all, he won’t even need most.
But this year, Bill White will need a strong showing among them, at least for a Democrat, and anecdotal evidence out of Fort Bend and Montgomery counties tells me he has a pretty good shot.
Wouldn’t it be sweet, delicious irony that the man who (hopefully) defeats secessionist, Tea Bagger Rick Perry go on to be the Democratic successor to President Obama?
Hey yall, hope you liked my first diary. I’ve been a daily visitor (more like a thrice daily visitor) to the site for some time.
I guess now that I’ve popped my diary cherry, I may try another. Any feedback at all is highly welcome.
Best Regards
That White becomes the first person to grasp the Obama coalition in Texas and win with it instead of relying on the old Texas Democrats coalition which was win everything outside of the cities and suburbs which were much smaller then. I hear alot of people talk about how in 2016, changing demographics will create a large enough coalition to get Democrats to win in Texas. White will need a coalition of suburban whites (which are the big swing voter here,) African Americans and Hispanics to win. It would be great if White is able to seize this coalition Obama began to form. Obama lost Collin County by 23 points, an 18 point shift from 2004. I believe White can continue what Obama started in the affulent white suburbs. Clinton in the 90’s got the northeast suburban whites to vote less Republican and I can see White doing more of that in Harris County and in the Dallas area in Denton and Collin Counties. My only worry is that Perry did pretty well in Houston and Dallas during the primary. White still might be able to counterbalance that with Hispanic support. Speaking Spanish definitely will help them there.