My fear and prediction is Crist drops out altogether......

A 2012 challenge to Bill Nelson has to look attractive to him right now.

The problem with an indy run is that Crist is ambitious, he doesn't see himself in the twilight of his career, and an indy run ends his career altogether if he doesn't thread the needle and win......not to mention even if he does win, he then is forever insecure as both parties' bases and organizations forever turn fire on him.  He becomes an island, which is something Joe Lieberman is fine with since he really is in his political twilight, but Crist can't be.

I think, too, Crist dropping out hands the seat to Rubio.  I don't like our chances in a 2-way where Meek himself has to do the dirty work against Rubio, rather than rely on Crist doing it in a divisive and late-in-the-calendar primary.  Meek hasn't raised enough money to both self-define and attack Rubio, and he can't count on the DNC or DSCC to do the attacking when they're playing so much defense and have other pickup opportunities that for the moment look more promising.  I haven't seen Meek's fundraising numbers yet for the 1st quarter, but by November he needs to have raised and spent at least triple the 4.6 milliion he had banked at the end of 2009.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 20:38:21 PM UTC

Taking on Nelson in 2012

can't seem all that attractive to Crist.  He has to know that there will be another Marco Rubio out there waiting for him in the primary, especially after he just alienated the Republican establishment.  

Marco Rubio was a relative unknown a year ago, and he's a world beater now mostly because he happened to be the conservative alternative to Crist.  There's definitely another conservative nobody (or maybe even a somebody) out there ready to clean Crist's clock in a primary in 2012.  Crist HAS to understand that.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

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by: spiderdem @ Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 20:53:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That might be true, but Crist has time to regroup and reposition himself......

Thing is, the primary is over, Crist can't win.

If you're Crist, do you really want to run as an indy, with the possible outcomes of permanent political exile if he loses, or permanent political purgatory followed by exile if he wins?  If he wins as an indy, he still starts off on the wrong foot for having humiliated the Republicans by beating Rubio.  Rubio is no Ned Lamont who got only balking backing from his party's establishment; in contrast the Republican establishment has come around early to fully embrace Rubio.  Even if he wins, Crist never again would be treated as a Republican in good standing by the party base.  And this is the good outcome, contrasted with losing as an indy and then forever disappearing from any hope of elective office.

At least in a 2012 run Crist would start fresh, and have a fighting chance to win a Republican primary.  It's not a given that he wouldn't win a 2nd time around, the political environment nationally and in Florida will be very different by then.  Crist having dropped out of the 2010 primary early, and endorsing Rubio, will actually earn him some goodwill among Republicans, so he won't necessarily be persona non grata.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 21:02:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I have to think his chances as an Indy in 2010

are slightly better than his chances in a Republican primary in 2012, although that's admittedly a little speculative.  I'm not necessarily up on his chances as an Indy so much as I'm down on his chances in any Republican primary in the short term to intermediate future.  Although the overall environment will undoubtedly change by 2012, I doubt that the closed primary electorate in Florida will change enough to nominate Crist.  The margins he is facing right now are staggering and, again, Rubio started out as a nobody.

And his career would not necessarily be dead if he "humiliates" the Republicans with an Indy victory.  The Republican base already dislikes him.  If he runs as an Indy, Crist would need to find new political friends among Democrats and non-partisans, probably caucus with the Democrats, and take some positions that are popular with Democrats, as he has done recently.  He's more than soul-less enough to do all of that.

I saw you compare him to Schlesinger in CT the other day.  I think he's more like Lieberman, and will displace Meek as the recipient of Democratic goodwill, at least to some extent.  The education bill veto really made a difference to people and the bill was VERY unpopular.  As a liberal Democrat, I've always liked Charlie and my liberal friends do too.

The difference with CT is that Florida is much, much larger and more expensive.  That is where Crist will have difficulty, as Rubio is a fundraising machine.  On the whole, I give Crist maybe a 25% chance in an Indy run and a 5% or less chance in any Republican primary in the short term to intermediate future.  

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

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by: spiderdem @ Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 21:21:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nelson in 2012 makes no sense

There has to be zero chance of that.  Run against Nelson instead of Kendrick Meek?  How dingy is that?

To state the obvious, if Crist can't win a Rep primary this year, he ain't going to win in 2012 against a Diaz-Balart or whoever.

There's just no way Crist would be that stupid.  He's favored three ways; he's favored head to head against Meek.  Crist is still more than 50% likely the next Senator from Florida.

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by: tommypaine @ Sat Apr 17, 2010 at 00:56:38 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

50% chance of Sen. Crist R-FL...

.... no way. Crist's chances are no better than 20-25% under any scenario.  This one is Rubio's to lose.  In theory that could happen, but it would have to be a self-inflicted meltdown.  There is no reason to believe that  will happen.

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by: vicupstate @ Sat Apr 17, 2010 at 03:24:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The poll is saying quite either wise

With Crist as an indy, it's a toss-up.  He could beat Meek, but he'll never win the GOP primary obviously.

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by: Andrew @ Sat Apr 17, 2010 at 08:14:28 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It won't stay a toss up

Crist will loses substantial credibility and support the minute he pulls the trigger on an Indie bid. Also, Rubio's coffers will overflow with new contributions.

That's my prediction anyway. Like I said, Crist doesn't have any good options.  

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by: vicupstate @ Sat Apr 17, 2010 at 13:11:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Also don't forget...

..what causes indie numbers to fall on election day is always the party (and their auxillaries such as churches and unions) GOTV.  The question is once you removve the professional Republican element of his campaign (which is probably most of it) does he have the ability to build a decent GOTV effort?

Cahill in Massachusetts is building a case for himself by appealing to white catholic ethnics.  Can Crist really generate excitement?  What made him a good general election candidate is he was comforting for independents.  But independent insurgengency are not about comfort.  They have a strong core of anger at the political establishment.  And Crist is the dictionary definition of the establishment.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

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by: Taget @ Sat Apr 17, 2010 at 15:37:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yup, Crist would have to be a "socially moderate" teabagger

to pick off disaffected Rs.

And I don't see how he rationalizes that with his support of the stimulus.

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by: tietack @ Sat Apr 17, 2010 at 16:19:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

50% maybe yes maybe no, but the most likely winner, that is a sure thing

Crist as a Dem beats Meek and stomps Rubio.  Crist as an indie is the favorite.  The only way he will likely lose is if he stays a Republican.

Rubio's race to lose?  Where do you get that?  he's 4% ahead of Meek, before completely alienating Crist's supporters late er in the campaign (if Crists stays a Rep and loses).

Rubio is slightly more likely than meek, but Crist is way more likely.

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by: tommypaine @ Sun Apr 18, 2010 at 10:28:06 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Crist doesn't have any good options...

... I think his game has caught up to him.  I have downplayed the chance that he would go Indie, but obviously, it is at least being pondered seriously.  

The drop out and run in 2012 option is probably his best shot, provided the Tea 'party' is over by then.  But even then, he is still the naked emperor, that no one will see 'clothed' again.  

I wonder if Ken Buck in CO can make the kind of turn-around that Rubio did, now that he has the DeMint seal of approval.  A big difference is that CO doesn't have the equivalent of Jeb Bush.  Still, it's a possibility that Buck could catch the fancy of conservatives nationwide and give Jane Norton a real run for her money, if not beat her outright.    

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by: vicupstate @ Fri Apr 16, 2010 at 21:33:59 PM UTC

And Norton

Isn't hated as much by activist nationally as Crist was. It wasn't Republicans in Florida that gave Rubio his initial resources, it was nationwide. I know quite a few people around the country and in Colorado that support Rubio and DeVore but also support Norton.  

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by: GOPVOTER @ Sat Apr 17, 2010 at 02:51:30 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

an astute and valid point,

but does Norton have some liberal bonafides in her closet?  Also, Buck doesn't have to beat the daylights out of Norton (like Rubio is doing to Crist), he justs needs a 1 vote plurality.  I think its a legit possibility.

Maybe Obama should start saying really nice things about Norton.  That would cook her goose.  Maybe he could give her a hug, when her guard is down.  

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by: vicupstate @ Sat Apr 17, 2010 at 03:30:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rasmussen has AZ-Sen 47-42 McCain over Hayworth

Yeah, I know it's Rasmussen, but still.

A Rasmussen poll might show a tight CO race in the not too distant future.  

BTW, Can IND Democrats/indies vote in the GOP Senate primary (say for Hoesteller)?  Anyone know? Would be a great way to make mischief.  

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by: vicupstate @ Sat Apr 17, 2010 at 03:38:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

If I remember correctly

Indiana doesn't actually have formal party registration (or maybe that's Illinois I'm thinking of) but either way, I know that it's a wide-open primary.

I'd vote for ole Hostettler in a minute (well, if I weren't a few thousand miles to the southwest of Indiana) except that then the Indiana Republican party would probably be harassing me forever and a day (although it would amuse me to play around with those bastards for a bit, string them along and force them to waste postage on me :D).

Yeah, this is what I do for fun :D

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Sat Apr 17, 2010 at 05:33:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Like when I move to Arizona this summer

I could vote for Hayworth and Buz Mills in August to annoy the Republicans there! (snicker)

My blog
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

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by: californianintexas @ Sat Apr 17, 2010 at 05:40:38 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Again, I say our best bet is Meek vs. Rubio

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Sat Apr 17, 2010 at 15:53:44 PM UTC

Republicans: a bunch of fair weather fans

The Republican Party cannot tolerate one of their own not living up to proposed litmus tests.  It was the case back in 1998 (Clinton impeachment), and it is true today.

Just a few years ago, Crist was a rising star within the GOP party.  Now, no one wants to be associated with the Crist train.  The Republicans are a bunch of fair weather fans.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Sat Apr 17, 2010 at 18:07:39 PM UTC

Quinnipiac press release was incorrect?

The press release from the Quinnipiac University poll showing Crist as the leader was incorrect. (on purpose?)

"If Crist were to file as an independent for the general election, he would get 32 percent of the vote, compared to Rubio's 30 percent and Meeks 24 percent."

""In a three-way general election:

Crist would get 30 percent of Republicans, 27 percent of Democrats and 38 percent of independent voters;

Rubio would receive 64 percent of GOP votes, 5 percent from Democrats and 29 percent of independents:

Meek, a congressman from South Florida, would get 55 percent of Democratic votes, 15 percent of independents and no Republicans.""

Add it up yourself, these percentile totals show Rubio with 98, Crist with 95 and Meek with 70 out of a possible 300% (the balance DK/NA)

That equates to Rubio at 32.6%, Crist at 31.6% and Meek at 23.3% of the vote in a three-way race. Rubio would still be in the lead, indeed smaller but still ahead. Crist still can't get a break.

You can see question 7 on the chart at Quinnipiacs site:
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x129...

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by: maxwell @ Sun Apr 18, 2010 at 00:33:24 AM UTC

Meek Only getting 55% of democrats?

If that's true that means he has a tremendous room to grow.

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by: lovespolitics @ Sun Apr 18, 2010 at 16:17:14 PM UTC