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WI-Sen: Thompson Won't Run

by: Crisitunity

Thu Apr 15, 2010 at 2:07 PM EDT


Whoooosh! That sound is Democrats dodging a bullet -- an odd bullet with enough vulnerabilities that it wasn't as likely to hit its mark as many assumed -- but a big bullet nonetheless. Ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson won't run for Senate against Russ Feingold, he announced this afternoon at a Tea Party rally in Madison. Feingold's election seems much easier now, although it's unclear who he'll face (real estate mogul Terrence Wall or beer baron Dick Leinenkugel?).

Taniel tweets, regarding Thompson's impetus:

Thompson weirdly puts all blame on his family: he says he wanted to run, family vetoed. Trying to keep Tea Partiers' good will for future?
Crisitunity :: WI-Sen: Thompson Won't Run
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WI-Sen: Thompson Won't Run | 28 comments
2 down, 1 to go
Pataki and Thompson say no.

Dino Rossi is the last bullet in the chamber, just need to see if he fires or is a dud.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

Methinks a dud.
Marc Ambinder seems to think that Dems will control the Senate in Nov after Pataki and Thompson have backed off - http://www.theatlantic.com/pol...
[ Parent ]
If Rossi is out and Blumenthal is not as dumb as today's article suggests
Then at most the GOP could win is 9 (including Boxer), that just gives them a tie, meaning dems retain control less Lieberman or Ben Nelson bolt parties.

Looks like Senate is out of reach, me thinks.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Say hello to
Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-NY). Probably.
[ Parent ]
That would be sweet.
I don't care if it was Durbin or Schumer, they both are leagues ahead of Reid.

That being said I always found it interesting that Bill Clinton in his oral history project with Taylor Branch said, I paraphrase "Harry Reid is the most underrated member of the Senate." I wonder if we still underestimate him and his leadership abilities.

[ Parent ]
Maybe.
I remember reading an article years ago that suggested that Reid got a leadership job because he's a walking encyclopedia of obscure Senate rules and procedures. I don't doubt that the guy has a decent strategic mind and is capable when he wants to be; it's just that he never seems to use the resources that he has available to him. We know the guy's a boxing commissioner with a great strategic mind, but he never seems to actually use those assets when it counts - he just rolls over. Not that herding cats with a caucus including the likes of Nelson, Nelson, Lincoln, Pryor, and (ugh) Lieberman is easy, but you'd think he could at least appear a bit less spineless for the cameras, for at least his own sake if not the sake of the party.  
[ Parent ]
Eh, I think that Durbin will be the next Majority Leader
He is second in line and the things that made Schumer strong as head of the DSCC are not necessarily the same things that will make him strong as Majority Leader. Plus, if Wall Street and the big banks remain an issue later on, it's doubtful that Senate Democrats are going to want to have a politician from New York to be their face.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
That,
and Schumer really seems like he'd make a fantastic whip. Let the guy work behind the scenes twisting arms and breaking heads, while Durbin is the public face of the Senate Dems. If the two work together as closely as McConnell and Kyl do, they could really start standing up to Republican obstruction. Besides, Durbin can't come off looking any more spineless than Reid, can he? (Please don't answer that.)  
[ Parent ]
Durbin has the IL problem
The difference will be all the votes Schumer gets from Dems he shepherded in with him at the DSCC. Besides, I still have the nagging feeling that Durbin is cut from the same cloth as Reid. He backtracks too easily.
[ Parent ]
I think you'll see it come down to who wins seats where
If the Democrats hold Illinois and Indiana and pick up Ohio and Missouri, those will probably all be votes for their fellow Midwesterner, Durbin (if Hodes wins New Hampshire, he'll probably vote for Schumer).

And I don't believe that Schumer necessarily has an edge on the '06 and '08 classes (as there are plenty of politicians, such as Mark Warner, Tom Udall, and Bob Casey who probably, rightly, believe that the DSCC had no real role in their victories and maybe even one (Begich) who thinks it actually hurt him during the election).

As for whether or not Durbin is cut from the same cloth as Reid, my understanding of Durbin is that he has a much stronger grasp of Senate procedures and will be able to put them to use (not to mention that Durbin seems pretty gung-ho about filibuster reform, I haven't heard anything from Schumer on that front which is why I prefer Durbin).

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24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Poor Harry.
We're already arguing over his corpse.


[ Parent ]
Yeah, it's pretty sad
Though I am on record as saying that I don't believe he's a dead man walking (yet anyways) so I'm just speculating on an extremely likely scenario rather than assuming that we'll have to lay ole Harry out to political pasture :P

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24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
And I doubt they'll get a net of nine.
They'll get North Dakota and probably Arkansas, but I think we'll win California.  I also can't see us losing Pennsylvania AND Illinois AND Nevada AND Colorado AND Indiana.  Plus, we have increasingly good chances in Florida and North Carolina and have good chances in Missouri, Ohio, and New Hampshire.

All in all, there is a chance we could actually GAIN seats.  Wouldn't that be something, especially if we exchange Blanche and Bayh for Hodes, and one of the candidates from Ohio and North Carolina?

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
I'm actually more bullish on our chances in both Illinois and Nevada than a lot of people are
For all of Giannoulias's troubles right now, the best that Kirk has been able to get out of him is a rough tie.

And while it's more likely than not that Reid loses, Sue Lowden is simply not a top-tier challenger and it seems like it would be pretty damn easy to paint her in a really bad light with all of Harry's money.

I think you also forgot about Delaware, it's pretty damn hard to imagine Castle losing that race (not impossible, but I'm operating under the presumption that we start 2 down with another 3 gross likely to be lost).

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24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I'm not sure how I feel about Delaware.
Castle has the advantage now, but Coons has done pretty well in fundraising, this is a blue state, and the Democratic VP lives there.  It's certainly not a tossup right now, but it sure as hell ain't solid Republican either.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
To do that
They would need to retain ALL their current seats as well, and I bet the Dems win at least one of these, FL, OH, NC, KY or NH.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
Plus the sleeper that is Iowa.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I also forgot
Missouri, and maybe Georgia if Isakson continues to have low approvals/name recognition.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
Don't write off Louisiana
It's a bad year in a tough state but Melancon's a solid candidate.  Vitter's easily the favorite but he's not safe.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
I think Vitter is safe
and I will continue to think so unless there is evidence otherwise. LA is a very Republican state nowadays, and Vitter is a pretty hard-right incumbent. People in LA don't really care much if their politicians commit adultery or have sex with whores. I think it's something like the French attitude.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
To be Isakson
There has to be a Democratic candidate worth a damn running against him. From everything I've read, unfortunately, there isn't, and I'd call that a recruiting failure.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
But Senate races are not independent
In the world where Republicans make nine or ten gains, they're quite unlikely to lose any seats themselves, as the national environment would be sufficiently pro-GOP. Basically, the prospect of defending seats makes little difference to the Republican's chance of gaining a majority, although it does matter at lot if the cycle starts to favour Dems a little more.
[ Parent ]
WA
IDK. I don't think Cornyn is gonna let that go or Wisconsin. Both are full of people who are considering or have considered political campaigns in the past that are major self-funders. Also, in WA, Susan Hutchison is waiting in the wings. She is from the right part of the state, so she could win and raise money. She also has a moderate profile to attract independents and conservadems. Also, I wouldn't be surprised to see Cornyn pursue John Stanton, the Western Wireless (former?) CEO who almost ran for Gov in 2004. He is a billionaire. Ron Johnson has also promised to self-fund his potential campaign in Wisconsin.  
[ Parent ]
I think Feingold would have beaten him
but I'm glad the DSCC won't have to drop a few million on this race.
Russ wouldn't have needed, nor wanted DSCC $.

[ Parent ]
See
Nancy Boyda to why you shouldn't refuse the party committees coming to your rescue when your in a tough race.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Who called it first?
And now i'll call the Republican nomination
I met Terrence Wall for the first time as the tea party was breaking up. No chops.

Westlake is a bozo.

They don't trust Leinenkugel.

So the nomination goes to state Sen. Ted Kanavas, who indicated this morning he'd 'consider' running if Tommy passed.

[ Parent ]
WI-Sen: Thompson Won't Run | 28 comments

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