WOOOOO!!!!!!

As an early Gillibrand supporter (as in she was my first choice for this seat before it was known who would take it) this thrills me. Looks like NY-Sen B is SAFE for 2010!!!!!

Looks like WI-SEN and WA-SEN are all that is left in flux. I'm thinking/hoping Stupak was the last retirement at the Federal level.

Go team blue!

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Wed Apr 14, 2010 at 00:44:51 AM UTC

Oh God, don't tell me that Pataki still has delusions that he'll win the Republican nomination for president

It's good for us, I suppose, but that doesn't change the fact that Pataki is a fool.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Wed Apr 14, 2010 at 01:14:58 AM UTC

That's what it sounds like

As Governor, he signed the bill that created the Healthy New York health insurance plan for people with incomes under $25,800/year or so that I am a subscriber to, and publicized it amply with public service announcements. Clearly, he was in no way a rabid opponent of help for poorer working people who aren't poor enough to be covered by Medicaid. Therefore, this move is insincere and could only be motivated by either (1) a plan to run for President (and be drubbed - remember, he has the charisma of a toad and is also way too moderate to win Republican primaries nationally), (2) some source of profit from payments by insurance companies or some other deep-pocketed arm of big-business interests.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Wed Apr 14, 2010 at 01:37:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yawn

no surprises here, It's Gillibrand's seat now

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by: Taconic66 @ Wed Apr 14, 2010 at 01:23:46 AM UTC

Perfect timing

He's supporting David Malpass I bet. Malpass is kicking off his campaign tomorrow, and Pataki doesn't want his campaign kick-off to be ignored b/c of questions about whether Pataki will enter.  

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by: GOPVOTER @ Wed Apr 14, 2010 at 01:48:54 AM UTC

Was talking with a friend (who happens to be a fmr. Spitzer staffer) earlier today...

When the topic of Gillibrand '10 came up, he seemed to think she'd be a pretty safe bet, even with Pataki in the race. On Blakeman, he said "good luck with that." With DioGuardi, though, he expressed concern that a riled-up conservative base could keep Gilly on her toes, ala Moynihan vs. Castro in '94; the incumbent Dem won by 12% there.

I happen to disagree with my buddy, though. I think Blakeman can peel off conservaDems and run well among moderates, though all Gillibrand really needs to do is score 90% among Democrats to win this. I think DioGuardi and Malpass are downright toxic, although I think the latter can self-finance, which is a plus. Of course, so can Blakeman, and he's a RINO.

Keep in mind, though - historically, GOP wins (as in, D'Amato wins) in recent years have been attributed to chaos stemming among the Dem base.

D'Amato won in 1980 because incumbent Jacob Javitz opted to run third-party after losing the GOP nomination; he was a liberal Republican, and he stole conservative Democrats away from the liberal Dem nominee, Liz Holtzman. Holtzman would've won w/o Javitz in play.

In 1986 and 1992, D'Amato benefitted from a fractured, post-primary Democratic Party. In '86, Mark Green defeated the multimillionaire John Dyson for the Dem nod; Dyson's more conservative supporters bolted for D'Amato in the general. In '92, the Dems waged a bloody, super-negative primary among Holtzman, Geraldine Ferraro, Robert Abrams, and Al Sharpton. Abrams won, and the Holtzman/Ferraro supporters stayed home.

D'Amato lost in '98 because the Dems finally got their act together. And, with Carolyn Maloney and Harold Ford outta the picture, Gillibrand should be OK. I wouldn't get lazy, though.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

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by: andyroo312 @ Wed Apr 14, 2010 at 01:50:16 AM UTC

A few things though

One Gillibrand has a strong base in upstate New York, and no Republican can win statewide without winning the Hudson River Valley. Two, Gillibrand is a very talented campaigner, and three, your examples lack some relevance because New York is a lot more Democratic at this point than it was in say, the 1980s or even the 1990s. Democrats have made enormous advances into Nassau and Suffolk, and Winchester has turned solidly Democratic, as has Erie and Monroe and Onondaga. The math is increasingly hard to next to impossible for Republicans running statewide in New York.

The polling already shows why Gillibrand doesn't need to worry about any of the other Republicans, she beats them two to one. All she needs to do is campaign and run ads in the New York metro area to continue building her connections there and getting those voters more familiar with her, not only to get a solid margin there this time around, but also to secure her position there in any possible 2012 primary.

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by: jwaalk @ Wed Apr 14, 2010 at 02:17:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agree

Her biggest challenge now is winning big enough so as to discourage those champing at the bit to challenge her. A weak showing and she is in trouble next time around. Which means she won't take any of the Republicans for granted.

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Apr 14, 2010 at 02:22:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Republicans did defeat

Democratic incumbents for County Executive in Westchester (not Winchester) and Nassau Counties.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Wed Apr 14, 2010 at 06:41:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

In Local Executive Elections

pretty removed from national political issues and in circumstances of very, very low turnout among Democrats. County Executive Positions are not something I view federal elections through, countless places in the south still elect large numbers of highly conservative Democrats to County positions even though they haven't backed Democrats for a federal race in decades. That was the reverse effect that you saw.

Not to mention one gets the feeling that case behind both those loses were incumbents falling asleep at the wheel.

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by: jwaalk @ Wed Apr 14, 2010 at 08:06:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm not really suggesting a likelihood

that victories by Republicans for County Executive will translate into support for a Republican candidate for U.S. Senator. However, I do not have the feeling that the main reason for the Democratic incumbents' defeat was that they fell asleep at the wheel. Instead, it was the combination of layoffs and foreclosures on the one hand and high property taxes on the other.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Wed Apr 14, 2010 at 12:36:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I disagree, especially with Tom Suozzi

where it seemed like he was more interested in planning his next statewide movie than getting reelected now.

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by: jwaalk @ Wed Apr 14, 2010 at 21:25:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Great

Rasmussen obviously got a heads up since he polled that famous New Yorker "Generic Republican".

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

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by: conspiracy @ Wed Apr 14, 2010 at 02:07:28 AM UTC

Yeah whatever Scotty

If that poll is reason for alarm the Republicans should be freaking out over Richard Burr.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

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by: sapelcovits @ Wed Apr 14, 2010 at 03:10:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

cue peter king

third mulls the charm?  (Snark)

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

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by: doug_tuttle @ Wed Apr 14, 2010 at 03:48:52 AM UTC

Well, there's one D seat that's definitely not in play...

What is it about Kirsten Gillibrand that scares off potentially formidable challengers? Whatever it is, I am glad Pataki isn't making the race. It's not a shocking development though. I still think Gillibrand would've won but it would've been a somewhat close race and it would've depleted resources we can spend in other states.

What's the status on the potential Senate candidacies of Dino Rossi in WA and Tommy Thompson in WI? Ultimately, I doubt either one runs and they've left the state parties in a terrible bind by waiting this long to decide (boo-hoo). But I think once the intentions of those two jokers are made clear, we'll know exactly how many seats we have in play.  

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by: NCDem @ Wed Apr 14, 2010 at 07:08:46 AM UTC

WA-Sen - already a campaign under way

http://www.seattlepi.com/conne...

Question is when the campaign will end:

1) When Rossi announces he's not running
2) Election day

The DSCC was on the phone to political reporters in "this" Washington, peddling "oppo research" on Murray's prospective Republican Senate challenger Dino Rossi.

snip

The product was like yesterday's Brussels sprouts, allegations about Rossi business partners warmed over from the 2004 and 2008 gubernatorial campaigns. The DSCC eventually put up a web site entitled dirtydealsdino.com

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by: tietack @ Wed Apr 14, 2010 at 14:13:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

WI-Sen

It looks like Thompson is out, too. http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

Combined with Pataki, this are two big disappointments for the NRSC in what has been an otherwise very impressive recruiting cycle.  

20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

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by: MassGOP @ Wed Apr 14, 2010 at 16:32:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Pataki, Bad, Thompson, GOOD

Thompson would come with WAY too much baggage and I think, were he to enter, now would be his peak. I think that after, he would sink and never come back. I think we'd be better off with someone new.  

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by: GOPVOTER @ Wed Apr 14, 2010 at 19:17:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Excellent news

If Gillibrand keeps up her progressive bonafides and keeps herself in the limelight and in check, her and Sen. Klobuchar will be battling it out for Veepstakes in 2016, if it isnt Clinton as the nominee.  (Im pretty confident both parties will move to gender-balanced tickets so long as they have the candidates with the credentials to be a VP pick.)

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by: Andrew @ Wed Apr 14, 2010 at 11:59:54 AM UTC