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Election Liveblog Thread

by: Crisitunity

Tue Apr 13, 2010 at 7:11 PM EDT


It's poll closing time in Florida, so let's get things underway with some liveblogging... starting with the hopefully uneventful special in FL-19.

10:15 pm: Thanks to our friends at Blue Mass Group, we finally have some idea what happened in Massachusetts. Netroots fave Peter Smulowitz upset state Rep. Lida Harkins in the Dem primary in the former Scott Brown seat; he'll face GOP state Rep. Richard Ross next. In the safe ex-Galluccio seat, it looks like Everett city councilor Sal DiDomenico has won, although with a 125-vote margin, his nearest competitor isn't conceding.
10:10 pm: Likewise, according to the AP, TX-23 has been called for Canseco.
9:45 pm: AP has called FL-19 for Deutch.
9:40 pm: Other Texas stuff: things have tightened a bit in TX-23, but Quico Canseco is still on track to get his long-awaited matchup with Ciro Rodriguez; he leads 55-45. In the Board of Education and Supreme Court races, with not quite half reporting, the slightly less nutty Republican leads in each case: Farney in the BoE (62-38), and Lehrmann for the Ct (52-48).
9:35 pm: Based on some literal back-of-the-envelope calculations, in FL-19, with 51% reporting (181 of 356), Deutch has 23,434 votes (61%) and Lynch has 13,949 (36%). The Broward portions of the district, which seem more conservative than the Palm Beach portions, have finished reporting, so it looks like smooth sailing from here.
9:19 pm (James): The AP has called the TX-17 GOP primary for Bill Flores. This is the better match-up for Republicans, as Curnock was a notoriously inadequate fundraiser. Looks like Chet Edwards won't be able to take a ganja break this fall.
8:40 pm (David): For FL-19 results, you need to add Broward and Palm Beach results together. I've added the links below.
8:20 pm: We've got some results coming in in Texas. In TX-17, with 5 of 304 precincts, Bill Flores leads Rob Curnock 4,756-3,767 (56-44), while in TX-23, with 8 of 249 precincts Quico Canseco leads Will Hurd 3,014-2,223 (58-42). Obviously, there's still a lot of reporting to go to see whether that holds.
8:06 pm: Thanks to politics64 in the comments, we finally have some data. Dem Ted Deutch is up 7,406 votes to Lynch's 4,078 (63-35), based on 8 precincts so far plus early voting results.

Here are some links; if you find better-performing ones, please share them in the comments:

Florida: Sec. of State | Broward | Palm Beach

Texas: Sec. of State
Crisitunity :: Election Liveblog Thread
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Election Liveblog Thread | 108 comments
Here's the page to watch CA SD-37 and AD-43.
http://www.sos.ca.gov/elect-re...

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
Are we working with...
open primary rules, or Texas Governor Rick Perry's get-re-elected-with-only-39%-of-the-vote rules?  I can't tell if Bill Emmerson's (R) 40.79% is enough to win him the SD-37 seat tonight, or if he'll go to a runoff with the top ones from each candidate.  I know from the special election to replace Hilda Solis in the House that you needed 50%+1, but that was a for a federal position, and I'm not sure what the rule is for state elections.
[ Parent ]
There will be a run-off.

[ Parent ]
There will be a runoff, between the top vote getters of each party.
So even though Republican Russ Bogh got the second-highest amount of votes, he is not going to the runoff. I remember from the crazy CA-37 special a few years back, where most of the action took place between Democrats Richardson and Oropeza. But only Richardson advanced to the runoff against the no-shot-in-hell Republican and third parties.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
For any Gators out there
here is the link for the Gainesville Mayoral race:
http://elections.alachua.fl.us...
Craig Lowe is the Democrat.
do you know anything about randy wells?

[ Parent ]
Both Randy Wells and Penny Wheat are Democrats
I voted for Well so I want him to win.
[ Parent ]
he's going to win big

[ Parent ]
Sweet.
it appears that Craig Lowe survived the attacks on sexuality, although that margin could in theory be overturned...?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
A win for equality!
Go Gainesville!
[ Parent ]
THE FLORIDA RACE
should easily be 65%+ for our side
i predict
us taking FL with 61%

18, Dem, CA-14 (home) CA-09 (college, next year). social libertarian, economic liberal, fiscal conservative.   Everybody should put age and CD here. :)
I HOPE IT IS BIGGER
run it up herman, leave NO DOUBT
[ Parent ]
I'll go with...
Deutch - 53%
Lynch - 37%
Larose - 7%
McCormick - 3%

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
This will be an easy hold.
This is a heavily Jewish district and Jews are among the most liberal and loyal of Democrats. I remember going on SSP discussing the MA special and of Coakley easily winning the highly concentrated Jewish areas, so I am not concerned here, especially with neither party doing anything here.
agreed
the nrcc spent nothing there
[ Parent ]
Politico
FL-19, probably absentee, Deutch 56-40 so far.

http://www.politico.com/2010/

probably awful turnout

[ Parent ]
Tighter than I would like
I really want to see Deutch over 60. A win is a win though.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
He's well over 60% with Palm Beach County absentees
[ Parent ]
Partial Broward results
Early and absentee voting:

Deutch 56.2
Lynch 40.3
McCormick 3.4

http://www.postonpolitics.com/...

Male, 23, DC-At Large

That is just Broward and probably absentee
You need to clock in to Palm Beach Board of Elections and Broward BOE to monitor both counties. Deutsch has 68% in Palm Beach right now
can you post them?

[ Parent ]
I added both counties
So far the Democrat has about 7K votes and the Republican has 3700 votes
I can't do html crap, just copy each of these into your search
right now the hot race is in GATOR land
almost a dead heat will over 12000 votes counted
I guess it did it for me!
enjoy
Deutsch 7350 to 4,000

thanks for posts

[ Parent ]
You're more than welcome!
Is there a bragging rights result in this race? We know it is a heavy D district, what does the results need to be for our side to be able to shove it into the teabaggers faces?  
[ Parent ]
No
Sadly the headliner on Pwire was something to the effect we will win with less than 60 percent when Obama won 65 percent. We get no good media out of this, if anything the media will claim that the dems win with less comfortable margins to go with there doomsday storyline.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
i would tend to agree BUT
here in FLA the state papers might actually give our side some decent headlines
[ Parent ]
Hopefully so


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Um, we get an extra vote
A pretty much down-the-line liberal vote in the House, that counts as something...a padding of Ms. Nancy's whip counts.

(yes, yes, it's Speaker Pelosi, but I like to think it's Ms. Nancy if you're nasty)  :)

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Political Wire's spin
did a 180.  Very positive writeup for Deutch.

http://politicalwire.com/archi...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Flores and Canseco take the early leads in the TX-17/23 runoffs
Both up 58-42 with a few precincts in.
Who do the progressives want in the TX runoffs?

[ Parent ]
those are republican run-offs
so i have no idea
[ Parent ]
You
root for the most moderate Republican who is essentially already elected when they win the primary. I have no clue who that person is though.    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
well both
TX-17 and TX-23 are Dem-held districts, so the winner of the GOP primary will NOT waltz into a general election victory and there are questions as to which are more electable.
[ Parent ]
No
I was talking about the more safer GOP stuff. You are right, we should win both TX-17 and 23.


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Are there any Democratic runoffs of interest?
Any more and better Democrats opportunities tonight?
[ Parent ]
Tx State Rep Dist 76
Norma Chavez the incumbent is up against Assistant District Attorney Naomi R. Gonzalez.  Its an El Paso County district, no Republican, the winner will take the seat in January.

Norma Chavez, outed Naomi Gonzalez during a debate, calling her a "lesbian gay women".

Its a very interesting contest, Chavez is "slightly" over-bearing, was supportive of the Republican Speaker up until a few sessions ago.  Gonzalez, though, is being funded by the Republican leaning "Texans for Lawsuit Reform".  Many current members of the El Paso Democratic delegation are supporting Gonzalez.  The trial attorneys are supporting Norma Chavez, which is odd, being that Chavez was a key vote in limiting so called "lawsuit abuse" in Texas.

[ Parent ]
TX State Representative District 76
http://enr.sos.state.tx.us/enr...

RESULTS, polls close at 9pm eastern

[ Parent ]
We want the opposite results
The current leaders have more money and may appeal to Hispanics better.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Want Curnock (17) and Hurd (23)
Both are more conservative and do NOT have the ability to self finance and have less hispanic cross appeal (important in 23) due to non hispanic last names.

Also, Curnock in 17 has raised near spit.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
I thought Curnock self-financed in '08?


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Its now 8200 to 4500
In Democrats favor
About how long until we can call it?


Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Deutsch now up in Palm Beach about 12K to 5K
Broward is 3900 to 2600 so about 16K Dem 7600 Rep, better than two to one!
[ Parent ]
i was hoping 65%+
we might make it
[ Parent ]
Counted so far
17 of 93 Precincts Reporting in Broward

0 of 263 Precincts Reporting in Palm Beach??? Can this be early voters?

[ Parent ]
But but but
(1) Lynch was up in his internal polling conducted not by a pollster but his campaign staff;

(2) Democrats can't win Senior voters anymore after HCR;

(3) Jewish voters hate the Democrats now;

(4) Florida is a red state now...

How can this be happening?!?!

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
I am laughing at each point you raise!
They are bragging rights in and of themselves! Thanks for posting them!
[ Parent ]
You forgot
the overwhelming support of super voters
[ Parent ]
One should never forget the Super Voters
I'm beginning to think the Super Voters contacted by the Lynch campaign were actually his paid staff and volunteers!

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Also
5) Limbaugh touted this guy on the radio today ("But this is a great chance nevertheless for a huge pickup")
[ Parent ]
Dang. Now I'm going to have to stop trusting Rush as a political analysts.
Any other prominent people predict the GOP has a reasonable shot here?

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Deutch up 58.60 %to 38% in Broward with 25% counted
He is up 69% to 28% in more Liberal Palm Beach. Palm Beach has far more of the district than Broward. By ED count about 75% Palm Beach, 25% Broward.
Finally the result totals unfroze a little
Broward But but but
(66 of 93 Precincts Reporting

Lynch 42.37% 4,619

Deutch 54.16% 5,904

Palm Beach 88 of 263 Precincts Reporting

Edward Lynch
32.64% 8,112
Ted Deutch
64.75% 16,092

Texas Board of Education looks good (or less bad)
With 9.50% in Marsha Farney leads ultra-crazy Brian Russell 61%-39%.  Since Texas' Board of Education is so closely divided between the nuts and the relatively rational this is an important race and we should hope the margin holds.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


Will she put Jefferson back in their history books?
and remove Calvin!
[ Parent ]
Here's what I posted about her during the first round of the primary:
On her issues page she only has one sentence that hints at any possible craziness: "I will also work to strengthen and preserve our state and national heritage as well as our traditional family values in our curriculum."

By contrast, this is what Russell says: "When the science curriculum was under consideration by the SBOE last year, I authored the Republican Party of Texas (RPT) resolution supporting the adoption of new, rigorous science standards by the SBOE that permit students to think for themselves and ask questions about scientific theories like evolution and man-made global warming.  When adoption of the new science standards was in doubt, I helped coordinate grassroots calls supporting their adoption."

Farney may not be an ideal choice, but she seems a billion times better than Russell.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Broward is all in!
93 of 93 Precincts Reporting
    Percent Votes
Edward Lynch (REP)
Percent of total votes
42.78% 5,837
Ted Deutch (DEM)
Percent of total votes
53.82% 7,342
elevem percent win in Broward is not bragging rights
but I take it!
[ Parent ]
A win is a win
Margins are overrated.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
btw, story on WCBS-radio
First House win for Democrats since the health bill was passed (paraphrasing here). That's a good headline.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I will take that headline!

[ Parent ]
PALM BEACH IS MUCH NICER!
173 of 263 Precincts Reporting
    Percent Votes
Edward Lynch
32.92% 13,661
Ted Deutch
64.30% 26,683
[ Parent ]
AP calls it for Deutch
http://www.postonpolitics.com/...

Male, 23, DC-At Large
If this holds up
and Deutch wins with about 61%, it will be a pretty encouraging sign in this environment.  Much better performance than Garamendi in CA-10, which had similar partisanship though a more competent opponent.  

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
he will win bigger than that

[ Parent ]
TX-14
Fruitless race given how conservative the district is, but anyone have results?  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2

Pruett winning (good)
Winston Cochran DEM 1,004 45.55%
Robert Pruett DEM 1,200 54.44%

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
59% in


26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
Thanks
Pruett's website has been down and this makes me sad, but I know he's an old school guy running a person to person campaign.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2

[ Parent ]
Here's another link for results
http://www.politico.com/2010/

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

62-35
Don't mind admitting I thought it would be closer. Very pleased.
[ Parent ]
Me too
this may be indicative of the narrowing of the enthusiasm gap that recent polls have shown.  If so, a welcome sign.

It's probably mostly indicative of a superior Democratic candidate with a greater than 10-1 cash advantage.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
I, too, am pleased with this. But looking at it 2 different ways......
On one hand, we avoided embarrassment and showed that we're not in worst-case scenario mode where plenty of normally safe districts are in play.  And on the optimistic side, maybe spiderdem is right, and this reflects a narrowing enthusiasm gap that will help our turnout across the board in November?

On the other hand, I'm reminded of the GA-10 special election in June 2007, won eventually in a runoff by Paul Broun to succeed Charlie Norwood.  The lone Democrat, Jim Marlow, came in THIRD in the 1st round of voting there, and barely cleared 20%, despite what was a strongly Democratic environment nationally.

This is to remind us that most of a major party's seats are safe, and proving that point in a special election like yesterday's, or in the Republicans' case in GA-10 in 2007, doesn't mean the party might not be in for a disaster come November.

That caveat out of the way, I do think we can at least breathe a sigh of relief over yesterday as a reminder that not every safe seat becomes a Scott Brown special.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Can't argue
What it also proves is how important it is to actually campaign.
[ Parent ]
Yup, that's the most important point of all. The AP story said...
...that Deutch campaigned very aggressively, no taking victory for granted.

I had no idea what if anything he was doing since we didn't get much news on it in the blogosphere, but I'm glad to hear he worked hard and it paid off, since that's a "how-to" lesson for every Democrat in the country this year.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Florida State House District 4
Good performance (comparatively) for Democrat Jan Fernald, losing 66-34 to Republican Matt Gaetz.  Ray Sansom had held this seat unopposed for years in this Florida panhandle district that McCain won with 70%+ in 2008.

If we're looking for signs that Florida has turned against the Democrats, we're not finding them tonight.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

By modern standards - yes.
But 30 years ago Democrat would probably win this district by the same 66-34)))
[ Parent ]
So I had to double-check you
and you came up roses.  30 years ago, in 1980, Democrat Bo Johnson ran unopposed in this district.  In 1982, he defeated Republican Jack Gardner 69-31.

Well done, my friend!

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Well, you arose my interest...
Now i would like to know somethimg about Bo Johnson political views, but that info is, probably, difficult to find)))
[ Parent ]
So I've done some fact gathering
Here's a pretty picture of Bo Johnson in his hayday.

http://fpc.dos.state.fl.us/pol...

I'm not sure about his political views, but he was elected House Speaker in 1992 and was brought down by a corruption scandal involving a panhandle college, eerily reminiscent of the scandal that brought down outgoing speaker Ray Sansom, whose resignation brought about the vacancy filled through yesterday's special election.  Bo Johnson later served a 2-year prison term for tax evasion.  

http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Thanks a lot!
Well, pretty-looking man and some really striking parallels. As far as his views - well, i dare to guess that he wasn't especially liberal - it's still a Panhandle. But it's only a guess)))
[ Parent ]
Massachusetts results
For anyone following the results in the Democratic primaries for our two state Senate seats: in something of an upset, newcomer Peter Smulowitz beat long-time state Rep Lida Harkins for the Senate seat formerly held by Scott Brown.  The result in the other seat, formerly held by the now-imprisoned Anthony Galluccio, remains unclear - Everett city councillor Sal DiDomenico claimed victory, but Cambridge lawyer Tim Flaherty has refused to concede and asked for a recount.  We'll try to keep track of things at Blue Mass Group as they develop.
Final tallies for FL-19
With 100% of the precincts reporting:

Ed Lynch (R) 24,342 35.08%
Ted Deutch (D) 43,106 62.12%
Jim McCormick (NPA) 1,899 2.74%

There were also 44 write-in votes counted.  69,391 people voted in total.

So Deutch didn't get 65% overall, but did get over 62%.  Since the midterm elections are supposed to skew more Republican anyway, and Obama got 65% of the vote here, hey, if it's only a 3% drop, I'll take it.

And thus
And thus it was that a little part of the ghost of Martha Coakley was banished from the collective psyche of the Democratic Party.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
I can't believe it took me this long to realize
that this election was Ted vs. Ed...

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Just like Ted Kennedy's first Democratic primary in Massachusetts
It was Teddy (Kennedy) vs. Eddy (McCormack). The headline writers had tons of fun with that one.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
Rather good so far
1. Solid win for Democrats in FL-19. Yes, percentage is slightly lower then usual, but not by much, and, after all, this was special with not especially high turnout and in not especially favorable climate

2. As best as that could be (though the most intrigue was on Republican side) results in Texas, where most "crazies" lost

3. Interesting development in Massachusets - Democrats now have young and active (but may be - too liberal (?)) first-time candidate, while Republicans - also relatively young and experienced moderate.

Comparison
FL-19 - 62/35 from Obama 65/34.

CA-10 - 53/43 from Obama 65/33.

Man, did Garamendi suck!

Not an entirely fair comparison.
Harmer raised far more money (he has raised over $1 million for the special in CA-10 and the general in CA-11 combined).  Lynch only reported about $100K as of March.

You were probably engaging in a little bit of ironic hyperbole in saying Garamendi "sucks," but he had a much tougher row to hoe than Deutch.  The reports I heard were that Garamendi wasn't the most competent campaigner though.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Maybe a bit
But I mainly meant in a campaigner sense anyway. Sure, he had it tougher but I'm not sure that produces the whole margin. A 4 point drop from the Obama margin is tiny compared to a 22 point drop. He was the incumbent Lieutenant Governor remember. I'm not suggesting we read too much into it but as I said last night I was expecting a much narrower margin. I think we should take encouragement from the result.
[ Parent ]
I'm with you
on both points.  Garamendi was by all accounts a lackluster campaigner and we should take encouragement from last night.

Just wanted to point out the difference in the two playing fields.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Sure
And there are more. FL-19 has a stronger Democratic history for example. Though I think First Read have it right.

"In the first election contest since health care's passage, Democrat Ted Deutch easily beat Republican Ed Lynch in the special election in Florida to replace Robert Wexler (D) in Congress. As we wrote yesterday, Deutch's margin of victory would be important in this Dem-leaning district, and Deutch got an impressive 62% of the vote. And as National Journal's Ron Brownstein has pointed out, Democrats' best chance of holding on to the House is to win in the blue and purple districts that are part of the Obama/Dem coalition. Yet perhaps the biggest news here has to do with seniors, who heavily populate that Broward/West Palm Beach district. That seniors -- the demographic group Obama has struggled with -- overwhelmingly stuck with the Democrat is pretty significant."

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com...

[ Parent ]
I wonder if there was hard information
about the senior vote, or if First Read is just inferring that seniors stuck with the Democrat from the margin (which I think is a fair inference).  Either way, that is definitely the most satisfying takeaway from this.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Rather satisfying poll here
http://www.tarrance.com/wp-con...

Generic ballot only +1 GOP with likely voters.

[ Parent ]
Rasmussen
even has Obama +1 approval today.  The stars are aligning today somehow.  

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Pff
He has the president +1 over Ron Paul too. I ain't buyin' what he sells one bit.
[ Parent ]
But Rasmussen's daily track is less bad than its other polls......
Rasmussen's Presidential approval daily track at least uses a 3-night rolling average of 1500 respondents, weighted for party ID according to a relatively reasonable system since the party ID is determined from Rasmussen's separate polling of "all adults" and itself relies on thousands of interviews.

The daily track job approval is still hamstrung by a right-wing biased likely voter screen that isn't fully transparent as far as I can tell--but appears to be shoddy based on a recent DailyKos diarist who received a Rasmussen robocall and posted the questions asked, including what appeared to be the screen.  And of course robopolls can have a self-selection bias in response rates.  And even further, Scott Rasmussen's contrived "approval index," that pretends "intensity" of support or opposition is more relevant than total support and opposition, is complete bullshit designed to market a right-wing narrative.

But all that said, the daily track job approval is easily the least bad, methodologically, of all Rasmussen polls for the reasons I pointed out up top in this comment.  And it's safe to say that whatever Rasmussen shows in that daily track is consistently a few points worse for Obama than the reality, meaning a good poll for Obama in Rasmussen really is good news for all of us.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Do you have a link for the Kos diary?
Robopoll details are like delicious candy.
[ Parent ]
Ask and ye shall receive!......
Here's the link:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

And here's the key graf from the diarist's transcription of questions asked:

In how many elections do you vote?: All, Most, About 1/2, Occasionally, Rarely or Never, Unsure


43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Battleground is a great poll, I like those numbers right now. One oddity, though...
...is the ideological breakdown.  They really push people to lean "conservative" or "liberal," leaving only 2% as true moderates.  That's virtually unheard of in polling......the norm is to just give "moderate" as an equal choice and take that answer at face value.

And all national exit polls from every federal general election show close to half of voters self-identifying as "moderates," with "conservatives" in the low/mid-30s and "liberals" orbiting 20%.

But this Battleground poll has fully 60% as saying they at least lean conservative, and close to 40% saying they at least lean left.  Even accounting for a right-leaning midterm, that's an abnormally high percentage of people identifying as "conservative."  But all the other demographics are reasonable for a midterm, so maybe "pushing" respondents on ideology really informs us of something......maybe......except that the massive numbers of people who say they're "moderate" in all other polling end up voting very one-sidedly for Democrats, so that counters the notion of such a strongly right-leaning electorate.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
The only hard information potentially available would be...
...*if* there were abnormally high concentrations of senior votes in specific precincts, and Deutch performed at par or close to par with Obama and Wexler in those precincts.  But somehow I doubt the First Read guys did that......I'm guessing they're merely inferring.  It's a fair inference, though, because frankly a 40% senior population really is abnormally high, and the senior share of the electorate yesterday was probably even higher.  To get 62% means that the hostility of seniors to Obama might be overstated, or might be abating......or maybe this just happens to be a district that concentrates a lot of uncommonly liberal seniors (and I understand there is some political and ideological segregation, by geography, among Florida retirees), so it's not indicative of anything.

All we really have are a lot of guesses that probably add up to overinterpretation.

That said, Chuck Todd who's in charge of First Read is the best corporate media political analyst in America today, so I usually trust the First Read guys' instincts.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
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