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SSP Daily Digest: 4/13 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Tue Apr 13, 2010 at 8:04 AM EDT


  • CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer says she raised $2.4 million in Q1, with $8.7 mil on hand. GOPer Tom Campbell raised $1.6 mil. No word yet from the other Republicans.

  • NC-Sen: Cal Cunningham is launching his first TV ad, in introductory spot. Apparently the buy (so far) is just $45K. Separately, Cunningham told the AP that he doesn't support the card check provisions of the Employee Free Choice Act, despite apparently telling a Teamsters official that he does. Still, the Teamsters are standing by their endorsement of Cunningham.

  • AL-07: Collingwood Research for Shelia Smoot (3/30-4/1, likely Democratic primary voters):

    • Shelia Smoot (D): 33
    Earl Hilliard Jr. (D): 28
    Terry Sewell (D): 12
    Martha Bozeman (D): 6
    Undecided/other: 20
    (MoE: 4%)

  • FL-24: Steak baron Craig Miller says he raised $340K in his first two months in his race to unseat Dem Rep. Suzanne Kosmas. There's still a very competitive GOP primary to contend with, though.

  • MA-04: Surprise, surprise: Laura Ingraham is full of shit. The wingnut radio hostess tweeted some b.s. "rumor" that Barney Frank was going to retire. Frank did not hesitate to call Ingraham's post a "lie."

  • NY-14: Reshma Saujani raised $400K in Q1 in her bid to unseat Rep. Carolyn Maloney in the Democratic primary. Maloney, however, raised $475K and has $2 million on hand.

  • PA-12: Joe Biden, who is originally from Pennsylvania, will return to the state of his birth later this month to campaign for Dem Mark Critz in the upcoming PA-12 special election.

  • PA-17: Another Pennsylvania ballot challenge, this time against Dem Sheila Dow-Ford, has come undone in the courtroom. Dow-Ford is challenging Rep. Tim Holden in the primary.

  • DCCC: D-Trip Chair Chris Van Hollen was a busy man over the congressional recess. In addition to mucking up the HI-01 special election, he also campaigned for Reps. Leonard Boswell, Steve Kagen (twice), Mark Schauer and Gary Peters.

  • Polltopia: Voting is now open in PPP's next pick-a-poll. I don't think we've tried to freep these before, but come on, people - don't you want to see a poll of PA-12?

  • WATN?: Former NM-01 Rep. Heather Wilson is being treated for thyroid cancer. We wish her a speedy recovery. Meanwhile, ex-Rep. Jim Saxton (NJ-03) has joined up with - you'll never believe it - a DC lobbying firm. It never ends.

  • Babka: Did you know that Green's babkas are so dense that airport x-ray scanners cannot see through them? Extra density = extra deliciousness - and, apparently, good insulation against high-frequency electromagnetic radiation. If only Lex Luthor had known!
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    DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 4/13 (Morning Edition)
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    SSP Daily Digest: 4/13 (Morning Edition) | 55 comments
    IA-Gov
    Incumbent Chet Culver (D) has yet another new campaign manager coming on board. Don't bother with the Spinal Tap drummer joke--I beat you to that one at Bleeding Heartland.
    This was
    shall we say, a very bad decision on the part of the campaign.

    The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
    [ Parent ]
    I don't know the inner workings
    and have no idea if the next guy in will be the right guy. Apparently Tom Vilsack's 1998 campaign went through several campaign managers, and the final switch was just a few months before the election.

    But it isn't an encouraging sign, that's for sure.

    [ Parent ]
    TX-17 GOP Runoff
    Today is the runoff in TX-17 GOP primary between Rob Curnock, the 2008 GOP nominee who performed better than expected against Chet Edwards, and Bill Flores, local businessman and self-funder.  
    Craig Miller / New Jersey
    Miller really only raised $130k, as the rest was self-funding.

    Also, the New Jersey filing deadline passed yesterday. Republicans recruited yet another moneybags candidate, local newspaper baron Diana Gooch (well, semi-local, she lives in NJ-12), to take on Frank Pallone. I doubt she has much of a chance, but she could force Pallone to spend the $4 million he has in the bank. This is in addition to the other self-funder, Scott Sipprelle, they're sending in against Rush Holt. Thanks for striking down the Millionaire's Amendment, SCOTUS!

    MA-04
    They wish. Talk about megalomania. Jeez, the GOP wins one low-turnout special in Massachusetts because the Dem candidate was completely incompetent (as has been the case with off-year MA races since Scott Brown was in diapers), and they actually think that they, not Coakley, were the reason Brown won.

    I've lived in that district. Barney Frank hasn't won with less than 68% of the vote in the last decade on those years that he's been challenged at all, and he'll probably stay in office until he dies. The likes of Fox meddling here will just make him win with an even bigger plurality.

    Morans.  

    Obviously even in present climate
    no Republican can beat Frank. But still let's suppose that this seat is open (someday it will..). Will Republicans have at least small chance? If so - which Republican (or who personally)?
    [ Parent ]
    That's a good question
    Susan Gifford is a possibility.  She's a State Rep from Warehem, which is just on the Southeast corner of the district.  Rep Frederick Barrows of Mansfield is another option.  He represents part the arm of the district, which connects its main population anchors of New Bedford and Newton.

    28, Unenrolled, MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    Thanks!
    But Barrows is pro-life as far as i know. Is it no big minus in this district?
    [ Parent ]
    Probably would be okay in the South Coast
    But would not play well in the Northern part of the district.

    28, Unenrolled, MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    I don't know
    the district as constructed has a D+14 PVI, a pretty tough go for any Republican. Now that number is likely inflated by 2004 when Massachusetts had a kind of hometown effect for Kerry and the  Commonwealth will likely lose a seat after the 2010 census, so the borders will likely change a bit. I still don't know if a Republican could win in this district unless the D's fail at nominating a decent candidate and/or the GOP wins a landslide presidential nomination, not going to happen until at least 2016 if it ever happens again in my lifetime.  
    [ Parent ]
    I live in Boston and have friends in Newton
    And I can tell you that Barney Frank's district in its current configuration will never go Republican unless the Democrat has a huge scandal. Newton and Brookline, which are both rich and liberal (and high-turnout) anchor almost a third of the district, working-class but liberal New Bedford and a slice of Fall River tamp down the southern portion, and there's a bit of centrist territory in between, but not enough for a Republican victory.
    [ Parent ]
    Thanks (to both of you)!
    My question was (of course) caused by the fact that Brown won the district (albeit very narrowly) against Coakley. So the thought was "with proper Republican and problematic Democrat (and who knows who will win primary?) that's possible". In addition - Republicans in Massachusetts are not so unifirmly conservative as in many states, so i thought they can put up serious non-conservative candidate
    [ Parent ]
    Exactly.
    Unless basically everyone in Newton and Brookline stayed home (and since Frank is one of them, they won't), there's no way a Repub wins here. Not unless Brookline gets chopped out in redistricting and they throw in someplace conservative like Weston, which they'd be stupid to do. (And probably wouldn't, but never put it past MA Dems...)

    Anyway, all this talk makes me want to get out Dave's app and redistrict Massachusetts.  

    [ Parent ]
    Sooner than you think
    Frank mused in a recent biography that he'd like to end his run in Congress in 2012 (meaning 2010 would be the last time he runs for re-election) and become the first openly-gay Cabinet secretary (for HUD).  

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
    [ Parent ]
    That would make life easier for redistricting
    The Dems could carve up Frank's district without putting any incumbents together in the same district.  
    [ Parent ]
    True,
    but I still say MA-01 is the district that's going away. Boston notoriously hates Western MA, and Olver is old enough to retire (which is too bad, because I've had him as a Congressman and he's excellent). Newton and Brookline also have more money in them than most entire states west of the Mississippi, so they'll probably have some control over whose district they end up in.  
    [ Parent ]
    MA-05
    Tsongas is the newest and most anonymous of the all-Democratic delegation, and she had a tough time winning the open seat in an '07 special. I'd say that MA-01 loses its southwestern portions to MA-02 and pushes eastward into Tsongas territory, forcing her into a primary with Olver (in which he would be favored.) Markey and Tierney can grab the rest of her district.

    Of course, if the GOP manages to win the open seat in MA-10 this year, that will obviously be the seat that gets drawn out, and the rest of the delegation will breathe a sigh of relief.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    But
    Wouldn't their be cries of foul in some quarters if the only female member of the delegation (and the only one since 1982) was seen as being redistricted out of her seat?
    [ Parent ]
    Maybe
    I actually didn't think of that. I guess they could redistrict out the 10th even if a Dem wins this year, but that'll be hard to do since none of the other incumbents live in the southeastern part of the state. But outside of the new 10th district Rep. and Tsongas, everyone in the delegation is fairly entrenched and will be tough to force out. Maybe Olver will just retire and make it easy for everyone.

    20, CD MA-03/NH-01/MA-08
    [ Parent ]
    Interesting. Hadn't heard that.
    I would've thought he was a lifer in that seat. Oh well. Can't blame him for wanting to make history for his demographic.  
    [ Parent ]
    Huckabee hates gay marraige, likes "honest atheists"
    http://tcnjperspective.wordpre...

    Further proof that Huckabee is (A) Not running for president in 2012 and/or (B) likes to speak off the cuff. He really comes off like a bigot in the interview.  

    Didn't he say something like...
    Didn't he say something like "People with AIDS should be quarantined," and said that AFTER it was well-known that HIV was not airborne?

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
    [ Parent ]
    Yeah when he was running for Senate in 1992
    n/t
    [ Parent ]
    I think there's a VERY real chance neither Huckabee nor Palin runs in 2012


    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
    [ Parent ]
    Let's try to keep Prez '12 chatter to a minimum
    Thanks.
    [ Parent ]
    GA-07: 2008 Democratic nominee Doug Heckman to run again.
    Heckman received 38% of the vote against the retiring John Linder, the second-best performance amongst Democratic challengers that year, behind Bobby Saxon in GA-10.  This is Georgia's most vulnerable Republican-held district in terms of PVI.

    http://www.onlineathens.com/st...

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    Great news
    Heckman's a good candidate already looking strong on Act Blue. This part of metro ATL will be interesting in regards to where it goes for the new district GA will be adding for the 2012 elections.  
    [ Parent ]
    Joe Lieberman
    About a year or so ago, I argued that the Democrats should not throw Lieberman out of its caucus.  I want everyone to know that my opinion was wrong.

    http://politicalwire.com/archi...

    It wouldn't hurt my feelings at all if Lieberman was not allowed to caucus with the Democrats anymore.  I'm usually loyal to a fault, but its time to draw the proverbial line in the sand and let him join the Republicans in fact instead of just "reality".

    40, male, Democrat, NC-04

    Need to hold 51 seats in November
    Including Lieberman else it will give him the satisfaction of caucusing with the GOP to give them control. I can just see him now "The American people have spoken..."
    [ Parent ]
    I think we need 52 because
    Nelson and Lieberman could bail together.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    Maybe
    Though I think Nelson probably just retires in 2012.
    [ Parent ]
    I agree with you
    I think they would jump together.
    [ Parent ]
    One question
    is whether Nelson could win reelection in NE as a Republican, or whether he'd be drubbed in a Republican primary. As for Lieberman, I think he would also have trouble in a Republican primary, but I doubt he has much chance to win reelection on any line.

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  
    [ Parent ]
    I kind of think Nelson
    will jump to the Republicans if the majority is on the line and then retire.  He just seems that bitter right now.

    I suspect he will get plowed in 2012 no matter what.  The Nebraska GOP has a VERY strong bench and Nelson is damaged goods after his thumb sucking performance on HCR.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    Bitter?
    WTF is he bitter about?

    "I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
    --  Will Rogers  
    [ Parent ]
    Probably the loss of his political standing,
    albeit self-inflicted.  No doubt he doesn't see it that way.  His voting record post-HCR tells me he's bitter.  It's disgusting.  No on the jobs bill.  Yes on all the Mickey Mouse Republican amendments to the reconciliation health care bill.  His voting record is probably indistinguishable from Jim Demint since HCR.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    He wouldn't
    I think we mighttolerate an Independent that caucuses with us that voted for HCR in CT, but DEFINITELY not in Nebraska!
    [ Parent ]
    Poll
    "I don't think we've tried to freep these before, but come on, people - don't you want to see a poll of PA-12?"

    No, there will be many polls on this race heading up to the special election. I think we should go for New Hampshire, where they'd poll four races instead of one.  

    I found that appealing
    when I looked at the choices for the same reason.  However, there is no lack of statewide polling on NH, and there is even a (crappy) UNH poll of the House races out there.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    They're doing the top 2
    So, as of now, its PA-12 and NH
    [ Parent ]
    Babka & Freeping
    The reason SSPers don't do freeping is that we're not mindless drones who will do whatever you say. Meaning: sorry, I voted for Arizona. ;)  I just really want to see McCain get more nervous.

    Also! Someone should send Michelle Bachmann a babka hat.  

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

    I voted Arizona too!


    My blog
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    28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
    [ Parent ]
    NY-29 - If Massa were still in office
    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36...

    It would have been ugly right now.

    Just three months after Eric Massa was elected to Congress, his young male employees on Capitol Hill began complaining to supervisors that the lawmaker was making aggressive, sexual overtures toward them, according to new interviews and internal documents.

    Yeah
    But it was really because he was against HCR.
    [ Parent ]
    Don't forget
    that legislative whipping is the same as bribery.  
    [ Parent ]
    Kind of odd but I just noticed that
    this is the 3rd cycle in a row where a member  of Congress has resigned or declined to run for reelection due to male on male sexual harassment or related behavior.
    Mark Foley in 06, Larry Craig in 08, and now Massa.
    [ Parent ]
    Your tax dollars hard at work!
    You can set your clock to it.  Can't wait to see who the next one is in 2012!

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
    [ Parent ]
    SC-Gov GOP Primary fundraising
           
                 1st Q         COH
    McMaster     $430,000       $1.4m
    Bauer        $398,000       $1.4m
    Barrett      $393,000       $1.6m
    Haley        $192,000       $0.53m

    Nikki Haley's fundraising isn't great but it should be enough for her to launch a proper campaign. I just really hope some more national Republicans get on her side and endorse her. I really think that with support she could be the next Rubio.

    Nikki Haley
    ...wasn't she the Sanford loyalist of the pack? Not that his downfall had anything to do with her, but it seems like the guilt by association is hobbling her pretty badly.

    27, Democratic, IL-01
    [ Parent ]
    Well that makes one of you
    Here on our Democratic blog, we root for candidates who will lose to Democrats, not so that they can become the next Rubio.  Unless of course Rubio loses, then by all means, please let Redstaters continue to choose the GOP candidate in every race.  
    [ Parent ]
    She should've run for Lt. Governor
    All the oxygen in the gubernatorial race is being taken up by McMaster, Bauer, and Barrett. She's left in last place.
    [ Parent ]
    Why Dems have a decent chance
    for just "normal" midterm losses in 2010.  Meet your directionless, unpopular Republican Party.

    http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    I voted for PA-12
    Partly just for you David, partly because the others we've seen plenty of polls for already.
    HI-01: CQ article speculates w/r/t Hanubasa undercount
    http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmsp...

    First of all, many survey participants - particularly Japanese-Americans - will say they are undecided when they are questioned about their voting preferences.

    snip

    "Let's say there is 15 to 20 [percent] undecided, I would cut that in half in favor of Hanabusa," Boylan said.

    The DCCC poll was 32-32-27-9 (Djou/Case/Hanubasa/Undecided)

    If Boylan is correct, the three candidates were actually tied in the DCCC poll.  

    SSP Daily Digest: 4/13 (Morning Edition) | 55 comments

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