SurveyUSA (4/9-11, likely voters, 3/1-3 in parens):
Rand Paul (R): 45 (42)
Trey Grayson (R): 30 (27)
Others: 6 (11)
Undecided: 19 (19)
(MoE: 4.7%)Dan Mongiardo (D): 35 (45)
Jack Conway (D): 32 (27)
Others: 11 (9)
Undecided: 21 (19)
(MoE: 3.9%)
There’s not much movement in the Republican Senate primary in the Bluegrass State, where Rand Paul is maintaining a 15-pt. lead over establishment choice Trey Grayson. That comes despite fundraising having trailed off significantly for Paul (maybe his supporters dug up all the bullion they could find hidden in their yards), but he seems to have already locked in enough TV advertising to keep his substantial edge over the next month.
The real movement is on the Democratic side, where AG Jack Conway, usually down double-digits to Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, is suddenly within 3. (Maybe the attacks on Mongiardo’s first-class business travel hit their mark?) Weirdly, though, the crosstabs seem very odd: while Conway is perceived as more liberal than the pro-life Mongiardo, Conway leads among self-described conservative and pro-life Democrats while Dr. Dan is up among liberal and pro-choice Democrats. Two possible explanations from the digest’s comments thread, both of which are very plausible, are that Mongiardo still has a lot of goodwill among liberals for almost taking down Jim Bunning in 2004, while Conway’s day job as AG may win over lots of law-and-order types.
Finally, for the second poll in a row, SurveyUSA declined to poll head-to-heads, instead just doing a Generic R vs. Generic D (and I know that Rand Paul ain’t no Generic R). This month, Generic R wins 44-41 over Generic D (up from a 1-point gap last time).
RaceTracker Wiki: KY-Sen
I only think that Conway can win in the general, especially if he has backing from conservative dems.
Mongiardo could put up a good fight, but he lost to Bunning in 2004, so I’m going to guess the electorate already knows all about him, while they don’t know much about Conway, leaving him room to grow as the campaign nears the November.
But why the fucking hell aren’t they doing head to heads, there are only four possible permutations of the race, it can’t possibly be that hard to ask: “Who would you vote for if the election were held today, Rand Paul or Jack Conway?” (that’s the preferred match-up here I’d say, but same thing for all the other permutations)
… but if it turns out to be a Mongiardo/Paul matchup, I may root for Paul.
Well, “root” is too strong a word. Really, since I don’t live in Kentucky, it’s a bit immaterial, but the point is that if given a choice between a right-wing, anti-gay, anti-HCR Democrat and a hard-core libertarian Republican, I may prefer the latter.
True, I generally can’t stand hard-core libertarians, who usually strike me as privileged pricks who simply want to justify their hedonistic lifestyles. But at the very least, Paul would add an antiwar, civil libertarian, and anti-drug war voice to the Senate.
Ugh, what a choice! Here’s hoping Conway pulls this out!
sometimes they have conservative republicans winning a majority of AA’s or old white republicans winning the youth while losing the older voters. dems losing women by a lot, but not men. if these were states or elections where that makes sense sure, but it never is. I’ve decided to ignore the crosstabs b/c the end results are usually good.
That is just hi-larious. “Dug up all the bullion”. Laughing out loud. This must be why Tina Fey’s segments on SNL are such a laugh riot. Y’all really have such a great sense of what is funny. I am sure you guys (Democrats that is) are going to do fantastic in the upcoming elections.
November is coming.
For why Conway’s up among conservative voters, here’s another theory: Conway seems to do slightly better among older voters (the family name?) while Mongiardo does better among younger ones (who remember his 2004 run). Older voters tend to be conservative, while younger ones will say they’re liberal.
Conway also does a lot better in Louisville, his base, where there’s a modest population of actual liberals, while Mongiardo is up big in the east, his base, which has mostly conservaDems.
For a Christian conference in Louisville. The entire way there, on the I-71, I saw one Rand Paul sign. Now, I’m sure that there are more signs for other candidates outside people’s actual homes, but Paul’ was the only sign I saw. As for Louisville, it’s like there’s no election at all. People were just minding their own business and were extremely friendly, especially to foreigners like myself.
Oh, and I noted that Humana has it’s headquarters in Louisville. Isn’t that the insurance company featured in Sicko?