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KY-Sen: Conway Makes His Move in Dem Primary

by: Crisitunity

Mon Apr 12, 2010 at 9:59 PM EDT


SurveyUSA (4/9-11, likely voters, 3/1-3 in parens):

Rand Paul (R): 45 (42)
Trey Grayson (R): 30 (27)
Others: 6 (11)
Undecided: 19 (19)
(MoE: 4.7%)

Dan Mongiardo (D): 35 (45)
Jack Conway (D): 32 (27)
Others: 11 (9)
Undecided: 21 (19)
(MoE: 3.9%)

There's not much movement in the Republican Senate primary in the Bluegrass State, where Rand Paul is maintaining a 15-pt. lead over establishment choice Trey Grayson. That comes despite fundraising having trailed off significantly for Paul (maybe his supporters dug up all the bullion they could find hidden in their yards), but he seems to have already locked in enough TV advertising to keep his substantial edge over the next month.

The real movement is on the Democratic side, where AG Jack Conway, usually down double-digits to Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, is suddenly within 3. (Maybe the attacks on Mongiardo's first-class business travel hit their mark?) Weirdly, though, the crosstabs seem very odd: while Conway is perceived as more liberal than the pro-life Mongiardo, Conway leads among self-described conservative and pro-life Democrats while Dr. Dan is up among liberal and pro-choice Democrats. Two possible explanations from the digest's comments thread, both of which are very plausible, are that Mongiardo still has a lot of goodwill among liberals for almost taking down Jim Bunning in 2004, while Conway's day job as AG may win over lots of law-and-order types.

Finally, for the second poll in a row, SurveyUSA declined to poll head-to-heads, instead just doing a Generic R vs. Generic D (and I know that Rand Paul ain't no Generic R). This month, Generic R wins 44-41 over Generic D (up from a 1-point gap last time).

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KY-Sen: Conway Makes His Move in Dem Primary | 33 comments
Honestly
I only think that Conway can win in the general, especially if he has backing from conservative dems.

Mongiardo could put up a good fight, but he lost to Bunning in 2004, so I'm going to guess the electorate already knows all about him, while they don't know much about Conway, leaving him room to grow as the campaign nears the November.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

I like SUSA and all
But why the fucking hell aren't they doing head to heads, there are only four possible permutations of the race, it can't possibly be that hard to ask: "Who would you vote for if the election were held today, Rand Paul or Jack Conway?" (that's the preferred match-up here I'd say, but same thing for all the other permutations)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

Don't blame SUSA, blame WHAS-TV in Louisville......
WHAS-TV paid for the poll.  I bet they're hurtin' some financially, and they just didn't want to pay for 3 extra head-to-head questions, nor get attacked for bias by the Mongiardo and Greyson camps by paying for a Paul-Conway head-to-head.  Thus, a generic D-vs.-R question.

The one drawback with SUSA for us campaign junkies is that SUSA relies on media contracts, and when times are tough, that just means fewer polls.  What I don't know is how SUSA makes up the lost revenue in maintaining a profit......I hope they're doing OK business-wise, since their polling is very good and we'd like them to survive.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
It couldn't cost that much more, given that SUSA does automated polling
Then again, I'll be the first admit that I have no idea how a pollster like SUSA charges for their polls so...

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
The news guy(s) who wanted to do the poll was probably given a budget...
...and told not one penny more.  And it was probably a damn tight budget.  SUSA probably told him x$ more for the full general trial heat permutations, the dude went to the news director and made the ask for a little more, and the news director said "no, the advertisting dollars are still coming in too low.  The primary is coming up now, that's newsworthy enough."

Anyway, that's my imagined scenario.

But it's a very plausible scenario, especially since it raises the important point that the TV station is looking to inform and draw the interest and viewership of a local and largely apolitical news audience, not campaign junkies throughout America.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
That's reasonable
You're probably right so I won't keep on the subject. Still it's a shame considering that SUSA has generally been one of the better and more open pollsters. That's another good reason to hope that the economy turns around soon, we need more SUSA polls :P

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
WHAS
is known for being cheap when it comes to polls. They did the same thing with the Yarmuth poll a month or so ago.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
I can't believe I'm saying this...
... but if it turns out to be a Mongiardo/Paul matchup, I may root for Paul.

Well, "root" is too strong a word. Really, since I don't live in Kentucky, it's a bit immaterial, but the point is that if given a choice between a right-wing, anti-gay, anti-HCR Democrat and a hard-core libertarian Republican, I may prefer the latter.

True, I generally can't stand hard-core libertarians, who usually strike me as privileged pricks who simply want to justify their hedonistic lifestyles. But at the very least, Paul would add an antiwar, civil libertarian, and anti-drug war voice to the Senate.

Ugh, what a choice! Here's hoping Conway pulls this out!

Dude, Rand Paul is NOT a hard-core libertarian; he's CONSERVATIVE......
There's a myth out there that Rand's views mirror his dad's, and while there is some real overlap, Rand's positions are much more mainstream than Ron's.  And, one of the overlaps is that both Ron and Rand are anti-abortion libertarians, a minority view in the libertarian camp.

Rand likely jibes with his dad on military restraint, but there's no indication that distinguishes Rand from Mongiardo; most Democrats, even centrist ones these days, don't want another Iraq.

I just don't think Rand Paul is quite as nutty as a lot of Democrats want to believe.  Don't get me wrong, there is surely material there to be exploited, and more than would be available against Greyson, and we certainly will fare better in November against Rand than we would against Greyson.  But Rand wouldn't be the runaway Republican frontrunner and also outpolling the Dems right now if he were quite that far out in his views.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
SUSA's crosstabs never make sense
sometimes they have conservative republicans winning a majority of AA's or old white republicans winning the youth while losing the older voters.  dems losing women by a lot, but not men.  if these were states or elections where that makes sense sure, but it never is.  I've decided to ignore the crosstabs b/c the end results are usually good.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
Oh wow! That is quite the dig on Rand Paul and his supporters
That is just hi-larious.  "Dug up all the bullion".  Laughing out loud.  This must be why Tina Fey's segments on SNL are such a laugh riot.  Y'all really have such a great sense of what is funny.  I am sure you guys (Democrats that is) are going to do fantastic in the upcoming elections.

November is coming.

OOOOOOOOOOOOH IM SO SCARED
Go laugh at a Beck chalkboard drawing or something.
[ Parent ]
You're really not a total whiney baby!
   This must be why Republicans can't have a political comedy show!  Even their sarcasm isn't funny.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
I smell a banning
Y'know your first comment and all.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
This is not a first comment by Thane n/t


"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Yes Thane has graced us before
and you know who does a great job in elections?  Thane, that' who.  Thane pulled in a whopping 1.32% of the vote as the Libertarian candidate against Ann Kirkpatrick in AZ-01 in 2008.  So when Thane gives election advice, everybody be sure to listen.  Way to go Thane!

Thane, there must be some loony Libertarian web-site where you can talk about how 9/11 was America's fault with other Rand Paul wannabes all you want.  How's about finding it?

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
When will he get the message?
When his screen name gets to Thane Eichenauer63 perhaps?
[ Parent ]
That didn't take long.


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
You mean I slept through all the fun?
Seriously though, I'm thankful the mods are on the ball with these users. It helps keep this place sane.
[ Parent ]
Sarcasm Usually Works Better...
...when it's not true. Unfortunately, the Tina Fey sketches ARE pretty funny...
[ Parent ]
I know what, what a bastard for besmirching Tina Fey
She was HYSTERICAL this past Saturday as the celeb host.  I havent laughed that hard at SNL in awhile, save for having to watch Justin Beiber.  That kid is one pubic hair away from obscurity.
[ Parent ]
Thane, you give Drell assassins everywhere a bad name.

[ Parent ]
More theory
For why Conway's up among conservative voters, here's another theory: Conway seems to do slightly better among older voters (the family name?) while Mongiardo does better among younger ones (who remember his 2004 run). Older voters tend to be conservative, while younger ones will say they're liberal.

Conway also does a lot better in Louisville, his base, where there's a modest population of actual liberals, while Mongiardo is up big in the east, his base, which has mostly conservaDems.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

Why is he doing well in Louisville but not among liberals?
Conservative black Democrats maybe?
[ Parent ]
Interesting thought.
While the conventional wisdom is that blacks are liberal, they only self-identify as liberal slightly more than whites, at least according to this Gallup poll.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/125...

It's an interesting thought, but I don't think it answers your question because Conway only has a very small lead with blacks and they are a very small portion of the Democratic primary electorate in this poll.

I suspect that the answer to your question is just that SUSA's crosstabs are screwy and always have been.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
...or, the crosstabs could just be wrong......
We all (myself included) are guilty of reading too much into crosstabs.

We all want to block out the standard disclaimer for every pollster's crosstabs in every poll:  "the margin of error for subsamples is higher than for overall results."

I've learned the hard way, through overinterpreting ultimately accurate polls that were disfavorable to Democratic candidates, not to read too much into crosstabs.  They're just plain less reliable than toplines.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Gah
My comment above was pre-coffee as I ran out the door. I now think the most likely explanation is that the cross-tabs are funky.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
More
than likely so. I can't see Conway doing better with conservatives and Dr.Dan with progressives. No way at all.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Was In Kentucky Past Four Days
For a Christian conference in Louisville. The entire way there, on the I-71, I saw one Rand Paul sign. Now, I'm sure that there are more signs for other candidates outside people's actual homes, but Paul' was the only sign I saw. As for Louisville, it's like there's no election at all. People were just minding their own business and were extremely friendly, especially to foreigners like myself.

Oh, and I noted that Humana has it's headquarters in Louisville. Isn't that the insurance company featured in Sicko?

Yeah Humana is there
Don't hate me but I used to work there.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
To
clear my name a little bit, I was just saving for college. I'm currently not doing anything evil to make a living (Dentist).  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
Re: Greg Fischer for Mayor!!!!
Yeah, I saw a headline about the mayor's election in Louisville. Apparently Fischer is in first place in the Democratic primary with around 31%.
[ Parent ]
Yeah I saw it
It really scares me that Tandy is doing so well, he was really a horrible Council President.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
KY-Sen: Conway Makes His Move in Dem Primary | 33 comments

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