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PA-12: NRCC Drops $200K

by: James L.

Fri Apr 09, 2010 at 10:56 PM EDT


Despite the fact that Democrats are perceived to have something of a turnout advantage in the special election to replace the late Jack Murtha (remember: the only truly competitive big-event statewide primaries in Pennsylvania are on the Democratic ticket, and those primaries happen to fall on the same day as the PA-12 special), the NRCC must be smelling an opportunity here. They just dropped some serious dollars on the race:

  1. Opposes Candidate: MARK CRITZ (H0PA12132)
       Office Sought: House of Representatives, Pennsylvania District 12
       Payee: MCCARTHY MARCUS HENNINGS LTD
       Date Expended = 04/09/2010      Amount Expended = $10500.00
       Purpose: MEDIA

  2. Opposes Candidate: MARK CRITZ (H0PA12132)
       Office Sought: House of Representatives, Pennsylvania District 12
       Payee: NATIONAL MEDIA RESEARCH PLANNING & PLAC
       Date Expended = 04/09/2010      Amount Expended = $168290.65
       Purpose: MEDIA

  3. Opposes Candidate: MARK CRITZ (H0PA12132)
       Office Sought: House of Representatives, Pennsylvania District 12
       Payee: THE TARRANCE GROUP
       Date Expended = 04/09/2010      Amount Expended = $15000.00
       Purpose: SURVEY/RESEARCH

James L. :: PA-12: NRCC Drops $200K
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Smart
This is the kind of district they'll need to win if they're going to take back the House. I hope the DCCC isn't napping.

Why are they dropping money on this one?
I haven't seen any polling on this race, so maybe Burns has a real shot to beat Critz here, but I thought it was assumed that this will be the district that gets carved up in redistricting when PA loses a seat in 2012. I guess it would help drive their narrative that Democrats are doomed in November (even though this is the one district in the country that went from Gore to Kerry to McCain).

Well
Look at the third expenditure - it's a poll. Let's see if they release those numbers.

[ Parent ]
So was there a previous expenditure...
...by them for a poll on this race? Because if not, then this is probably just desperate Steele really hoping for an upset, rather than a particularly calculated move.

And he's possibly throwing some money away..although $200k isn't that much, in the context of national committees.

I would think this would be a fairly tough district in which to advertise, thanks to its gerrymandered nature....

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
Steele doesn't pull the strings of the NRCC
And $200K is just the beginning, in all likelihood.

[ Parent ]
Western PA is probably a really cheap media market
Also I don't get the sense that this is somehow not a winnable race for the GOP.  

[ Parent ]
I'd say we definitely have an initial advantage
but it is definitely winnable for them.

Sleepwalking has already been banned since we lost MA-Sen.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
They want both this and HI-01
Both special elections are in May, and R wins in both could drive the narrative for months.

Note to DCCC/DNC
Cat fud has been banned in HI-01.  Do NOT fuck up HI-01.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Agree
Even in a very favorable climate, I could understand why Murtha's seat would be competitive. The situation in Hawaii is just maddening to me. I can't believe we're talking about the possibility of losing this seat, but I guarantee this has way more to do with Ed Case splitting Democratic voters than any kind of antipathy to the Democratic party in HI-01.

I don't understand why he felt the need to go for this seat when he's young enough that he could probably bide his time until Inouye or Akaka retired. Although I'm sure if he ends up in the House, he'd probably run for the Senate if a seat became open. He seems like the worst kind of opportunistic politician.


[ Parent ]
I'm more pissed at the process
Reminds me alot of the Albuquerque Mayoral race. Case is Marty Chavez. Sadly the only thing people will take from it is "GOP win safe seat on Obama's home turf". Nobody takes any notice of the process.

Now, Dems will/would certainly win it back in November but the damage has been done by then. I still think the Don Cazayoux example is uncanny. The special there helped Dem momentum but his defeat later was lost in the crowd.

The DCCC also dropped the ball leaving Djou free to advertize for weeks. I really don't know what they do now. If Obama won't get involved maybe an ad that presents Djou as an impediment to his agenda? Hawaiians history of supporting incumbents might even make that easier.


[ Parent ]
Nice recent example
I was thinking when Bill Redmond won in a 1998 3rd New Mexico due to the Green Party.

[ Parent ]
That one is a better example than the Mayoral race IMHO
The way Albuquerque mayoral races are set up really screw over liberal Democrats (stupid non-partisan, run-offs only at 40% Albuquerque...)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
PoliticalWire says 32-32-27-9
http://politicalwire.com/archi...

Case 32, Djou 32, Hanabusa 27, Undecided 9.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]
PPP may poll it too
This week. MAny people have suggested it, and it will likely make the poll.  

[ Parent ]

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