Smart

This is the kind of district they'll need to win if they're going to take back the House. I hope the DCCC isn't napping.

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by: andgarden @ Sat Apr 10, 2010 at 04:19:07 AM UTC

Why are they dropping money on this one?

I haven't seen any polling on this race, so maybe Burns has a real shot to beat Critz here, but I thought it was assumed that this will be the district that gets carved up in redistricting when PA loses a seat in 2012. I guess it would help drive their narrative that Democrats are doomed in November (even though this is the one district in the country that went from Gore to Kerry to McCain).

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by: NCDem @ Sat Apr 10, 2010 at 04:20:27 AM UTC

Well

Look at the third expenditure - it's a poll. Let's see if they release those numbers.

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by: DavidNYC @ Sat Apr 10, 2010 at 16:29:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

So was there a previous expenditure...

...by them for a poll on this race? Because if not, then this is probably just desperate Steele really hoping for an upset, rather than a particularly calculated move.

And he's possibly throwing some money away..although $200k isn't that much, in the context of national committees.

I would think this would be a fairly tough district in which to advertise, thanks to its gerrymandered nature....

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

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by: arealmlc @ Sun Apr 11, 2010 at 04:33:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Steele doesn't pull the strings of the NRCC

And $200K is just the beginning, in all likelihood.

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by: James L. @ Sun Apr 11, 2010 at 06:12:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Western PA is probably a really cheap media market

Also I don't get the sense that this is somehow not a winnable race for the GOP.  

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by: Jfindl1 @ Sun Apr 11, 2010 at 15:43:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'd say we definitely have an initial advantage

but it is definitely winnable for them.

Sleepwalking has already been banned since we lost MA-Sen.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sun Apr 11, 2010 at 19:01:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

They want both this and HI-01

Both special elections are in May, and R wins in both could drive the narrative for months.

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by: tietack @ Sat Apr 10, 2010 at 04:35:29 AM UTC

Note to DCCC/DNC

Cat fud has been banned in HI-01.  Do NOT fuck up HI-01.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sat Apr 10, 2010 at 04:50:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agree

Even in a very favorable climate, I could understand why Murtha's seat would be competitive. The situation in Hawaii is just maddening to me. I can't believe we're talking about the possibility of losing this seat, but I guarantee this has way more to do with Ed Case splitting Democratic voters than any kind of antipathy to the Democratic party in HI-01.

I don't understand why he felt the need to go for this seat when he's young enough that he could probably bide his time until Inouye or Akaka retired. Although I'm sure if he ends up in the House, he'd probably run for the Senate if a seat became open. He seems like the worst kind of opportunistic politician.

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by: NCDem @ Sat Apr 10, 2010 at 07:12:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm more pissed at the process

Reminds me alot of the Albuquerque Mayoral race. Case is Marty Chavez. Sadly the only thing people will take from it is "GOP win safe seat on Obama's home turf". Nobody takes any notice of the process.

Now, Dems will/would certainly win it back in November but the damage has been done by then. I still think the Don Cazayoux example is uncanny. The special there helped Dem momentum but his defeat later was lost in the crowd.

The DCCC also dropped the ball leaving Djou free to advertize for weeks. I really don't know what they do now. If Obama won't get involved maybe an ad that presents Djou as an impediment to his agenda? Hawaiians history of supporting incumbents might even make that easier.

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by: conspiracy @ Sat Apr 10, 2010 at 13:55:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nice recent example

I was thinking when Bill Redmond won in a 1998 3rd New Mexico due to the Green Party.

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by: Jfindl1 @ Sun Apr 11, 2010 at 00:04:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That one is a better example than the Mayoral race IMHO

The way Albuquerque mayoral races are set up really screw over liberal Democrats (stupid non-partisan, run-offs only at 40% Albuquerque...)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

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by: DGM @ Sun Apr 11, 2010 at 01:16:30 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

PoliticalWire says 32-32-27-9

http://politicalwire.com/archi...

Case 32, Djou 32, Hanabusa 27, Undecided 9.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sun Apr 11, 2010 at 13:57:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

PPP may poll it too

This week. MAny people have suggested it, and it will likely make the poll.  

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by: GOPVOTER @ Mon Apr 12, 2010 at 01:12:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]