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FL-25: Joe Garcia Will Return; SSP Moves Race to Lean R

by: James L.

Fri Apr 09, 2010 at 7:03 PM EDT

Some good news from CQ:

Former Miami-Dade County Democratic Party Chairman Joe Garcia, who came 6 points shy of knocking off Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R) in 2008, is throwing his hat back into the ring for another try this cycle.

Sources say Garcia will announce his candidacy for the now-open 25th district seat mid-next week. Garcia is known to be gathering his campaign team. [...]

Garcia had a meeting with Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen (Md.) in late February after the Diaz-Balart's announced their electoral plans and he was also encouraged by officials within the administration to take another look at the race. He may have finally been convinced to run by the results of a poll that the DCCC conducted on the race in late March.

"A Joe Garcia candidacy would instantly make this seat an excellent pick up opportunity," DCCC spokesman Shripal Shah said on Friday.

This is a seat that's been trending Democratic in recent years. As CQ notes in their full piece, Democrats have turned a 21,000-strong voter registration deficit in 2006 to a voter registration advantage of about 600 at the beginning of 2010. That shift has played out at the Presidential level, too: Obama lost this CD by only 1% in 2008, a big gain from John Kerry's 12% loss in 2004.

Garcia proved himself to be a capable fundraiser and campaigner in 2008, raising $1.8 million and holding GOP Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart to a six-point win. Garcia will need to bring his A-game this time, too, as his likely Republican opponent, state Rep. David Rivera, has announced that he's hauled in over $700K in his first six weeks of campaigning.

UPDATE: With Garcia's decision to enter the race, SSP is changing our rating of this contest from Likely R to Lean R.

James L. :: FL-25: Joe Garcia Will Return; SSP Moves Race to Lean R
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Tossup with a GOP tilt?

I would say lean GOP
David Rivera, the probable GOPer, raised 700k in 6 weeks and has political experience. Given the nature of the cycle and the GOP lean of the district I would say the best case for Dems is currently a lean GOP and with a likely GOP being what i would give it.  

[ Parent ]
is defiantly awesome news :D  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  

Add another name to Red 2 Blue. Happy we're playing offense.

Fantastic news
Joe Garcia is the best. It's a late start, but if anyone can do it he can.

Sure - Democratic recruitment success
(rather rare in 2010). But obviously a lot will depend on Republican recruitment, as well as (100th repeat) general political climate in Fall.

For FL-25 republicans have their bests

But I think J Garcia is in a Toss-Up against they. We need polls for this race.

[ Parent ]
Good news.
  Garcia is an experienced campaigner, a strong progressive, and a great fundraiser.  I only wish he had committed earlier.

24, Male, GA-05

This is the first good news Dems have had all week
I think this district is somewhat immune to national trends. In fact, if a Republican wave really starts to form, I can see where this might turn into our third best pickup opportunity in the House (after cao and DE-AL). Hope it doesn't come to that, though.

I'm choosing to rate this one as tossup.

What about Mark Kirk's seat in Illinois?
Dan Seals fits the district way more than Bob Dold! and is something of a prolific fundraiser.  

[ Parent ]
Right - I would definitely rank that one higher under normal circumstances
But if there was a Republican wave (loss of 40-50+) then I could see this seat stlll being a possibility, based on the facts it's moving toward the Dems for demographic reasons. Whereas I don't think the IL seat would resist the national trends

[ Parent ]
IL-10 is a D+6 district, FL-25 is a R+5

I think FL-25 is a good option but not over IL-10 or LA-02.

Maybe the next, the fourth (after DE-AL, IL-10 and LA-02).

[ Parent ]
DE-AL recently became tougher for Democrats
So - who knows...

[ Parent ]
I think that is debatable
"Tougher" maybe in relative terms.

[ Parent ]
I agree

Maybe republicans chance increases since 0.1% until 0.3%.

[ Parent ]
I fear - from 1 to 30
And i am not especially fond of Carney - after being initial favorite he still losy gubernatorial primary to Markell. And something tells me, that, while Obama-Biden is still more popular in Delaware then in the nation as a whole, it lost considerable share of that popularity even here. At least - the results of some specials in state suggest just that. So - no more 61-62% (BTW - almost Massachusetts numbers) for Democratic ticket here. If economy will not turn to the better quickly (and so far i don't see signs of THAT, just bottoming out basically) there may be surprise in Delaware Nov. 2.

[ Parent ]
The GOP had a perfect storm in MA
Carney > Coakley and Dem turnout will be better by November.

[ Parent ]
Yes, but what if Republican candidate will be better then Brown?
Delaware is a small state where everyone knows everyone... The Republican candidate (as far as  i know) is well known for her philantropy and other activities, and will be helped by Castle candidacy as well. Of course i consider Carney a favorite now, but - lesser favorite then a week ago..

[ Parent ]
has Delaware at large become tougher? Did I miss something?    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Why is the district immune to national trends?
I also don't think having a candidate who worked for the Obama administration is going to help in this district.  

[ Parent ]
Large Cuban vote is probably going to be more open to Democratic voters than it would've been otherwise
Given the GOP's movement towards immigrant bashing and getting into bed with the Tea Party activists, I could very easily see this district buck national trends.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I think the reasons you gave are nullified due to Rubio being the
GOP nominee for senate.  

[ Parent ]
Cubans are not going to vote Democratic here.
They will vote Republican.  They always do.  Some of the younger Cuban voters are trending towards the Democrats, but we are a long way from a real shift in the Cuban vote.

If Garcia wins, it will be because a coalition of non-Cuban Hispanics (a rapidly growing demographic in South Florida), Democratic-leaning whites (of which there are quite a few in South Florida), and blacks canceled out the Republican coalition of Cubans and Republican-leaning whites.  It is going to be a real challenge for Garcia to turn this coalition out in a midterm.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
And if he couldn't do it (the loss is a loss, though he did very well) in 2008 - it will be even more difficult in 2010. The one big plus, though, is that the seat is open this time, and it's far from certain that Republican nominee will have Diaz Balart's popularity and clout. So, while it's not too clear how Democrats may win a seat -  it's quite obvious how Republicans can lose it...

[ Parent ]
What's the Hatian vote in this district?
I gather that many are new voters in S FL, but can't find data whether it's a significant factor in FL-25.

[ Parent ]
It's only about
2.2% of FL-25's population (and probably even less of the electorate), according to the 06-08 ACS. Most of the Haitian community is in FL-17.

[ Parent ]

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