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AR-01, AR-02, AR-03: Primary Polls

by: DavidNYC

Fri Apr 09, 2010 at 11:02 AM EDT

Talk Business, a multi-format Arkansas newsmagazine, is conducting a whole bunch of polling on the state's congressional primaries. They are using an outfit I'm not familiar with, with the memorable name of "The Political Firm." They look to be a Republican pollster, but I don't know if they have any skin in the game (or if Talk Business has any axe to grind).

In any event, Talk Business says all the polls were taken April 6-7th, were of registered voters (sort of an unusual choice, given that the primary is on May 18th), and are unweighted. TPF says it uses IVR (aka robopolls). Talk Business also promises two more rounds of polling before the primary.

AR-01 (D):

Tim Wooldridge: 18
David Cook: 11
Steve Bryles: 9
Chad Causey: 9
Ben Ponder: 5
Terry Green: 1
Undecided: 47
(MoE: ±4.5%)

AR-02 (D):

Joyce Elliott: 21
Robbie Wills: 16
Patrick Kennedy: 11
David Boling: 7
John Adams: 4
Undecided: 41
(MoE: ±4.6%)

AR-02 (R):

Tim Griffin: 20
Scott Wallace: 20
Undecided: 60
(MoE: ±3.6%)

AR-03 (R):

Steve Womack: 21
Cecile Bledsoe: 17
Gunner DeLay: 16
Mike Moore: 8
Bernie Skoch: 5
Steve Lowry: 4
Doug Matayo: 2
Kurt Maddox: 1
Undecided: 27
(MoE: ±4%)
DavidNYC :: AR-01, AR-02, AR-03: Primary Polls
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makes me worry - i don't see her winning a General (Black and "too liberal" to boot). It seems to me Democrats would be better with more moderate candidate

The South being the South
it is hard to imagine Elliott winning a lot of votes outside of her urban Little Rock base.  

Wills is from Conway, which is in Faulkner County north of Little Rock.  McCain won Faulkner County 62-36.  

Based on his ability to get elected in red territory, it seems pretty clear that Wills is strategically better positioned to win the general.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Exactly my thoughts
This district may be not as conservative as some other (exactly because of urban Little Rock base), but it (IMHO) requires a moderate...

[ Parent ]
Why Moderate?
I think you could make a strong argument that Vic Snyder is to the left of many Arkansas politicos, and he's held the district for years. Now if you want to argue that it needs to be a white candidate, well that's something else.

[ Parent ]
Why moderate?
Because it's 2010 - not 2006 or 2008. Quite different political climate - much more hostile to liberals outside of traditional liberal areas (sometimes - even there) and especially in states like Arkansas. It's quite possible that "climate change" was a factor (not ONLY factor of course) in Snyder's decision to retire.

[ Parent ]
His Kids
He retired because he'd rather spend time with his toddlers than campaigning. I don't think it's because he was scared of some national political tide.

[ Parent ]
He said THAT
But neither you, nor me can read his mind. I am sure he took into consideration generally (and especial in states like Arkansas) toxic (especially - for liberals) political atmosphere. If Boxer (in much more liberal California) has a race of her life on hand what can one think about district that went 10% for McCain?

[ Parent ]
I think we have to hope Wills wins to have a shot.

Are we not running anyone in AR-03?


We have one candidate, David Jeffrey Whitaker. There is also Independent Jerry Coon.

My blog
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

[ Parent ]
Griffin vs. Wallace
Okay, Griffin is Karl Rove's pet US Attorney and was supposed to be a big badass of a candidate, right?

So who's Scott Wallace and why are they tied? Wallace's website is okay, and Mike Huckabee endorsed him, which has gotta be a good "get" for Wallace, esp. in a primary, esp. in Arkansas. Can he win the primary? The general?

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

The 1st
Wooldridge? Ugh. I hope someone else is able to attract that mass of undecideds.

More details about him, please
His website creates an impression of may be center-right Democrat, but no more. In fact - Berry was, probably, center-right as well..

[ Parent ]
Check Out Blue Arkansas
There's been a lot of discussion of him and the other candidates over there.

[ Parent ]
Thanks. I checked it
The site considers political situation in state from very liberal angle (i even nicknamed it "Deep Blue Arkansas" for myself), but it still contains useful information. But after all reading i am still not convinced that center-right Democrat is bad for 1st, which went almost 20% for McCain, or that very liberal Black candidate is good for 2nd, which went about 10% for him.

[ Parent ]
not that familiar with these races. Who are the best candidates for both team blue and red?

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

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