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SSP Daily Digest: 4/7 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Wed Apr 07, 2010 at 8:07 AM EDT


  • AZ-Sen: From the Good News for John McCain Dept.: Fresh off the news that he won't face a primary challenge from fellow Dem Nan Stockholm Walden, Tucson City Councilman Rodney Glassman resigned his seat in order to officially launch his run against Johnny Mac... or J.D. Hayworth, if we're lucky.
  • DE-Sen: Mike Castle has hit the un-sweet spot: His repeal-curious approach to healthcare reform has "irritated" some teabaggers (their word), but of course it also risks turning off some of the moderate voters he'll need to win over in order to prevail. Of course, if Chris Coons has any chops, he should be able to work up the Dem base over Castle's "no" vote on the bill itself.
  • WA-Sen: The DSCC launched some attack site against Dino Rossi last week - does anyone ever visit those? - and now Rossi is complaining about the site's contents. The Hotline says it makes him "sound like a candidate." To me, he sounds more like a whiner. Like I say, I doubt anyone actually reads those sites.
  • CA-Gov: Peter Schurman, a founder of MoveOn.org, says he plans to challenge Jerry Brown in the Democratic primary.
  • CT-04: Easton First Selectman and Republican congressional hopeful Tom Herrmann says he raised $383K in his first 23 days in the race, and also has $365K on hand. But here's what I'm not getting: In his intro press release, he said he started the race with $300K in the bank. The only way that's possible, it would seem, is with a self-donation or loan. So there may be less here than meets the eye, in terms of fundraising prowess.
  • FL-13: Air Force veteran and Dem Rick Eaton says he'll challenge GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan. He joins James Golden in the primary field.
  • FL-22: Some creepy comments from GOPer Allen West about his opponent Rep. Ron Klein, telling a gang of teabaggers:
  • Make the fellow scared to come out of his house. That's the only way that you're going to win. That's the only way you're going to get these people's attention. You've got to put pressure on them and make them understand that you've got to come back and live the laws that you establish. Don't let them be a ruling class elite. You've got to let them know that the clock's ticking.

  • GA-07: Winger talk radio host Jody Hice plans to join the GOP field to replace retiring Rep. John Linder.
  • HI-01: So the DCCC is in fact getting into the race... at least, with an ad hitting Republican Charles Djou. P'co says the buy is about $34,000 -  just a toe-dip.
  • IL-10: Whoa mama joe: Dan Seals says he raised $663K in Q1 and has $460K on hand. (The low-ish CoH figures are undoubtedly due to the February primary election.) GOPer Bob Dold! did well, too, taking in $505K ($378K on hand), but Seals sure wins bragging rights for this quarter.
  • NY-15: Charlie Rangel is getting another primary challenger: Assemblyman Adam Clayton Powell IV, son of Adam Clayton Powell, Jr., the guy Charlie Rangel ousted in a primary in 1970. The younger Powell challenged Rangel once before, in 1994, losing 58-33.
  • VA-11: Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity is touting an internal poll from the Tarrance Group of 400 likely Republican voters showing him with a 42-21 primary lead over businessman Keith Fimian. There don't appear to be any general election numbers showing matchups against Rep. Gerry Connolly.
  • RNC: So the RNC had a gangbusters fundraising month in March, raking in $11.4 mil. Bully for them. But what's odd is that they're released this information yesterday - a full two weeks before monthly FEC reports are due. This is not the normal practice of the RNC (or any party committee), which typically only puts out nums much closer to the 20th of each month. Undoubtedly, the embattled Michael Steele had his green eyeshade guys working around the clock in the hopes that a good financial press release would take some heat off of him. Not working.
  • DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 4/7 (Morning Edition)
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    Dnc
    Raises 13million.  Bouts!!!!!!!!!!

    An hour and two minutes...
    I call that some short-lived success, lol.  Interesting how much Health Care boosted both sides though.  

    [ Parent ]
    spectulation that Stupak may retire
    http://politicalwire.com/archi...

    if true, can't say i'd be too sad.


    Retirements
    Are where will will for sure get killed.  I know he is kind of a douche but he did vote yes on health care and gave a pretty good speech on the floor as well.  The main reason we get mad at people is because they hold up the process, vote against us, and talk bad about the party.  Bart Stupak seems to have had a legitimate, although in my opinion, wrong headed concern about abortion.  In the end he made sure that he and the rest of his bloc got what they needed to pass the vote and stood up for the bill when most people were paying attention.  So he is NOWHERE near at the top of my list of dems I wouldn't mind seeing gone.

    [ Parent ]
    You stated it better than I could
    Stupak's grandstanding didn't earn my respect for him, but overall he's not as bad as other Democrats I would like to see be replaced.  Based on my pure ignorance of our MI-01 bench, I think our prospects are better with Stupak than without Stupak.

    40, male, Democrat, NC-04

    [ Parent ]
    no, it wasn't a legitimate concern about abortion
    i get mad at individuals if they are willing to hold hostage the biggest piece of Democratic domestic legislation in a generation in order to make it less progressive.  he's no different from lieberman, except that lieberman had more leverage and thus succeeded in what he was trying to do while stupak didn't.

    [ Parent ]
    I call foul
    2 things

    1. You can not know a man's motives so don't pretend like you are a mind reader.

    2. Electorally speaking, perhaps this is what he needed to do to continue to be elected.  Becuase I can garuntee you a republican wouln'dt have voted for this bill in that district... hell not even good ol' Joseph from New Orleans voted for it for goodness sake.  Anyway, I'm okay with a little posturing to ensure we have his vote in the fututre for things as long as at the end of the day he votes with the party.  Now if he had been in a saf3e district that'd be different but MI 1 is not safe by any means.


    [ Parent ]
    oh please
    1. You can not know a man's motives so don't pretend like you are a mind reader.

    what makes you think i have to be mind reader to come to my conclusion?

    2. Electorally speaking, perhaps this is what he needed to do to continue to be elected.  Becuase I can garuntee you a republican wouln'dt have voted for this bill in that district... hell not even good ol' Joseph from New Orleans voted for it for goodness sake.

    I highly doubt that taking the bill hostage was necessary for him to be re-elected.  but if that's true, then an anti-choice person will hold that district regardless.  that's why i won't be too sad if he retires.  I'll miss his vote on other stuff, but i definitely won't cry if a rabid anti-choicer leaves the democratic caucus.



    [ Parent ]
    well
    "no, it wasn't a legitimate concern about abortion"

    You don't know if he had a "legitimate" concern or not.  To me and you it does not seem legitimate but strangers loopholes have happened (money=free speech).  So you don't know whether or not he believe a loophole exhisted.  So you can't really say one way or the other.

    Which means that we can only look at what he did through a political point of view and judge that.  He got what he wanted which was a for sure maintaining of the stutus quo.  The dems got what they wanted which was universal health insurance (or something close)  And everyone walks away happy.  The goal of this legislation was not to provide low income women with abortions.  If you are pro choice, that is not one of your tenants that al women should have free abortions.  If you are anit choice then you definately don't want the government to be paying for something you see as murdering of the innocent.  

    Furthermore, you should be sad, because we don't have votes to spare on important bills and we need guys in red districts that have incumbency because they are more easily able to stick their necks out then freshman in swingish districts.  I don't agree with Stupak on his abortion believes but he didn't kill the bill.   He worked with the pro choice members of the caucus to make sure everyone could be happy.  That is what we should expect from the republicans and especially democrats who have disagreements.  Otherwise how in the world would we ever govern.  We already know how hard it is without a cooperative minority.  How much harder would it be without a cooperative conservative democratic bloc?


    [ Parent ]
    I'm not a mind reader either
    but my sense is that Stupak's concerns about abortion funding, though misguided in my view, were based on conviction rather than politics.  Stupak is a smart guy, and he had to know that his stand would cost him at least as much politically as it benefited him, which it has.

    I was impressed by his floor speech (against his own amendment), where he railed against the Republicans and spoke in favor of the merits of the bill.  He did not seem like anyone who remotely wanted to actually kill the bill.

    I come out of it strongly disagreeing with Stupak but respecting him as a Congressman and as a person.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    [ Parent ]
    Getting this back to electoral strategy...
    On Point #2, does this sort of "posturing" -- actively complaining and working against a piece of legislation only to give in in the end -- ever help anybody get re-elected? It seems that since the HCR vote, Stupak has been in the same boat as Blanche Lincoln -- facing a primary challenge and an energized GOP both determined to defeat the "traitor".

    27, Democratic, IL-01

    [ Parent ]
    Absolutely not
    Given small margin by which HCR was passed, Stupak could easily thwart it's passage if he would be  really opposed to HCR-reform and wanted to kill it. So his concern about abortions was geniune, but he simply didn't want it to kill the whole very important bill. So he agreed to a compromise he was offered. The behaivoir of a rational politician....

    [ Parent ]
    Pro choice
    As someone who is pro choice I can totally understand where Stupak is coming from on not wanting federal funding of abortions.  In a democracy it really doesn't seem fair for federal dollars to be spent on something that I'm totally oposed to, esp. when it carries little to not public utility.  And if I feel this way then I can only imagine how  Stupak's constituents feel about this...  On top of all that, Kucinich is way worse than Stupak and I dont' hear a lot of people calling for his head.  He votes against things instead of seeking a compromise.  That does little good for democrats and the liberal cause specifically.  

    [ Parent ]
    lieberman also could have killed the bill
    he just wanted the head of the public option in exchange for his vote.  and he had the leverage to do it.  that too is rational, though that doesn't prevent him from being a total douche.  stupak just wanted the most restrictive abortion language possible.  he didn't have the votes to get the most restrictive language, so he had to agree to a compromise.  that too is rational, though that too doesn't prevent him from being a total douche.

    [ Parent ]
    A policy disagreement does not a douche bag make
    Lieberman is a douche bag for many reasons but a policy difference does not a douche bag make.  It is the way in which they handle these differences.  Lieberman said I was elected in good faith that I would vote my conscience.  Maybe he did maybe he didn't and was bought and paid for.  That is something we can't know.  Lieberman is a douche bag for the things he said about Obama that were blatantly false but the HCR bargaining is just part of the game in washington.

    [ Parent ]
    100% agree
    I couldn't formulate it better. I have my share of disagreements with Stupak, but i respect him. Now, and, probably, in future...

    [ Parent ]
    I could attach this to any one of several comment
    But putting this warning here: This is pretty much a derail. The legislative process is a no-no at SSP.

    [ Parent ]
    Stupak didn't succeed?
    I think Stupak did succeed in the fact that Obama signed Executive Order #13535 regarding the restriction of abortion.

    Again, I thought Stupak was grandstanding on this issue, and furthermore he misinterpreted the wording of the bill, but Stupak was genuinely in favor of the Health Care bill.  I think Stupak was politically smart for what he did, especially since he represents an R+3 district.  If he retires, we will most likely have a Republican replace him who would never vote for such legislation.

    40, male, Democrat, NC-04


    [ Parent ]
    Agree 100%
    Or, in best case, we will get Democratic Stupak-clone - as antiabortion as he is....

    [ Parent ]
    Yep
    Unfortunately for Team Blue, an open R+3 seat will be hard to win unless we have a solid Democrat in the mold of Stupak.  Stupak might be the best the Dems can offer in MI-01.  Besides his position on abortion, he seems to support most of the Democratic agenda.  

    40, male, Democrat, NC-04

    [ Parent ]
    he didn't get the language that was in the original house bill
    not that it could have been inserted in the reconciliation bill anyway.  the eo was just a fig leaf.

    [ Parent ]
    No, a president's assurances and his executive order
    isn't a "fig leaf"..

    [ Parent ]
    Nominally it is
    In real terms it changed nothing in the bill as far as progressives were arguing.  And as far as conservatives argue the EO only maintains the status quo which is what the legistlation intended to do according to liberals.

    [ Parent ]
    The end justify the means?
    Regardless of the wording of the original House bill, the executive order was more than just a "fig leaf": it was a compromise that Stupak and his followers could accept and still support the Health Care reform.  While I don't share Stupak's abortion beliefs, the executive order was strong enough to get the anti-abortion, pro-Health Care reform Democrats to jump on board.  I do agree with your premise that Stupak's grandstanding delayed the passage of the bill, but at the end of the day the Democrats won a major victory in the passage of the bill.  Without passage, my Democratic party would have paid a huge price in terms of the 2010 elections.  This is also a major victory for the Democrats in terms that we can compromise effectively without losing a sense of our "big tent" mentality.  Democrats like Stupak can be thorns to our backside, but most of the time these Democrats will help us as opposed to hurting us.


    40, male, Democrat, NC-04

    [ Parent ]
    Besides,
    You can see Stupak as a grand stander only if you see the democratic leadership as moving at a reasonable speed to a vote.  I tend to the think the House leadership purposefully set a deadline in order to facilitate these last second deals knowing that there would be "grandstanding"  (in other words it was all part of the plan so lay off).  

    [ Parent ]
    it was just a face-saving "compromise"
    the eo just re-affirms the hyde amendment.  stupak's original language (in the original house bill) also restricted federal funding for abortion, but effectively went beyond the hyde amendment in its scope.

    [ Parent ]
    Methinks
    DavidNYC would like this conversation to stop based on his warning elsewhere in the thread.

    I tried to keep my one comment limited to Stupak's merits as a Congressman/candidate, but I would have to concede at this point that this whole thing seems like it's well into derail territory.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    [ Parent ]
    Yes, please
    It's well past time to move on.

    [ Parent ]
    I agree
    I've tried to keep my comments tied to the Democrats best prospects of keeping MI-01 in our hands.  Bottom line is that having Stupak run for re-election in 2010 is a better scenario than having an unknown Democrat quantity go against outraged teabaggers.  

    40, male, Democrat, NC-04

    [ Parent ]
    I have mixed emotions
    I don't personally care for Stupak's grandstanding during the Health Care debate (actually I disliked it immensely), but he votes with the party line on most issues.  Also, his district is not a haven for Democrats.  I don't know if we have much of a bench in MI-01.  If we did, it wouldn't hurt my feelings if he did retire.  Stupak is probably going to have a harder time during the 2010 elections than in recent years so it might be a good time for him to retire and for us to get another strong Democrat to take his place.

    Basically I hope he retires if we have a strong candidate that we can rally behind.  If not, I'll take my chances with Stupak again.  I know I won't contribute to his campaign but I won't be upset if he is re-elected either.

    40, male, Democrat, NC-04


    [ Parent ]
    If he retires
    Democrats will, most likely, need another socially conservative candidate to hold this district. Especially - this year.

    [ Parent ]
    An enemy of my enemy is my friend?
    Stupak to Retire?
    First Read: "With just a few days to go before the end of this recess, House Democrats are cautiously optimistic that they could get through it without a single retirement announcement. That said, there is still a concern that some important incumbents in districts that they are uniquely suited could call it quits. At the top of the concern list this week: Michigan Democrat Bart Stupak. The Democrat best known this year as the Democrat who delivered the winning margin of votes for the president's health-care reform bill is said to be simply exhausted. The criticism he received -- first from the left, and then from the right -- has worn him and his family out. And if he had to make the decision now, he'd probably NOT run. As of this writing, a bunch of senior Democrats (many of the same ones who twisted his arm on the health care vote) are trying to talk him into running. The filing deadline in Michigan is still a month away, but veterans of that state's politics are skeptical anyone other than Stupak can hold that district in this political climate."

    Meanwhile, the Detroit Free Press notes Tea Party activists are targeting Stupak for defeat during a series of rallies in Michigan this week.  


    [ Parent ]
    In politics - of course)))


    [ Parent ]
    Harry Reid in denial? Or is he?
    Harry Reid has made comments, including this one, every step of the way suggesting he is ahead in his internal polling.  Could that be true?  Seems more likely he's bluffing, but I seem to recall that public polling in Nevada skews Republican.  The pollster.com average for President in 2008 had Obama up 7, and he won by 12.  That's a pretty unusual amount for the polling to be off.

    http://politicalwire.com/archi...

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    He's probably bluffing, but...
    I still think in the end he wins this thing. His opponents are weak, this is a state that went for Obama substantially, and the Ensign indictment will be hung around the neck of whoever runs against him.

    Never underestimate Harry Reid.


    [ Parent ]
    That is what he has to say
    You are not allowed to say, "Yeah so I'm going to get torn apart in November. The most likely scenario is I lose by at least 5 points. After that I plan to take a year or two off and then return to Washington as a high paid lobbyist." A speech like that doesn't motivate volunteers or donors even if it is true. Although it would be hilarious if somebody said it.  

    [ Parent ]
    Didn't Hostettler say something like that in 2006?
    I can't remember the exact quote, but a reporter asked about some poll that showed him ridiculously far behind and he responded, "That's an accurate assessment of where the race stands now."

    28, Unenrolled, MA-08

    [ Parent ]
    MA-GOV - Things looking up for Patrick.
    http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

    This Rasmussen poll showing Patrick up 5 on Cahill if Mihos is the Republican and 8 on Baker if Baker is the Republican dovetails nicely with some anecdotal accounts I've read recently indicating that Patrick's political standing in Mass has improved recently.  Ras actually has Patrick at 49-48 positive favorability.  It's been awhile since I've seen Patrick above water in that department.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    Well, not by much, really..
    Personally i think Cahill support will decrease by October, as is often the case with Independent candidates (remember Daggett in NJ and last year election?). Then, if Republicans will be clever and nominate Baker (not Mihos), it will be very close.

    In turn, Cahill best chance is a "conservative rebellion" among Republicans, which could conceivably, result in Mihos upset in primary. In SUCH case Cahill's chances will increase very substantially

    If i would have to vote in Massachusetts - i would vote for Baker or even Cahill, but not Patrick - an extremely weak and controversial Governor.


    [ Parent ]
    Cahill and Daggett
    are not comparable.  Cahill is the sitting State Treasurer.  Daggett had never held elective office.  Apples and oranges comparison.  There are many examples of strong indies who have held their ground.  Jesse the Body (the Mind?) Ventura and Dean Barkley in MN for example.

    This poll already illustrates that Cahill's numbers will drastically fall if Baker is the Republican nominee.  They'll be better if Mihos is, no doubt for precisely the reasons you've indicated.

    I am most encouraged by the positive favorability here.  If that is maintained, Patrick will be tough to beat no matter what happens to Cahill's chances.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    [ Parent ]
    I Can't See Baker Winning
    It would seem to be a lot easier to go after Patrick from a more populist-type angle than someone so obviously of and from the country club set as Baker is.

    That seems to be where Mihos and Cahill are going to try.

    I don't mean they're going to run on social issues, but more on the idea that there's a one-party regime on Beacon Hill that's controlled by eggheads and their yuppie admirers who want to overtax, over-regulate, etc. It's not terribly different in substance from what Baker would want to say, but it's something more easily sold by an Ed King or John Silber type rather than someone looking to be a new Bill Weld.  

    For instance, Cahill's new thing is talking about what a disaster Romneycare is, or would be if/when it's implemented nationwide as Obamacare. It's a message that sounds good to a lot of people who voted for Scott Brown, but a health insurance executive (Baker) would make a poor spokesperson for that cause, even if Brown already endorsed him.  

    36, M, Democrat, MD-03


    [ Parent ]
    I know that Cahill is much better known electorally then Daggett
    and i know about strong Inpedendent candidates who persisted to the end and were elected (Ventura, King and other). Still it's difficult for recent Democrat Cahill to run against "one-party rule" (and exactly THAT party, of which he was a member until recently), so i think his appeal (and he undoubtely has considerable appeal among ethnics, working-class Democrats and other similar categories of people) will not be considerd "genuine" by many. But we shall see everything ourselves...

    [ Parent ]
    Just a tip
    SSP is not the place for you to initiate discussion about your general election preferences. I notice that you like to bring up which candidate you would vote for in the hypothetical situation that you were an American citizen living in a particular state, but the truth is that your repetition of such preferences could not be more irrelevant to the horserace discussion here.

    [ Parent ]
    And I just want to clarify my point here
    SSP is not a place to debate about the merits of Republican candidates vs Democratic candidates. This is a Democratic blog, and we're not going to allow threads to be derailed by users who want to debate the merits of Republicans against Democrats in general elections.

    [ Parent ]
    Doesn't the merits of Republican candidates
    directly influence chances of Democratic candidates for election or reelection?

    As far as my preferences - i try (and will truy) not to stress them here, but i am an Independent, so i am bot obliged to vote for Democrats only, isn't i? And if i would write simply "i would never vote for Patrick" - would that be ok? There are lot of people here stating "i would never vote for (Lincoln, Stupak, Barrow etc..)"


    [ Parent ]
    Clarity
    As to your first point, you misunderstand our position. It is perfectly acceptable - in fact, often necessary - to evaluate the qualities of Republican and Democratic candidates alike for the purposes of electoral analysis. What's not okay around these parts is to judge Republicans as better than Democrats for legislative purposes. "Joe Republican is likely to beat Jane Democrat" is fine - we say that all the time. "It would be better if Joe Republican won because the policies he and his party advocates are better" is not okay. That should be a fairly simple distinction.

    As to your second point, we don't particularly like it when people make a big deal of their personal preferences. They don't really help with horserace analysis very much. Personal preferences will come up from time to time, sure - but if they become a focal point (especially when they concern hot-button issues like Blue Dogs), then they tend to lead to unhelpful derails. But we're going to give more leeway to Democrats on this. Since you are not a Democrat, we would advise you to avoid discussions of your personal preferences and stick to horserace analysis.


    [ Parent ]
    Thanks. I will try
    I can't guarantee that 100% of time, but i will try. But if you know the site, which is similar to SSP in purposes ("horserace analysis"), but which allows an expression of personal preferences - i would be really grateful. There are lots of "Democratic Blogs", of "Republican blogs", but considerably less - "Independent blogs" if i may call them that name...

    [ Parent ]
    Nope
    We have these policies in place for good reasons -- we don't want to turn this into a playground for independents to espouse their preferences on every which race. We exist to offer rational, reasoned, bloodless discussion of horserace issues from a Democratic perspective. That's not to say that independents and even Republicans are unwelcome, but they have to play by a stricter set of rules in order to maintain a functional community.

    [ Parent ]
    I already set that i will TRY
    but i winll not swear... After all you always have a possibility to ban me)) But i can swear that i don't have a slightest desire to belong to ANY political party - the more i "contact" with them the more i like to be Independent..

    [ Parent ]
    Thanks
    I am there for a long time..))))

    [ Parent ]
    Yikes - Rubio fundraising.
    $3.6 million for the quarter.  

    http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/ey...

    Unless something drastically changes, the margin by which he beats Charlie Crist will truly be something to behold.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    While Meek's previous fundraising numbers were fine
    this bit (which I've bolded) concerns me -  http://www.miamiherald.com/201...

    According to federal campaign finance reports, Meek had about $3.4 million cash on hand as of Dec. 31, the most recent total available. Republican Marco Rubio had $2.1 million cash on hand and Gov. Charlie Crist had $7.6 million. The current fundraising quarter ends Wednesday.

    He said his campaign spent much of the last fundraising quarter gathering signatures.

    It sounds like Meek has focused on the signature thing in Q1 2010, at the expense of fundraising.


    [ Parent ]
    Well
    Meek needs something to set him apart from the rest of the pack. And hopefully he's been smart enough to build up infrastructure on the ground while collecting signatures. Anyway poor Charlie, his cash advantage is going to evaporate faster than his poll numbers at this rate.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    Not worth it
    That's what Ive been wondering with all this good press he had, ok, how much did getting 130k signatures cost?  Is spending info like that available?  

    Because $1 million isnt 3 days of good press.  


    [ Parent ]
    Collecting signatures could help
    set up a future fund raising base. There is also the free publicity factor, although the value of winning one news cycle over 6 months before the election is probably pretty low.  

    [ Parent ]
    RNC and Michael Steele
    We should creat a pool on the exact time Michael Steele will be forced out as Chairman of the RNC.  Personally I think Steele should stay for nothing more than comic relief.  His days are numbered.  

    40, male, Democrat, NC-04

    NV-Gov: Flippin' the cards around
    An advisor to Rory Reid is starting a group to support Gibbons and try to get him through his primary against Sandoval.  http://www.politico.com/news/s...

    Surely...
    this will do more harm than good? I can't imagine too many GOPers voting for the Reid-endorsed Gibbons over Sandoval because of few ads.

    [ Parent ]
    This kind of thing actually has a track record of working
    I'm trying to remember the races, but I know there have been a couple of instances where a front group was able to torpedo the candidacy of the "most feared" candidate from a different party.  

    [ Parent ]
    The best known is the CA-Gov GOP primary in 2002
    Gray Davis was able to face Bill Simon instead of Richard Riordan.

    [ Parent ]
    Right - I think there are some other examples as well.


    [ Parent ]
    Honestly, I think even Gibbons could beat a Reid in this cycle


    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    PA Governor
    Pennsylvania's 8-year itch:

    "Like clockwork, the governorship here has switched between Democrats and Republicans every eight years since 1954. "

    http://www.stateline.org/live/...

    Joe Cooper


    Virginia and New Jersey
    have that quirk too. Except its whatever party doesn't occupy the White House occupies the state house in those two states. You could argue that Florio and Corzine were vastly unpopular when they ran for reelection, but I'm thinking voters in New Jersey prefer to have a governor who isn't from the same party as the president.

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    Has anybody seen the new IL-GOV PPP poll?
    I can't believe these numbers.

    http://publicpolicypolling.blo...


    It is gloom and doom week for Dems
    at PPP. There post on the Corzine line also cannot be encouraging for Dems in Illinois http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

    [ Parent ]
    I think
    it was the chairman of the Illinois GOP said something along the lines that the only social value people care about this year is whether their losing their house or not. Quinn should attack Brady viciously on economic issues and not on social issues. Because we saw in VA, NJ, MA the "Republican is going to ban abortion/global warming denier/no rights for women" attack line doesn't work this year.  

    19, Male, Independent, CA-12

    [ Parent ]
    Not particularly
    Numbers aren't great but neither are they too terrible either with all these undecideds. In terms of IL-Gov all I would say is the state is more Democratic than New Jersey and Brady is more consevative than Christie.  

    [ Parent ]
    Illinois, more Democratic than New Jersey?
    as someone who goes to school in Illinois and has family in NJ, I would disagree with that. Although I would say that a push by Obama would have more effect in IL than NJ, and I agree that Brady is more conservative than Christie.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Christie is Pro-Life.
    Really? Christie is a pro-life conservative who worked in the Bush administration.

    Hard to say that Chris Christie comes from the left wing of the GOP. He is far to the right of NJ Republicans like Christine Todd Whitman and Tom Kean.

    If NJ could elect a conservative Republican so can Illinois. And in this enviornment running ads about abortion and mamograms wont work.

    If you are out of a job and are losing your home no one really gives a fig about the old wedge issues.



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    [ Parent ]
    Christie
    is certainly conservative and I don't recall anyone saying he was from the "left wing" of the GOP per se (does such a thing even exist anymore?). But he's not as bad as Brady.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Yes
    PVI is D+7 versus D+9. And the difference in the Kerry margin was even greater.  

    [ Parent ]
    Fair enough
    although IL's PVI is slightly inflated by having Obama on the ballot in 2008. Regardless you have a point, I think what I meant is that Illinois is not as liberal as New Jersey, hence while Dem support in IL may be wider it's not necessarily as deep.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Obama and PVI
    Agreed. Which is why I mentioned Kerry who carried IL by about four points more than he carried NJ.

    [ Parent ]
    True
    Although, prior to 2008 wasn't IL's PVI the same or lower than NJ's?

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Gore won Jersey
    By more than he won IL. Big 9/11 effect since then.

    [ Parent ]
    For sure.
    Nevertheless, I still consider New Jersey to be more liberal. Just look at how New Jersey's Democratic reps (excepting, perhaps, John Adler) are all pretty liberal, while Illinois is home to Jerry Costello, Bill Foster, Dan Lipinski, etc. Or how it's as hard for the Illinois legislature to pass civil unions as it is for New Jersey to pass full marriage.

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Left, Right....
    left, Right lets just agree that both NJ & IL are full of equally corrupt politicians!

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    [ Parent ]
    No argument there either!


    [ Parent ]
    Sad how
    that's by far the easiest thing to agree on. (And I'm originally from RI, whose main claim to fame nowadays seems to be Buddy Cianci. It never ends.)

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    Buchanan race
    James Golden is a Democrat or did I read that wrong?  

    Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

    23, Democrat, IA-2


    Golden is a Democrat
    He is a former Bradenton City Councilor.  He is African-American.  Seems like a good guy but not a first-tier candidate.  Neither is this new guy though, and Golden has raised some decent cash.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    Please tell me it's from the right
    PLEASEPLEASEPLEASEPLEASEPLEASEPLEASEPLEASE!!!!!!!! Need cat fud.

    26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

    [ Parent ]
    Dag
    Ron Paulie international stance + "anti-extremism" mentioned as a campaign plank.


    26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

    [ Parent ]
    How on Earth...
    ...would you get to the right of Michelle Bachmann? At that point you're so far to the right you probably come all the way back around to the left again...

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

    [ Parent ]
    You'd probably get pushed into an alternate reality.
    One where Antonin Scalia is a voice for liberalism, Michele Bachmann is sane, Alabama is a hotbed of socialism, and Vermont is a fascist state.

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    [ Parent ]
    Oh God...
    I'm sorry, as much as it would be amusing, I'd really hate to have those crazy bastards on my side...

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    But they'd be sane in the alternate reality!
    Just like bearded Spock is evil.

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    [ Parent ]
    My head hurts...
    :D

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    How to get to the right of Bachman (without facism) - do a Ron Paul
    Another way to look at Ron Paul:

    A long way towards being a right wing anarchist

    Anarchy is anarchy, whether it be from the right or the left.

    Some of the Ron Paul stuff is appealing, in the Bob Barr sense of civil liberties.

    That's why I'm convinced that the Paul types could have wedge issues that split the D coalition.

    But the way Paul types think would also mean the end of Government for everything but perhaps the DoD.


    [ Parent ]

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