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SSP Daily Digest: 4/6 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Tue Apr 06, 2010 at 4:55 PM EDT

AZ-Sen: Maybe she was scared off by that R2K poll that had her down more than 20-odd points? Nan Stockholm Walden, a wealthy attorney and businesswoman who had been the subject of DSCC interest as a candidate in Arizona, decided not to run. That gives Tucson city councilor Rodney Glassman a pretty clear path to the nomination (assuming he runs; he's still in exploratory mode).

CT-Sen: Did you know that Linda McMahon actually held (until now) a political position, in addition to, of course, all the important work she does at WWE? She was on Connecticut's Board of Education (an appointed position, courtesy of Jodi Rell), but just resigned from that role. She says that there are too many restrictions on political activities by board members for her to be able to remain in that position, as she tries to get the GOP Senate nomination.

SD-Sen: John Thune may have dodged having to run against a Democrat in November, but he won't be running purely unopposed. He's still facing off against an independent, perennial candidate Kurt Evans.

WI-Sen, WI-Gov: I had no idea that St. Norbert was the patron saint of fucked-up polls. A poll from Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College is tilted even further in the Republican direction than recent offerings from Rasmussen and the decidedly conservative Wisconsin Policy Research Institute. They find Russ Feingold losing to Tommy Thompson 45-33 (with 14% for an independent/third party, whoever that might be), and beating Generic R by only 40-37. Their gubernatorial numbers find Tom Barrett losing to Scott Walker 44-28 and to Mark Neumann 43-29. Even the GOP primary numbers seem screwy, with underdog Neumann almost even with Walker, who leads 24-23.

CA-Gov: Meg Whitman rummaged around in her purse and found another $20 million to throw on the table, bringing her personal contributions to the race up to a whopping $59 million. Despite her big lead over Steve Poizner in the primary, she may need to prepare to shore things up, as Poizner has been telegraphing that he's going to start going hard at her on the hot-button issue of immigration, in a last-ditch effort to get the state's right-wingers to pay some attention to him.

GA-12: There were some poorly sourced rumors yesterday that Rep. John Barrow -- a conservadem in a swing district facing a primary challenge and the ire of a large swath of his African-American constituency after his HCR "no" vote -- was going to switch parties. Barrow now says he was never even contemplating that, though.

KS-03: After the Kansas City Star reported last week that Stephene Moore was going to run to replace her husband, Dennis, in the 3rd, she started acting coy about it (despite insider assurances that it was a done deal). As expected, though, today she made it official, filing a glaring hole in this R+3 open seat.

LA-03: It looks like the NRCC is finally getting a top-tier participant in the open seat race in the 3rd (despite that winning it won't be much of a prize, as the 3rd is poised to vaporize in 2012 redistricting). Former state House speaker Hunt Downer says he'll announce his candidacy very soon. Probably the surest indication that Downer is serious is that state Rep. Nickie Monica, who may have been the strongest GOPer in the field to date, now says he's getting out of the race to make way for Downer. With attorney Ravi Sangisetty the only Dem willing to stick his neck out for this one, this one's pretty thoroughly in the GOP column.

MN-06: State Sen. Tarryl Clark has been putting up some monster fundraising numbers against Michele Bachmann this cycle; I guess that's what happens when you run against one of the nation's top lightning rods for teh crazy. She pulled in $505K last quarter, bringing her to $1.1 million in total receipts this cycle. Unfortunately, Clark (or her primary opponent Maureen Reed, who's also raised well but hasn't released Q1 numbers yet) will likely have to contend with the presence of spoiler Independence Party candidate Bob Anderson. Anderson pulled in 10% of the vote in 2008 (while Elwyn Tinklenberg lost by only 3%), and he's seeking the IP's endorsement again.

NH-01: RNC committee member Sean Mahoney made a big show out of resigning his post, ostensibly out of disgust with the Michael Steele administration and its free-spending, strip-clubbing ways. Speculation, though, is that Mahoney is planning to run in the GOP primary in the 1st (where Manchester mayor Frank Guinta is considered frontrunner, although so-so fundraising has diminished his luster a bit), which would require him to resign anyway. Mahoney isn't promising anything on that front yet, though.

NY-29: The Democrats have literally chosen Some Dude as their standard bearer in the 29th. The party chairs in the eight counties in the district issued a statement where they said they've chosen a consensus nominee to replace Eric Massa in the special election that may or may not happen. However, they neglected to actually say who that candidate might be. We'll know the masked man's identity next week.

TN-03: A Huck divided against itself cannot stand? In a prime example of one hand not knowing what the other is doing, HuckPAC (Mike Huckabee's national financial arm) and Team Huck Tennessee (the local grassroots operation) are endorsing different candidates in the GOP primary in the 3rd. Team Huck is endorsing former state GOP chair Robin Smith, while HuckPAC (and presumably, Huckabee himself) is going with attorney Chuck Fleischmann.

TN-08: State Sen. Roy Herron had another fine fundraising quarter as he tries to keep this open seat in Democratic hands; he pulled in $490K last quarter, leaving him with more than $1 million cash on hand. It's not an expensive district, media-wise, but he has some strong fundraising competition from humble gospel-singing farmer agribusiness mogul Stephen Fincher, who pulled in over $300K himself and is sitting on $820K CoH.

PA-St. Sen.: As if the Pennsylvania legislature couldn't be held in any lower esteem, here's another fresh scandal. Luckily, this one seems to be falling on the Republican side of the aisle: state Sen. Jane Orie, the body's third-ranking GOPer, was just accused by a grand jury of repeatedly using her staff for political campaigns on the state's dime (include the campaign of her sister, state Supreme Court justice Joan Orie Melvin). Charges are expected, but Orie is shrugging it off, saying it's a politically motivated smear by Democratic Allegheny Co. DA Stephen Zappala.

Filings: The filing deadline in Missouri has passed, on March 30. Rep. Roy Blunt wound up with (count 'em) 10 Republican primary opponents in the Senate race, although state Sen. Chuck Purgason seems the only one worth paying attention to. The number of GOPers vying to take on Ike Skelton in MO-04 also reached the double digits. Probably the biggest surprise and disappointment was in MO-09: not that the DCCC would likely have strongly contested this district that they barely lost in 2008 when it was open, but not a single Democrat showed up to run in this race.

Teabaggers: Here's a nice catch from Ruy Teixeira: teabagging is about as popular as socialism. In slightly-differently-worded questions from two different 2010 polls, Gallup found that 37% had a favorable opinion of "the Tea Party movement" (including 14% of Democrats), while 36% had a positive image of "socialism" (including 17% of Republicans?!?).

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 4/6 (Afternoon Edition)
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Bob Anderson, the Independence Party candidate, did not cost El Tinklenberg a Victory over Michelle Bachmann in 2008. If Anderson was not in the race Tinklenberg would have needed to carry Anderson voters 65-35 in order to  beat Bachmann,  that would have been highly unlikely IMO. In fact my guess is he took more votes from Bachmann, people who were put off by Bachmann but would never vote for a Democrat.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

And more evidence to support this
is shown when looking at presidential vote drop-off in the district, which also shows what percentage of voters voted for Anderson/McCain and Anderson/Obama.  6.92% of McCain voters voted for Anderson vs 1.17% of Obama voters.  So Anderson vote total breaks down to coming from 68% of McCain voters, 11.5% Obama, and 20% came from the combined third party vote for the presidential.

[ Parent ]
NY-29 - The candidate would be Matt Zeller

Zeller, 28, is a Rochester area native with family throughout the 29th Congressional District and roots in the Southern Tier.


Also according to that release Zeller worked as an embedded combat mentor to the Afghan National Army and the Afghan National Police while on deployment in 2008.  Zeller, a friend tells me, got the urge to enlist in the Army following the Terrorist Attacks of September 11, 2001.  While attending college he was a member of the ROTC program.

Young Blood
Of course I have to learn more about him but I like the idea of a young guy with a good Bio who is a political outsider. NY-29 is an uphill fight, maybe some out of the box thinking is what is needed to pull the upset.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
I agree
Especially with the NY legislature being roughly as popular as anthrax right now, and in an anti-incumbent cycle, this may turn out to be a smart move.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
This guy sounds pretty cool
Got an uphill fight, but good resume.  

[ Parent ]
Very uphill.
Against local mayor (not legislator!) with united support and relatively moderate reputation in Republican-leaning district in (very likely) very good Republican year. Chances to win are rather slim, but experience for future races will surely be gained.

[ Parent ]
IL-10 - Fat stacks for Dan Seals

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

Oh good
I was starting to get worried when I saw Dold's total.

[ Parent ]
Good call by Stockholm Walden
Now Glassman needs to get his ass in gear and actually start fundraising, and I don't mean $20 a pop either.  This could be a Kendrick Meek-style race for Glassman, but only if he starts putting up Kendrick Meek-style fundraising numbers.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

Isn't he rich? Isn't the whole deal with him that he's not taking much money and doing the grassroots thing and then he'll self-fund when/if he's facing Hayworth?

Or did I just make that up?

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
There was a comment to that effect in some article
But I've seen no confirmation from Glassman himself.  I do know he's rich, but I don't know whether his "rich" amounts to $2 million or $200 million, and that makes a huge difference in electoral politics.

I'm more heartened by the recent poll showing him outperforming Gabrielle Giffords.  That means he'll do better than anyone else the Dems could put up, so I say go with him.  But I still want to see his money.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

[ Parent ]
CA-Gov: Steve Poizner out with book, gets heat from subject matter

The book is about Poizner's experience teaching for a year at Mount Pleasant High School in San Jose.  Poizner's depiction of the school is less than kind:

He (Poizner) was relieved, he writes, to find his Lexus safe in the parking lot after his first visit. He built a lesson around the corporate history of Kentucky Fried Chicken rather than that of Apple, thinking Col. Sanders would hold more relevance for the students than Steve Jobs.

He ruminates that the underprivileged and, often, uninterested teens on the fringe of Silicon Valley would never match the achievements of young people from his own affluent town of Los Gatos, in the heart of high-tech country.

Probably not the story he wants as he tries to gain some footing in the primary.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

Well, this explains a lot

[ Parent ]
Warm body in KS-03
Awhile back, I was praying for just a warm body in KS-03 and I got one with name recognition but nepotism baggage, which I guess is God's mischevious way of answering.

That said, I'm glad that she opened with "I'm not entitled to this seat." Btw, progressives, she's pro-choice, pro-cap-and-trade, and said she would've voted for the health care bill. Not even the "moderate" Republican in the race will go anywhere near those positions (well, Yoder's been a shaky, occasional pro-choice vote). Also, her website is not awful:


It's not completely filled out yet, but it's decent and....holy crap! The Moores apparently have 7 kids?!?

That is unexpected. Of course, ole Dennis does play a mean guitar, and we know how the ladies feel about that...but damn. No wonder he's tired.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

I screwed up the tag that was supposed to make the picture smaller. My can delete it if you want. The big news to me is that according to her bio, they have 7 kids, not the picture of them....

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
those are grandkids

26, D, MO-05, Hispanic

[ Parent ]
I should've ended that with...


Their actual deal is that they been married 20 years, but each had some kids from previous marriages, is that about right?  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
I think so
I obviously have a very nacient sense of internet humor.
But yes, each have a couple of kids from previous marriages.

On another note, Stephanie Moore has to carry all of the baggage of incumbancy with none of the perks.  We may have to take this one back in 2012.

26, D, MO-05, Hispanic

[ Parent ]
Adam Clayton Powell IV to challenge Charles Rangel in primary
The son of the guy Charles Rangel beat in the primary back in 1970 to win his Senate seat. Does anyone who knows New York City politics think Powell stands a chance?  

Whoops - House seat, I mean

[ Parent ]
For a second there, I was thinking Andrew Dice Clay.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
If that were the case, I'd definitely support Rangel
Never found Dice Clay funny.  

[ Parent ]
Not familiar with him.
I'd totally vote for Bill Maher and Lewis Black though.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
You mean
the guy who just got convicted for driving while impaired?  Yeah, when your one and only argument to the voters is that you're more ethical than the guy in the seat, announcing immediately after a DWI trial isn't going to help you anyway.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

[ Parent ]
There are spring elections today, mostly just county board and school boards up but also some circuit court races and local referendums nothing too interesting as far as i know. Though for me there is a local school referendum i voted against and in a town near me there is some 19 year old who is on the city council challenging an incumbent mayor.

  As for that poll it seems Wisconsin based pollsters suck badly.

20, male, independent, WI-07.

CA-Gov: Fmr. executive director to run for Dem nod
AZ-SEN Glassman makes it official
On his facebook:

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

And may I just say, holy freaking crap
Glassman is thirty-one years old.  He's Vice Mayor of Tucson, has four advanced degrees (including a PhD, a JD, and an MBA), has run a successful business, founded a large charity, is a practicing attorney, and is an excellent singer.

The only other national politician I can think of who has a comparable record of accomplishment is Bobby Jindal.  And unlike Jindal, Glassman is hella charismatic.

I take back everything I ever said about this guy -- he's the real deal.  He is absolutely ready to run this race, and I'd much rather have him than a dull dishrag like Jim Pederson or a DINO like Phil Gordon.  This is going to be exciting.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

[ Parent ]
AP Says Tea Party Has Black Friends, Can't Be Racist
Speaking of teabaggers, I knew this article would be bad when it began with the names black people have been called (Oreos, Uncle Toms, etc.) supposedly for being teabaggers(!).

It does highlight some black conservatives running in various races and my "favorite" part is the black dude campaigning in the bar with the Confederate flag.

Sometimes I feel responsible for media FAILs because I work in the media. But I decided this crap is totally not my fault. I blame Rupert Murdoch.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

Definately not your fault man
Hopefully no one can blame me for Coakley because I worked in Mass in 2004.
Also, I wonder if the teabaggers that spit on Cleaver had "black friends"?

26, D, MO-05, Hispanic

[ Parent ]
MS-1: Angela McGlowan nets 70% in tea party straw poll
Good news

CQ moves KS-03 from Likely R to Tossup. I think Moore will be a strong candidate, though it's still a 50/50 whether she'll win or not.  

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.

More good news
The strongest candidate from the Republican side (state Rep. Kevin Yoder, chair of the Appropriations Committee) is taking some hits over the budget he crafted:

He opted for cuts to education, which is like the Holy Grail for JoCo's suburban swing voters. And his fundraising wasn't especially great in Q1 since he's supposed to be the guy who can haul in big bucks: 267k, bringing his total to 500k. Moore (hopefully) can raise that for her first FEC report, while Yoder has to spend to fight off the crazies in the primary.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Nick Jordan is going to be the nominee.  He has the I-435 belt locked down unless something has changed in the last couple of months that I don't know about.

26, D, MO-05, Hispanic

[ Parent ]
If Jordan is a nominee
- will usual (in this district) quarrel between moderate and conservative Republicans, which helped Democrats immensely in the past, repeat itself in 2010?

[ Parent ]
Jordan was considered a top-tier opponent in 2008 specifically because he is a conservative that is considered acceptable to the moderates.  His conservative rage is mainly aimed at economic issues (awfully enough, that seems to be an effective message this cycle).  Also, he is pretty solid on education issues; those issues are key to holding on to Republican margins in Johnson County.

Our glimmer of hope lies is Moore (Stephanie) keeping our margins pretty solid in Wyandotte and Douglas and keeping Republicans under 55% in Johnson.  This was a tall order, even for Dennis, for a long time (and he was a popular DA and JoCo Community College regent)

26, D, MO-05, Hispanic

[ Parent ]
that total from Clark is extremely impress considering that it's hardly a wealthy district (it kind of is, but the rich people are reactionaries so not for her purposes) and she is still facing a primary. I wasn't expecting anywhere near that.

Go Tarryl!

Downer must be heavy favorite
in LA-03. He even managed to win  part of it in heavyweights-packed Gubernatorial "free for all" primary in 2003, despite his overall 6th place. And he has very typical background for many voters in this district: formerly a solidly conservative Democrat (of which there were a lot in Louisiana), now - even more solid conservative Republican.

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