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IL-Sen: Giannoulias Nosedives

by: James L.

Tue Apr 06, 2010 at 3:17 PM EDT

Public Policy Polling (4/1-5, Illinois voters, 1/22-25 in parens):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 33 (42)
Mark Kirk (R): 37 (34)
Undecided: 30 (24)
(MoE: ±4%)

It remains to be seen whether or not this mark represents something of a low ebb for Giannoulias in the wake of a recent flare-up of the cloud of bad press related to his family's bank that continues to dog him -- or whether we can take this as a warning sign of an extremely difficult campaign to come. At the very least, the biggest chunk of undecideds are Democrats:

The main reason Giannoulias is behind is that he's getting only 54% of the Democratic vote while Kirk is winning 77% of the Republican vote. It's not that a lot of Democrats are planning to cross over and vote for Kirk, but 36% of them are undecided right now compared to just 16% of Republicans. That suggests Democratic voters don't really know what to make of Giannoulias' problems right now so they're just taking a wait and see approach to the race.

However, Jensen also adds: "There may not be a state in the country where Democrats have a weaker top of the ticket at this point than Quinn and Giannoulas."

That doesn't bode well for the gubernatorial portion of this poll, which will be released later this week.

James L. :: IL-Sen: Giannoulias Nosedives
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Quinn will only survive
because Brady won the Republican primary, and hardcore conservative downstate Republicans never win statewide.

I think what really damaged Democrats most of all were opportunistic challengers to both standard-bearers who severely weakened them both, financially, and otherwise, by running extremely negative campaigns.  

Never say never
Especially considering how toxic Quinn's approvals are.

[ Parent ]
will win just fine. I personally think Hynes would have been the stronger candidate, however there is almost no chance they elect Brady. Brady is more conservative than almost any republican in the state; he opposes abortion in all cases, staunchly supports gun control, and introduced a bill regarding pet euphonizing and He is from downstate and won the primary by bashing Chicago and basically all other parts of the state. Brady is a Michelle Bachman type republican. He may lead in polls for a while but I have no doubt in my mind that Quinn will win.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
I should note that
Kirk hasn't won this yet. Considering all the bad publicity and the fact he's only four points down, I think Giannoulias is still an even bet (probably a slight favorite) to win this seat.  

37-33 tells us very little
The trend is a worry but I don't think panic stations are in order just yet. What is the latest IL Dems can pull a Torricelli here anyway?

[ Parent ]
Giannoulias should step down
for the good of the party.

i don't know much about IL politics, but won't brady bring out the otherwise apathetic conservatives for Kirk? and won't a sad ticket like quinn-giannoulias depress dem turnout? plus, i bet obama doesn't waste political capital on IL until the very end of the election cycle, if at all.

22, male, VA-10

It would be nice
However there isn't a chance in hell it happens. Blago had MUCH worse ethics problems coming from him and he won by 10 points. I know there is a big difference in the sense that 06 was a dem year while this isn't that year. However unless this controversy gets much worse I don't think they would take him off the ballot. The basic fact is that everyone knew of this in the primary and they still elected him. I was rooting for Hoffman (not a huge fan, but didn't want Alexi) however he lost, we now must unite behind Giannoulias for the sake of the party.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Top of Ticket
Surely Reidly-dum and Reidly-dee in Nevada are a worst pair than Brady-Giannioulas? Just thank God that there's only a limited number of competitive congressional seats to be effected down ballot.

Junior is even losing to Gibbons now according to Ras!

[ Parent ]
A lot of us saw this coming
I would have liked to see Bill Foster run for this seat of course we would have lost his house seat and probably is too conservative to codify the base.  

Hoffman just didn't have the time to get the job done and frankly he was a free trader by most accounts and we need more manufacturing in the Midwest of course, not more outsourcing and lies by the likes of Jim Owens and some of those other Friedman loving CEOs.  

Please donate to to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2

This was predictable from the start.
Gianoullius is a personable campaigner, but his background with a bank that's going to be getting negative press for the foreseeable future was always going to give him major problems. The negative campaigning has barely begun, so we won't necessarily see a big recovery. Even a scion to a spotless bank would have a hard time in this environment, much less a shaky bank. I never did understand why IL Dems thought this would all somehow blow over.

If Kirk manages to sell himself as a "moderate" and an outsider, which is likely, the momentum may shift toward him for good. I think the question now is, would Gianoulias stepping out of the race do our prospects more good or harm, and who could replace him?

spent the last ten years in Congress while Gianoullius has just been in politics for four years, and looks like he just graduated college. I would hope Gianoullius isn't so bad he actually makes the 5 term Congressman look like a Washington outsider.  

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

[ Parent ]
Hey Illinois Democrats...
The main reason Giannoulias is behind is that he's getting only 54% of the Democratic vote while Kirk is winning 77% of the Republican vote.

Stop fucking things up for the rest of the country.  Get off your damn asses and do something.  Ugh.

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