Research 2000 for Daily Kos (3/29-31, likely voters):
John McCain (R-inc): 52
J.D. Hayworth (R): 37
Undecided: 11
(MoE: ±5%)
Bruce Babbitt (D): 42
John McCain (R-inc): 48
Undecided: 10
Gabrielle Giffords (D): 34
John McCain (R-inc): 53
Undecided: 13
Rodney Glassman (D): 33
John McCain (R-inc): 52
Undecided: 15
Nan Stockholm Walden (D): 21
John McCain (R-inc): 57
Undecided: 22
Bruce Babbitt (D): 42
J.D. Hayworth (R): 43
Undecided: 15
Gabrielle Giffords (D): 36
J.D. Hayworth (R): 49
Undecided: 15
Rodney Glassman (D): 37
J.D. Hayworth (R): 48
Undecided: 15
Nan Stockholm Walden (D): 22
J.D. Hayworth (R): 53
Undecided: 25
(MoE: ±4%)
Steve Singiser already got there first with the "good news! for John McCain!" joke, so I suppose I'll just play it straight. McMaverick is not only leading all Democratic opposition in the general election, but also defeating right-wing insurgent ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth in the primary by a 15-point margin (some other pollsters have shown it a closer race, in the 10-point ballpark).
Democrats have been increasingly intrigued by this race, out of the possibility that they might have a shot here if the odious Hayworth somehow wins the primary. This poll shows that Hayworth still wins the general (even against ex-Gov. and ex-Interior Sec. Bruce Babbitt, probably the state's most prominent Dem and not one who's expressed any interest in returning to electoral politics), but Dems do poll much better against him. Most notably, their likeliest nominee, young Tucson city councilor Rodney Glassman, loses to McCain by 19 to McCain but 11 to Hayworth. Glassman also fares slightly better than Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, so this should hopefully disabuse everyone of the idea that she should run (and thus open up her competitive seat in AZ-08).
Glassman still faces a possible primary against businesswoman and Democratic party insider Nan Stockholm Walden, who's scoping out the race; Walden doesn't fare well, but that's because she's virtually unknown, even compared with the little-known Glassman (her favorables are 11/3, while Glassman's at 23/15... compare that with John McCain, at 47/46, with only 7% with no opinion).
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