Research 2000 for Daily Kos (3/29-31, likely voters):
John McCain (R-inc): 52
J.D. Hayworth (R): 37
Undecided: 11
(MoE: ±5%)Bruce Babbitt (D): 42
John McCain (R-inc): 48
Undecided: 10Gabrielle Giffords (D): 34
John McCain (R-inc): 53
Undecided: 13Rodney Glassman (D): 33
John McCain (R-inc): 52
Undecided: 15Nan Stockholm Walden (D): 21
John McCain (R-inc): 57
Undecided: 22Bruce Babbitt (D): 42
J.D. Hayworth (R): 43
Undecided: 15Gabrielle Giffords (D): 36
J.D. Hayworth (R): 49
Undecided: 15Rodney Glassman (D): 37
J.D. Hayworth (R): 48
Undecided: 15Nan Stockholm Walden (D): 22
J.D. Hayworth (R): 53
Undecided: 25
(MoE: ±4%)
Steve Singiser already got there first with the “good news! for John McCain!” joke, so I suppose I’ll just play it straight. McMaverick is not only leading all Democratic opposition in the general election, but also defeating right-wing insurgent ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth in the primary by a 15-point margin (some other pollsters have shown it a closer race, in the 10-point ballpark).
Democrats have been increasingly intrigued by this race, out of the possibility that they might have a shot here if the odious Hayworth somehow wins the primary. This poll shows that Hayworth still wins the general (even against ex-Gov. and ex-Interior Sec. Bruce Babbitt, probably the state’s most prominent Dem and not one who’s expressed any interest in returning to electoral politics), but Dems do poll much better against him. Most notably, their likeliest nominee, young Tucson city councilor Rodney Glassman, loses to McCain by 19 to McCain but 11 to Hayworth. Glassman also fares slightly better than Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, so this should hopefully disabuse everyone of the idea that she should run (and thus open up her competitive seat in AZ-08).
Glassman still faces a possible primary against businesswoman and Democratic party insider Nan Stockholm Walden, who’s scoping out the race; Walden doesn’t fare well, but that’s because she’s virtually unknown, even compared with the little-known Glassman (her favorables are 11/3, while Glassman’s at 23/15… compare that with John McCain, at 47/46, with only 7% with no opinion).
RaceTracker Wiki: AZ-Sen
You should be ashamed of your false reporting with regard to your “McMaverick” crack. McCain was never a maverick and never considered himself one, as he recently told Newsweek. I expect a retraction and a formal apology to Senator McCain on Swing State Project letterhead (is there such a thing?).
http://www.politico.com/blogs/…
The levels of self-parody that these people achieve is just unreal. This could have been reprinted verbatin in The Onion and would have been funny.
In another thread on the McCain diary posted by Duffman, I made the comment that McCain dealt with these challenges all the time from people in the Arizona Republican party who didn’t like him. In fact, while I think there has been a number of Arizona Republicans who don’t like McCain, this is his first real primary challenge since getting elected to the Senate, as this link from Wikipedia shows:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E…
I was probably thinking of the face McCain didn’t break 50 percent in the 2008 presidential primary in Arizona. I was really surprised McCain didn’t get a challenge in 2004, particularly with his position on the Bush tax cuts.
I still think McCain will win this won, but I can better understand the position of people who don’t see this as a done deal.
That’s getting to be a little old for a freshman Senator.
And frankly, it’s probably for the best. A McCain loss in this race would energize the teabaggers in a way that no other primary outcome anywhere could. Plus, given that Arizona tilts Republican even in good years and the state Dems are disorganized to say the least, the possibility that Hayworth could win the general is too real for comfort.
If one GOP Senator gets primaried (or, really, voted out in convention) this year, it’ll be Bob Bennett.
that a 52-37 lead is all that impressive, especially for a longtime incumbent. Hayworth may need a break (or two), but you can’t exactly rule out an upset here.