Google Ads


Site Stats

Maps of Pennsylvania Elections

by: Inoljt

Sat Apr 03, 2010 at 8:46 PM EDT


By: Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

A few maps of Pennsylvania's presidential elections are posted below, for your enjoyment. Each map comes with some brief analysis. Note how in each succeeding election, Democratic margins in the Philadelphia metropolis increase, while their margins in the Pittsburgh corridor decrease.

(Note: Because the Times stopped updating before all absentee/provisional ballots were counted, this map does not fully reflect the actual results. I have corrected the discrepancy.)

Maps of Pennsylvania Elections

As the national tide increasingly turns in Senator Barack Obama's favor, Senator John McCain mounts a quixotic attempt to win Pennsylvania. While Mr. McCain improves in the southeastern rustbelt, Democratic dominance in eastern Pennsylvania ensures a double-digit blue margin.

More below.

Inoljt :: Maps of Pennsylvania Elections
Maps of Pennsylvania Elections

President George W. Bush mounts a determined attack on Pennsylvania, coming within 2.5% of Senator John Kerry. Mr. Bush does quite well in the traditionally Democratic Pittsburgh corridor and Republican strongholds throughout the "T." But double-digit losses in Philadelphia's suburbs (and a 400,000 vote deficit coming out of the city itself) prevent Mr. Bush from victory.
______________________________________________________

Maps of Pennsylvania Elections

Without President Bubba holding the line, Republican margins in Pennsyltucky are much higher. Nevertheless, Al Gore closely carries Pennsylvania based on Democratic strongholds in the Philadelphia and Pittsburgh metropolises.

_____________________________________________________

Maps of Pennsylvania Elections

With incumbent Bill Clinton poised to win comfortably weeks before election day, Senator Bob Dole does not seriously contest Pennsylvania. Democrats improve in the east and weaken in the west, while Mr. Clinton sails to a comfortable victory.

______________________________________________________

Maps of Pennsylvania Elections

Governor Bill Clinton romps to a nine-point margin, following three straight Republican victories in the state. Mr. Clinton milks Democratic strength in the industrial southwest for everything it's worth, winning 2-1 margins in a number of counties. More ominously for Republicans, President George H. W. Bush barely loses the Philadelphia suburbs - the first Republican to do so since Senator Barry Goldwater (and before him President William Taft, in 1912).

(Note: Credit goes to the NYT for these amazing images.)

Tags: , , , , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

Nice graphs.
Thanks for this entire series.

No problem; its awesome to have people read it.
[ Parent ]
would love to see
The maps for the last two repub victories so as to provide a contrast.

2010 Race Tracker Wiki

The last Republican victory was Bush I in 1988
Dukakis did very well in Pittsburgh and the rest of the industrial southwest, but only won 67% in the city of Philadelphia. He also won Lackawanna County (Scranton), Erie County (Erie), and Clinton County (north of State College). However, Bush thoroughly trounced him in Philadelphia's suburbs and exurbs, winning 60% in Montgomery, Bucks, and Delaware Counties, and 67% in Chester County.

In 1984, Mondale actually did relatively well in Pennsylvania; he did quite well in the industrial southwest, and won 65% in the city of Philadelphia. He got beaten worse than Dukakis everywhere else, though.


[ Parent ]
In Geraldine Ferraro's memoir...
She recounts how when, about three weeks prior to election night, the Mondale campaign announced they would effectively pull out of Pennsylvania. At that point, she knew it would be an electoral landslide. (Though, she mentions the Mondale camp thought they could still win Massachusetts and Rhode Island.)

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
A fairly recent narrow R win
can be seen here.

PA actually has lots of swingy areas: the southeast outside of Pittsburgh, the northeast outside of Scranton, and (still) the Philadelphia suburbs.  


[ Parent ]
Unfortunately the NYT pictures only go back to 1992.
I did make a map of what southeast Pennsylvania looked like in 1988:

Photobucket

But, yeah, I myself would be quite interested to see what a Republican victory looked like in the state.

http://mypolitikal.com/


[ Parent ]
Well, I suspect a Toomey win, for instance, would look a lot like the '94 Santorum/Wofford results
http://uselectionatlas.org/RES...

That is, the Dem scoring about 75% in Phillie, the GOP with a high single-digit victory in the Philly suburbs, a virtual tie in the SE rustbelt, and a GOP blowout in the "T"

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


[ Parent ]
Disagree
I expect Specter to win the Philly suburbs. Usually, that's enough to win the state, but they've never liked him in the west. And he'll also possibly be weak in the Lehigh Valley, which Toomey used to represent in Congress.  


[ Parent ]
Basically, it's pre-Rendell
Once he became Mayor of Philadelphia, and then Governor, Dems ceased to have turnout problems in Philadelphia and the region.

[ Parent ]
Except for last year
when we managed to lose the supreme court.  

[ Parent ]
It's always hard to motivate in those races
Especially with uncontested DA/Controller races in Phila.

[ Parent ]
I wasn't in town
but I would guess that nobody went on TV in Philly. That's a hard problem to overcome.

Still, if we'd had anything resembling reasonable turnout in the city, we would have won.  


[ Parent ]

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


About the Site

SSP Resources

Blogroll

Powered by: SoapBlox