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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

by: James L.

Fri Apr 02, 2010 at 5:22 PM EDT


We're very proud to announce that we recently welcomed our 8 millionth visitor to the Swing State Project. To help us celebrate, we're looking to hit another couple of important milestones on Twitter and Facebook: we need five more followers on Twitter to hit 1500 and 32 more fans on Facebook to hit 400. Who will put us over the top?

UPDATE: Thanks everybody! We blew right through our Twitter goal, but we're still 18 13 11 5 swingnuts short of an even 400 on Facebook. I know we can do this!

LATER UPDATE: We did it: 401 fans on Facebook! Thanks for your support, everyone!
James L. :: Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 61 comments
Fl-19
this is my district. the special election is on the 13th, early voting starts monday. i saw our candidate, state sen. ted deutch speak last night and he was on fire. he has two tea-baggers running against him. the 19th is a very democratic district and deutch should win easily, but he is not taking anything for granted.
Fortunately for us, the Jewish vote turns out well
They're a huge part of the vote in FL-19, so, luckily, it shouldn't be too much of a struggle to get good turnout.
[ Parent ]
just curious...
...if deutch wins this race by really close margin do you think that will say anything about the upcoming general? by the way  ted is VERY popular in the jewish community here.
[ Parent ]
census: MN has moved up into the Top 5, pushing out ND
of census participation by state so far.
http://2010.census.gov/2010cen...

The Top Five states are: WI (69%), IA (67%), MN (66%), SD (65%), IN (64%).
(The national rate is presently 56%).
It's really kind of curious how the top census participation is clustered in that one area of the country (MI is right up there as well). I wonder why.

the bottom
Forgot to include the bottom: AK (42%) NM (47%) and TX (48%).
Hopefully the wingnuts in TX keep up the good work there and not participate. There's a small chance it could cost TX one of the four House seats they've been projected to gain.
[ Parent ]
Those "top states" have good voter turnout too
Just a though but it seems that MN, WI and IA really bought into the whole progressive movement and that they are more trusting of government as a force to do good so maybe the census is important to them because it's a civic duty (as well as a legal obligation!). That's why you have seen people like Fmr. Senator Wellstone, Senator Feingold and Senator Harkin do so well there.

ND is somewhat like this as well or at least it used to be. That's why I could see Obama winning ND in 2012 rather than KS or NE, he's the perfect mid west progressive, which is somewhat appealing in those western Great Lakes/ northern plains states but sadly not as much of a force as it previously was.

[ Parent ]
Bummer in a way - if MN keeps its 8
Bachmann will likely keep her seat for the next decade. (Her seat is in the middle of the state, probably the easiest to carve up.)
[ Parent ]
Even if Minnesota loses a district
I would prefer to eliminate John Kline rather than Michele Bachmann. Kline is a pretty quiet backbencher, but he is almost as conservative as Bachmann, and neither is going to be the critical vote for any piece of legislation, ever. I'd rather get rid of Kline, who can vote extremely conservatively while seeming sane, than Bachmann, who runs her mouth and tarnishes the entire Republican Party.
[ Parent ]
census non-participation
Everybody loves to latch on to this "wingers won't participate" meme, but the reality is, if you look at the current map and take a look at Texas, county by county, the places with low rates are just overwhelmingly the relatively poor, very Hispanic areas of south and southwest Texas.  If you look at Lubbock (to pick one pretty right-winger-heavy town at semi-random) it's actually running well ahead of the state as a whole.

My view is that we'll probably keep on talking about this overblown "wingers won't participate" story until we're blue in the face, but in reality, the non-participants will be disproportionately the same groups they always are.  

And remember, it matters not only whether Texas picks up 4 house seats versus 3, but also, how those seats are apportioned.  If we can accurately record the massive growth in Hispanic population in S/SW Tx, that will help a lot.

[ Parent ]
Washington Monthly suggests otherwise w/r/t TX and the Census
http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

The national average on the return rate for census forms is 34%. In much of Texas, the more Republican the area, the lower the return rate. In Briscoe County in the Panhandle, McCain/Palin won nearly 75% of the vote -- and 8% of locals are sending in their census materials. In King County, near Lubbock, McCain/Palin won nearly 93% of the vote -- and only 5% of locals are answering the census.

34% for a national return rate is from a few days ago, but I think the data w/r/t --deep red -- TX counties is strong.

[ Parent ]
backing up what he said about the winger myth
[ Parent ]
Wisconsin's gotta feel pretty proud:
All 60 counties as 60%+
[ Parent ]
Well yeah
except we have 72 counties.I have no clue as to why the ones up in the northern part dont show up on the map and i would really like to see the numbers for them :(  [I think i might know why Menominee county doesn't show up but the others im unsure why]

20, male, independent, WI-07.
[ Parent ]
And no returns from
Kalawao County, HI (no surprise, with 150 people in the middle of the ocean)

Duchesne County, UT (gotta be a typo on the census's part, with 14,000 people)

[ Parent ]
I
am currently using Dave's Redistricting App to re-drawn my home state of New Jersey's congressional districts. My plan is to get rid of Scott Garretts's district (the 5th) and try to make Lance's district (the 7th) more friendlier to Dems. I was succesful in getting rid of Garrett's but am having trouble making Lance's district anything better or us than R+3.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
when you work out your best one
Feel free to post it on bluejersey.com We'd love to see it.

Progressive New Jersey news at Blue Jersey.
[ Parent ]
I
think what I'll eventually do is make Lance's district combined with the western part of Garrett's district as to make it a safe GOP district. I'll also move it away from Union and Middlesex counties.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
What do people know about Magellan Strategies?
Some Republican polling firm I never heard of, Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies, just polled the Iowa governor's race and found Branstad beating Culver 50-34. That's in line with other recent polling, but frankly it could have been a lot worse, given that Magellan found Obama's approval rating in Iowa in the low 40s--much lower than other polls I've seen.
Very little
I only recall really hearing of them this cycle. It looks like they are polling for Mark Kirk, among others. But it is unclear whether this IA poll was "indepdendent" or taken on behalf of a campaign.
[ Parent ]
DC Mayor
City Council President Vincent Gray has... finally... filed his official paperwork to run against incumbent Adrian Fenty in the September Demcoratic primary.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

Make no mistake: Gray's candidacy is going to be a formidable one. He's already gotten strong labor backing and the support of many long-time, influential community activists who Fenty has taken for granted in various ways. The contest is sure to be a barn-burner of a referendum on the incumbent's tumultuous tenure.

PLEASE, tell me someone plans on live-blogging this one...

Male, 23, DC-At Large

What's the issue between the two?
marriage equality?
[ Parent ]
Not marriage equality
Both Fenty and Gray are supporters.

Honestly, Gray's only been in the mix for a few days, and thus far he's highlighted very few substantive policy differences from the mayor (though I expect more to unfold over the course of the campaign, particularly in the area of education). It has more to do with Fenty's unitary style of leadership, his controversial attempts at reform, and the way he's been perceived to have ignored the feelings of the native population (i.e., DC's huge African-American community, with whom he used to be quite popular) while catering to the desires of developers and the wealthy, predominantly white residents of Upper Northwest. See Michael Bloomberg in NYC for a rough parallel. Gray, by contrast, is seen as a more traditional DC pol, with a base in heavily AA Ward 7 (Southeast)... for those with a tenuous grasp of city politics, think Marion Barry without the baggage. Expect Fenty's camp to frame the contest in terms of reform versus dysfunction, and Gray to set up the distinction between a city government that's responsive to the needs of ordinary Washingtonians over those of moneyed interests.

Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
Over the top?
we need five more followers on Twitter to hit 1500 and 32 more fans on Facebook to hit 400. Who will put us over the top?

I don't suppose there's babka involved in this SSP contest, is there?

Alas, even if there were, I'm already a fan on Facebook and I'm doing my best not to get sucked into Twitter Not even SSP will change that.

Would you do it for a ganja break?


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Heh
Tempting.
[ Parent ]
Would depend
I wouldnt join Twitter for $20 or $50 shit.
[ Parent ]
I too had been trying to resist
but took the plunge just to help SSP's numbers.  I don't plan on getting back on Twitter EVER, but SSP can now chalk up one more follower...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Thomas J. Moyer
who was chief justice of the Ohio supreme court since 1987 has passed away at age 70.

http://www.dispatch.com/live/c...

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

RIP


50, straight white male, Democrat(Dan Boren/Gene Taylor 2012!), AL-7(born in AL-5)
[ Parent ]
AZ-Sen

From Research 2000 for Daily Kos.

Looks like McCain is sitting okay against Hayworth, and apparently even if Hayworth became the nominee he is still solidly ahead by double digits against potential Democratic challengers.


question
The last part of this article mentions a state Senator running for the state House.  How often does this happen?

http://blog.al.com/live/2010/0...

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

At least in California, it happens a lot.
Thanks to our term limits and that we love recycling so much we even recycle our politicians.

Our current Assemblymembers that were previously Senators include Wes Chesbro (D-AD-01), Jim Nielsen (R-AD-02), Tom Torlakson (D-AD-11), and Charles Calderon (D-AD-58).

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

[ Parent ]
However
Alabama does not have legislative term limits.  That is what makes this so odd.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7
[ Parent ]
Well
it obviously happens a lot in California due to term limits. In Indiana this year state rep Trent Van Haafften is running for Congress and we had a big game of musical chairs that involving a state senator running to succeed Van Haafften.    

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
[ Parent ]
NY-13: One union endorses, one calls McMahon a Judas.
United Food and Commercial Workers Local 1500 endorses McMahon for re-election citing his support for EFCA.

http://www.observer.com/2010/p...

Communications Workers of America, District One
VP compares McMahon to Judas, prompting Charlie Rangel to defend McMahon by saying Jesus forgave Judas.

http://www.silive.com/news/ind...

And Rep. Nydia Velazquez dismissing the question of whether she supports McMahon's re-election because he hasn't asked her and adding that she's extremely disapointed in his vote.  Someone else trying to get brownie points from the Working Families Party?

http://www.observer.com/2010/p...

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

CA-Sen: Fiorina soaring in the GOP primary?
Apparently, Campbell and DeVore spent a recent debate aiming most of their fire upon her.

http://www.ocregister.com/arti...

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Fiorina
has something Campbell and DeVore doesn't have...money. Fiorina can snuff out Campbell and DeVore like how Whitman did to Poizner in an instant. Fiorina's campaign is reaching new levels of hilarity recently though. I guess in order to distract people from her record at HP she needs to turn her campaign into a joke.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Good zinger quote from DeVore
"What you have here are two candidates who understand policy and can debate the details of policy. "The third - absent - candidate can't go beyond bullet points."
[ Parent ]
Both view her as a rival
Campbell sees Fiorina as competing competition for the center, while Devore thinks Carly will be competing for the right's attention in the primary. Campbell and Devore draw few if any votes from each other, which is my theory for why they are going after Fiorina.  
[ Parent ]
MS-01
I don't think this was reported from "YallPolitics Polling Interpretation Division" (3/18)

Generic R-D: 51-42
Childers-Nunellee: 51-42 (that's with a 40% name rec spread)

Don't know what to take from this, but here's the link:
http://www.yallpolitics.com/in...

That is a super weird result
7% decided - on a House race?  Childers over 90% name recognition during his first full term?  Love the top line result, but weird.  And weird how they don't link to the poll and characterize only parts of it.  

Candidate X has a 14 point lead among those who know both candidates is always bullshit.  Most of those who know a relatively unknown candidate X are typically members of candidate X's party.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
They are also typically from
in and around Candidate X's hometown.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Not to mention
Obama disapproval only at 56 percent. Those numbers all look fishy to me.
[ Parent ]
The disapproval doesn't seem horribly fishy to me
Maybe it's a bit low (Obama only got 38% of the vote in MS-01) but other than that, it's not horribly funny.

The other parts, yeah, this poll should be taken with a grain of salt.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
He has similar numbers in places he won
Comfortably. It should be much higher in a R+14 district he lost by more than twenty points.
[ Parent ]
I don't see that as a red flag.
Obama's approval stays pretty consistent with election day 2008 in the Deep South states, because he was already about as low as he could get with whites in the Deep South on election day 2008, and he is at 95% or so with blacks both then and now.

Obama's approvals have suffered more in the Upper South, where he won a fair amount of white voters who have since bailed on him.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Anybody in Delaware \
How's Coon doing? we haven't heard much outside the state since he declared.
I
just finished doing my redistricting model for NJ but I need help on making it into a diary. How do I upload the pics onto the diary?

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
You need to use an image hosting service and put html links to the images to the diary.
I use photobucket, which is pretty painless because it gives you pre-generated html links.
[ Parent ]
I also recommend
Ensuring that your images are no wider than 600 pixels long. (You can edit width on Photobucket if you have to.)
[ Parent ]
The Dailykos FAQ has a section on how to include pictures
in posts and diaries for that site. Probably most if not all of that info would be applicable to SSP.
http://www.dkosopedia.com/wiki...
[ Parent ]
FL-19 - Palm Beach Post endorsed Deutch
Predictable but still good.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
I'm Just Wondering
 How is the Minnesota Governor race doing right now? It's been about a month and I have not heard anything about it.

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

I'll do a diary this week on it
Ive been meaning to and now is a great time to do an update since the delegate electing portion is done.

But the DFL convention count is pretty much tied with Rybak and MAK (Margaret Anderson-Kelliher) getting an almost equal number of committed delegates but with undecided getting a heftier amount than either, I believe.

But the DFL endorsement shouldnt matter as much this time around, as Entenza has tons of money, Dayton has the old folks vote, and then MAK and Rybak, well we'll see if either enter the primary without the endorsement, my hope is that both do.

For those wondering who to root for.  Entenza has the political charm, money, but baggage.  Dayton is now a has been, MAK has the stench of state legislator (speaker of the house no less), while Rybak may get attacked for being too urban and too liberal.  Personally, Im going with Rybak because he's the most electable and there are extremely concrete examples of Rybak's urban renewal of Minneapolis that will help the state as a whole down the road immensely.  

[ Parent ]
California poll re Health bill
A new Times/USC poll shows voters saying by a 46%-29% margin they would be more likely to vote for a politician who had backed the health bill. On immigration, the poll found continued polarization.

http://www.latimes.com/news/lo...

Most of the Democrat districts are pretty safe, outside of CD11.  But the Senate race with Boxer, from comments on this site, looks like a nailbiter.  There might be one or two CDs held by Republicans in which this might be a boost for D candidates. Dont know offhand which ones outside of CD03 in Sacramento area.

Joe Cooper

The ones I know
are CA-44 (though Hedrick's fundraising leaves a lot to be desired) and CA-45, both in Riverside County (though 44 also takes in the southernmost parts of OC).

And awesome numbers on the health bill! All 34 House Dems were smart to vote for it. And I can't wait to see how voters respond to the Reps, especially in CA-03, 44, and 45.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

[ Parent ]
Has
anyone had trouble getting on SSP today? All this morning I was just getting the green SSP logo across the screen and the advertisements on the side with a white blank spot where the content was supposed to be when I attempted to get on SSP. I've never had any trouble getting on here or any other page before.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  
Me too
All fine now. Obviously.
[ Parent ]
We had some issues
With a piece of code causing trouble for users of Internet Explorer. All is fixed now, but you should still switch to Firefox!
[ Parent ]
+1
Firefox is WORLD'S better than IE!
[ Parent ]
No wonder I've had no problem getting onto SSP today
It's the Penguin! (Linux)
[ Parent ]
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 61 comments

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