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AL-03: Josh Segall Drops Out

by: James L.

Fri Apr 02, 2010 at 1:57 PM EDT

Via e-mail:

After much thought and careful consideration, I have decided not to pursue the office of US Representative for Alabama's Third District. So many of you have been incredibly supportive of my run, and I want to thank you from the bottom of my heart for your advice, encouragement, and efforts.  I am immeasurably proud and appreciative of what we have accomplished together.

Segall had a very respectable run in 2008, holding Republican incumbent Mike Rogers to a 54-46 margin despite being outspent by 2-to-1. However, Segall's fundraising never seemed to really get off the ground this year, resulting in his ultimate decision to keep his powder dry.

Unfortunately, the filing deadline for this race passes at 5pm tonight, leaving Alabama Democrats with barely any time to find a warm body to run in his place.

RaceTracker Wiki: AL-03

James L. :: AL-03: Josh Segall Drops Out
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I was hoping to see "April Fool!" at the end of this
Too bad it's April 2. :(

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

Your signature line
...Has rarely seemed so appropriate.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, sadly

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Did he really have to wait til day of?

Yeah, I really did one. I think it left a red mark.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

Keeping his powder dry
For a future run after screwing the party like this?  How much support would he really get?  Just like Beau Biden (at least in my case), he may have lost some capital with the base.

I'm not sure what's going on. From all the articles I've been reading over the months, it seemed like he was basically picking up where he left off in 2008. He had been running since early last summer.

Like I said below, I just hope there's no health issue or any other concern, but at the same time, if there is not, then one has to wonder what you're wondering, how will the party react in the future?

A lot of people really felt that Segall could have beat Rogers.

[ Parent ]
He might have been able to beat Rogers in a more friendly year, but not this one. I'm not sure we really lost much here anyway. He is pro-choice and even worked for Paul Wellstone, but he also was a huge homophobe as a candidate. Spoke out against civil unions, federal anti-discrimination laws, and hate crime laws. These are not exactly the more controversial aspects of gay rights.  Maybe he was playing to the district, but he went way out of his way.

[ Parent ]
that's really not true
it was never on his website, he never talked about it except when asked and it's not possible to have another position in that district.  

and if he couldn't win, I doubt they're going to find a great candidate who could THIS year in Alabama.  

[ Parent ]
THIS year?
No one, sure. But they may wait until 2012. Though, most likely, Legislature will be at least "de dacto Republican controlled" then: Democrats have only 20-15 majority in state Senate after yesterday's switch of one of conservative state Senators to Republicans, so Reoublicans need only 3 seats for majority. And if i remeber correctly - therr are at least 3 conservative Democratic state Senators, who frequently support Republicans and may switch if neccessary. Similar situation (Democratic majority 60-45, but with some conservative Democrats) - in state House. In fact, given conservative voting of Alabama in last decades, it's not surprising at all, much more surprising is that Alabama (unlike, say, Georgia) still has Democratic majority in legislature

[ Parent ]
Let me help urinate on his powder
What a tool.  he couldn't have announced this yesterday... or the day before, or the day before.

[ Parent ]
Just what i expected
He finally understood that "his" year was 2008, not 2010. May be 2012 if Obama will be able to motivate Blacks in record numbers, as he did in 2008, but not 2010.

Where does Segall live?
Democrats control both houses of the Alabama state legislature.  So, even if a Republican wins the governor's mansion, there will be a compromise map.  Considering AL-02 and AL-03 are adjacent, do you think they'd work out a deal to create a more heavily black/Democratic district and a majority white/Republican district for Rogers?  I could see Segall trying for the latter.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Segall lives in Montgomery.

I've said before that I've never been big on Segall's candidacy, but it is disappointing to see him leave the race. With it occurring suddenly at a time like this, I certainly hope everything is alright. I do wonder though, if there is no health issue or family issue, then what will this due to any future attempts at a political career in Alabama? He had the liberal wing of the party fired up and he could beat Rogers.

The interesting thing about Rogers seat is that it was drawn for a Democrat, or, at least drawn to be much more competitive than it has been since Rogers first won. It was originally drawn for former State Democratic Party Chairman Joe Turnham, but Rogers was able to beat Turnham for the open seat.

As far as the Democrats controlling both chambers, if I remember correctly there are a few renegade Democratic Senators who either officially caucus with the GOP, or they have an informal agreement. Basically, it's closer than it seems.

Both chambers have been plagued with retirements and scandals over the past couple of years, and it's very possible that the Republicans end up controlling at least one chamber, and the Governor's Mansion.

[ Parent ]
Well, at the very least, one part of the trifecta would need to be Democratic.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
I wouldn't put money on Democrats controlling anything in Alabama come 2011
With Jim Preuitt switching parties, Republicans now only need to pick up 3 State Senate seats to take control there, and there are three vulnerable open seats for them to target. The Democrats have a better chance of holding the House, as Republican recruitment was pretty poor there (they left 32/60 Dem seats uncontested), but of course, there's always the risk of party-switchers if the legislature ends up close.

[ Parent ]
But Democrats also left
about 30/45 Republican seats in House uncontested...

[ Parent ]
That sucks.
I agree he could have given the party earlier notice so they could field a replacement candidate. I know this was not looking like a realistic pickup opportunity because of the national environment (nevermind the fact that it's a conservative Alabama district), but it's still a letdown to see good candidates like Segall and Chris Craft (who was facing Tom Rooney in Florida) drop out.

I'm guessing our best pickup opportunities are the seats Mark Kirk and Mike Castle are vacating in Illinois and Delaware, respectively.

What a jerk.
Waiting until the last minute like this.  Could the timing have been worse?

For me is not difficult understand Segall

The moment for left the race is not the best, but... what is the problem? We are rating last days AL-03 as Safe or Likely Republican (I too).

I think he bid honestly, but he can not. The people believe not in his chance. I can not be critic with Segall.

Dammit, Segall
This is a winnable district. Maybe not with Segall, maybe not this cycle, but it's winnable. This is a R+9, while next-door Bobby Bright's district is R+16 and Griffith's R+12. The incumbent is weak and not particularly popular (he underperforms most in his base county).

While I thought Segall was a credible candidate with a decent shot at pulling off an upset, now we'll never know what a credible candidate can do against Rogers in this cycle, will we? Huh, Josh? Jerk.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

I of all people know this year will be rough, but I am getting sick of these cowards.


i talked with Josh
I think he made a good decision. The climate is very tough in our state right now. There are a whole host of unique statewide issues. Furthermore even if he were to have won this would have gotten diced up by the all but guaranteed to be Republican Legislature during redistricting.

I think that as much time and effort Josh put in he should be commended.

At the end of the day it would have been tough for him to improve upon his 2008 numbers which were good.

agreed on all points
But waiting til the last day is what makes me go, oh come on!

[ Parent ]
But you have to admit the timing sucks

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Dems do have a candidate in AL-03
Steve Segrist.

There were no Dems to file in AL-01, 04, and 06. Republicans filed in every district (of course, that's not hard, since only two are Dem-held).

Where are you hearing that?
I'm assuming this is the same guy who lost the Treasurer race in '06 to Kay Ivey by 20 points?

[ Parent ]
The Alabama Democratic Party has a list of filed candidates on its website:
[ Parent ]
Thanks for the link. I did not realize the AL Democratic Party had a listing like that. That's pretty cool.

[ Parent ]
party switch
It seems an AL state Senator switched from D to R today.  It is amazing the Ds still have control, but now for only a few more months.  I can't imagine how right wing that place will be and I am a Republican.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

It's already right-wing.
The white Democrats left in Alabama are DINOs, and they're either going to lose or jump ship over the next few years. Just recently, the State Senate passed a constitutional amendment that would "allow" (if it didn't conflict with federal law) the state to opt out of the health care reform bill. Every white Democratic Senator voted for it, while every black Democratic Senator voted against it.  

[ Parent ]
Who else they could be?
Black-majority areas elect black legislators and white-majority - vote heavily Republican on almost all levels (if i am correct - almost 90% of Alabama's whites and even majority of white Democrats voted McCain in 2008).

[ Parent ]

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

[ Parent ]
Anybody in Delaware
How's Coon doing? we haven't heard much outside the state since he declared.

FL-19 - Palm Beach Post endorsed Deutch
Predictable, but still good.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

Wrong thread, amigo!
I think you meant to stick that one in the Weekly Open Thread!

[ Parent ]
I will re-post there, or maybe sit here and ponder some way to connect Eastern Alabama and Palm Beach County.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Politics of warm places?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami."

[ Parent ]
So how many does this make?
Josh Segall, Paula Flowers, Chris Craft, Laura Kelly, Jack McDonald, what's-her-face running for Ohio SoS (Marilyn something?), Todd Book, and possibly others I'm forgetting...and then we've also had recruiting failures in AL-05 and with Roy Cooper in NC-Sen...I'm sure I'm forgetting quite a few.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami."

Marilyn Brown
Marilyn Brown was Jennifer Brunner's hand-picked replacement, who dropped out. (She's a Franklin County official, that being Brunner's home base.) Jennifer Garrison, who is a strongly right-leaning conservadem but also a top-tier candidate was running as the OH Democratic Party/Strickland's preferred candidate, but there were real problems with the base. Recently Maryellen O'Shaughnessy, yet another Franklin County official, stepped in and Garrison stepped out. (This seems to have been a delayed reaction to the slow-dawning realization that running an anti-gay, anti-union candidate to replace Brunner was going to be poison to the base.)

I think Garrison was probably an upgrade in terms of raw electability from Brown, but the danger of her killing support for the ticket as a whole was real. I don't really know anything about O'Shaghnessy, since she's another Columbus-area candidate. The Brunner-boosting Ohio blogs don't seem particularly thrilled, but don't seem to be prepared to sit one out the way they were with Garrison.

[ Parent ]
They were all gonna lose anyway
Can't really blame any of them.

[ Parent ]

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