Google Ads


Site Stats

AL-Gov: Davis and Byrne Lead Their Primaries

by: James L.

Tue Mar 30, 2010 at 5:46 PM EDT


Public Policy Polling (3/27-29, primary voters):

Artur Davis (D): 38
Ron Sparks (D): 28
Sam Franklin Thomas (D): 9
Undecided: 25
(MoE: ±4.9%)

Bradley Byrne (R): 27
Roy Moore (R): 23
Robert Bently (R): 10
Kay Ivey (R): 10
Tim James (R): 9
Bill Johnson (R): 1
James Potts (R): 0
Charles Taylor (R): 0
Undecided: 20
(MoE: ±4.7%)

Interestingly, not all is rosy for ArturD2 in the Democratic primary: among primary voters, Davis' favorable rating is 28-34 compared to 27-17 for Sparks. If Sparks can exploit it, Davis may have opened up a big vulnerability with his vote against healthcare reform: 80% of primary voters surveyed by PPP support the recent bill passed by Congress (compared to 14% opposed). Davis may have gambled that Sparks was incapable of riding the issue to a primary win in favor of keeping a more conservative profile for the general election, but the opportunity certainly is there for Sparks to exploit.

Meanwhile, Roy "The Ten Commandments" Moore may be the most well-known and well-liked among Republican primary voters, but he's not attracting the most support:

The fact that Moore is the most well known and liked of the GOP candidates but still trails is a sign that many voters like him but don't necessarily think Governor is the position he's best suited for.

In a field sliced and diced as widely as this one, though, you never know what may happen.

UPDATE: Hah! Check out PPP's hilarious response to accusations from the Tim James campaign that PPP was cooking their books:

James put out a press release attacking our Alabama primary poll today because it showed Barack Obama with an 84% approval rating when he only got 40% of the vote in the state in 2008. That would be a valid criticism...except for the fact that the 84% approval rating for Obama was with Democratic primary voters! Reading comprehension is evidently not one of the stronger suits of the James campaign. Nor is making sure it has its facts straight before putting out a press release.
James L. :: AL-Gov: Davis and Byrne Lead Their Primaries
Tags: , , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

Surprised Davis is running away with the Dem nod
I happen to think Sparks is probably the stronger candidate for the general. At best, I see Davis performing Ford/Corker numbers. MAX. At worst, he could probably lag below 40% with depressed Dem enthusiasm and the GOP not buying his conservative act.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Running away?
He only has a 10 point lead and he's 12 points from avoiding a run-off which would probably be pretty disastrous for him considering the difficulty in keeping black turnout numbers high.

[ Parent ]
Runoff unlikely
Davis and Sparks are likely the only two candidates.  The other guy PPP polled announced his intention to run several months ago, but it turned out he didn't meet the residency requirements I believe.

As of now, Davis and Sparks are the only filed candidates and I wouldn't expect any other to file before the deadline this Friday.


[ Parent ]
I wouldn't call a ten point lead
With a quarter of the electorate undecided as "running away with it" at all. Hopefully Sparks can pull it out. Not that I think either can probably win but it would serve Davis right for his selfish vote on HCR.

[ Parent ]
This is good news for...
This poll is good news for Sparks, not Davis.

Check out Davis' approvals with black Democrats--he's UNDERWATER at 28-38 with 35% undecided. Think about that: the state's only black Congressman has negative approvals from black voters--many of whom he's represented for years. He's actually more popular with white Dems, staying in positive territory at 31-26 with more, 42%, undecideds.  

Interestingly, fewer whites say they'll vote for him that these numbers would suggest--although more blacks seem to be choosing him than would be expected. Sparks is at 30-17 with whites and 25-15 with blacks. He's less well-known at this point (he gets 57% "Not Sure" on favorables to Davis' 38%), but the people who know him, like him.  

Look, the white dude is getting at least a quarter of the black vote...and easily could get more when black voters find out that he'd probably be an excellent governor for them, probably better than Davis, policy-wise. And he probably stands a better chance at winning the general, too.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
I want to know whether

'Artur-D2' is an SSP neologism or is actually used by some folks on Capitol Hill (or thereabouts).  :-D

[ Parent ]
I also considered Sparks more electable
in General, but he made number of errors, so - no real surprises here. In addition - the Democratic prinary electorate in Alabama is surely mire then 40% Black.

Republican primary os also goes "along predicted lines" - run-off between two leading candidates - conservative and ultraconservative


[ Parent ]
how liberal is davis personally?
is he a liberal running as a moderate conservative b/c he wants to run nationwide, or is he genuinely moderate conservative?  If he's actually liberal, why not stay in the house and run for the speakership a few terms down the line?

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

statewide not nationwide
n/t

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
He's always been pretty moderate
African-Americans in the rural South tend to be more conservative (particularly when it comes to social issues) than those in urban areas. Voting like Sheila Jackson-Lee or Bobby Rush would eventually earn the incumbent a primary challenge in a district like AL-07 -- which, of course, is how Davis won in the first place.

[ Parent ]
But His District Isn't Rural
There are some rural counties in the district, but most of the people in the district live in urban areas.

[ Parent ]
Okay then, scratch "rural"
the point still stands.

[ Parent ]
Is there a way to measure religious devotion by district?
I'd guess a higher proportion of the voters in Davis' district is religious - perhaps even conservative Baptist.

[ Parent ]
Will
we see any general numbers anytime soon. I can't remember seeing any yet.

Proud member of the Indiana Democratic Party from IN-9.  

PPP
will be releasing them tomorrow

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Sparks on HCR
I saw this video on another blog of Sparks who is apparently against healthcare reform.  I think he says one thing to one audience and another thing to another audience.   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...  

Your posting history consists entirely of bashing Sparks and calling him a panderer on HCR.
Not exactly contributing much with this.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Nice prediction
with your first anti-Sparks comment about Davis supporting the Senate bill.  How'd that work out?  Who's the panderer again?

BTW, if you are affiliated with the Davis campaign, I hope you will have the decency to say so.  Your auto pilot anti-Sparks comments suggest to me you may be.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


[ Parent ]
Yes
Normally I don't like engaging in guessing games about whether or not a poster works on a campaign, but you've posted three times over the last few months -- all criticizing Sparks and propping up Artur whenever we discuss this race. If you have an affiliation with any campaign, now's the time to tell us about it.

[ Parent ]
Still Think Davis
Still think Davis is going to win the primary or the general when black Democrats hold an unfavorable opinion of him?

And regardless of what Sparks says or hasn't said, everyone know what Davis has done, how he's voted, twice-- which is basically not had the balls to vote for something his constituents overwhelmingly want because he's trying to pander to white voters.

Look, I like Davis, he's got a good dose of that Obama-like political skill, but Sparks is a better candidate for this race. Davis should've gone for Attorney General because he could probably beat Troy "Gayface" King or Luther Strange.

And Sparks has a mustache.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
Son, loose talk about mustaches brings on the drunken elves :) n/t


Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
everything arealmic said here is spot on
Sparks could push up his own body-weight with that 'stash.

26, D, MO-05, Hispanic

[ Parent ]
Third fellow
Whether or not he meets the residency requirements, don't those numbers seem a little high?  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2


i thought way too high


[ Parent ]
Not considering that Sparks and Davis have been bashing one another for months
[ Parent ]
I'll provide the non-trollish backing of Davis
Since the other guy is probably a troll.

I used to like Sparks a lot, and I certainly have no love for Blue Dogs, especially those in deep blue districts.  But my sense is that Sparks has been gaffing all the way to the finish line.  A white statewide officeholder ought to be able to outperform a black inner-city Congressman in Alabama, no matter how sharp a politician Davis is; the fact that Sparks isn't beating Davis is a sign that Sparks' campaign is in serious trouble.  I do agree that the poll shows that Sparks still has a shot, but I'm frankly amazed he's still hanging in there.

I don't like Davis, but the guy knows how to run a campaign in a deep red state.  With Davis we have a shot at winning depending on who the Republican opponent is (either Moore or Ivey could give Davis an opening).  With Sparks, my sense is that he has no idea how to win that seat even if it were handed to him on a platter.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...


White State Office Holder vs. Inner-City Congressman
That might be true in the general, but I don't think that would be true in the Democratic primary. The PPP poll for the Democratic primary is 52% African-American, and that's where most of Davis' lead comes from.  

[ Parent ]
The numbers here
Suggest he may have pulled a Hillary. Concentrating on the general too early and creating an opening of attack for his opponent in the primary.

[ Parent ]

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


About the Site

SSP Resources

Blogroll

Powered by: SoapBlox