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Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010 - Post-Filing Deadline Edition
Thu Mar 25, 2010 at 1:03 AM EDT
With the filing deadline passed, we are beginning to see how the fields are shaping up for the 2010 elections in California. While the range of competitive House districts has narrowed considerably, I am still including all 8 Obama-Republican districts to watch their trends.
Cross-posted at Calitics and Democracy for California .
Breaking news : We now have a registration advantage in Assembly District 5 and are closing in on CA-03!
District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result CA-03 Dan Lungren 38.46% 39.04% R+0.58 O+0.5 CA-24 Elton Gallegly 35.78% 41.53% R+5.75 O+2.8 CA-25 Buck McKeon 37.42% 39.58% R+2.16 O+1.1 CA-26 David Dreier 35.64% 40.15% R+4.51 O+4.0 CA-44 Ken Calvert 34.67% 42.47% R+7.80 O+0.9 CA-45 Mary Bono Mack 38.02% 41.50% R+3.48 O+4.6 CA-48 John Campbell 29.36% 44.36% R+15.00 O+0.7 CA-50 Brian Bilbray 31.33% 39.91% R+8.58 O+4.2
Competitive and/or open state legislature districts are over the flip...
californianintexas :: Outlook for the California State Legislature in 2010 - Post-Filing Deadline Edition
Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 49 Democrats/29 Republicans/1 Independent (who is term-limited)/1 Vacant (Dem seat which will be filled before Election Day), with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.
SENATE
Republicans (4)
District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result SD-04 Sam Aanestad 32.78% 43.83% R+11.05 M+11.8 SD-12 Jeff Denham 49.13% 32.03% D+17.10 O+17.6 SD-18 Roy Ashburn 31.76% 47.36% R+15.60 M+23.1 SD-36 Dennis Hollingsworth 28.97% 45.60% R+16.63 M+14.2
Democrats (5)
District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result SD-16 Dean Florez 50.41% 32.00% D+18.41 O+19.5 SD-22 Gilbert Cedillo 58.91% 14.39% D+43.52 O+58.7 SD-24 Gloria Romero 53.53% 20.72% D+32.81 O+41.3 SD-34 Lou Correa 44.22% 32.49% D+11.73 O+16.8 SD-40 Denise Ducheny 46.47% 28.84% D+17.63 O+25.7
ASSEMBLY
Republicans (16)
District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result AD-03 Dan Logue 34.52% 39.91% R+5.39 M+1.6 AD-05 Roger Niello 38.97% 38.05% D+0.92 O+4.2 AD-25 Tom Berryhill 37.35% 41.70% R+4.35 M+7.9 AD-26 Bill Berryhill 42.35% 38.88% D+3.47 O+4.4 AD-30 Danny Gilmore 46.12% 36.12% D+10.00 O+3.9 AD-33 Sam Blakeslee 35.89% 40.47% R+4.58 O+1.4 AD-36 Steve Knight 38.92% 39.29% R+0.37 O+0.8 AD-37 Audra Strickland 35.87% 41.04% R+5.17 O+3.7 AD-38 Cameron Smyth 36.83% 39.62% R+2.79 O+4.9 AD-63 Bill Emmerson 37.96% 40.01% R+2.05 O+4.1 AD-64 Brian Nestande 36.08% 41.95% R+5.87 O+1.8 AD-65 Paul Cook 36.91% 41.29% R+4.38 M+4.1 AD-68 Van Tran 32.78% 40.78% R+8.00 M+2.9 AD-70 Chuck DeVore 30.12% 42.93% R+12.81 O+3.9 AD-74 Martin Garrick 30.88% 41.17% R+10.29 O+2.2 AD-75 Nathan Fletcher 30.64% 39.58% R+8.94 O+4.1
Democrats (15)
District Incumbent DEM GOP Margin 2008 Result AD-07 Noreen Evans 52.94% 23.47% D+29.47 O+43.3 AD-09 Dave Jones 56.92% 18.55% D+38.37 O+49.0 AD-10 Alyson Huber 39.41% 39.18% D+0.23 O+4.0 AD-15 Joan Buchanan 40.65% 35.70% D+4.95 O+16.9 AD-20 Alberto Torrico 48.74% 19.90% D+28.84 O+42.3 AD-21 Ira Ruskin 47.61% 26.40% D+21.21 O+45.8 AD-23 Joe Coto 51.59% 18.60% D+32.99 O+44.4 AD-31 Juan Arambula 50.40% 32.35% D+18.05 O+26.1 AD-35 Pedro Nava 48.03% 27.56% D+20.47 O+35.6 AD-47 Karen Bass 64.89% 11.14% D+53.75 O+71.9 AD-50 Hector De La Torre 61.99% 15.82% D+46.17 O+55.9 AD-76 Lori Saldaña 41.94% 26.52% D+15.42 O+34.4 AD-78 Martin Block 42.97% 30.97% D+12.00 O+21.8 AD-80 Manuel Perez 45.74% 35.25% D+10.49 O+20.7
Tags:
CA-50 ,
CA-48 ,
CA-45 ,
CA-44 ,
CA-26 ,
CA-25 ,
CA-24 ,
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California Assembly ,
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