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SSP Daily Digest: 3/25 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Thu Mar 25, 2010 at 8:03 AM EDT


  • FL-Sen: Charlie Crist has launched his first TV ad of the campaign, hitting Marco Rubio for being a lobbyist. Dunno that Crist has the cred to make these attacks stick. Rubio's firing back with an ad that ties Crist to Obama (something that's more easily done).
  • LA-Sen: Hah! Awesome! GOP Sen. Tom Coburn, hoping to force Dems into an uncomfortable vote, wants to offer an amendment to the healthcare reconciliation bill that would prohibit insurance coverage of Viagra for convicted sex offenders. The Louisiana Democratic Party put out a press release saying that surely Coburn "would agree that anyone who has admitted or been found guilty of involvement with prostitution should not be covered either." Zing! Meanwhile, in an act of extreme bravery, Rep. Charlie Melancon says he doesn't support repealing healthcare reform.
  • NV-Sen: As Las Vegas Now puts: "It has not been a pleasant two weeks for United State Senate hopeful Jon Scott Ashjian. Three of his personal properties have been served with default notices, his Nevada Tea Party supporters will not come to his aid and national party leaders have denounced him as a fraud." Click the link for all the details.
  • WA-Sen: Yesterday we learned that Dino Rossi got jiggy with Michael Steele. Now it turns out that he also paid a visit to NRSC HQ. Wonder if he'll bite.
  • AL-Gov: As in Georgia (see GA-12 item below), several leaders of the Alabama African American community are unhappy with Artur Davis's vote against healthcare reform. State Sen. Hank Sanders of Selma sent an open letter to Artur Davis, criticizing his decision, and TV host Roland Martin also expressed displeasure, saying that Davis "was elected to represent the people in his district in Congress, not a future position that he may or may not get."
  • NY-Gov: Newly-minted Republican Parker Griffith may have supported Howard Dean, but even more newly-minted Republican Steve Levy supports... single-payer healthcare insurance? Oh yes, according to a Working Families Party survey he filled out in 2007. Michael Long will be sooo pleased. (H/t Darth Jeff)
  • PA-Gov: Philly Mayor Michael Nutter will endorse state Sen. Anthony Williams in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. This gives Williams, who just joined the race and trails in the polls, a big shot in the arm, especially if Nutter puts his full machine behind him. (Williams has done quite well in the money race, though, outraising some of his better-known competitors.)
  • AR-03: A Republican candidate with the perversely appropriate name of Gunner DeLay is calling for "civil disobedience" against healthcare reform. Just what we needed - more incitement, from a former prosecutor, no less. I guess DeLay is trying to make amends for his pro-union past as a state senator.
  • GA-07: Another Republican is jumping into the field to succeed GOP Rep. John Linder: his former chief of staff, Rob Woodall. He joins state Rep. Clay Cox and Walton County businessman Tom Kirby.
  • GA-09: The special election date to fill Nathan Deal's seat has been moved from April 27th to May 11th (run-off: June 8th), in order to give military and overseas voters enough time to submit their ballots.
  • GA-12: Dem Rep. John Barrow is definitely feeling some heat over his "no" vote on healthcare. Black political leaders, who had generally supported Barrow over the years, are very unhappy with him and are either pulling their endorsements or switching over to his primary opponent, Regina Thomas. African Americans make up a third of the district's population and approximately 60% of Dem primary voters. Thomas, though, got pasted in a 2008 effort to defeat Barrow and has chump change in her campaign account.
  • IL-11: GOPer Adam Kinzinger hasn't gotten the memo, apparently, because he's going full steam ahead on repealing healthcare reform. The responses to this are so easy it's ridiculous - which is why Rep. Debbie Halvorson in turn accused Kinzinger of wanting to repeal protections against pre-existing conditions. We could do this all day.
  • IN-09: A Wilson Research Strategies poll for Republican Mike Sodrel shows him very competitive with Rep. Baron Hill, trailing by just a 43-42 margin. Sodrel also tested the GOP primary, where he looks very strong. He has 46%, compared to 19 for activist Travis Hankins and 13 for attorney Todd Young. (Young is on the NRCC's Young Guns list.) The poll was conducted a few weeks ago, before the healthcare reform vote.
  • MD-01: How much does a vote against healthcare reform get you? Dem Rep. Frank Kratovil is going to find out. Despite Kratovil's two "no" votes, his opponent Andy Harris is charging: "This is Nancy Pelosi's bill. Her fingerprints are all over it, and Frank Kratovil enabled Nancy Pelosi to be in the position where she is now." If this line of attack sticks, it'll show that cringe politics rarely works.
  • PA-03: Dem Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper's Some Dude primary opponent, Mel Marin, filed a challenge to keep Dahlkemper off the ballot - and just got his challenge rejected. Supposedly he'll appeal.
  • PA-07: The SEIU has backed Dem Bryan Lentz in his bid to win the open 7th CD against GOPer Pat Meehan.
  • SD-AL: Even though he declined to challenge Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin himself, Steve Hildebrand is trying to help Dr. Kevin Weiland qualify for the Democratic primary. Weiland has to submit 1,250 signatures in just one week's time, though.
  • DNC: The DNC is trying out a new message, airing radio ads which ask voters to tell their Republican congressmen: "Hands off our healthcare!" Be very curious to see if these draw any blood - or if this message continues to see use.
  • Healthcare: SEIU is spending $700K on ads thanking Dems in tough districts for their "yes" votes on healthcare: Tom Periello (VA-05), Dina Titus (NV-03), Betsy Markey (CO-04), John Boccieri (OH-16), Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-03) and Earl Pomeroy (ND-AL). The local New York chapter will also air ads thanking Scott Murphy (NY-20), Bill Owens (NY-23), Dan Maffei (NY-25), Tim Bishop (NY-01) and Steve Israel (NY-02).
  • DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 3/25 (Morning Edition)
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    GA-12
    For GA-12, I'll rely on the words of the great UGA Political Science Professor, Dr. Charles Bullock:

    "If he voted how liberals want, he'd no longer be in Congress," Bullock said. "If Democrats like him no longer were, (Democrat) Nancy Pelosi wouldn't be speaker and African Americans would have much less influence."

    Also, I think another piece from the article that is very, very interesting is Thomas' response about HCR:

    "Thomas said she "probably" would have voted for the health bill, which she called "not perfect but better than nothing."


    I'm not sure I buy that
    GA-12 does have a democratic-leaning PVI after all.  It's not one of those typical wingnut rural districts in the south like those that Bobby Bright, Travis Childers, or Gene Taylor represent.  The guy doesn't need to vote like a conservative to get elected there.

    Seems like this prof is a bit pessimistic to me.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13


    [ Parent ]
    Well
    PVI can be quite deceiving in the South. GA-02 has a Democratic-leaning PVI, but anyone who knows the district will (or should) say it's conservative-leaning. GA-12 might not be a "wingnut" (your word, not mine) district, but black voters have supported Barrow's conservative record before, so he must be doing something right. A lot of these voters are socially conservative / economically populist. Barrow can tout the federal money he's secured for the district over the years.

    Some of these areas are ancestrally Democratic. Also, in regards to GA-12, black turnout was sky-high in 2008. I doubt it'll be nearly as high this time around.

    One more thing, I'm not sure anyone is giving Thomas a chance in the General, which would give credence to the idea that the district is conservative-leaning. Thomas might luck up and make it out of the Primary, but she'd have no chance in November.

    It's either a mainstream Georgia Democrat like Barrow, or a very conservative Republican.

    Personally, if I'm a voter in the district, I want a member who's been in here a few terms, thereby building some seniority, and a member of the majority party. A vote for Thomas in the Primary translates to a vote for a minority party freshman in November, if Thomas is the Democratic nomine.

    Dr. Bullock knows his stuff. Has he been wrong before? Of course, though it's not often.


    [ Parent ]
    Dr. Bullock is behind the times
    Sure this is by no means a safe Democratic district but it would support a much more progressive candidate than Barrow. Obama won this district and he's far more progressive than Barrow. Barrow has regularly made lists of Democrats vulnerable to a primary challenge and it's beyond time he felt some heat.

    [ Parent ]
    GA-12 is 45% African-American
    Not the third that is referenced in the original citation above.

    It is only 51% white (non-Hispanic white, to reference precise census language)

    In terms of southern politics, there is a huge difference between between a district being 33% black and being 45% black.

    I am surprised that Barrow thinks it is wise to attempt to secure conservative votes to win re-election -- in a district where Obama won 54%, clearly one need not tack too far right to win.

    But Barrow vote has endangered his re-election in two critical ways. First, he opens himself up to a very serious primary challenge. Second, even if he wins renomination, he will face a general election with a base that is unenthusiastic about supporting him. In a district where a Democrat needs a strong African-American turnout to win, he can't afford indifference among these core Democratic voters.

    I strongly suspect he will end up losing the primary if Jackson gets in -- and that this will still be a Democratic hold in November.


    [ Parent ]
    Is Thomas Going to Remain the Main Challenger?
    McArdle has a piece in CQ today saying she might be replaced by state senator Lester Jackson (Thomas would then run for Jackson's seat). The article also mentions Michael Thurmond as a potential challenger.

    [ Parent ]
    Jackson would be a hug get
    He seems like much more of a serious threat. Michael Thurmond doesn't live in the district anymore he's from Athens BTW.

    [ Parent ]
    So Sodrel's GOP poll
    Has him trailing but FDL had him winning by 8 points? I am not surprised.

    Who has less credibility?
    FDL or Rassmussen?

    [ Parent ]
    SurveyUSA was the one who carried it out
    While FDL wrote the (pretty bad) questions the horserace numbers are 100% SurveyUSAs responsibility.

    21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



    [ Parent ]
    They never put them up on their website
    Like every other media poll. So they knew all along something was fishy.

    [ Parent ]
    CA-Gov/Sen: Whitman up 5 on Brown, Fiorina takes lead for GOP nod, Boxer dead heat vs. Campbell/Fiorina
    More concered with S than G
    Though Fiorina taking the lead is encouraging, particularly if DeVore drops out and endorses her. I think the Whitman camp would be seriously worried if they hadn't moved into a lead after spending all that money. I continue to believe both will go D in the end.

    [ Parent ]
    Do any recent CA poll show ethnic crosstabs?
    I'm wondering what's happening with Hispanic support for Ds in CA.

    [ Parent ]
    Good question
    Field had a 54-25 lead for Jerry Brown.

    [ Parent ]
    Hopefully, Thomas can parlay this into something.
    And send the Republican in Democrats' clothing home.

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    Unlikely, to put it mildly
    But stranger things happened....

    [ Parent ]
    Anybody else getting the feeling Ben Nelson might bail on the Dems?
    He's not voting with us on ANYTHING any more.  He voted with the Republicans on the vast majority of their bogus amendments last night.  He voted against jobs.  He will probably vote against financial reform.

    Not sure it would be a terrible thing.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    It would be a terrible thing
    If the GOP won enough seats for his flipping to matter.

    [ Parent ]
    I think he knows the GOP would't embrace him
    He voted for the stimulus and for HCR when it really mattered.  Yes, he watered them down, but look at the hostility toward Parker Griffith who voted against both.  I think Nelson realizes he would be dead meat in a GOP primary.  


    21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



    [ Parent ]
    They would welcome him
    With open arms...until the 2012 Nebraska GOP primary.

    [ Parent ]
    Unless he's not planning to run again he'll see the imminent primary
    Though something I just thought of: if Specter wins the primary could it convince others that they can safety switch?


    21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



    [ Parent ]
    Specter is also a long-time incumbent in a swingy state
    Ben Nelson isn't exactly a long time incumbent nor is Nebraska a swing state (at any possible level).

    Thus Specter's position is fundamentally different from Parker Griffith's position (or the hypothetical position of Ben Nelson).

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    Specter also used to be a Dem
    I think the main thing we can talk from him beating Sestak would be that Democrats are open to a wider breadth of opinion.

    [ Parent ]
    Well, that and the fact that the White House and the state party are backing him up
    I doubt that Nelson would get anywhere close to the same consideration from the state Nebraska party.

    Politics and Other Random Topics

    24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


    [ Parent ]
    Really?
    There are plenty of examplse fo Reps who switch to Dem and lost primaries.

    Congressman Michael Forbes of NY is one who comes to mind. He lost his Dem primary after he flipped to a 71 year old librarian.

    Sen Ben Campbell switch from Dem to GOP and was re-elected handily. Richard Shelby used to be a Democrat and now he is such a conservative Republican that people forget. (How many of us remember that Shelby actually voted against confirmation of Robert Bork?)

    Once a tiger changes his stripes the hardest sell is always that 1st re-election bid. But after that it is usually smooth sailing with most people forgetting that the guy used to vote very differently.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    I'm not talking about the past
    I'm talking about the current incarnation of the parties. Are you seriously telling me Parker Griffith is likely to win his primary and Specter isn't?

    [ Parent ]
    No of course not
    I was just saying it is not so cut and dry. A lot of it depends on the reaction to the switch and that can always be unpredictable.

    If Lieberman switched to the GOP I am sure they would welcome him with open arms.

    Also I think if Griffith timed his switch better and if it came in the midst of the HCR debate as away to put pressure on Dems to vote against it many in the GOP would have viewed him as a hero. Just like so many on the right wing blogs were singing Stupak's praises until back down & decided to vote for HCR.

    Griffith's problem I think is that his switch looked too politically opportunistic.

    Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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    [ Parent ]
    He was Gov 1991-1999
    Doesn't make him a long time incumbent but it does make him a long-time statewide office holder (though not as long as Spector).

    Their situations are obviously very different.  Still, I do wonder if some aspiring politician won't look at a Spector win and think that if he could successfully switch they can too.    

    21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



    [ Parent ]
    Well, they did pull the special Nebraska thing
    So given the numbers associated with reconciliation, it makes sense for Nelson to seem like such a R (for now) on HCR.

    [ Parent ]
    I hope so


    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    [ Parent ]
    I hope not
    Especially if the count is 50-50 in December with or without Lieberman.

    [ Parent ]
    Huh
    Who cares about numbers? Purity is obviously more important. Apparently we have a few who adhere to the Jim DeMint philosophy of having a minority that is ideologically pure and out of touch with no shot at influencing anything, instead of a majority with differing opinions that struggles but can actually do something once in awhile.

    [ Parent ]
    I cited numbers
    Because people should be careful what they wish for. And there is huge middle-ground between your black and white extremes.

    [ Parent ]
    Um
    It was a joke, hence the use of the extremes. Thanks for the explanation though.

    [ Parent ]
    Ah
    Must switch my snark antena back on.

    [ Parent ]
    I know that's snark
    But are you seriously suggesting that Ben Nelson is in touch?

    WTF, dude.


    [ Parent ]
    Yes, I am getting that feeling
    FWIW, I think the only question now is when a Republican occupies that seat.  

    [ Parent ]
    Agreed
    Not to be pessimistic, but I expect it to flip in 2012 because I strongly anticipate Nelson will retire.

    [ Parent ]
    FWIW
    I strongly anticipate that too.  The Republican bench in Nebraska is so strong right now that someone will be able to knock him off in 2012, especially now that he is associated with shady backroom deals - and yes, I think that stink will stay with him that long.

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

    [ Parent ]
    He'll be 71 in 2012
    Retirement is probably on the cards.

    [ Parent ]
    I think Nelson was only voting with the Dems
    because of the pressure involved in being the 60th vote for all the cloture motions. Now that that's gone, he feels free to vote however he wants. Remember, he's always been the most conservative Dem in the Senate, often to the right of Snowe.

    Either way, it doesn't matter, because I don't think he will run again in 2012. Probably Heineman will cruise into the seat.


    [ Parent ]
    He did
    vote against Bob Bennett's stupid anti-DC marriage equality amendment...which, btw, Scott Brown voted for. Hope all those gay voters in JP and South End remember that in 2012 :)

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    [ Parent ]
    I live in JP
    believe me, that's not where our problem was.

    From MO-3, college in CT-3, lived in NH-1, NH-2, PA-2, and MA-8 in the 3 years since.

    [ Parent ]
    Frankly, I'm most impressed/surprised Lieberman voted for reconcilation


    For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

    [ Parent ]
    IL-11
    is Kinzinger stupid? Primary's over, buddy...

    21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
    please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


    GA-Gov/ GA-AG: AG Baker refuses to sue over HCR, Gov Perdue announces "special AG"
    http://washingtonindependent.c...

    First, is this legal?

    Second, getting into a fight with Perdue could conceivably help Baker in the Democratic primary for Gov.  He's long been seen as too conservative, but this and standing up to pressure to sue could give him some good press.  

    21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



    What?
    Since when has Baker "long been seen as too conservative"? Please, please cite something to back that up from a reputable source. Unless I am completely missing something, Baker's actually coming at this from a fiscally conservative point of view.

    As far as the Primary goes, it'll give him some good press. Barnes, Porter, and Poythress have been all throughout the state in recent months. Baker's been seen in some of the larger cities, but that's about it, so this will give him some small town press.


    [ Parent ]
    I remember his handling of the Genarlow Wilson case pissed of a fair share of people
    That was seen as unnecessarily tough if I remember right.  

    That's the main thing I'd heard of Baker and I thought I remembered hearing other complaints about him being too conservative.  But being from Georgia you'd know better than me.  

    21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



    [ Parent ]
    Wilson
    Ah, I thought you meant his general positions.

    Yeah, you're right about the Wilson case, though I might be in the minority on this, I don't consider it a case of him being too conservative. He simply felt he was following his duties at AG.

    He's been an overwhelmingly popular AG (at least as far as his electoral victories), so I'd say he's very mainstream.


    [ Parent ]
    Baker should respond
    by appointing a "special governor" to tend to the needs of the citizens of georgia, not teabaggers crying about socialism.

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

    [ Parent ]
    appointing should have been in quotes
    to denote the sarcasm

    Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

    [ Parent ]
    Murray up 52-41 on Rossi
    http://www.dailykos.com/storyo...

    Given the source it is probably a bit closer than that but still no way near as bad as Rasmussen suggests.


    For GOPVOTER
    55-28 over Paul Akers.

    [ Parent ]
    I first read that
    comment as Paul Anka rather than Paul Akers and wondered why he was running for the GOP.

    [ Parent ]
    If it were Paul Anka
    the numbers would be reversed.  Once he sang "You're Having My Baby" a few times on the campaign trail, Murray herself might vote for him.

    One of the great schlock artists of all time.  Right there with Tom Jones and Wayne Newton.  

    34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


    [ Parent ]
    Not the same Anka
    We had on here sharing pearls of wisdom a few weeks back. I take it.

    [ Parent ]
    WA Research 2000 poll
    Reserach 2000 polling in WA has been more reliable than Rasmussen and I tend to trust their numbers that Murray would beat either Rossi or Reichert. If Rasmussen polls were determinative, Rossi would be Washington's governor today.

    What are pollsters doing about likely voter screens in WA now that, like Oregon, WA has switched to vote by mail and turnout percentages have jumped in all demographics? What about cell only voters estimated to be about 18% of Washington's electorate?



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