It's a pretty intuitive, if simple list

Here's where I rate these seats as of baseline analysis:

Ann Kirkpatrick, AZ-1     - likely D
Harry E. Mitchell, AZ-5   - lean D
Gabrielle Giffords, AZ-8  - likely D
John Salazar, CO-3        - likely D
Betsy Markey, CO-4        - tossup (projected rep pickup)
Allen Boyd, FL-2          - likely D
Suzanne M. Kosmas, FL-24  - lean D
Baron P. Hill, IN-9       - tossup
Earl Pomeroy, ND-AL       - lean D
Charlie Wilson, OH-6      - solid D
John Boccieri, OH-16      - lean D
Kathy Dahlkemper, PA-3    - likely D
Christopher Carney, PA-10 - lean D
John M. Spratt, Jr., SC-5 - likely D
Tom Perriello, VA-5       - tossup (projected rep pickup)
Alan B. Mollohan, WV-1    - lean D
Nick J. Rahall, WV-3      - solid D

A couple of things to point out.  Since Palin has crafted the list via a very cut and dry criteria, it leaves out all the little nuances you see in local voting patterns.  I don't get the feeling that Rahall is in any danger in WV.  Ditto for Wilson in OH, as his district is usually democratic but simply rejected Obama.  Kirkpatrick, Giffords, and Mitchell had to deal with a "McCain bounce" in Arizona this past election, so I think their danger is overstated as well.

Dahlkemper hasn't drawn any serious opposition, neither has Boyd, and Spratt is a longstanding stalwart in a place where the local GOP is very unpopular.  So it's hard to see any of those three going down.  The others on this list though could all be vulnerable.  Obviously, Markey, Hill, and Perriello are in the most danger, as their districts are very conservative and the vote for HCR probably isn't a popular one where they come from.  Pomeroy is going to take some serious heat, and he's got Hoeven leading the ticket, so I'd be wary of poll numbers on him.  Carney and Boccieri are probably the 5th and 6th most vulnerable if I had to rank them.

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

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by: StephenCLE @ Wed Mar 24, 2010 at 16:53:17 PM UTC

This only HELPS those DEMOCRATS she's "targeting"......

Palin might as well host fundraisers for those Democrats as to "target" them, because the only effect of her "targeting" is to provide the Democratic incumbents a fundraising boon.  I hope they're all smart enough to use this immediately and as much as possible in every fundraising appeal.

Palin is despised by the left, disliked by the middle, and loved only by the right and not even all of them.  She can't move votes in these races, she can only move money into Democratic incumbents' pockets.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Wed Mar 24, 2010 at 17:36:16 PM UTC