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SSP Daily Digest: 3/23 (Morning Edition)

by: DavidNYC

Tue Mar 23, 2010 at 7:57 AM EDT


  • FL-08: Former hospital administrator Peg Dunmire has left the Republican Party and will officially challenge Alan Grayson as a member of Florida's new Tea Party.
  • GA-09: The special election for Nathan Deal's now-vacant seat has been set for April 27th. This is an all-party "jungle" election, with the winner needing 50% to win. If no one hits that mark, a runoff would be held on May 25th. With 11 Republicans and only one Democrat (former Navy chaplain Mike Freeman) running, is it completely insane to imagine...? Also note that Georgia has a "resign to run" rule, so folks who hold other offices will have to quit before getting into this race, setting off a domino chain of further special elections.
  • IN-05: Former state Rep. Luke Messer is on the air with a biographical tv spot. He's one of several Republicans challenging Rep. Dan Burton in the primary.
  • MA-05: Seven Republicans and four independents have lined up so far to take on Dem Rep. Niki Tsongas. Scott Brown won this district 56-43 in January.
  • NY-13: The Brooklyn Conservative Party has endorsed former FBI agent Mike Grimm. This has touched off another fight with Staten Island Conservatives who, as they did in 2008, seem inclined to endorse Democratic Rep. Mike McMahon. But back then, the Brooklyn Cons (who represent a much smaller part of the district) engineered a coup at the state party level with the backing of chair Michael Long in order to thwart the will of their SI counterparts. It looks like the same might happen again this cycle.
  • OK-05: SoonerPoll.com surveyed the GOP primary for the open 5th CD, which Rep. Mary Fallin is leaving to run for governor. They find former state Rep. Ken Calvey leading with 20, while state Rep. Mike Thompson is at 9 and "political newcomer" James Lankford is at 7. State Rep. Shane Jett, who just joined the field, was not included.
  • PA-04: Could Jason Altmire get Arcuri'd? Thanks to his vote against the healthcare reform bill, Jack Shea, the president of the Allegheny County Labor Council, says he's considering a primary challenge. The problem is that Pennsylvania's filing deadline closed earlier this month, so Shea would have to run as a write-in. Alternately, he could run as an independent (indies have a much later filing deadline).
  • PA-19: Rep. Todd Platts is expected to be on a shortlist of four possible names to fill the top spot at the Government Accountability Office. The House and Senate are compiling this list and will send it to the White House "soon." President Obama can then select a nominee from this slate, or pick his own. Either way, his choice is subject to confirmation in the Senate.
  • RI-01: Retired Superior Court Judge Roy Pfeiffer is weighing a run for the now-open 1st CD as a Republican. The GOP actually already has a candidate here, state Rep. John Loughlin.
  • SD-AL: I'm unsurprised - Obama strategist Steve Hildebrand says he won't challenge Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin in the Dem primary, even though she voted against healthcare reform.
  • TN-08: Roy Herron will have the Democratic field to himself: Educator and former John Tanner staffer Luther Mercer has dropped out, citing difficulties in fundraising. On the, well, non-Dem side, meanwhile, the knives are out for GOP frontrunner Stephen Fincher.  Teabaggy independent Donn Janes is slamming Fincher for claiming to want to cut DC spending despite having been a big beneficiary of farm subsidies.
  • VA-05: Ex-Rep. Virgil Goode will appear at a fundraiser on the 25th for state Sen. Rob Hurt, who is seeking to reclaim Goode's seat for the Republicans. Hurt is the establishment favorite in this race, but the teabaggers truly seem to hate him and are determined not to let him win the primary. So it remains to be seen whether Goode can sprinkle him with winger fairy dust, or befoul him with DC stink lines.
  • WY-AL: Democrats have found a candidate to take on freshman Cynthia Lummis: David Wendt, president of the Jackson Hole Center for Global Affairs. Wendt specifically cited Lummis's vote against the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, and also congressional inaction on emissions, as reasons for his run.
  • Polltopia: The boys at PPP are choosing between AL, IL, MD & WA for their next poll, and you can go over there to vote. I can also tell you that R2K will have a WA poll out this week (as well as polls in AR and WI).
  • Passings: Fred Heineman, a one term congressman from North Carolina, passed away this past weekend at the age of 80. The Republican Heineman beat Dem Rep. David Price in the 1994 Republican Revolution, but Price won his seat right back in 1996. Heineman's brief tenure had a lot to do with how mind-bogglingly clueless he was, most infamously remarking:

    "When I see a first-class individual who makes $80,000 a year, he's lower middle class. When I see someone who is making anywhere from $300,000 to $750,000, that's middle class. When I see anyone above that, that's upper middle class.
  • DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 3/23 (Morning Edition)
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    I want to see Maryland polled
    but it's in last place. Sigh.

    Also, it's interesting to see Goode giving his teabaggy friends the finger by supporting Hurt.


    I have no interest in Alabama,
    and yet it's leading the pack.  

    [ Parent ]
    And i prefer exactly Alabama
    I like Bobby Bright)))

    [ Parent ]
    I'm for Illinois
    R2K is polling WA soon and I don't care about AL or MD.

    [ Parent ]
    While i - do
    And i have seen more then enough Illinois polls, so i don't want to see any more for couple of month

    [ Parent ]
    I'm with you on AL
    Of these, Alabama has by far the most interesting races--not only Bobby Bright (whom I predict is going to kick the crap out of Martha Roby), but there's also Parker Griffith's craziness and the governor's race, which has both interesting primaries and general election possibilities to test.

    Maryland's not that competitive, Patty Murray will be fine against whatever no-name she ends up facing, and if Pat Quinn loses to Brady, he deserves it. And it's too early on Giannoulias-Kirk, we won't learn anything we don't already know...

    Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


    [ Parent ]
    I wonder
    Why is Pennsylvania not on the list.  In addition to the Senate race (which is a blowout in either direction depending on which pollsters you believe in), you've got 4 competitive house races in PA-6, PA-7, PA-11, PA-12 and PA-15 that we haven't seen any polling on yet.  And that's just scratching the surface.  The Keystone State is perhaps the most critical in the whole nation this cycle, outside of perhaps Ohio, (and maybe Florida and Texas b/c of the governor's races there if you believe that Sink and/or White can win.) and it's amazing to me that we've seen little to no polling whatsoever here outside of the Senate race.

    23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

    I think part of the problem with polling PA
    is that none of the Democratic candidates are really known, so you wind up with an absurdly high unknown/unsure, and individual numbers in the teens or lower.  This also hurts any head to head comparisons.

    Maybe a late April/Early May poll (before the May primary) will be useful, but until then, I don't think PA polls (outside the senate race) really tell us much.


    [ Parent ]
    RE: GA-09 YES WE CAN!

    Thanks for the shout out! Mike is raking it in on ActBlue and we have yet to tap the vast expanse of blogosphere cash so please consider a donation so the folks in GA can shock the world!

    Disclosure: As I have stated before I am the Finance Director for Mike.



    It would take much more
    then simply "shocking the world" to win THIS district. I doubt that Jesus Christ on Democratic lime could defeat Satan on Republican here))))

    [ Parent ]
    Yup, all the devilish R would have to do
    is point out Jesus' experiences as a "community organizer".

    [ Parent ]
    Haha irony...
    Mike is a retired Episcopal minister...

    [ Parent ]
    BTW, about Republican candidates in district
    (which are, regretfully, are more likely to win) - who is at least "somewhat normal" here? I perfectly understand that it's Georgia and they are all conservatives, but still - there must be a glimpse of sanity in someone))))

    [ Parent ]
    None
    The only moderate running is Mike honestly. The two elected Republicans candidates in the race just voted to ban HCR in the state legislature.

    [ Parent ]
    Thats part of our strategy actually
    Mike hopes to pick up the scraps between a bloody match between all the extremely conservative Republican candidates and appear as the only sane person to choose from.

    [ Parent ]
    I can't send money,
    but i wish you a success.

    [ Parent ]
    speaking of which
    Is Freeman playing up the religion in his life?

    As much as I dislike the idea, I understand it's a necessary part of Ds who win in the deep South. Landrieu and Pryor strike me as two Ds who play up their religious feelings to good political effect.


    [ Parent ]
    He always mentions it
    I think in a certain settings he would campaign using that.

    [ Parent ]
    What's the R+ rating on this district?
    Didn't the same scenario occur in the Athens district a few years back (large number of candidates against one D)?    

    [ Parent ]
    No there were 3 Democrats running in 2007
    The 9th is a R+28 but like I've said before with only one Democrat running whose the only sane candidate in the special election Mike stands a good chance of making it to the run-off unscathed while picking up support from disaffected Republicans.  

    [ Parent ]
    Rand Paul moneybomb
    http://www.randpaul2010.com/

    $2.1 million so far and it's barely past noon on the east coast. Yowza, he sure is making Trey Grayson look incompetent.


    Impressive...
    pretty smart to do this just after HCR passed. Conservatives are foaming at the mouth.    

    [ Parent ]
    That's overall
    That $2.1 million is the amount he has raised to date, today he raised about $150,000 in this money bomb.

    God, I really hope Grayson beats him, Rand will best-case-senario be a one-term senator. His freakshow liberatarian politics dosen't suit socially-conservative kentucky. We're throwing this seat away with Rand.


    [ Parent ]
    Oh, my bad
    Still, $150k+ is pretty impressive.

    [ Parent ]
    It's worth mentioning
    that if the Republicans run the table in Senate races this cycle, there will definitely be a couple of new GOP Senators who will vote sometimes, or even often, with Democrats.  The most significant one is Tom Campbell, who may vote with Dems as often as, say, Mary Landrieu votes with Republicans.  Others include Rand Paul (on foreign policy issues) and Charlie Crist (in the unlikely event he wins his primary).  Plus we can't forget Scott Brown, who's already making waves in this regard.  Mike Castle is also rather moderate, but I doubt he'll be voting much with Dems since he hasn't in the House.

    The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

    [ Parent ]
    Georgia special elections
    The General Assembly adjourns sine die soon.  The National Conference of State Legislatures says late March (http://www.ncsl.org/?tabid=18630).  If that's the case, they may just let any vacated state legislature seats stay open until the general election.

    Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

    FL-19 Will Obama's break with Isreal hurt Ted Deutch?
    OK if Deutch lose this it will be a bigger upset than Scott Brown's win but Republican Ed Lynch is trying to get some milage out of the fact that Ted Deutch won't critize the Obama adminstration for the current crisis in U.S.-Israel relations.

    FL-19 has the highest percentage of Jewish voters in the country. A lot of them are upset at Obama for coming down so hard on Israel for building in Jerusalem.

    This puts Deutch in a tight spot. Does he side with Obama's get tough approach to Israel? Does he support what Obama's doing?

    It's a headache I am sure he doesn't need in an election in a D+15 district.


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    May be a small headache but not much I'd guess
    For one think I doubt Lynch has the resources to get his message out.  For another there a probably quite a few non-Jewish Democrats voting who won't be motivated by this.  Also many Jews are pro-Israel but don't like Bibi (I'm one of them).  And Deutch has some good connections with the Jewish community and a good track record on Israel which should stand up fine.  

    All in all if the "Obama listens to anti-Israel advisors" rumors from 2008 weren't enough to swing most votes I doubt this will.

    21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



    [ Parent ]
    small headache yes...
    Like Bibi or not, to many in Israel and the Jewish community the issue is "Is Jerusalem the Capital of Israel? If it is why dont they have the right to build what they like in their own Capitol without interference from the US government."

    If this was the general I would say no big deal. But remember this is a special election and specials are all about turnout. The question really is will dissatisfaction with Obama's handling of Israel keep some jewish Democrats away from he polls?

    Lynch I think will fan the flames of this (and GOP anger over HCR) and try to pull an upset. I dont think it will happened but I think at the very least its worth watching.

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    [ Parent ]
    concern troll much?
    and this isn't even a logical concern like most of your other ones.  This is one where you are just basically putting it out of your ass.  Any rational politician (which Im assuming Deutch is) would certainly campaign on a more pro-Israel policy than this government already allows.

    [ Parent ]
    Couple of interesting polls
    USA Today/Gallup - HCR now 49-40 favorable. Obama job approval at 51.

    http://www.usatoday.com/news/w...

    Democracy Corps - Independents move away from Republicans.

    http://www.democracycorps.com/...


    question i hope someone can answer
    Where can I find out what districts are VRA protected and in what way (majority vs plurality).  I've tried to find it and I can't and I want to know for redistricting TX.

    Any chance of another contest soon?  I'm having quite a bit of fun with Dallas and Houston!  

    Gonna have fun with LA/OC tomorrow if the internet works.



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